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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think having a platoon split and being a "filler" player are necessarily mutually exclusive. O'Rourke is 31 year old, playing on minor league contracts the past 2 seasons, with 2 MLB appearances since 2016, who was DFA'd and outrighted just a couple months ago (in addition to another DFA and outright back in 2016). I think he has a chance to be a MLB LOOGY in September with expanded rosters, but the odds are long that he will be on a postseason roster. Chiefly, while he has intriguing career numbers vs LHB, would you really trust him against quality LHB in the playoffs? The Mets cut him, and every other MLB team passed on claiming him even though he has options remaining. Does that sound like a trusted option vs LHB? He's barely pitched in MLB in 3 years, and probably won't be able to face more than a handful of good hitters as a LOOGY in a September audition. How many playoff-quality LHB will we even see in September? I guess we'll get 3 games vs Soto and the Nationals, and 3 vs Devers/Benintendi and the Red Sox, and that's about it. I don't think there's a single LHB on the Tigers, Royals, White Sox, or even Indians who would provide much feedback on whether O'Rourke is a playoff-ready option, even as a very strict LOOGY. And once he's on a postseason roster, there's no reversing it unless we make up a phantom injury, no adjustments possible after a short start or extra inning game -- once we add him, we're stuck with him for the whole series. Given our staff, I'm guessing we'd rather have more versatile guys like Littell, over a strict/questionable LOOGY.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They really offer a radio broadcast inside the stadium? I assumed one would have to tune in to WCCO. They do offer assistive listening devices: https://www.mlb.com/twins/ballpark/disability-access-guide#assistive-listening-devices
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    They could do that, and Gordon is the best candidate (the other injured minor leaguers are too close to returning). And they would have to do it by Aug. 31, because Gordon won't be able to spend the full 60 days on the MLB DL before the postseason as required by the rule that allows for injury replacements.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    DFA guys aren't necessarily O'Rourke comparables/replacements -- they might require a waiver claim and a 40-man spot. That's not AAA fill. All of the Twins DFA guys were claimed or got MLB deals -- Morin, Mejia, Magill, Parker, even Eades.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Diaz's K rate is up slightly, but the biggest change so far is BABIP -- only .197 since the trade, compared to .320 before it.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I really don't follow this line of thinking. There were also other guys they could have used instead of De Aza, Barnes, Flores, Miller, and Krol too, but they added all of them to Rochester's roster the same as O'Rourke. The very definition of org fill is that they are pretty interchangeable, and O'Rourke seems to fit that description. O'Rourke had a 3.27 ERA across 36 games and 44 innings for the Mets AAA club this year. Why couldn't the Twins pick him up to help their own AAA club?
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, O'Rourke is being deployed to eat innings for Rochester right now, so we probably can't use those results to judge how he'd fare as a strict LOOGY. If we're planning to drop a guy like Diplan or Stewart eventually anyway, I could possibly see us doing that in September and adding O'Rourke as a strict LOOGY down the stretch. Of course, we'll have something like a 15-man bullpen by that time anyway, so it may not be worth the effort! May be better to sneak Alcala onto the 40-man on Aug. 31, along with Graterol, and let them both audition for possible postseason inclusion.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't worry about O'Rourke, he was a AAA depth signing. The odds of him being considered for the postseason roster, in anything but an emergency situation, seem slim right now. (And in an emergency situation, they don't really need him on the 40-man by Aug. 31.)
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins sign AAA depth like O'Rourke all the time, it doesn't necessarily mean they intend to give him a MLB roster spot, especially not in the postseason. We were depleting Rochester's staff with our call-ups too, while Rochester was fighting for a playoff spot themselves. FWIW, O'Rourke is not being deployed as a LOOGY at AAA right now. 10 innings pitched in 6 games (and 9 walks in that time too). I could see him being a September LOOGY in MLB if we have a 40-man spot to spare (injury?), far more than I can see them putting him on a postseason roster.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    May's a free agent after 2020, although he could probably be re-signed or extended affordably, if we deem it necessary.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    That was referring to your earlier post, when you cited the org's +0.8 K/9 increase without any mention of the minors-wide increase.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, he calls himself Lil. (Lil' Magill?) And I don't see why there should be any issues. The Twins previously employed a popular outfielder known as "Shannon".
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the OPS doesn't concern me so much as the K%. A low OPS can be due to a low BABIP and/or a lack of SLG (which would be perfectly normal for a 18 year old). But Cavaco's got a fairly normal .275 BABIP, and a high 38% K rate. Still, pro debut, less than 100 PA. He might be one little adjustment away from knocking down that K rate significantly, who knows. With perhaps further adjustments/growth for power down the line.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought it was strange that Jaylin Davis hadn't gotten a look yet in the Giants outfield, but it appears they are solid at the position for the moment. Their top 4 outfielders right now are Dickerson-Pillar-Yastrzemski-Slater with OPS+ figures of 181-97-120-139 on the season. (And PIllar at 97 has been on fire lately -- 1.082 OPS the past 28 days.) I don't expect long-term greatness from any of those guys, though, so I'm sure Davis will get a look sooner or later.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that "McGill"? If his name is Magill, perhaps he should be playing somewhere in the Black Mountain Hills of Dakota... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7WBngMzqS4
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but it would be incorrect to credit the Twins development staff with the full 12% improvement in that case, which is what your earlier post implied. And of the 5% remaining -- what are normal year-to-year rates of variation in these stats? Roster effects could be big in the minors, especially for a single affiliate, and there's always some "random" variation. After all, we wouldn't be surprised if a "true talent" 200 HR team finished a season at 210 (+5%), or 190 (-5%), even if the league rate was unchanged. (A whole org is a larger sample than a single team season, of course, but the minors are so weird I don't really know what baseline of randomness to expect, even at that large sample.) Back to your original number, it appears that the entire minor leagues have jumped by +0.4 K/9 from 2018 to 2019. So Twins affiliates have still outpaced it, but it is probably misleading to cite the Twins +0.8 jump without that context. (Would be interesting to see the normal ranges of variation for organizations in this stat too.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/league.cgi?group=Minors&year=2019 Still, overall I agree there are a lot of encouraging signs, even if it's hard to quantify in places at this point in the process.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't necessarily disagree with your general points, but this stat alone may not mean much without context. I just noticed the entire International League has jumped from 8.4 to 9.0 K/9 since last year!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Romero's problems this season are due to bad BABIP luck. His MLB FIP is still 6.71, with 6 BB+HBP and 3 WP in 8 IP. And his .329 AAA BABIP is within a normal range -- he had the same mark in 2017 at AA when he was generating tons of hype as a starting pitcher. (And his AAA FIP is worse than his ERA this year.) On K/9, one would expect it to improve a bit upon moving to the bullpen, so that's not all that impressive of an achievement. Especially since it appears that the 2019 International League has the highest *league* K/9 of any league he pitched in -- ever pitcher is probably getting a boost in that department -- and Romero's K% is still not a career high (his K/9 is inflated by the extra hits and walks he has allowed this year, by comparison to K%). Not to say he is hopeless or anything, but there isn't really a way to spin 2019 as anything other than a struggle for him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Ramirez update: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/08/indians-place-jose-ramirez-on-10-day-injured-list.html "Ramirez is expected to miss five to seven weeks recovering from the surgery, the Indians announced. That almost certainly puts an end to Ramirez’s regular season while still leaving open the possibility of a postseason return, should the Indians qualify."
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are talking about an injury replacement in the middle of a series, only another pitcher can replace an injured pitcher, and only another position player can replace an injured position player. (And of course, between series, there is no need -- you can just submit a different roster before each series.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That is a great resource, although 4th option years are a tricky calculation, and they don't seem to be noted there (at least not until they are awarded/used, perhaps?). https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. Per Fangraphs, the Twins actually have the lowest percentage of fastballs seen in 2019: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=2,d
  23. Otto von Ballpark
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Romero won't be out of options next spring -- per Jeremy Nygaard, Romero will qualify for a 4th option year: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/finer-points-options-part-two-the-fourth-option-r7741
  25. Otto von Ballpark
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