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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Which suggests they're not actually that desperate to cut salary! Unless/until they want to sign someone bigger.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Graterol was signed by TR, and Kirilloff was drafted by TR too. Of course, the current FO has been developing them. On your larger point, I think you can give the current FO some development credit on a lot of guys, but overall, it's still an open question how well they acquire/draft/develop. (As should be expected, after only 3 years.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Corey Dickerson and Cole Kalhoun have performed equally to, or better than, Rosario, and are available in free agency for less than what Rosario will make in arbitration over the next two years: wRC+, 2019 and career Dickerson: 127 and 117 Calhoun: 108 and 105 Rosario: 103 and 105 I think the theory would be, if you can get something useful for Rosario, you can sign one of those guys as a replacement, and it will be a net gain. (Of course, I doubt how much we can get something useful for Rosario right now, especially with those guys still available in FA.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, many of us have paid sales tax in Hennepin County too...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously not. But a modern playoff team needs 4 starters anyway, and the Twins didn't have that -- because in July, the FO bet on Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, and Gibson all being active, healthy, and good come October. (Or they bet on Dobnak or Smeltzer being ready to start a playoff game? That didn't turn out much better.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Let's stop the fussin' an' a-feudin' -- there is plenty of blame to go around for the Twins playoff losses! Arraez's defense and Baldelli's pen management demand a seat at the table too!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there may have been a new U.S. tariff, on Canadian batting averages...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    W-L record for pitchers is pretty meaningless, without further context. Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the second half -- 13 GS, 2.76 ERA, 118/7 K/BB in 81.2 IP, .612 opponents OPS. But he was only 4-4. Berrios was 6-3 with a 4.64 ERA in the second half; Gibson 5-3, 5.92 ERA. W-L record really doesn't tell us anything about how well they pitched. (Even in just his 4 second half losses, Darvish's ERA was only 4.28.) Now, it's certainly an open question how well he'll pitch going forward, but there was definitely a trend of improvement in 2019 that's worth noting, beyond just his overall numbers.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    The Cubs can already play Baez at short, if they want. Even without Russell, they still have 4-5 other guys capable of playing second base on their 40-man roster, most notably Bote and Hoerner. Bote had a pretty good season (2 WAR in 356 PA) and they've already signed him long-term.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Do they? They've said that, but the Red Sox said that too and they've gone out and spent $9 mil on two players this week, before they've even cut a dime. Maybe this "need" has been exaggerated? Furthermore, the Cubs are only $1.7 mil over the lowest luxury tax threshold right now. If they really want to get under it, they can probably find someone to eat $2 mil of Tyler Chatwood's salary or something (even just exchanging Chatwood for a slightly less expensive bad contract). They could also trade Jose Quintana, get some wiggle room, and probably even get a decent prospect back. (Note they just exercised Quintana's $10.5 mil option a month ago, so they're probably not in any desperate financial times.) They absolutely *don't* have to trade Darvish, or Bryant, or anyone else like that, and certainly not as salary dumps. Also, I've seen it reported that the Cubs only need to cut salary if they want to add salary this winter, and they don't really *need* to add anyone. They're returning most of their 2019 team -- all they really "need" is a couple relievers, and they've already added a few cheap candidates via trade, minor league contract, and Rule 5.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Another thought: do we really want Bert Blyleven pronouncing this name?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Has Ben Nintendo ever faced Genesis Cabrera?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if you don't think Alcantara has top-of-the-rotation potential, he was an above league average SP last year, in a full season (32 starts, 197 innings), at age 23. He has 5 years of team control left -- including the next two at league minimum salary. I get that Rosario is a good player himself, and perhaps unfairly maligned at times, but I wouldn't be calling a straight-up Rosario-for-Alcantara swap "nonsense" from the Twins side.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure what you expect on a site that has a new, Twins-focused thread for each *day* of the winter meetings! It's pretty much set up to micro-analyze things. And frankly, it's still very much an open question whether this front office will actually make major moves (and whether they need to, of course). As for the offseason being over, doom and gloom, etc. -- there's also lots of hyperbole. Welcome to the internet! I find it's often best to ignore it. (So I never -- I repeat, NEVER -- make or reply to hyperbolic posts! )
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    For sure, you have to keep the tracking devices on after retirement. Really the only way to process long-term changes in the migratory habits of "tortugas".
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    League average was only 5.18 innings (that's less than five and one-third). I don't think averaging 5 is particularly meaningful anymore, by itself. (His average performance in those 5 is probably more important, plus the other factors -- age, health, salary, etc.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Right on! If I can track where my UPS package or pizza delivery is, I should be able to follow the movements of La Tortuga too.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Audra Martin? Losing Brian Schales brings an end to the Nick Anderson transaction tree, barely after it began...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Not in 2018, when the Brewers went to game 7 of the NLCS. 6.9 bWAR. (Not that the Twins needed/need Cain specifically, but it would be nice to see them land a contributor like that, even if it meant the risk of an $80+ mil contract, or even sparing a few prospects.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    That's crazy talk, Bumgarner's not getting over $150 mil. His MLBTR estimate was 4/72, so $100-120 mil is already a pretty hot market for him. I guess I wouldn't be shocked if he wound up with $125 mil or something, but who's left to bid him up beyond that? The Twins, Dodgers, and Braves have actually spent relatively conservatively lately. The Angels might be desperate, but they also just had to sell their top draft pick before signing Rendon, I think they know they have limits.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Can't sign him until we modify the TD censor policy, apparently.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I think at minimum Dobnak is being universally endorsed as Pineda's replacement for the first month and a half, even among those who still want 2 more starters acquired. (And from there, he could easily earn a more permanent spot through performance or injuries.) As far as being the 5th starter outright, even with Pineda, I'm open to that possibility too. Although I think Pineda's absence might be a good opportunity to let Dobnak compete with a quality buy-low guy like Alex Wood as well, and let the winner keep the 5th spot when Pineda comes back.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    We even have a "sister team" in Korean baseball (in nickname, at least) in the LG Twins! (Edit: coke to prouster!) We should have changed our name to the "Hormel Spam Fighters" to land Ohtani too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think "beggars can't be choosers" applies to the Angels rotation these days.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Gerrit Cole and Mike Minor got better moving to the AL. Lance Lynn looked like a poster boy for a bad NL to AL transition, but now his career AL ERA+ is exactly the same as his NL mark. Quintana's been a little worse in the NL so far. Very small samples, but Bauer and Stroman were worse after going to the NL last year, and Greinke did just fine coming back to the AL. I'm sure there are guys for whom the reverse is true, but I really doubt there is any kind of meaningful general pattern.
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