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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, a player who doesn't plan to re-sign with you would make more sense for a QO -- it's a free draft pick. For the player you plan to retain anyway (Escobar), a QO makes it possible/likely you will be stuck paying him $18 mil for just 1 year, when you could perhaps get him for something like 2/20 or even 3/24 instead.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hmmm... Littell is scheduled Sunday. It is Mejia's turn on Monday, but they are on a 6 man rotation schedule so Gonsalves (turn on Tuesday) could actually go on Monday with 4 days rest. Not sure they would want to do that for his debut, though. Is it confirmed that Berrios isn't going until Tuesday? Otherwise maybe they could do Berrios on Monday and Ervin on short rest Tuesday (although maybe coming off 66 pitches is too much). I guess my prediction would be Mejia, and they might drop him for Ervin afterward, barring a trade or injury. They could insert Ervin as soon as Wednesday if they wanted.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Very slowly, like by 1 K per month. And even that has reversed for July so far. April 29.7% May 28.7% June 28.0% July 32.4%
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably just until Tuesday when we will need a 5th starter again. I see Ervin is pitching tonight in Rochester, so we'll probably have to pull him early tonight if we want him available to start Tuesday...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    As long as they sign for less than $50 mil (a virtual certainty for Escobar, and a likely possibility for Dozier), the comp pick is going to be roughly equivalent to the 70-something pick we traded with Hughes. We got $7 mil for it, but many observers thought it was a bit of an overpay by San Diego, and of course it was one of only a couple picks that could actually be traded/sold which boosted its value. The expected player value of that pick may only be $4 mil? And we paid $4 mil for Littell last deadline. I don't think that is a high bar to clear.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Mark Trumbo! Of course, that was a bad decision and even worse contract... I think Escobar would at least be more useful in his utility role than Trumbo ever was. On the pitching side, Jeremy Hellickson. QO rules have changed since then, though, so the penalties aren't as great for signing a QO player, nor is the compensation as great for losing most players.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    How about opening up a spot for Sano to return? I guess they could DH him or plug him in at 1B, but I presume they'd want to see how he handles 3B in MLB with better conditioning.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    For Dozier, it really depends on how he finishes. A strong finish at the plate will strongly suggest he's still the same plus player he's been for 5 years now, and worth a QO for a hopeful contender without an immediate replacement ready. Escobar doesn't have that history. Even if he somehow duplicates his first half success, there's probably not enough confidence in his 2019 projection to justify that deal.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Jaime Garcia fetched a top 20 prospect for us. (More like top 10, depending on the source.) Nunez wasn't quite a rental, but wasn't as good as Dozier or Escobar either, and he fetched a top 20 prospect for us too (again more like top 10 by some as well). We may not get to pick and choose among top 20 prospects (i.e. targeting a particularly guy or position), but I feel like we should be able to get someone in that range.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that too, but Rosario is 2nd on the Cubs in game-entering leverage index, behind only their closer Morrow. They seem to be using him like a key reliever so far. Rosario could absolutely take Duensing's postseason roster spot.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    "Give me your setup men, your closers, your huddled masses of relievers yearning to pitch free" (of rigid bullpen roles)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Link: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2017&month=10&day=3&pitchSel=429722.xml&game=gid_2017_10_03_minmlb_nyamlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2017_10_03_minmlb_nyamlb_1/ 94-95?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Cash's managing was more annoying than it was incorrect, though. They held us to 1 run over the first 6 innings with a pretty suspect group of relievers. Interestingly, the relievers that ultimately blew it (Castillo, Romo, Andriese) are supposed to be the better ones. And don't forget the boneheaded throws by the Tampa 3B and 1B...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, Belisle's spot could (or should) be used for that purpose instead. But given that it's not, using Magill's is the next best thing. I'm not going to give them a pass for mistakes involving Magill just because they are making another mistake with Belisle.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think that's basically the rule, but you can't judge part "A" until the runner actually gets to the plate. Here's the frame of the video where the ball enters Sucre's glove: If you use your guidelines as a strict rule, you'll wind up with some silly outcomes. Which is why MLB specifically clarified the role of the ump's judgement for these situations: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-clarifies-home-plate-collision-rule/c-93914144 You're not going to eliminate all injury risk at home plate, just like you can't at second base on steals, etc. But you can at least remove the "extracirricular" contact (where the primary goal isn't tagging the runner or the base), and the current rules seem to do that.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not close. 50 FV prospects like Kiriloff and Gonsalves are useful but not exactly rare -- there were 97 of them on Fangraphs preseason lists. And the Marlins already had the most in MLB, with 7. Packaging 2 together isn't any kind of special offer that gets this deal done -- if that was the best offer, the Marlins would just wait and try again later like the Brewers did with Lucroy. Some relevant reading: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/ https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't Sucre have the ball before Cave got there? He had his foot out before he caught the ball, yes, but Cave wasn't there yet either. But I am certainly no expert on this rule.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I'd prefer the shuttle not come at the expense of the starters. After the all star break, we don't have any off days until August, so there are regular starts available, and Mejia and Romero at least are interesting enough that either could deserve a few turns. If the 5th starter pool was Slegers, Enns, etc., you could probably rotate them with relievers.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    My favorite Provus comment, he initially mis-identified Busenitz warming up as Belisle, and quickly corrected himself, as if he realized that Belisle warming could suddenly cause him to lose a significant portion of his listening audience.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is to discourage some of the more frivolous challenges. Otherwise, you would get more teams challenging plays just hoping the umpires find something. I don't like the manager challenge system in general (I'd prefer everything initiated by the replay official), but if you are going to do it, this seems like a reasonable part.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If they were rostering guys with options, though, they wouldn't have to worry about that. For example, Moya throws 40 pitches, and the rest of the pen is taxed too? Option him for Duffey. Or a AAA starter. Then rinse and repeat. I don't think our pen is good enough or deep enough to hold a non-optionable guy in reserve all the time, and I'm also not sure Magill is good enough or has enough potential to warrant that kind of investment in him either.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Magill is out of options. I suppose he could clear waivers, but it's not so easy to shuttle him between Minnesota and Rochester. However, I don't think the criticism is about using Magill, per se. It's more like, if we're not going to use him, why do we keep him? The rest of our pen isn't good enough to support that. I think I'd rather use Magill's spot to rotate through Moya, Curtiss, Duffey, etc. Maybe even break in a AAA starter.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Astudillo owns the 9th now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Getting him some work before the all star break? Trying to impress Kevin Cash and the Rays somehow?
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that what they said about Tyler Jay too?
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