deanlambrecht

Yes. I'd add only the Pohlad's culpability to this analysis. Terry Ryan and the Pohlad family, in that order, are the biggest problems on this team. Jim Pohlad's comments last night lead me to conclude that he fundamentally misunderstands the game of baseball. I never thought I'd miss his father's presence, and maybe I actually don't, but I think he understood the game better than his sons. We need an owner who gets it, and we don't have one. Edit to add: it's far too early to know whether Molitor is the right guy, as the OP points out.

Other than what I've struck through, I agree with this statement completely. Meyer looked great last night with the exception of two-thirds of an inning. He was clearly settling down as he approached the last out of the third. Then he got the hook. Inexplicable, terrible management decision. That was exactly the opportunity we needed to see how he pitched himself out of trouble (or not!). Analogy: In the Nolasco v. Angels game, Nolasco gave up four runs in the second inning. Nolasco's history in the organization is far, far worse than Meyer's, and his prior career indicates that we've seen his ceiling. Yet on Molitor's theory of pitcher management as displayed last night in his decision to hook Meyer, Nolasco should have been yanked out of that game before the inning ended and sent immediately to Rochester. Look what's happened to Nolasco instead. Awful. I'll give Molitor the same benefit of the doubt that goes to Meyer in this situation: young manager will make some mistakes but should be allowed to work them out in order to learn and grow rather than getting an immediate hook. Lucky for him he works in an organization that is perhaps too slow to give management the hook.

I sure hope that's correct (and I suspect that it is).

I'm surprised no one pointed out this coincidence: Bonds joins Marlins, Marlins star player suspended for PEDs. /ducks

Epic, Riverbrian. Absolutely epic!

Exactly this. The (readily available, easy to interpret!) data made it perfectly plain that we were gambling on Jepsen even last year. Two impressive months does not a career make, and TR should have known better.

WARNING: I'm going a rant. Here's what I like about the OP: it points out what I think is one of the biggest problems with commenters on this site. What drives me right around the bend is people jumping to conclusions about players/teams on an impossibly small, and certainly statistically insignificant, sample size. As to players, e.g., there's the thread now that suggests that Buxton is a flop. Ridiculous. The rule of thumb is not to judge a player's offensive capabilities until he's had 1000 at-bats at the big league level. That generally means that we shouldn't judge a player until he's been in the bigs for a bit over two years. Yet here we are with Buxton barely at 1/8th that number and someone starts a thread concluding that he's a flop. As to teams, I don't think another illustrative example is needed because it's plain to see that a number of commenters have already concluded that this season is kaput; just like they did last season, which wasn't kaput until game 160. And while I'm at it, I'll also take the opportunity to point out the ridiculous level of hyperbole we see in threads and comments here. There's a thread right now that says that Terry Ryan is a "failure of biblical proportions," or some such nonsense. Look, I have serious disagreement with many of TR's decisions. I wish the Pohlad's would replace him and the majority of the front office staff, frankly. But there is nothing remotely "biblical" about any single baseball decision. Ever. It's baseball. When we throw around malarkey like "failure of biblical proportions" or make wild claims that "[player X] is the WORST PLAYER EVER," it detracts from the quality of this otherwise excellent baseball website. And that's my point. The gentlemen who pooled their impressive talent to start this website did so based on the premise that the hyperbole and assumptions that we saw in the “mainstream press” and in the comment sections found there were not serving the community of baseball fans who have come to love TwinsDaily; that those things detracted from the joy of baseball and the corollary joy of baseball analysis. So those commenters who engage in such behavior are doing a disservice to the readers and the founders of TwinsDaily, and ultimately to themselves. Those folks, and those who feed into them by responding in a similar manner, aren’t only making themselves look bad, however. They’re making us all look bad. They’re creating a situation where outsiders will be less able to take this website seriously. TwinsDaily, and those who started the site, are a tremendous credit to baseball and to the Twins and their fans. Let’s do what we can to keep it that way. /end rant

According to this link and the updated post above, Santana likely on the DL.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

Ya'll (you know who you are) can stop clutching your pearls about David Murphy now. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/04/david-murphy-requests-release-leaves-twins-organization.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

That is an extremely pedantic comment. The author plainly qualified the comparison and showed how it remains apt despite not being a 1:1 comparison. The author's article was altogether the type of writing that makes TwinsDaily a very good site for all things Twins.

I think you're wildly overestimating the confidence a team should have when making a bid on a player like Park, and the reasonableness of taking other team-altering actions on what amounts to a rather slim chance of landing that player. You also still totally fail to take into account the basically non-existent market for 3B's at this time. Regarding not working Sano in the outfield, you're quite right. They landed Park early and should have started repping Sano their asap. I think they'll soon realize that was a big mistake. But I think the remainder of your analysis is still rather problematic. But that's just, like, my opinion, man.

The problem with this, though, is clear when you look at what the roster is doing. I did that yesterday in the late innings when the offense was flailing once again. Of the 25, Mauer, Escobar, and Nunez are the only ones hitting (and doing so at an elite level in a small sample size). But when you look at the rest of the roster, the only players who we can reasonably expect to improve their performance reasonably quickly are Plouffe and Dozier, and to a lesser extent, Suzuki. That leaves far too many other position players on our roster who are little more than wild cards with respect to whether we can expect mlb-quality at-bats from them this season. I include Sano in that calculation as well, because even though he was an absolute monster last season, he only played 1/2 a season. Opposing teams have without question been watching loads of videos on him, and at this point we don't know how strong his ability to adapt to changes at the mlb level really is. Buxton, Santana (assuming he returns), Murphy, Rosario, Arcia, Park, etc. Not sure we can really count on them, as hopeful as they appear. It is only nine games. I'm not one to panic or throw in the towel, as many who comment here are, sadly. But I do think there's a real cause for concern that 2016 could be a dreadful season for us, despite how bright our future appears. Let's hope these youngsters start hitting, and soon.

I think there are a few problems with this analysis. First, we do know that the Twins has scouted Park for a long time. That does not mean, however, that getting the winning bid on him was a sure deal. They also knew, for instance, that other teams were scouting him and, particularly given Jung-ho Kang's success in Pittsburgh, that there would likely be a good number of aggressive bidders. Further, it's a secret bidding process, so they had little idea about whether they would be the successful bidders. That makes it quite a surprise that he ended up on our team. Second, it's likely they were quite aware of the trade market for Plouffe. We fans didn't know, of course, but in retrospect it's quite easy to see that there was little market for third basemen this offseason. David Freese's eventual cheap contract painted that picture for us. But the Twins weren't in the dark in that regard. There is plenty of talk between teams, and Plouffe's value was probably well known. Bottom line, Plouffe's value was likely well known in advance, and the possibility of landing Park was the statistical equivalent of drawing a wild card.

Good prediction, because no team has ever lost six games in a row and not also lost 90+ games in the season. Right? /rolls eyes

Glen Perkins. Dang. Edit to add: it's early, but the back end of our bullpen, our two "stoppers," both have an ERA over 10. Not a very comforting way to begin the season, and if their effectiveness remains below average, how will the front office answer this time?

I concur.

Ugh. This stupid attitude about persons who are gay needs to stop. What a waste! Thanks for sharing this. I didn't realize SB had an "Outsports" page/column.

Love the update, TFelton. Thanks. I hope you'll provide another in a week or two, assuming you continue to hit a bunch of games. I really appreciate the effort!

Too late unfortunately. He got 3/$31M with a mutual 4th year option from the Giants. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/giants-nearing-deal-with-denard-span.html I would have liked to have him back, even on a two year deal (or three under the right terms). Nice guy, solid player, can teach the kids, and if we don't need him, and excellent trade chip. Best of luck to him in SF - he can't be disappointed about that!

Hey Nick, heads up that mlbtr is now reporting Lowe's contract was only worth $11 million, not the previously-reported $13 million. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/tigers-sign-mark-lowe.html The handbook predicted 2 for 10, so this new info improves your amazing predictive powers!!

Why perplexing? We're pretty sure Murphy can give us what we need right now - average production at catcher. We had an expendable player in the outfield, and we made the move. That doesn't seem terribly perplexing. As for the body we got, would I like to have gotten a super-star catcher instead? Sure? Where were we going to get one? We weren't going to get one in exchange for Hicks. Do you know whether NYY is listening to offers for Sanchez? What are the chances he becomes an even average MLB catcher, like Murphy, let alone a super star. And who, exactly, would you give up to get Sanchez? Buxton? Because that's probably what it would take. The only other potential trade I saw was the oft-discussed Plouffe + for Derek Norris from the Padres. I don't know how plausible that really was - perhaps the teams discussed it. Perhaps they still will discuss it, though at this point it's time to turn to our bullpen situation, and Plouffe might be a better trade chip in that regard at this time. But the bottom line is this trade isn't terribly perplexing, and the wish list you proposed is just that - a wish list.

Thanks for supporting your post. Knowing that it was from 2011, we get more information. For instance, at that time: - Greinke wasn't yet the dominant pitcher he became in 2013-2015. - He was still haunted by question marks based on his social anxiety disorder. - This wasn't a trade rumor in the sense that it was being discussed by the teams, but mere speculation that if the Twins were to go after Greinke, they'd need to offer both Hicks and Gibson. In hindsight, might it have been a good move to make? Perhaps, but hindsight is always 20/20. And we still don't know if there were any activities by either team to make that move or anything like it. But it's fun to consider!

This, exactly:

I don't understand why we'd overpay for an aging, declining veteran player, particularly for the two positions (1B, DH) where we already have a logjam of players. If I recall correctly (and I may not) any years ago there were rumors of a Slowey for Tex swap, and TR declared Slowey "untouchable." Beltre's name was interchangeable for Tex at the time in terms of this trade rumor. If there were truth to those rumors, they represent the greatest lost opportunity I can imagine in this sport. I add that to illustrate when a move for Tex would have made sense. Now it doesn't, in my estimation.