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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    How much are "Money" and "Minny" related? In pro sports and the entertainment industry in general, we know recruiting involves a lot ego-stroking, etc. And I think it's possible that the Twins efforts in that regard are ultimately hampered by a pattern of offering ~20% less to top free agents. Put another way, big talk certainly can't be helped by bargain bidding. "Putting your money where your mouth is" as the saying goes. Not that I suggest we should overpay for someone just to make that splash -- but if there's a top player we genuinely desire in free agency (and it's certainly felt that way, at times), it might behove us to finally play at the top of the bidding instead of hovering just below that point.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If you are referring to the same info that I saw, I don't think this is an accurate summary. I believe the report said the Twins offered $100 mil to Wheeler, and were prepared to go past $100 mil. But absent any info to suggest otherwise, the Twins were not going to match or beat the two high offers already on the table, one of which was from a competitive team. In which case, his agent said, don't bother, which makes sense, because such a bid would have done nothing to advance the negotiations at that point.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Doesn't the phrase "not just" imply that Morton indeed found the perfect situation in terms of money, in addition to those other factors? If the Twins really liked Morton, what would have been the harm in making the highest bid and actually testing Morton's preferences on the other factors?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    First off, just to correct the record, Wheeler's agent isn't Boras, it's "Jet Sports Management". Perhaps not quite as ruthless. Secondly, I don't think this is much of a factor when the high bid is relatively close to the accepted bid. The union generally wouldn't like Bumgarner signing for $85 mil if he had a $125 mil offer on the table, because that affects other negotiations and it's difficult to spin -- but they probably couldn't care less if Wheeler takes $118 mil from the Phillies instead of $123 mil or whatever from the White Sox. That tiny difference doesn't hurt other negotiations at all. In fact, the union will probably welcome the positive press just like Wheeler and his agency did. The evidence we have suggests the Twins were willing to beyond their bid of $100 mil, but not likely to best either of the top two bids, so it's a moot point in regards to the Twins anyway.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a fair take. Remember, most of this angst isn't because fans were wishing for guys that the front office was never really interested in -- the FO has publicly signaled their interest in these guys, and have had talks/negotiations with them too. Darvish two years ago, then Wheeler and Bumgarner this offseason. I'm probably missing a few (trade targets too?). And each time, our final offer seems a little unsatisfying if we actually wanted the player. It feels more like we just wanted a bargain. Not that the front office is doing a bad job overall or anything, but I would like to finally see evidence of them actually *wanting* a premium player, and demonstrating a capability of doing what it takes to land him (within reason, of course!). Be it by FA or by trade, for a SP or some other position, offseason or trade deadline (although offseason is obviously preferred right now ). And there's certainly time for them to do that yet this offseason, but I'm a little anxious about it.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually it's not too bad. Remember, Story is only controlled 2 more years, and not that cheaply (although not that bad compared to FA prices, ~$25 mil total). baseballtradevalues.com has Kirilloff and Story as pretty close in median future value. But he has been a ~6 WAR player the past 2 years, so close to equal value may not incentivize the Rockies to actually deal him. They might want Lewis instead of Kirilloff, or better second pieces (like one of our top pitching prospects).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Discussion is already in the "Other Baseball" forum, since it's non-Twins. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/35851-madbaum-to-the-d-backs/
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    As to "Bumgarner didn't want to come here" -- I understand up to a point, but at the same time, part of the job of the front office is to attract talent. There are limitations to that, of course, but in an elite entertainment industry, it's not an unrealistic expectation.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not really the case, of course. Not every team is in the Twins same position, so their decision to not offer $100 mil to Bumgarner isn't remotely equivalent. Most obviously, the Yankees, Nationals, and Phillies may have thought he was worth $100 mil but they're not buying another starter. You could probably put the Mets in that group too. Then there tons of teams who aren't really in a buying position right now -- Orioles, Tigers, Marlins, Royals, etc., but even Boston, Cubs, and others. Obviously, the market as it is, 5/85 is his market value by definition, but 5/100 wouldn't necessarily have been "wrong" or bad talent evaluation just because 29 other GMs didn't offer it. Just like the Phillies 5/118 for Wheeler isn't necessarily wrong just because 28 other GMs didn't offer it. (Doesn't mean those deals are necessarily good talent evaluation either -- time will tell how the players and teams will do. And I agree there is still plenty of time for the Twins to do something else, but I also understand the concern and anxiety as we wait for that to actually happen.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would Boras not want that to get out? It would make him look better. It would make his client look better. It would make his client's team (Philly, assuming he still signed there) look better.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FYI, I think Pineda is eligible to return May 10th (game #40). And he is eligible to play in spring training, in the minors for 15 days before May 10th, so he should basically be 100% ready to go on May 10.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Story has 2 years club control left. He will probably earn around $25 mil in arbitration in that time.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland isn't doing a full fire sale. Even if they trade Lindor (which isn't likely) or Carrasco, they still have Ramirez, Clevinger, Bieber, etc. And they probably don't want to sabotage that group's odds at winning the division over the next couple years by potentially strengthening Minnesota. (Unless we blew them away with an offer, of course.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Goldschmidt at 5/130, on top of his $15.5 mil salary for 2019 and the prospect cost to acquire him. A pretty aggressive move, just last winter. The Cardinals also signed Matt Holiday to a 7/120 deal for 2010-2016, after acquiring him in a big deadline deal in 2009. Scott Rolen was another big deadline trade in 2002, followed by an 8/90 extension (pretty big for the time!). They've made a few other reasonably big deadline moves too (Lackey, Furcal, Edwin Jackson, etc.).
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Some use "league" to refer to all MLB (30 teams). It is the Major *League*, after all.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if there's a name for this, but when you add too many criteria to a list, it kind of ceases to have much meaning. I think it's inartfully expressed at times, but I think a lot of Twins fans are just looking for our FO to deliver some kind of aggressive/risky move with the potential to make a big (positive!) difference for the team. It could be a 5 year contract for a SP... or a big 4 year deal... or a big trade... or maybe not even an SP. And such a move wouldn't have to result in a World Series appearance to be judged successful either -- a nice ALCS showing could be good too. (Heck, most of us would have been thrilled with a single postseason victory in 2019...)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd call it reloading. You should pretty much always be willing to entertain offers for relief pitchers.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Actual Twins trade rumor alert! https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/tradefa-rumblings-arenado-keuchel-cards-twins-marlins-mets-correa.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I understand you are personally pessimistic Alcantra, but saying this offer "would do it" is frankly insulting to the Twins FO (not to mention the Marlins). You may as well say 3/45 will sign Ryu or Donaldson here. You don't have to like Alcantra or want him on your team, you can say you wouldn't offer any more than this, that's all fine -- but you can't pretend the player is actually available that cheaply.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You realize Hill had surgery and won't be ready until June or July, right? I like him too, but that's a tough arrangement, after we already signed Pineda.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe we were too "heavy" on him?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree. That's what I basically said, in the last paragraph. Up to that point, I was just responding to the other poster's general assertion that Rosario is too good/valuable to trade for something useful. He isn't, really -- but it's moot because it's unlikely that we can right now.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    And Yo****omo Tsutsugo ("he who shall not be named"?) is off the board -- 2/12 deal with Tampa (plus a $2.4 mil posting/release fee): https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/rays-sign-yo****omo-tsutsugo-japanese-slugger-npb.html
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It was really a team effort, and we can all be proud of that.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's fair to say Martín Pérez had an uneven season with the Twins -- but overall, he was basically a league-average starter, by FIP and xFIP, just as he was a few times with the Rangers prior to 2018. And he's still only 29 years old next year. I'm a little surprised he got a raise over 2019, of course, but it's only about $2.1 mil more, considering the 2019 incentives he earned.
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