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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Jack Goin explains DIPS theory to Rob Antony
  2. Willihammer
    As for trade chips, Byron Buxton would be the guy I'd be fielding offers for.
  3. Willihammer
    I wouldn't be surprised if TR has fielded some calls about Arcia this deadline. 24 y/o LH bats who OPS > .800 against RHP don't come around everyday. Still a lot of upside there and dumping him now for spare parts would be a mistake IMO. Assuming Arcia is able to get back on track I could easily see him turning in a Mitch Moreland type career as a semi-platoon corner guy.
  4. Willihammer
    re: Molitor ejection There's also the possibility, maybe a small one, that Hicks goes all Hunter and gets himself tossed. Then you're out a CF instead of a manager (or both a CF and a manager). It was a big spot and a critical call and one Molitor should have been all over IMO.
  5. Willihammer
    Time to resurrect the changeup?
  6. Willihammer
    Oops, good catch. That's what happens when you control+f in the middle of a page.
  7. Willihammer
    That's debatable.
  8. Willihammer
    Actually there is evidence speed ages better than discipline-power guys. Here's an analysis where Reyes and Tulo are mentioned by name. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/5/31/2199146/hitter-aging-curves Warning - STATISTICS
  9. Willihammer
    It's a win, yeah. From a pure contract-swap standpoint, for a team that can afford it like the Jays. If anyone expects Tulo not to decline similarly though, I think they will be disappointed.
  10. Willihammer
    And paid $50m in future obligations, a top 100 prospect plus 2 lower prospects to do it. I see the upside for the Jays (the lineup is easily the scariest in baseball - maybe the scariest since... when?). I"m just re-iterating the part of the cost that is, the Jays cannot turn around and do that again. They can't escape the worst part of Tulo's contract.
  11. Willihammer
    Well, Reyes was locked up through age 34. I mean, the comparison is too easy, they're the same SS at different stages of the same extension. So I'd say its probable Tulo is a decently above average player the next 1-3 years. But you'd fully expect those last 2-3 to be burdensome just as Reyes' are/were, right? (Now watch the Rockies will flip Reyes for a top 100 prospect...)
  12. Willihammer
    I was not "manipulating" to diminish Tulo's 2015 production. I assume any 3rd grader can do the division and turn it into a rate. I'm speaking to the trend of decline and how players gradually get more expensive. Here, I'll do the same without using stats. Player A is tending older, more ineffective, and more expensive. So is Player B. Only Player B is perceived a lot differently than Player A.
  13. Willihammer
    Twins go to TOR for 4 games next week too.
  14. Willihammer
    The other thing worth pointing out is the weird 1-trade clause in Tulo's contract. Toronto can't turn around and flip him in two years if/when he declines like they could with Reyes. They are on the hook for the whole 100m+. Perhaps that was a factor in the prospect package they sent to Colorado.
  15. Willihammer
    FWIW evidently BA had Hoffman #33 on their midseason list (Berrios not in top 50). I don't think Kohl Stewart is in the same conversation with either of those guys.
  16. Willihammer
    Fair enough. perhaps my perception of him was inflated, I thought he still had the upside of the ace people saw in him before the draft. Adjusting for TJS of course. Evidently that has changed or he has slipped for some reason.
  17. Willihammer
    Player A was a highly effective but injury prone SS who accumulated 28 WAR through age 28, after which a 6 year, 9 figure extension kicked in. Player B was a highly effective but injury prone SS who accumulated 38 WAR through age 29 after which a 6 year, 9 figure extension kicked in. Player A has put up 9.2 WAR through 3.5 years into his extension and is seen as a declining expensive veteran. Player B has put up 1.7 WAR through 0.5 years into his extension and is sees as a long-term asset and a good value. Something doesn't jive here.
  18. Willihammer
    Don't you want to see what Reyes is flipped for first? Perhaps the Rockies get another top 100 prospect before the deadline.
  19. Willihammer
    Is Kiley the be all end all authority on prospect evaluation?
  20. Willihammer
    Uh... they haven't tried Pelfrey in the pen yet. they haven't tried Berrios or Dufffey or Rogers in the pen yet. Pitching is pitching, and its a team game. Save resources, move guys into different roles. Same might even go for the SS hole. Its amazing to me that the Twins can be so wildly flexible about putting infielders in the outfield but don't seem to have considered putting Dozier back at SS. His defense was disproportionately penalized by a couple of high-profile gaffes in 2012 but overall, it really wasn't that bad. He's every bit as athletic as Escobar. Get him back at SS, and bring up Polanco to play 2B. At least its worth a shot. Even at C - has anyone else noticed Eric Fryer sitting among the top framers at baseball prospectus? He still may not have enough bat but maybe he should be catching a greater share of games. Unless/until the Twins exhaust some of these options it seems premature to ship away talent.
  21. Willihammer
    Hendriks - 2.96 FIP in 75 relief innings since he left. Solid B I'd say.
  22. Willihammer
    Phew. Thanks for saving me a hypothetical phone call!
  23. Willihammer
    Kid aside, that was an encouraging read. Perkins sounds like a really great conduit for this stuff.
  24. Willihammer
    "Our stats guy ran a BB-Ref play index search on his $36/year personal subscription."
  25. Willihammer
    Very good. The title is "You're the GM," and if I'm in charge the motto is "doesn't hurt to ask." Might be they value the roster flexibility? It was more intended as an upper limit anyway (basically anyone outside the top-3).
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