JP3700

The A's are the team I would be talking to. They're in win now mode. Unfortunately for them, they don't have much in their farm system and can't afford to spend big on free agents. They do have a surplus in several areas that match up with the Twins. Their team is very balanced, but their needs include the back of their bullpen, a veteran starter and a RH bat in the outfield. We have some good arms in the bullpen and Aaron Hicks would be attractive as the heir apparent to Coco Crisp. He could also serve as their RH bat in the outfield and as a defensive replacement in 2014. I'd be inquiring about Brett Anderson. He's the type of high upside guy they should be looking for. He's only 26 (younger than Kyle Gibson) and has front of the rotation stuff. He just can't ever seem to stay healthy. They have Parker, Gray, Griffin, Straily and Milone so they could afford to move him and save $8M to spend elsewhere. He also has a $12M option in 2015, so the Twins would get two years of control. The A's also have three catchers, two of them being LH batters. John Jaso is a monster against RH pitching, but he may no longer be able to catch. He suffered a concussion midway through the season last year and never came back. So, I'd have to be assured that he's healthy. He has two years of team control left and his bat is good enough to be a part time DH and backup 1B. The key is if he can catch 50 games or so. He and Pinto could form a nice platoon. I'd also ask about Alberto Callaspo. He's going to be a $5M backup on the A's and they just signed Nick Punto. He's a good defensive 3B and is blocked by Josh Donaldson. I'd see if I could get him for cheap to be an upgrade over Plouffe until Sano is ready and perhaps move him again mid-season for some returned value. Plouffe could then serve his more suited role of LH masher.

In the last three years there have been two shortstops that are both above league average hitters and above average defensively. Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta. Last year was the first time he played in less than 140 games since 2004. Peralta has been worth 11 fWAR the last three years and that's including being suspended for 50 games. Assuming it's $6M per win on the FA market, he only has to be worth 9 WAR over the four years to be worth the contract. The Cards didn't have to give up prospects or a draft pick to acquire him. It's not a steal, but I think they did just fine.

Great post. It's not just the home runs with Arroyo though. He has always had a huge platoon split. 2013 Lefties OPS: .856 Righties OPS: : .602 Career Lefties OPS: .831 Righties OPS: .665 So although Target Field may keep a few in the park, LH batters will still do a ton of damage on Arroyo. When you look in the division, as of now, the Royals have a few LH bats and the Indians are the platoon kings. Tigers and White Sox are RH heavy. I love the idea of the vesting option on the third year. If I have to give three years guaranteed, I'd much rather sign Feldman.

That's correct. He pitched 8.1 of his 10.1 innings out of the pen. We can't really assume that his velocity spikes when he relieves though, not all pitchers do. I've also read a couple of scouting reports that stated his fastball is 90-94. Like I said, he could be useful. I'm okay with taking different avenues to try to acquire arms. I haven't seen him pitch enough to know what he can or can't be.

I have a feeling Achter may be the next Slama in the sense that he will continue to put up good numbers in the minors but will never get a fair shot in the majors. I watched him pitch in the AFL and came away thinking he will have a tough time in the majors. He throws four pitches, but his fastball barely touches 90 so he relies a lot on deception and mixing his pitches.

Pretty much what I predicted, including the Hermsen drop. Think they wanted to sneak him through waivers. I just had Wimmers and Oliveros slightly ahead of Darnell if healthy, which they might not be.

For what it's worth, Thrylos' scouting report was accurate. Fastball 91-94, throws a 4-seam and a sinker. Change up is his second pitch and he throws it 82-86, small sample size but hitters had a tough time with that pitch. Throws a slider and curve as well. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=886&position=P So he does seem to have better stuff than the guys we've been throwing out. I'm okay with some competition for the 5th spot/bullpen. He could be a useful player.

Drop: Hermsen Add: Polanco, Kepler, Vargas, Wimmers, Oliveros, Darnell, Achter Depending on how many spots they plan to fill, those would be my guys, in that order. Wimmers and Oliveros are question marks as far as health. I know Wimmers had minor elbow surgery and Oliveros only threw 3.2 innings in Venezuela. Any idea why Seth? I haven't been able to find anything on it.

The problem would be committing over 50% of your payroll on 3 players. You have to pay 22 other players. You're leaving yourself no room for error. You can't just assume all 3 players will stay healthy and produce up to their contract and every prospect will pan out.

I'd say Scherzer and Bailey are locks to become free agents (Scott Boras factor). Shields and Masterson are likely to become free agents due to the teams they play for. Lester is the most likely to get extended due to his world series performance. As far as a Garza signing limiting us from going after someone in 2015, I actually think it would. To make the math easy, let's assume Garza would require 5yrs, $85M. $17M along with Mauer's $23M. That's already $40M a year for the next five years on two players. Imagine adding another player around $20M a year. That's $60M a year committed to 3 players over the next 4 years. That doesn't sound like a successful plan to me. I wouldn't mind two big commitments, but three is too much for a mid market team. Like I said, I wouldn't mind a Garza signing but I just feel this FA class has good value in the middle tier. While next year has some front line pitchers and I'd rather go after one of those guys if I am giving out a long term deal.

Bingo. Pelfrey is the perfect example of why I use rWAR for performance. He was clearly a below replacement pitcher this year and that's why he was credited with (-.3) rWAR. fWAR rewards him with a (2.1) WAR mostly in part due to his 3.99 FIP. Which indicates Pelfrey was unlucky and deserved an ERA closer to 4.

Great post. I was going to do something like this but you beat me to it . I'd like to add that I would personally use rWAR for our pitchers' performance because it's more results based but fWAR is better for the FA pitchers because it's more based on FIP, a more predictive stat. With that in mind we only had 3 pitchers give us positive WAR last year. Correia, Deduno and Albers (barely). The other guys provided (-6.3) WAR. If Kazmir and Feldman provide 4+ WAR that is already over 10+ wins .

I'd be happy with Garza. I definitely prefer him to Nolasco. However, I wouldn't be upset if we missed on both. I'd much rather they shop in the middle tier: Kazmir, Feldman, Arroyo, Johnson, Hughes. Just much better value there IMO. If I'm signing a long term contract, I'd rather they hand one out to someone in the 2015 class: Scherzer, Bailey, Lester, Shields, Masterson. That also would fall right into the window where most our top prospects will be contributing.

As far as the proposed trade, I think the Twins say no and to me it's not close. Buxton is a better prospect than Taveras and I'm sure I'll sound crazy, but I think Meyer and Wacha are very close. I agree with Cmb, Wacha lacks a third pitch and the league will start to figure that out. Meyer has a better fastball and has 3 other pitches to go with it, with the knuckle curve being a plus pitch.

I watched that game as well. Crick was very impressive in the first inning with that overpowering fastball. As the game went along though, the fastball lost a little life and he showed his lack of secondary pitches and hitters started putting the ball in play. Meyer was much more polished. He showed the whole repertoire. He got three weak ground ball outs in the first on 7 pitches. Then he showed the ability to miss bats as the game went along. Fastball was mid to upper 90's with little effort into the 6th inning. That knuckle curve was nasty, just disappeared out of the zone. I saw a couple backdoor sliders and the change up has nice fade. I saw the AFL Rising Stars game as well and Crick struggled in his lone inning of work. Allowed 2 hits and a walk and struck out none. Meyer wasn't dominant but he didn't allow a run in 3 innings and struck out 3. The argument for Crick is that he is almost 4 years younger but from what I saw I'm happy that we have Meyer.

Sounds like durability is what the Twins are looking for. I'd be happy with Arroyo due to some intagibles I feel he'd bring. He'd bring some leadership and he could mentor some of the younger pitchers. Not only on pitching but on what it takes to pitch 200 innings every year. I'm not that excited about Nolasco. He's durable and puts up a great FIP and xFIP every year but his ERA has been under 4.48 just twice in his career. At some point you just have to say it's not bad luck and maybe he just isn't that good. His LD% has always been high so hitters square up his pitches and his K% has been down the last 3 years. At $50M+ I'd rather get Jason Vargas if they're looking for durability. Not that I'd want Vargas either though

Couple of other names to consider: Dioner Navarro: If I'm buying a fluky offensive season, I'll take Navarro over Salty. Kurt Suzuki: Known for working well with young pitchers and calls a great game. Would be a great mentor for our young pitchers/catchers

Thanks. I'm hoping for two as well, along with a good season from Gibson. That would be ideal. I'm just not a Pelfrey guy. I didn't mind the signing at the time but after watching him pitch, I just don't think he has it. He has a good fastball but he doesn't have any secondary pitches. Awful splitter, little movement on his slider/cutter and although his curveball seems to actually be pretty good, he only throws it as a get me over pitch. Hence why he gets knocked around the second and third time through the order and that's only when he has good command of his fastball. On days when he doesn't, you're looking at a very short outing. Not to mention he's brutal to watch pitch.

The club option would be nice, especially because it generally just benefits the team and not the player. I just don't see why Hughes would want to do it. I'm sure we aren't the only team who thinks he can be a much better pitcher away from Yankee stadium so other teams will be bidding on his services. So he's going to take the contract and situation that benefits him most. I agree on the Ervin comment. I wouldn't be happy if the Twins signed him. Not necessarily due to the large commitment, but because I don't think he's worth that commitment.

Keep in mind Bourn and Swisher were both seeking $100M last year. Bourn got 4yrs/$48M and Swisher got 4yrs/$56M with a $14M vesting option. A better comp would be Anibal Sanchez. He was also seeking $100M and got 5yrs/$75M with an option year that has a $5M buyout. Sanchez was a better pitcher and over 2 years younger than both of these guys.

A lot of love for Hughes which I expected. I understand the thought that we'd want to have him signed for more than one year, but this is a guy coming off a horrible year who wants to rebuild value. One year limits the risk for the team and also gives the pitcher leverage if he has a good year. I think one year benefits both sides. Keep in mind that you can always extend him, trade him or offer him a qualifying offer if he does show the change of scenery is what he needed. That is still a big IF. No love for Ervin so far!

Nothing wrong with greedy! Both would be good adds. Immediate impacts in 2014 and if the good Jimenez shows up, it could mean 10+ wins just between him and Nolasco over the Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Hernandez, Walters, Pelfrey riffraff of 2013. That's approaching .500 with money to spare. Add a couple more pieces, a full season of Mauer, better offensive seasons from Hammer and Doumit and growth from Arcia, Hicks and Gibson and we just might have something.

Great story and blueprint. While I may not agree with all of it, I like that it went a little out of the box. Hadn't thought about Billingsley and the fact that he has an option year is key. Hughes could be very good in years 2 and 3 with that outfield.

Who doesn't like playing GM? Below I broke down and added my opinion on pitchers who the Twins have or should be linked to. The contracts attached to the names are based on predictions and opinions from various sites along with my own opinion. I thought it would be fun to have people's thoughts and opinions on who the Twins should sign. The rules will be that we assume the contracts I have listed are accurate(which it won't be, but just for argument's sake), minor league deals are worth $2M + incentives if the player makes the team and that the Twins have $40M to spend this off-season. Keep in mind that the $40M includes position players so you may not want to blow the whole budget on pitching, although you can since it is our biggest need. Multi-year deals Ervin Santana (5yrs, $75M): A durable pitcher coming off a very good year who will get paid. The velocity is still there, pitches deep into games, and is a good bet to give you 200 innings a year(although the partially torn UCL scares me). The negatives for me are the contract and the draft pick that he's going to cost. More importantly the money attached to the pick. Ubaldo Jimenez (4yrs, $56M): I prefer Ubaldo to Ervin due to the higher upside, but he scares me. He performed like an ace down the stretch and carried the Indians to the playoffs. He has better stuff than Ervin and misses significantly more bats. The problem has always been control which leads to short outings. He's averaged less than 6 IP per start for the last 3 years. He will also cost the Twins a draft pick. Ricky Nolasco (4yrs, $52M): Durable innings eater. Outstanding K/BB throughout his career. FIP and xFIP have always liked him better than his ERA. Won't cost the Twins a draft pick. Question mark would be the switch to the AL due to being an NL lifer. Jason Vargas (3yrs, $28.5M): Durable innings eater. K% went up in 2013 and GB% has been better the past 2 seasons. Bronson Arroyo (2yrs, $24M): Durable innings eater to the extreme. Great K/BB rates the past 2 seasons and is known to be a good leader and clubhouse guy. Scott Feldman (2yrs, $18M + vesting option): Has a good understanding of what type of pitcher he is now. Throws a nice mix of a sinker, cutter, curveball with an occasional change-up. To me he projects to give Ervin Santana type results, while being $50M+ cheaper. Scott Kazmir (2yrs, $17M): High risk, high reward guy. Durability, health, and his platoon splits are a big concern. Velocity came roaring back this year, as did the strikeouts(something I CRAVE as a Twins fan). The best xFIP in the FA class not named A.J. Burnett. Chris Capuano (2yrs, $10M): The Kevin Correia special, except Capuano is a better pitcher. Could end up with a one year deal, but probably looking for more security. Low upside, but should be worth his contract. One year deals Dan Haren (1yr, $12M): The numbers tell me I should love him. He's maintained his amazing K/BB, 3.67 xFIP in 2013 and you can point to his bad luck with the long ball as the cause of his inflated ERA. The fact that his GB% has declined and his LD% has increased tell me it might not just be bad luck. It may be the wear and tear of being a workhorse has taken it's toll. His IP have also plummeted the last 2 seasons and there's a chance he may also get a multi-year deal. For these reasons, I'm not a big fan of Haren. Josh Johnson (1yr, $9M + $5M incentives): Boom or bust guy. I would love the signing, but Mike Radcliff already stated "if he wants $10 million, we're not going to be involved with that". Pretty much burst my bubble. But hey, you run the show in this exercise! Phil Hughes (1yr, $8M + $2M incentives): A favorite on Twins Daily due to his age and upside. I'm not a fan of his mechanics, but he still has good velocity and some swing and miss stuff. He is great at getting ahead in the count, which I'm sure the Twins would love. I'd like the signing but I'm worried about Willingham, Presley, Arcia and Doumit roaming the outfield for him. Jason Hammel (1yr, $6M + $1M incentives): Throws hard and put up front line numbers in the AL east in 2012. Injury prone, but has some upside. Roberto Hernandez (1yr, $5M + $2M incentives): Ground ball machine. Increased his K% while lowering his BB% in 2013. If he can get his HR/FB% down he should be a good buy low candidate. Outstanding 3.60 xFIP in 2013. Colby Lewis (1yr, $2M + $4M incentives): After two and a half good seasons with the Rangers, Colby is coming off multiple surgeries including Tommy John. The good thing is he recovered from the TJ surgery midway through the 2013 season so he's had more time to recover. An extreme fly ball pitcher, I have the same outfield defense concern as I do with Hughes. Should still be a good buy low candidate. Jesse Crain (1yr, $3.5M + $3M incentives): Was the best reliever of 2013 before a shoulder injury derailed his season. I know that the bullpen is a strength, but making it a seven inning game knowing Crain and Perkins are lurking is tantalizing. He could make for a nice trade chip come the trade deadline as well. Minor league deals Johan Santana: Why not?!? James McDonald: Coming off a shoulder injury. Depending on health, could be intriguing. Great stuff coupled with inconsistency. Scott Baker: Was barely touching 90 MPH last year coming off TJ surgery. Most likely cooked, but if he can regain his velocity, definitely worth a shot. Shaun Marcum: The darling of the 12-13 off-season. A lot of fans(including myself) wanted the Twins to go after Marcum. Good thing they didn't. I would give him about a 20-25% chance of ever throwing another baseball in the majors. But if Scott Kazmir could come back from the dead, I guess anything can happen. Ryan Madson: The Twins bullpen is pretty set, but Madson is outstanding when healthy. After making $12M in the last two years without throwing a MLB pitch(only in America!), he could be a steal and provide some trade value at the deadline. International players Suk-Min Yoon (2yrs, $12M): Who knows? Could be a diamond in the rough and shouldn't cost too much. Durability is a concern along with a shoulder ailment. Starter or reliever? Stuff might not play in the majors. Success of Asian pitchers recently should create some buzz but I would stay away. Randy Messenger (2yrs, $8M): One of my favorites for no reason whatsoever. Maybe it's his name? More likely it's the fact that he has a good splitter. A pitch that has seemed to baffle MLB hitters lately. Nov. 15 is the deadline for him to take offers from major league teams. He has an offer of 3yrs,$10M w/ up to $5M more in incentives to play in Japan. Raciel Iglesias (minor league contract w/ a $4M signing bonus): Only 23 he throws in the low to mid 90s with a plus breaking ball. He is undersized and needs to add a change up to be considered a starter. I could be way off on the contract but I didn't find any predictions. So I predicted a similar contract to fellow Cuban Dalier Hinojosa. I predict that he will be a steal. My signings: Kazmir, Feldman, Crain, Iglesias and of course Johan. $27M committed to pitching. What say you?

I agree. Anderson would be a great get. It's hard to gauge what it would take to get him though. The A's turned down Myers last year, but with another lost season and one less year of control, the price should go down. The A's are in win mode so they might want back of the bullpen help considering they are losing Balfour. Maybe Burton and Tonkin would do? A cheap late inning reliever with 2 years of control and a future late inning reliever.