AlwaysinModeration

Might want to read Doogie’s tweet a bit closer, as it said the opposite.

Certainly seems more focused on the money than his preferred destination, that’s for sure. Perhaps they should just go ahead and show him the money.

Piecing together a few things that have been reported or that we think we know: 1. The Twins have made Donaldson a four-year offer. 2. Donaldson played in Atlanta last year, enjoyed his time there, is from the south, and wanted to give Atlanta a chance to field a competitive offer after he tested the market. 3. The third main suitor, the Nats, have moved on, signing several other infielders and relievers, using up roster spots and resources they were saving for Donaldson. 4. Atlanta has now made a four year deal. 5. AFTER reviewing the received four-year deals, Donaldson has indicated that 4/110 would be a contract offer that would get it done. 6. Twins front office staff, who have indicated they have made a competitive / the highest offer, are commenting that Donaldson doesn’t want to sign with Minnesota. 7. Atlanta is currently $7mm over their highest opening day payroll ever. 8. He hasn’t signed yet. From all of this, it seems clear that the Twins have an offer (4/95?) that is the top offer, and decently more than the Braves’ offer (4/80?), yet a fair amount less than 4/110. But since he hasn’t accepted their offer, the Twins are frustrated he won’t just sign with them already. They could raise their offer, but they’d be bidding against themselves. My point is that this is still a fluid situation. Donaldson could relent and take the Twins’ offer. The Braves could increase their offer to the acceptable range. Another team could swoop in. Or the Twins could relent and add a bit to their offer (4/100, 4/104?), which would give Donaldson cover to say “I was interested in staying in Atlanta, but Minnesota made me an offer I couldn’t refuse.” If those four outcomes, the Twins sign Donaldson is two of them. This isn’t over.

Tick, tick....

I think Donaldson should bat leadoff.

I think the Nats are out on Donaldson. In the last day or so they have signed Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera in the infield, and Will Harris in the bullpen. They are to the point where signing Donaldson would put them over the luxury tax. More importantly, they have the following infielders: Howie Kendrick, Starlin Castro, Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera, and top prospect Carter Kieboom. Plus I can’t believe that they don’t bring back Ryan Zimmerman if he wants to play another year. The Nats have moved on from Donaldson. They are spending their remaining FA budget and roster space on other players. So hopefully that means it is down to Atlanta and Minnesota. And Atlanta is already sitting at $142mm in payroll (last year $135mm). Are they going more than $30mm over last year’s budget? Edit to add: Atlanta has never had a season-opening payroll of over $122mm before.

A lot of the “tea leaves” reading have assumed that because he said he would let Atlanta match any offer, and he is from the south, that he prefers Atlanta. I think a better way of looking at it would be he liked Atlanta just fine, but really he was telling them—I’m exploring the market, but I won’t sign a contract without extending you the courtesy of checking back with you. That doesn’t mean, you match it, and I’m staying in Atlanta. It just means he’d loop back in with them before signing elsewhere.

I agree with you, Doc. If the Braves had matched the Twins’ offer, he’d have signed with the Braves already. And like I said, the Braves are already over last year’s payroll. Maybe the Braves offered 4/80, while the Twins are at 4/92. The biggest challenge is the Nats swooping in. They let Rendon walk, but their window is now, with neither Scherzer and Strasburg getting any younger, so getting a couple of good years of Donaldson makes sense. Also, they will need to throw Zimmerman a few million as well, so signing Donaldson could actually push them over the luxury tax.

And actually the Nats are $24mm under the luxury tax—suspiciously near what Donaldson is asking for. Meanwhile, the Braves are $7mm over last year’s payroll already. If you want to play this right, here is the way to do it: In order to stay under the luxury tax for this coming year, the Twins are limited to offering Josh Donaldson only $89million for 2020. They can’t go any higher than that.

Come on, man. At least play along!

You had me at “Yankees contracted.”

Plus the Nats just spent the rest of their money on Will Harris, so they can’t afford Donaldson!

Does the victor need to do a curtains call?

This is a strangely optimistic (and frankly, reasonable) take that has no business around these parts.

There is one thing the Twins have over the Braves and Nats - the DH position. After this year, the Twins will have lots of DH ABs to offer. Would have to think that could be a consideration.

Wow. David Stern and Don Larsen. (Point of clarification—these two cannot be added to our lists, obviously?)

Yes, the statcast data average exit velocity is for all balls hit, including ground balls, pop ups, homeruns, and even lineouts. You can see average launch angle too. http://m.mlb.com/statcast/leaderboard#avg-hit-velo And sure, average exit velocity PLUS launch angle would provide more detail. The point I was making by posting that top ten list, though, is that hard hit balls are in and of themselves extremely valuable as they overwhelming result in hits, usually extra-base hits, and home runs. The more hard hit balls, the better. I’m pretty sure Cruz, Cron and Schoop were targeted last year at least in part because of their ability to consistently hit the ball hard. If the Twins succeed in signing Donaldson, that would fit the pattern.

Looking at the stat cast leaderboard of hard hit balls in 2019, limiting to players with at least 100 “events”, here is the top 10 average exit velocity: 1. Judge, 96.7mph 2. Gallo, 96.2 3. Sano, 95.2 4. Cruz, 94.5 5. Schwarber, 94.5 6. Donaldson, 94.0 7. Yelich, 93.9 8. Fr. Reyes, 93.8 9. Stanton, 93.8 10. Moncada, 93.6

Looking at Donaldson’s stats are remarkable. He’s posted an 883 OPS or above five out of the last seven seasons. He’s posted WAR of 5 or above in six of the last seven seasons, and 6+ WAR in five of the last seven seasons, including last year. (Sano has zero; his max WAR is 3.1.) Trying to figure out a reasonable contract for him, if he is a 4 WAR player going forward, which seems conservative, the standard calculations for a player are to expect a 0.5 WAR decline per year. So four years equals 4+3.5+3+2.5=13 WAR. At $9mm per WAR, a contract should be 4/117mm. At a more conservative $8mm/WAR, his contract would be 4/104. MLBTradeRumors projected him to get 3/75. He’s made $23/year the last two years. 23x4=92, so maybe the Twins have offered him a 4/92 contract. I’ll note that the Twins signed what turned out to be the best hitter of the offseason last year at about this time, an old guy who hits the ball extremely hard, who the Twins weren’t expected to sign (or outbid other teams for). Could history repeat itself?

Took my three sons to see it on Monday. I thought it was fun.

Oh, I forgot: 3. Sign Donaldson.

Two points: 1. Homer Bailey played his whole career with Cincinnati. He was lousy from 2016-2018, posting ERAs over 6. However, his BABIP was 452, 350 and 331 those seasons. This past season was his first season with a new team, first with KC and then with Oakland. He changed his pitch mix, adding in nearly 25% splitters. When he got to Oakland, both his fastball and his splitter were above average pitches. This is notable for a few reasons; one, his fastball had been terrible for the five previous seasons in Cincinnati; two, new pitching coaches obviously had some new ideas for him in terms of pitches and pitch mix that worked; and three, Wes Johnson could have additional new ideas to help him with velocity and pitch mix. The fact that he was targeted by the Twins might mean they think there is some upside. 2. Does Rich Hill get his incentives if they are reached during the playoffs? Might be significant if he isn’t back until post All-Star break.

This seems pretty reasonable, although I would see 25/20/15 rather than 30/20/10.

I definitely don’t see them signing three SPs. I am skeptical that they would even sign two of these guys. However, it seems quite reasonable to expect them to sign one of them, likely either Walker or Wood (my preference, as stated on the Taijuan Walker thread, is Walker). I also think that signing would go nicely with either a Donaldson signing or a trade for David Price.

Seriously, this bothers me more than missing out on Ryu, for some reason. EE kills the Twins.