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Danchat

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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. Danchat
    Hmmmm, didn't think he'd get a major league deal. Robles was a quality reliever for a couple seasons before tanking in 2020. I like that he throws around 95-96, and isn't a repeat of Romo and the other slow pitchers. With the volatility of relievers in baseball, I could see this move panning out. $2M isn't a big deal.
  2. Danchat
    This seems like a great year to make a few trades at a lower cost than usual. I'd be fine if the Twins focused on trades rather than FA signings. Get Cruz back, trade for a guy like Sonny Gray, maybe trade for Marwin's replacement, sign a few relievers to 1 year deals... this seems achievable this offseason.
  3. Danchat
    I don't get why there is a belief that Polanco can play 3B... his arm is already questionable there. He'd be fine at 2B, but Arraez is there and not able to handle any other positions. Find a good backup SS like Adrianza was, and Lewis can be the future at that spot.
  4. Danchat
    Cave has a nice career OPS, but he showed little power in 2020 and plenty of swing-and-miss ability. It's telling that Kiriloff got the start over him in the playoffs. I can't feel confident about him in 2021, especially with the abundance of lefty OFs. Having Kirlioff, Larnach, and Rooker is a nice luxury. A prospect is never a sure thing, but when you have several high caliber ones, it's hard to go wrong with all of them. I wonder if we might see a Kiriloff-Kepler-Larnach OF by midseason - unless Buxton is healthy for once, and then we'd have quite the rotation.
  5. Danchat
    Baddoo went 3rd overall, huh? Color me surprised. He hasn't hit much in the low minors, so I don't like his chances of sticking with the Tigers for an entire season. I thought if any of the toolsy young prospects went, it'd be Javier over Baddoo. Losing Wells stinks. If he can stay healthy, I think he'll be a pretty good reliever. It's probably good they held onto Ober so they didn't lose him as well, as I'd put those two in similar categories.
  6. Danchat
    I wouldn't hate it if the Twins drafted a reliever and tried to develop him into something. But outside of that, I'd be fine if they didn't make any selection,
  7. Danchat
    I'm really frustrated by the Iglesias trade. The Angels basically bought out his contract and didn't have to give up a decent prospect, despite him being a dynamite closer in his prime. The middle to small market teams clearly aren't going to have payrolls that will allow them to succeed as much as usual in 2021.
  8. Danchat
    I would guess the Twins Opening Day payroll will be in the neighborhood of $115-120M... I don't see this happening. I believe I had predicted $135-140M range last year and I was pretty close.
  9. Danchat
    I've always liked Bradley, and Stanek and Middleton look like doable project relievers. By the way, it's Keynan, not Kenyan. Whoa, David Dahl has some pretty numbers. I'd certainly be willing to bet on him, he was just an All Star in 2019 and he's only 27. Though for the Twins it probably doesn't make sense to pair him with Buxton, they'd never play together because they're both made out of glass. Duvall doesn't seem like anybody that special, but he did just hit 16 HRs in 57 games this year. That's 43 HRs if the 60 games are spread out to 162. Would definitely be a bat (RH) to pair with Kepler/Cave.
  10. Danchat
    If he was actually looking for that much, then I can understand the Twins’ decision a bit more. But I was under the impression he’d get $1.5-$2M.
  11. Danchat
    They haven't. I would think they'd try to get Clippard back, not sure if they want Romo after declining his option. But then again, I thought they'd want Wisler back too. Still scratching my head over that one.
  12. Danchat
    While trying to project out what the Twins' rookie OFs might be able to do in their first season, I did a bit of research on how some of our past rookie debuts have gone. 2020 Ryan Jeffers - .273/.355/.436 (.791 OPS) 0.3 WAR 2018 Jake Cave - .265/.313/.473 (.786 OPS) 1.7 WAR 2018 Mitch Garver - .268/.335/.414 (.749 OPS) 0.9 WAR 2016 Byron Buxton - .225/.284/.420 (.714 OPS) 1.7 WAR 2016 Max Kepler - .235/.309/.424 (.734 OPS) 2.4 WAR 2016 Jorge Polanco - .282/.332/.424 (.757 OPS) 0.4 WAR 2015 Miguel Sano - .269/.385/.530 (.916 OPS) 2.4 WAR 2015 Eddie Rosario - .267/.289/.459 (.748 OPS) 2.2 WAR 2014 Danny Santana - .319/.353/.472 (.824 OPS) 3.8 WAR Those are some good numbers. Here's hoping we can tack on a couple more successful years at the top of this list.
  13. Danchat
    Wow, I didn't realize Garcia played so much CF for the Rays. He's not fit for that role, he's clearly a corner OF. Pollock played more LF than CF in 2020, but he was likely signed as a CF guy. I'm totally fine with them letting him hit the market, but I still think $10-12M is a good deal to get a guy who can hit like he can. Maybe put him in LF in a smaller stadium or pair him up with a speedy CF like they did with Buxton. But with payroll contracting it makes sense to go with the young guns.
  14. Danchat
    Just ran the numbers on other outfielders who are making similar amounts of money: Rosario 2019-20: .271/.305/.494 (.798 OPS) 38 HRs 127 RBIs (per 162) 2.6 total WAR (BBref) Avisail Garcia 2019-20 @ $10M: .270/.332/.427 (.759 OPS) 21 HRs 80 RBIs (per 162) 1.6 total WAR Aaron Hicks 2019-20 @ $10M: .231/350/.431 (.781 OPS) 26 HRs 82 RBIs (per 162) 1.8 total WAR A.J. Pollock 2019-20 @ $12M: .270/.322/.506 (.828 OPS) 36 HRs, 94 RBIs, 0.8 total WAR Josh Reddick 2019-20 @ $13M: .267/.318/.401 (.718 OPS) 15 HRs, 65 RBIs, 0.7 total WAR Wil Myers 2019-20 @ $13.8M: .254/.331/.477 (.808 OPS) 26 HRs, 72 RBIs, 0.9 total WAR If this was a normal market, $10-12M for Eddie would be very reasonable.
  15. Danchat
    I don't think we saw enough of Pineda in 2020 to justify another deal with him. I'd rather wait to see how he pitches the 2021 season and go from there.
  16. Danchat
    I did not realize Ober's fastball tops out in the 80s. He must have some great breaking pitches, 'cause throwing 88 isn't going to fly in the majors these days.
  17. Danchat
    That also begs the question, if they're only going to rely on him for 5 inning games in big opportunities, why pay him the big money? I'd prefer to see Berrios play out the next two seasons here and let him hit free agency. He'll be a pretty good pitcher for a while, but he'll likely be overpaid heavily in the open market.
  18. Danchat
    Not surprised by the Rortvedt addition, but I am surprised that Ober makes the 40 man. He's got the crazy numbers, but the question will be if he can stay healthy. I also have to wonder how soon he'll be ready. I don't think we lose anybody in the Rule 5 Draft. Guys like Severino and Javier are simply too far off, and would be deadweight on a major league roster. As for making room on the 40 man roster... fringe guys like Thorpe and Smeltzer don't seem like locks. They look like AAA arms, and we need roster spots for bullpen additions. Tortuga could be DFA'd with Rortvedt + a non-roster guy like Telis at AAA. Wade Jr. seems expendable with the OF prospects nearing their arrival. Is Gordon even worth rostering? There is plenty of room here and I don't expect a lack of roster spots to impede any FA signings.
  19. Danchat
    Yeah, I think that Kiriloff got his chance over Larnach because of the 40-man spot, as we'd be down one spot right now if we brought Larnach up for that single game. But I agree, Larnach's right in the thick of it with Kiriloff, and with the way he's consistently raked in the minors, I'd be willing to be he will end up as the better player. I fully expect him to debut at some point in 2021 and look the part.
  20. Danchat
    Odorizzi isn’t getting $60M in this market... $30M might be a stretch.
  21. Danchat
    Wow, I guess I forgot Escobar was part of the Liriano deal, which means the Pierzynski trade is still alive. That's crazy!
  22. Danchat
    Adding on to the comparisons: Playoffs: Rosario 6 games, .217/.250/.522 (.772 OPS) Buxton 3 games, .167/.167/.167 (.333 OPS) Sano 5 games, .105/.150/.263 (.413 OPS) Kepler 6 games, .056/.320/.375 (.431 OPS) Yuck. And Eddie's is with 0/7 vs the Astros! I'm not all aboard the Rosario train, but he's certainly not a bad player. He should be a 1.5-3 WAR player again in 2021. I wouldn't give him a multi-year extension, but I wouldn't hate it if he was tendered. I would like to get him back if we lose Cruz, but I'm also comfortable with the future of the LF spot with Kiriloff and Larnach close to being ready.
  23. Danchat
    I thought the same thing, but I don't really see much of a loss in losing a defense-only catcher prospect... unless he proves he can hit at a decent level, you can find that kind of guy for very cheap in the free agent market. Jax wasn't added and didn't get claimed last year, don't think he will this year. He's about to turn 26 and isn't regarded as much of a prospect, so we shouldn't lose him.
  24. Danchat
    It depends on if you count the Escobar extension (which was an A+ move by Arizona) - there were reports that the Twins offered Eddie an extension, but he declined, so they traded him. At the time this seemed like an underwhelming deal, but it's been encouraging to see Duran turn into a top 5 prospect. It's still anyone's guess if he pans out, but we needed to get these type of pitching prospects into the system. I think Maciel's ability to make contact and hold a high average will at least get him to the majors. I'd guess De La Trinidad doesn't make the big leagues.
  25. Danchat
    Balazovic should be a given, and I think the rest are unlikely. I could see Rortvedt as a reserve catcher, it'd make sense to have him in AAA as the 3rd or 4th catcher. He's likely major league ready defensively. The others are all likely safe from being drafted.
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