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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano will at least return in September when the minor league season is over, assuming he is healthy.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler is out of options. (I think he was eligible for a 4th option last year, but I think that goes away after the year even though we didn't use it.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the latest in a very frustrating sequence of pitching transactions. 1. Signing Belisle 2. Optioning Romero after a bad start from Odorizzi, and not even using the demotion to limit Romero's innings 3. Optioning Mejia after a bad start from Lynn (after Mejia wasn't too bad in Chicago, especially considering the conditions), and basically ensuring Mejia would miss at least the next 2 turns of the MLB rotation 4. Recalling Littell for pen duty when he has never relieved and he hasn't been particularly great this season 5. Now optioning Moya despite the fact he has been great at Rochester and in his first game back in MLB and he is rested, just because you need yet another starter and you can't part with Belisle I am under no illusions that a different sequence of transactions would have us back in the playoff race or anything, but this has been a really inexplicable way to run the club.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Lynn probably needs a good rest of July to possibly get a Huascar Ynoa type. Maybe a Littell/Enns if we eat the salary. Pressly only has one more year of control (2019). He'll make a few million and he's been inconsistent for a long time, so it's hard to peg his value.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Careful with dWAR and Defense at Fangraphs, as they also include the positional adjustment. Might be better just to look at Rfield or Fielding Runs by position.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the research! Curious about the effect of defense? Maybe including FanGraphs WAR (based on FIP) would have been interesting additional info? And actually, if you are lazy like me, you could use FanGraphs RA9-WAR too, as a substitute for B-Ref WAR, and largely skip B-Ref.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you take what you can get at this point. Lux is posting a 151 wRC+ at high-A right now, so maybe his bat develops a bit better than Gordon? Gordon only had a 112 at that level, and still hasn't really exceeded that over a full season. Plus, Lux doesn't even have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2020 season, so you'd have a lot of time with him as a nonroster asset to trade if our MLB infield solidifies as hoped. Not that I think the Dodgers would even offer Lux for Dozier right now, though, unless Dozier starts one of his hot streaks very soon. I guess Dozier could be an August trade candidate now too...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The guy who wrote that article was the Mets GM who traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    They're not really limiting Romero's innings down there yet. Still a questionable demotion.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Worked perfectly for me. I loaded it in Chrome on my computer, and clicked the cast icon to send it to my Chromecast plugged into the TV. Then I shut the computer off. I think you can likewise cast from the Facebook app on a phone or tablet too. I bet watching the video within Facebook is problematic because of all the other stuff that Facebook is running at the same time.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't listen to the announcers, but I loved that there were basically no commercials, and they showed a lot of the between innings warmups. I'd take that again.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Escobar has a long track record of being an average/mediocre hitter. That kind of performance over 40 PA isn't that surprising, just from normal statistical variation.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    All of the deals in that article seem overly aggressive for the buyers. The last two days, the Dodgers have started a 178 OPS+ hitter at 2B. They also have another utility guy with a 114 OPS+ they can plug in there whenever they want. Why would they give up real prospects just to hope for a bounceback from Dozier (94 OPS+)? Other deals suggested by that article include the Yankees giving up a MLB ready, top 50 SP prospect for 2 months of 5.00 FIP Cole Hamels.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so. First of all, he gets service time whether he plays or sits on the bench. And second, Wilson came into the year with 5 years, 57 days service, so he's not really close to any particular meaningful threshold. I think Doug Mientkiewicz held on for 10 years to get lifetime health insurance for his spouse. http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-nhl-nba-mlb-retirement-pension-plans-lockout-2011-1
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You should be able to Chromecast the Facebook video too. There is also a "quiet" option that will disable a lot of the emojis/comments from displaying on desktop.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Facebook game! On the plus side, it is available free, everywhere, with no blackouts on Facebook. It will be blacked out everywhere on MLB.TV, though, except some international markets listed here: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/help-center/subscription-access-facebook-watch-faq
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Larnach would do any better as a college senior next year (and would probably do much worse). Maybe they are haggling with another late pick, so they don't know exactly how much they can give Larnach.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    We can go over the pool by 5% without any future draft penalties too (we just have to pay a tax on it). So that could potentially mean $296,500 more.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean attitude, sorry. I meant coming in with men on base, maybe not having as much time to warm up, etc. Less predictable usage. Could be a factor for an older player too. If I was a team specifically looking for a setup man, I'd probably look at a few other options before Rodney.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    And Moya recalled to take his place. Moya, in turn, might be demoted on Thursday for Slegers to start. Can't say it's been an inspiring last few weeks of transactions for the Twins. Really not clear what the plan is for these pitchers.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Gibson had been worth 1.6 fWAR / 1.8 bWAR in the first half. If he duplicates that in the second half, and then repeats it in 2019 with -0.5 WAR for aging, he could produce ~4.4 WAR. At $8 mil per win, that would be worth $34.4 mil. His remaining salary is $2.1 million this year, plus arbitration next year which could be $8 mil coming off a good season. So his net value could be $34.4 minus $10.1 or roughly $24.3 mil. Looking at the Yankees, Justus Sheffield is a 55 FV pitching prospect at Fangraphs, which they valued at $22 mil last year, so it's not far off. Of course, assuming that Gibson has it all figured out is a pretty big assumption. There is a lot more risk with Gibson crashing than, say, J.A. Happ, who has been a consistent 3.5-4.5 bWAR performer for the last 3.5 years. (Plus he's left-handed, if they prefer that.) If Gibson is for real, though, he does have the extra year of control. But if the Yankees could deal a lesser prospect like Adams or Tate for Happ, they could potentially deploy Sheffield in the 2019 rotation themselves and save $8 mil towards the luxury tax next year too. Probably what I'd be looking to do. And nothing is too urgent for them -- they largely have a playoff spot locked up, and the bulk of the wild card sorting will occur after the deadline.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It has been a long time since Rodney has had setup experience. If I were an acquiring team, I would be a little worried about how he'd adjust to the role. There are enough relievers on the market that he probably wouldn't be my top priority.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The silliest thing is that they waited a day to demote a starting pitcher again, basically choosing to play with a shorthanded roster. They did it 9 days ago with Romero, and now with Mejia. And why call up Mejia for 1 start, in terrible conditions, just to demote him again? Now his next 2 turns have to be in Rochester. What does he have to prove there? He's out of options next spring too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't say that. He just needs to find a different reason to be pissed.
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