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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, Escobar has a career 0.00 catcher's ERA. (Coaxed a 1-2-3 inning from Chris Gimenez.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    May's 30 day rehab would end on June 10. However, teams can request an extra 30 days of rehab from the commissioner's office for players recovering from Tommy John surgery, in 10 day increments. So if they go that route, they could postpone the decision to as late as July 10, waiting for May to find his groove and/or an opportunity to open up in Minnesota. An optional assignment could accomplish much the same, of course, and it might come to that anyway.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick, any reason Wilson Ramos isn't on this list? Seems like a more logical candidate than Flowers, given the Rays have already started selling (Colome).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't the Jays kind of need him? Russell Martin isn't getting it done anymore, and his deal runs out after 2019 just like Castro.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I guess you mean draw walks. Larnach had a 20% K rate. Actually his college K/BB profile looks a lot like Rooker's, so who knows how it will translate to the pros. Jeffers is better in that regard, more BB's than K's, but in a lesser conference too?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    No, that rule does not apply for 26th man situations.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, when looking at his K numbers, that K's are up in the minor leagues just as much as MLB (if not more than), even without pitchers batting in AAA. Still Littell has been a tick above league average in strikeouts at AAA this year, in his age 22 AAA debut which is nice, but not quite as impressive as the same numbers would have been a few years ago.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs: "The Padres Paid a Bunch for a Draft Pick" https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-padres-paid-a-bunch-for-a-draft-pick/ Despite the title, the author finds it to be a reasonable deal for the Padres.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually that is not really an improvement in OBP -- it is just double-counting his improvement in AVG. (His "isolated discipline" -- OBP minus AVG, or reaching base other than getting hits -- is actually down 5 points.) Likewise, the OPS improvement is doing a bit of double-counting too -- a single will improve both OBP and SLG. So you should expect a 52 point increase in AVG to produce at least a 104 point increase in OPS, assuming the walk rate is constant. His "isolated power" (SLG minus AVG) has improved by 21 points, but that is pretty small, basically 3 total bases. (I notice he has 2 triples already, and minor league triples are usually pretty suspect for non-speed players. Downgrade those to doubles and it mostly erases his purported isolated power gains.) His big improvement is BABIP -- up from .265 to .356. Again, for a non-speed guy, not sure I would count on most of that improvement staying.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    That, and even when successful in the minor leagues, Cave is kind of a low-OBP, higher-K type. Even if he managed to post an acceptable batting line in MLB, it would probably be the result of running into a couple of pitches rather than taking consistently good at-bats.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Would you like to bet on that continuing? LaMarre only has 50 PA, and his OBP has been steadily dropping. Why not hitch your wagon to Gregorio Petit's .407 OBP? Only 27 PA, but if he can reach 6 times in his next 23 PA, he'll be right where LaMarre is now. And he plays shortstop!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Wade was pretty hot as of May 19 (his injury date), at which point LaMarre was 4-for-22 with 9 K's since his 3 hits in extra innings vs Cleveland. And Buxton at that time was 2 for his last 23 with 9 K's and playing through injury. If they weren't willing to promote Wade by then, even just to AAA, I'm not sure what we can presume about their promotion plans for him in the near future. I'd probably expect Jake Cave to get the next call.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    They are very different injury cases. Granite was bothered by an injury during spring training, spent over 3 weeks on the DL, and still isn't hitting well. That has definitely complicated any 2018 promotion plans for him. But Wade was fully healthy this spring, and healthy and hitting well into mid-May. He didn't get hurt until he collided with a wall on May 19. Given the Twins still hadn't even promoted him to AAA by that point, even while repeating AA with improved power etc., there really isn't a case that the injury has seriously impacted their promotion plans for him this year.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you saying that promoting Wade now is a comparably extreme opinion as calling for him to be DFA'd after a slump? Otherwise, I'm not sure how relevant this statement is.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Rosario and Kepler aren't going to sit against LHP, and they've actually been solid against LHP this season anyway. So I think you could still afford to run Wade out there too (I'm not so sure about Granite).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure Grossman's 2017 was anything special for a 4th OF. He was a league-average bat with terrible defense, that's basically replacement level. In 2016 his bat was probably good enough to offset the bad defense (although metrics don't necessarily agree), but it sure seems like 2016 might be the outlier offensive performance of his career. Also, I don't think they would have to "jettison" Grossman. First of all, they could swap a guy in for LaMarre first, but even if they wanted to swap out Grossman too, he hasn't been worth his $2 mil salary, so it's quite possible he clears waivers. And he can't refuse an outright assignment. So we could keep him around in Rochester, in case of another injury, Wade struggling, etc.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    "Solid" is obviously subjective (did Tampa feel Palacios was a "solid" return?), but keep in mind, interest in both Lynn and Odorizzi was pretty tepid this past winter. If they are healthy and pitching well, maybe in the ballpark of the Jaime Garcia trades?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    A boatload, for 1.5 years of Gibson? A guy who is pushing 31 years old, with a career 90 ERA+? I think you might be overrating the trade value of his last 11 starts of 118 ERA+. Maybe we could get a Palacios type for him now. Likewise, I don't think the trade value needle has moved too much on Odorizzi since we got him for Palacios. I guess he may be answering questions about any lingering back issues, but he still has a 5.05 FIP this year, and a few months less team control than he did before. Return comparable to Palacios again?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, 4 of those were extra inning road games, where by definition all losses will be walk-off losses.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean to jump the gun, of course. May's standard rehab can run through June 10
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Just noticed this: https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3538 "With approval of the MLB Commissioner, a player who has undergone elbow UCL reconstruction surgery (so-called "Tommy John Surgery") may have his Minor League Rehab Assignment renewed for up to 30 additional days (in the form of three ten-day renewals)." So perhaps we could get more rehab time for May.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe there is a Cone-Rivera joke I am missing, but Rivera was an international signing from Panama.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm afraid I don't follow. The Twins drafted Blayne Enlow at #76 last year. They likely would have drafted Enlow at #74 too, if they had that pick. I wouldn't eliminate him from the analysis when projecting the potential value of our #74 spot this year. Of course, expanding the sample means expanding the denominator too. So if you found 3 good players at #74 from the last X drafts, and 6 at #75 during that same time, you could estimate that as (3+6) / (X * 2). Evaluating the last 15 years of picks 74-76, for example, would give you a sample equal to 45 years of just pick 74. And it would probably be a more relevant sample too, given the changes in the game. (Of course there are limits. A 10th round pick that blossoms into a star shouldn't factor into the analysis at #74. Or even a 5th round pick.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, the DFA period has been shortened from 10 days to 7 days. Also, they could have already been planning to sell this pick, and just used the Hughes DFA to solicit the best & final offers. We don't know if they were ever expecting to eat the full salary and hold on to the pick.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    We will see how much they actually spend, that should address most of it. If they only spend $90 mil next year, we will know this $7 mil really didn't matter in any meaningful way. They pretty much have to repeat this year's spending next year, or add ~$7 mil during this season, to justify this deal. (Barring Villalobos becoming a legit prospect, of course.)
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