AlwaysinModeration

Ok, this deal makes the deadline make sense. Find a way to call up Jenkins and Culpepper, hope Kremer turns things around a bit, and let’s make a run at a playoff spot

So far the headliner has been…Dean Kremer?

Where is the eye roll emoji when you need it

I feel like we need a separate “fun with numbers” post with AJ Minter’s projections for the rest of the season….50 games, 50 appearances, 50 pitches, 50 outs? Also, Brock, I feel like “truly terrible” for yesterday’s game is a bit hyperbolic. I do find it funny that the Mariners celebrated Cal Raleigh’s game winning groundout like he was a hero, even though he actually grounded out into a rally-killing double play, it just didn’t turn out that way.

Thanks for posting that Fangraphs piece. It’s been several years since I looked at the cost of free agents per WAR and this piece adds a lot of nuance. The piece notes that there is a big jump in price for 2+ WAR players as compared to 1-2WAR players. Jeffers is borderline between those areas. He’s definitely not a 3-5 WAR player commanding the high end of the scale. I’d suggest he’d get less than the 2+WAR group (which was $12.86) and more than the 1-2WAR group (which was $8.5). Let’s split it and say $11mm/ WAR. Now, how many WAR is he projected to get over a 4 (or 5) year contract? You say he’ll be projected/ paid for 2WAR in 27, which is reasonable given his 23-26 track record. In 2028, he will be projected at 1.6WAR or 1.5WAR, depending on the discount factor (the article uses 0.4WAR decline per year, but Tango and Smith have typically used 0.5WAR decline per year). In 2029, his projection goes down to 1.2 or 1.0, and finally, in 2030, he is projected for either 0.8 or 0.5WAR. So, the calculations for his free agent contract broken out like this: 2+1.6+1.2+0.8 =5.6, at $11mm/WAR = 4years. $62mm, or $15.5mm/year Or, using the steeper decline model, which might make sense (especially for a catcher): 2+1.5+1+0.5 =5 at $11mm= 4years, $55mm, or $13.7mm/ year. So Jeffers as a free agent this off season could be looking at a contract in the 4 years, $55-60mm range. (Note that the fifth year projection is 0-0.4 war, or $0-$4.4mm tacked on. If a team is willing to tack on a fifth year in order to land him, they are paying for basically no projected value.) As for next year, at $11mm/WAR, his projected value in 2027 is roughly $22mm. Twins could expect to get roughly even value if they offer him a QO and he accepts. However, Jefferson would be right to reject the $23mm QO offer, because he will get a contract worth $30-$40mm more than the QO offer.

I’d actually say the Twins almost stole this one. It’s too bad Caratini didn’t challenge ball 4. Munoz is tough—must be hard to see that clearly as a batter. If he was catching I bet he challenges that pitch.

Throw to second

Dobnak’s beard looks amazing

I have a relatively easy solution to this. For every inherited runner that scores, divvy up the earned run between the starter and reliever by quarter points based on the inherited base. So for that particular run, which Sands inherited on first base, Prielipp gets 0.25 and Sands gets 0.75. If a reliever comes in with the bases loaded, of all score, each get 1.5 instead of 3 for the starter and 0 for the reliever. If a reliever comes in with a runner on third, he only gets 0.25 if he lets it in, while the starter gets 0.75. (Second base is 0.5/0.5). Number of outs don’t matter.

Strong disagree. The bullpen isn’t going to be perfect every time. This was a great game to have a dud from the bullpen—when the offense/As defense scores 11.

Step 2 of the 15-game winning streak: ✅

Step one of the Twins’ 15 game winning streak.

With Kreidler starting, I expect this to be resurrected on this good Sunday.

That was a tough one to watch the replay of…which I had to do after reading the box score “single line into double play”…wha?!?

Went to the game last night. First time at Wrigley. It was packed. Reminded me a bit of Fenway. It is wild that there are bleacher seats on the roofs of buildings on Sheffield and Waveland across the street. From behind home plate it looks like they are a part of the stadium. Did not think the game was going to go the Twins’ way after Bailey put the first two runners on first and third in both of the first two innings. To get out of those jams with one total run was improbably impressive and/or lucky. The double play turned by Lewis was an interesting choice (stepping on first first), and if the runner holds up at second, the run scores before he is tagged. Keep the momentum going, would be great to get a series road win against a tough NL opponent.

Do we have any sense of whether the extreme smoke is going to cause them to postpone the game? Edit to add: Considering Bailey is kind of a smoke and mirrors guy, maybe this will play to his strengths.

I don’t know, but I bet he was a steal.

Do It Again, by Steely Dan

What the hell?

Love this pick.

Excellent pick. Glad they didn’t mess around.

Royce’s 8th inning AB vs Bachman: five pitches nowhere near the strike zone. The next at bat was 7 pitches out of the zone as well; Brooks swung at three of them. It wasn’t until the 14th pitch of the AB that Bachman actually threw a pitch in the strike zone, but the Twins had already swung and missed five times. (And then later in the inning, Caratini swung at the first two pitches of the AB, both balls).

💯 on all of this: Didn’t mind the banter and even some insights, they just need to call the plays. Brooks Lee made a nice play on a liner early in the game that they didn’t even mention. Wallner has Cement Bones, Cleveland packed Cement Gloves for this game. Taj with at least 23 swings and misses. (!) He was filthy. Tonight we get to see what Roden can do.

Keith Law posted another Mock Draft, based on “what he’s hearing” and will do one on Friday. He now has Emerson #1 to the White Sox, Lackey #2 to the Rays and Cholowsky #3 to the Twins, saying they are “in the catbird seat.”

The Twins trade for Detroit pitcher Woo-Suk Go for cash considerations. He has a 29% K rate, and a 2.60 ERA in 27 AAA innings this year, but hasn’t gotten into an MLB game yet. Career stats in Korea and the minors: 3.51 ERA, 9.7K/9, 4.0 BB/IP. He’s 27. Hopefully he doesn’t suck. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ko----001woo&utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2026-07-05_br