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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It would be hard to "know they are going 9" if they are somehow still in play at 1. If that's the case, there might still be a decent chance the player goes before 9, and Boras might still be working to achieve that, and leveraging the #1 interest to increase his bonus wherever he is selected. Can be pretty complicated!
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Heston was previously claimed off waivers by the Dodgers on May 26. Assuming waiver priority was granted based on the standings through May 25th, 24 MLB teams passed on him at that time, including the Twins: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?year=2017&month=05&day=25
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Heston still has an option remaining. In fact, he has been optioned this year by both Seattle and the Dodgers already.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey, Rogers, and Kintzler will all have a day of rest. Plus Wheeler. Hopefully a new pitcher too... Randy Rosario, maybe?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    All in one day?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I like the low K rate -- 10.7% so far in 2017, which would be his lowest since 2010. Down from 16-18% over the past 4 seasons. Although he did tease us with 8.5% last April, and 10.5% last July. If it sticks this time, and that exit velocity stuff holds, he could approach that 120 wRC+ mark that has long been predicted (hoped?) for him in his later career.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And like Winfield, the Padres can sign their hometown kid back 20 years from now.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't get me wrong, I've got nothing against Mauer and his contributions to this franchise. And I'm definitely rooting for him going forward. But he had a great month in April 2016, and again in August 2016. And both times, I think we got treated to articles similar to this one. (Although the addition of Statcast data is nice this time around!) I think both sides of the issue can get a little tiring. (Admittedly, I tend to avoid mainstream media where I imagine the bulk of the anti-Mauer sentiment appears, so sometimes the Twins Daily rebuttal can seem like an over-correction.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey might be able to do that (and more), for free. And we're 2 months away from trade season, so we've got time to find out. I'm having a hard time reconciling your position that Duffey has to stay in the pen, but the Twins should be aggressively trying to address the rotation in the short term. Why not Duffey to the rotation, Burdi to the pen, and you can re-evaluate when teams start listening to trade offers in July? That seems like a way better use of resources, for both the short and long term, than spending prospect capital right away trying to get whatever starter a team is willing to deal early.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Re: Greinke, the Diamondbacks are doing quite well so far in 2017, leading the wild card race and only 2 games behind the Rockies in their division, with a fairly young team. Goldschmidt is controlled through 2019. Lamb, Ray, and Walker are controlled through 2020. The odds of them dealing Greinke this season are pretty low, even for a top prospect return (for which the Twins may not even have the pieces).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe the rumor was Hicks and Ramos for Lee. Hicks was BA's #19 prospect in baseball entering that season, Ramos #58. The Mariners eventually accepted Smoak (#13) plus a few marginal prospects. Gibson was #61 and rising in 2010, so he could have been in play too. Of course, the best time to get Lee was the 2009-2010 offseason. The Phillies inexplicably dumped him that winter for a very light return.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Tonkin was the only pitcher DFA'd so far.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Got any video of that?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    It's the slugging. Murphy actually leads Rochester in isolated power at the moment, ahead of Garver and even Palka and Vargas. It's not worth shaking up the MLB roster for him yet, but it's nice to see some signs of life in Murphy after his 2016 season.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not seeing too much of a case for a few of those guys. Palka's K's are down, but so is his generally offensive effectiveness: his wRC+ at AAA in 101, his ISO less than either Garver's and Murphy's so far. I'd guess he might be making something of a case for being dropped from the 40-man later this year, as much as he's making a case for a callup. Vielma had a decent start repeating AA, but has looked overmatched as expected in first outings at AAA. Still early, of course, but he looks very much like someone you wouldn't want to call up this year unless you had a roster emergency. The two catchers are hitting well, though, and Granite is continuing his Ben Revere impression, which could be useful on the MLB bench under the right circumstances.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    No, a returned Turner would not have to go on the 40-man.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano could possibly set a triples record, just by stopping at third on his home runs?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs has wRC+ for minor league hitters, which does some adjusting for league and park, and Gordon was doing pretty well (above average) up until this year, even with the lack of power.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, to be fair, Gordon added a triple and a HR since my post. Although it is still a small sample. Before yesterday he had 2 HR, for a full season pace of 6 HR. Better than where he was before but not necessarily indicative of a real meaningful improvement in the power department. Triples are also pretty variable, as we've seen with Rosario, especially in the minors. Seeing that Gordon doubled his rate of hitting triples, with only a modest improvement in HR rate, was another reason I questioned his power improvement.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, I missed that about Turley going back to AA. Yes, that is completely inexcusable.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed! I can buy an argument for a particular pitcher to stay at his current level, working on something specific with the coach there, etc. But the Twins aren't promoting anyone worthwhile for the pen, anywhere. The only mildly interesting bullpen guy to switch levels so far this season is Nik Turley, from AA to AAA, and he's almost 28 years old. Meanwhile, stuck in AA, we have Melotakis and Rosario, both on 40-man, in their second option years. Plus Burdi, Bard, Van Steensel, and Curtiss, all of whom would need 40-man protection after the season. Same for Hildenberger at AAA. All while Rucinski, Tepesch, and Wilk have been added to the 40-man and given MLB innings.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that would be the plan with Breslow too, but his usage so far doesn't really support it. Pretty hard to "flip" a mop-up reliever. That said, Breslow doesn't have a strong "LOOGY" history -- he usually averaged an inning per appearance in his career. He even got the Red Sox to give him a couple starts at the end of 2015 season. Could be reinventing himself a bit late in his career? Not sure it would be a particularly valuable re-invention for player or team, but there you go...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fine for Burdi, if they are willing to do it. But there are other interesting arms in AA too, and none of them are getting promoted anywhere yet, even though there is obvious need in MLB and in AAA too (Wimmers' spot, for one).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Breslow has generally been effective this year -- but he's clearly become the mop-up man. His 0.52 game-entering leverage index is among the lowest in the league. We are 3-12 in Breslow's 15 games this year, which gives you an idea of when he is being used. Can Breslow get stretched out to be the long man, so we can drop Adam Wilk to add a 5th starter? Otherwise, as we've seen with Tonkin, having your mop-up man be a short reliever isn't a good use of resources.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    We're past the Chargois 2016 AAA promotion date -- he made his AAA debut on May 10th, 2016. I don't think we want to push this back any further -- if a young pitcher doesn't debut until July, that gives you very little time to evaluate their readiness and adjustments before you have to make important trade deadline decisions.
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