Nick Nelson

On Wednesday night, Seth and I went live with our 2021 season preview, breaking down the division battle ahead and the roster that Minnesota will roll out on Opening Day. We were joined during the first part of the show by MLB.com beat writer Do-Hyoung Park, who's in Milwaukee where the Twins open their season on Thursday. Watch below: Baseball's back, folks. Let us celebrate. You can catch future streams live on YouTube, and also via our Twitter and Facebook pages. Subscribe and follow them all so you never miss out!

At first blush, Dobnak's new contract seems absurdly team-friendly. The Twins are locking up a proven young pitcher, with a 3.12 ERA through 75 MLB innings, to a five-year deal guaranteeing him less money than Michael Pineda or J.A. Happ will earn this year alone. https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1376254481659232259 With three club option years on the back end, this deal gives Minnesota plenty of flexibility down the line. The ability to buy Dobnak's would-be free agent seasons at bargain prices will be useful if he merely stays the course as a groundball-inducing fourth starter, and extremely valuable if he takes a step forward to No. 2/3 status. (Say, if this much-ballyhooed new slider proves legit.) https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1373044556288122882 https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1375224556714127360 The value upside in Dobnak's contract is monumental. If the Twins activate all three options they'll control him for the next eight years for around $30 million, which is less than the Astros are paying Justin Verlander NOT to pitch in 2021 ($33 million). And if Dobnak's amazing ascent, from undrafted indy-ball pitcher and Uber driver to certified MLB starter, ultimately ends up being a flash in the pan? There's simply no risk. If the Twins need to cut bait at any point, the $9 million they'll pay Dobnak is trivial for them, life-changing for him. That last part helps explain why a deal like this can even come to fruition. It's certainly not the first time we've seen teams use their leverage over a young pitcher with limited service time to secure this sort of affordable long-term stability. In fact, Cleveland's front office was quite savvy in this regard while Derek Falvey was assistant GM. In 2015, Cleveland signed Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco – both a long way from free agency – to lengthy extensions with multiple team options. One year earlier, Chris Archer signed a five-year contract with Rocco Baldelli's Rays, despite having made just 27 career major-league starts. Archer's deal, like Kluber's and Carrasco's, included club options on two free agent years. Compared to those contracts, Dobnak's includes significantly less money, both in terms of guarantees and max payout. It also gives Minnesota a longer window of control than any of the other examples, with options extending through Dobnak's age-33 season in 2028. That makes sense. Dobnak lacks the big-league bona fides of Kluber and Carrasco when they signed, or the top-prospect luster of Archer when he did. The implications of Dobnak's background in this decision are apparent from the outside – given where he was at a few short years ago, it's gotta be hard to pass up $9 million in guaranteed money, especially when the "worst case scenario" means you pitch really well and earn $30+ million while staying in the same place for the next eight years. The Twins, for their part, will happily take the stability in exchange for a modest financial commitment. Prior to extending Dobnak, Minnesota had no starters (sans prospects and fringe rotation options like Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer) under control beyond 2023. The graphic below show just how much his extension changes that picture. The Twins will have plenty of flexibility in building their rotation going forward. Dobnak is now firmly entrenched as a sturdy building block to serve as their bedrock. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Cody Stashak, Lewis Thorpe Depth: Shaun Anderson, Ian Hamilton, Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Josh Winder THE GOOD The top of Minnesota's bullpen is well stocked with proven high-caliber arms. Taylor Rogers (3rd), Tyler Duffey (13th) and newcomer Hansel Robles (19th) all rank among the top 20 major-league relief pitchers in fWAR since 2019. Alex Colomé isn't rated quite as highly by that metric (42nd), but is a more conventionally appealing back-end arm: 15th in ERA, fourth in saves (with a 91% conversion rate), and seventh in Win Probability Added. The team's second tier of relievers also offers plenty of prowess. Jorge Alcalá posted a 2.63 ERA and 10.1 K/9 rate as a rookie in 2020, flashing the potential to join the tier above. Cody Stashak has a 3.15 ERA and 42-to-4 K/BB ratio in 40 major-league innings. Caleb Thielbar put up a 2.25 ERA and 9.9 K/9 rate last year in his triumphant resurgence at age 33. On the fringe of the reliever mix are a number of interesting waiver adds and fixer-upper projects. Names like Shaun Anderson, Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut, Derek Law, Luke Farrell, Juan Minaya and Ian Hamilton give Minnesota considerable depth – all pitchers with some big-league experience and intriguing traits pinpointed by the front office. Given the success we've seen the Twins have with guys like Matt Wisler and Ryne Harper, none of those names can be discounted as potential impact relievers in the coming year. And that's before you get to the prospect pipeline, which packs some serious punch. The Twins have a deep well of relief pitchers, rich with impressive track records, closing experience, and appealing strengths. They'll have a lot of options to get them through a long season, in which much will likely be asked of the bullpen. It's easy to have faith in the people running this ship to keep it sailing smoothly. THE BAD By parting with Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard, and Wisler during the offseason, the Twins lost 95 of their 231 bullpen innings from 2020. That's about 40% of the unit's total output, and a much higher share of the high-leverage work. With the help of those key contributors, Minnesota ranked fourth in the American League in bullpen ERA and second in fWAR. Now the relief corps will be looking to build upon that success through major turnover. It's hard to make a case on the surface that the Twins' incoming talent comes anywhere close to matching what exited; those four combined last year for a 2.85 ERA while averaging 11.6 K/9. May, in particular, was a flamethrowing strikeout machine whose dominant edge will be tough to replace. Backfilling May's overpowering presence, along with the functional reliability of Clippard and Wisler (who ranked first and second among MN relievers in innings pitched), will be a tall task. While the Twins have a large quantity of talented arms for the task, there are legit question marks surrounding most of them. Rogers is coming off a tough year, in which hitters seemingly caught on to his previously baffling repertoire. Robles is trying to rebound from an unmitigated disaster that got him non-tendered by the Angels. Colomé was ditched by the White Sox and generated little demand in free agency, despite the gaudy numbers. It's hard to look at any of these pitchers with the same confidence as Rogers, May and Romo a year ago. THE BOTTOM LINE Great bullpens are requisite for transcendent teams, especially in the modern game. Year after year, when you look at MLB's leading teams in bullpen fWAR, you find clubs that made the playoffs and often made deep runs. (Last year, the Dodgers and Rays ranked first and second, respectively.) The Twins ranked third, for a second consecutive year, and they've achieved all this success by following their own model. They identify impact relievers (often below-the-radar types), develop customized plans, and execute. They've done it time and time again, and for that reason they've earned a good amount of faith. But leaps of faith are definitely required to see this bullpen maintaining the elite level of performance that's now become the norm. They lost a lot of quality during the offseason, and are gambling heavily on their secret sauce in this 2021 bullpen recipe. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher First Base Second Base Third Base Shortstop Left Field Center Field Right Field Designated Hitter Starting Pitcher

Projected Rotation: Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker Depth: Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Bailey Ober Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands THE GOOD Let's start at the top. Kenta Maeda: The long-awaited ace and reigning Cy Young runner-up. Maeda's first year in a Minnesota uniform yielded the best performance we've seen from a Twins starting pitcher since Johan Santana left town. One of the great sadnesses of the shortened 2020 season was that we didn't get to see him do more of it. From his first turn to his last, Maeda was superb. He never gave up more than three runs in a game, or more hits than innings pitched in a start. His whiff rate was third-highest in the game behind Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito. Maeda shut down Houston with five shutout innings in the playoffs. A month prior, he came within three outs of no-hitting Milwaukee at Target Field. With an offspeed-heavy mix and impeccable command, he left opposing batters helpless. https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1295914048043786241 This was a different version of Maeda than we ever saw in Los Angeles, where he was more good than great, leading to natural questions about how repeatable the breakout is. Indeed, the righty probably won't be quite so thoroughly dominant in a full-length follow-up, but there's little reason to think he won't be a credible rotation-fronter. The question is whether José Berríos will join him in that category. He's a very good starter, and one of the most reliably durable in the game, but Berríos hasn't quite been able to take that step into the highest tier despite flirting with it frequently. Last season might look like a setback, at a glance – his 4.00 ERA and 1.32 WHIP were both highest since Berríos' rocky debut in 2016. But they're also misleading, and emblematic of 2020's small-sample haziness. He gave up five runs in four innings against Chicago on Opening Day. From that point forward, the righty posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, holding opponents to a .225 average. Same old Berríos. That's not including his postseason start against Houston, where he allowed one run on two hits in five frames. We'll see if he can find something more, and if he does, the Twins will boast one of the league's best 1-2 punches in the rotation. But they'd also be happy to get that same old Berríos again, because his baseline is a pretty damn good. And also: Minnesota has another underrated starter in the frontline discussion. Michael Pineda is finally coming into a season unhindered by injury rehab or suspension. When on the mound for Minnesota, he has consistently pitched well, and the Twins have played .677 baseball. He's 32 and playing for his next contract with free agency upcoming. As Twins GM Thad Levine put it, Pineda "has put himself in the best position he can to have a robust second chapter to his career.” https://twitter.com/NickNelsonMN/status/1361852125551157250 J.A. Happ is not a super flashy addition at age 38, but he's been basically as good as Berríos over the past handful of seasons, and he's a great asset as your fourth starter. Matt Shoemaker rounds out the rotation as a $2 million flier who probably has a 50/50 shot at lasting until the All-Star break. But as with any signing by this front office, there's upside here that's easy to see. The offseason additions might not have been too exciting, but what does excite about Minnesota's rotation picture this year is the internal depth. Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe both offer plenty of intrigue, especially with their buzz-stirring spring camps. Devin Smeltzer is a better eighth option than most other teams have. And that's before you turn to the farm. The Twins' top three pitching prospects – Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino – are verging on big-league ready. It's hard to say for sure since the 2020 minor-league season was wiped out, but had it been played, it's very possible any of those three would now be banging on the door – if not already debuted. Each is capable of a serious impact in short order, and the Twins are quietly counting on that to some degree. THE BAD One might argue the Twins have been extraordinarily lucky with the health of their starting pitchers over the past couple years. (Jake Odorizzi and Homer Bailey would disagree, but they're gone.) Berríos has continued to take the mound every fifth day, as usual. Maeda did the same in 2020, while transitioning from starter-reliever hybrid to relative workhorse. He experienced no issues, even after accruing a career-high 115 pitches in his no-hit bid. Pineda, so often injured before coming to Minnesota, has been perfectly healthy outside of the suspension. (Phantom DL stints not withstanding.) I'm not over here to trying to jinx anything. But it has to be acknowledged that this probably won't last forever. The rigors of being a starting pitcher in the major leagues are immense, and right now these guys are grappling with the transition back to a full-season workload, in the wake of 2020's disruption. If one of those top three starters goes down? Suddenly the Twins rotation doesn't look quite so sturdy anymore. Happ might be a nice luxury in the back half, but he's not necessarily someone you want to be depending on toward the front. Shoemaker, Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer all have their own varying levels of promise and mystique, but also serious hurdles to overcome. The top prospects may well all need more seasoning, These aren't unique problems – all pitchers across the league will be facing the same readjustment challenges this year, and no team has infinite starting depth – but the Twins will need a bit of luck on their side to fulfill their potential in the rotation. They're relying heavily on some internal developments playing out well, because it's questionable whether the free agent talent incoming (Happ, Shoemaker) is better than the talent outgoing (Odorizzi, Rich Hill). Questionable might be putting it kindly. THE BOTTOM LINE This is a deep, well-rounded group with a high ceiling and a number of electrifying wild cards in play. Odorizzi is a significant loss, which should not be discounted, but the fact is, the Twins managed to post the second-best rotation ERA, FIP, and fWAR in the American League last year without him. An important thing to keep in mind is that, by retaining all prospect capital in the offseason, the Twins have positioned themselves nicely for a trade as the deadline approaches. That'll probably be a big storyline this summer, but I'm more eager to see what the system can provide internally after four years of remarkable progression under the new front office. "After four years of assembling the infrastructure and creating a culture of fearless development," wrote Dan Hayes at The Athletic recently, "the Twins front office feels as if its pitching pipeline is finally ready to churn out impressive arms at a more consistent rate." Their exhaustive work will be put to the test in what's certain to be a daunting and discombobulating year for MLB starting pitchers, with workloads thrown askew. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher First Base Second Base Third Base Shortstop Left Field Center Field Right Field Designated Hitter

Projected Starter: Nelson Cruz Likely Backup: Miguel Sanó Depth: Luis Arráez, Mitch Garver Prospects: Aaron Sabato, Brent Rooker THE GOOD There is no player in baseball better suited for the term "designated hitter" than Nelson Cruz. Hitting is all he does – the Twins wouldn't dream of playing him for an inning in the field at this point – but he does it unbelievably well. By almost any holistic offensive metric, Cruz has been the second-best hitter in MLB over the past two seasons, trailing only Mike Trout. The peak of Cruz's career has coincided with its twilight, and up to this point he hasn't shown much sign of showing down. His production in 2020 was basically right on par with the prior season, when he slugged 41 homers with 108 RBIs. Cruz batted third or fourth in every game he started, and lived up to the billing with monster production that was at times simply outrageous. From August 17th through September 8th, for example, he slashed .343/.450/.761 with nine home runs in 20 games. Even from the most optimistic view, it's probably fair to build some regression into expectations for Cruz. The man turns 41 in July, after all, and outstanding production – much less absolute top-tier production – is rarified air at such an age, to say the least. The nice thing is that Cruz has been SO GOOD that he can afford to experience a significant drop-off, and still be a high-impact designated hitter. If you took 100 points off his .992 OPS in 2020, it still would've been the best for a DH in the AL by 50 points. And as far as his anticipated age-related drop-off is concerned ... Cruz made a bit of a statement on that front in his first spring training game earlier his month: https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1367207298783969281 THE BAD I said earlier of Cruz: "up to this point he hasn't shown much sign of showing down." That's not to say he's shown NO sign of slowing down. In the second half of September last year, his bat tanked like we've never really seen as a Twin; albeit in a very small sample. His final 11 games, which followed the aforementioned ludicrous 20-game stretch, saw Cruz hit just .154/.267/.256 with one home run and one double, missing a week with knee soreness in the middle. For the season, Cruz's Statcast measures were great, but they weren't quite on par with years prior. Measures which were previously in the top 1-2% of all hitters were now more in the top 10-15%. No one's gonna scoff at an Average Exit Velocity, HardHit% or xwOBA in the upper-80th percentiles, but in the previous three years, Cruz was literally 98th-99th percentile in each of those categories, without fail. As you look at his mid-to-long range xwOBA trends, the downward progression is quite noticeable: Under normal circumstances, the above trends wouldn't be too noteworthy, especially for a player with Cruz's track record. But again: we're talking about a guy who turns 41 in three months. While it's difficult to envision him dropping off to the point where he's not an asset at DH (if healthy), it would be no real surprise if he morphs into more of a low-average, high-strikeout, all-or-nothing type this year, rather than the totally dominant force we're accustomed to. THE BOTTOM LINE Time is undefeated. Then again, from what we've seen during his tenure in Minnesota, the same can basically be said for Nelson Cruz. I find it hard to bet against the man even if all historical data suggests it's a pretty good bet. The Twins are well protected in the event of injuries or seismic drop-off, since he's on a one-year deal and they have a wealth of bats – majors and minors – capable of rotating through the DH spot to keep it juiced. Suffice to say this position is the last anyone needs to worry about. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher First Base Second Base Third Base Shortstop Left Field Center Field Right Field

Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner THE GOOD Max Kepler is a pristine athlete who does basically everything well, from a skills standpoint. He's very fast, routinely ranking around the league's 75th percentile in sprint speed. Combine that with his strong outfield instincts and technique, and you've got one of the game's top-rated defenders in right. https://twitter.com/BarstoolHubbs/status/1295942989341229056 Since 2019, FanGraphs pegs Kepler as the fourth-most valuable defensive right fielder in baseball, trailing only Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger. He might not have the arm strength of some others, but Kepler is as good as they come at tracking down flies. At the plate, Kepler is a smart and disciplined hitter who consistently takes good at-bats. Year after year, he's been well above average when it comes to drawing walks, limiting strikeouts, and making contact when swinging. As you can see in the Statcast chart above, this was all true in 2020. The power hasn't been as reliable, but Kepler certainly showed what he's capable of in 2019, when he slugged .519 and swatted 36 home runs. If he can move back in that direction this year, while continuing to excel defensively, he'll be a rock-solid asset and perhaps even an All-Star in right. https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1286827782111211520 Meanwhile, if Kepler gets hurt, or is needed in center field, the Twins are well equipped to fill his RF vacancy. Alex Kirilloff could slide over to his more natural outfield position, opening up left for one of many other candidates. Or Trevor Larnach, who sure seems ready to make an impact, could step in. The Twins' youth movement sets them up well for a Kepler-related pivot, and if the kids aren't quite ready, they've got plenty of appeling interim options on hand between Jake Cave, Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick, Keon Broxton, and the like. THE BAD Two years ago, Kepler seemingly turned a long-awaited corner offensively. He hadn't previously been a bad hitter, per se, but to be a standout in right field, greatness is the standard. It's one he has failed to reach in every season except that 2019 breakout as leadoff man for the Bomba Squad. The 2020 campaign, which started so promisingly with back-to-back home runs against White Sox ace Lucas Giolito in the opener, represented a troubling backstep for Kep. After hitting those two solo shots on Opening Day, Kepler slugged just .404, with seven homers and nine doubles in 47 contests. For the season, his batting average sagged to .228, and he was futile against southpaws, slashing .128/.208/.170 in 53 PA. Despite his good plate approach and high contact rates, Kepler has generally struggled to find open grass. His BABIP over the past three years is the worst in baseball, and that owes to a variety of factors: predictable hitting profile, defensive shifts, and plain old bad luck among them. Matthew Trueblood wrote here recently about Kepler's primary obstacle, and how he can overcome it. "It’s pretty clear that Kepler needs to make adjustments at the plate," Matthew argues. "He’s evolved impressively over the course of his big-league career, but his inability to generate hard contact against certain pitches or to certain parts of the park (plus the inherent disadvantage of being a lefty pull hitter, in the modern game) is putting a cap on his potential production." Kepler made real inroads against these weaknesses in 2019, but the reemergence of familiar flaws leaves his outlook in doubt. If he can't pump up the offensive production this year, he'll feel pressure from big bats rising up underneath. THE BOTTOM LINE Kepler's future with the Twins is in flux. They've got high-caliber corner bats knocking on the door to the majors (with Kirilloff probably already stepping through). Kepler remains locked under contract for three more years, but if he keeps hitting like a center fielder, you have to wonder if the Twins will trade him to another team that might find him more valuable there – or part with Byron Buxton and move Kepler to center themselves. For now, right field is his. So they'll hope he can recapture the outstanding offense of 2019, when he was a legitimate force. At 28, we'll see if he can find it again. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher First Base Second Base Third Base Shortstop Left Field Center Field

After spending nearly a month down in Fort Myers, our intrepid beat man John Bonnes is returning to Minnesota on Wednesday. Before traveling back, he joined us for a 90-minute live-stream. John and I broke down several storylines and updates, including Kenta Maeda's Opening Day assignment, minor-league cuts, surprising performers, and roster battles. We were joined by some special guests along the way. You can watch the episode on (or the video below), and can always catch future live-streams there or on our Twitter and Facebook pages. You can also always listen to new episodes via audio by subscribing to our podcast.

Projected Starter: Byron Buxton Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Max Kepler, Keon Broxton Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Misael Urbina THE GOOD Ever since he was a teenager, Byron Buxton's greatness was preordained. He was drafted second overall out of high school. He became the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball. He debuted in the major leagues at age 21, and won a Platinum Glove at age 23. Year after year, he's been situated as a centerpiece in Minnesota's plans. They rightfully view him as a singularly transformative force who can elevate a team to new heights. When Buxton's been on the field over the past two years, they've won 70% of their games. It's all too easy to focus on the time he's spent off the field, but let's be clear: this is a premier athlete, at the height of his physical prime. He's 27 years old, and for now, he's healthy. We can dream on the (very real) possibilities. Buxton's 2018 season was a total loss, sabotaged by front-to-back injury woes. But when you subtract that, his performance has been phenomenal since a breakout 2017 campaign. He has posted 7.5 fWAR in 266 games, mixing elite defensive value with outstanding offensive production – especially in the past couple seasons, where he's emerged as a power-hitting force. It is here that we've seen the most progression and growth from Buxton as a hitter. As you compare his Statcast measurements from 2017 and last year, you can see this pretty clearly. What hasn't changed is that Buxton is unbelievably fast, and amazing at covering ground in the outfield. What has changed is that he's now crushing the ball with the best of 'em. In 2019, Buxton set new career highs in basically every Statcast metric for power: Barrel %, Exit Velocity, Launch Angle, xSLG, Hard Hit %. In 2020, he was better in every category. Between those two seasons, he launched 23 home runs in 126 games with a .534 slugging percentage. Buxton is a bona fide slugger, who also plays world-class defense in center. That's not a combination you come across very often. Of course, Buxton's appeal doesn't doesn't end with his power stroke. What makes him a uniquely exciting and valuable player is his unrivaled speed. He can beat you by bashing it over the fence, or tapping a dribbler to the shortstop. The Twins and Rocco Baldelli haven't opted to call many steals for him lately, but it's a weapon in his arsenal (he has an 87% career success rate) and Buxton can take extra bases with leisure. He keeps pitchers and defenses on edge. He's a threat at all times. When he's healthy and in his groove, Byron Buxton impacts every phase of the game and single-handedly shifts outcomes. How many players have we been able to say that about? THE BAD Needless to say, keeping Buxton healthy and in his groove has been an overwhelming challenge. Dating back to 2018 he has missed more than half of the team's games, and the difference in outcomes with and without him has been dramatic. The Twins have taken extensive measures to try and protect their superstar asset, to little avail. Last year he was healthier than usual, playing in two-thirds of Minnesota's regular-season games, but still ended the season hurt and unavailable. His surgically repaired shoulder reportedly continued to bother him (though you wouldn't know it by his results when swinging), and late in the year, he suffered a concussion after taking a fastball to the head. No amount of planning or safety-focused coaching is going to be able to prevent things like this. More broadly, Buxton's game is based on aggressiveness and borderline-reckless speed. If he's not going all out, he's not Byron. All the Twins can do is embed small tweaks (such as launching off one foot for leaping attempts the wall) and hope for a little better luck. All parties involved are beyond due for it. Alas, it'll be important to be prepared for his absence, with short-term and long-term contingencies. For the former scenario, Jake Cave is ready to step in. In the event of a lengthier absence, the Twins are more likely to slide Max Kepler over and activate their depth in the corners. Cave and Kepler are both capable, but sizable downgrades from the incumbent. Should Buxton find a way to stay mostly healthy this year, the key focus will be refining his approach at the plate. I've given up on the idea of him being a remotely disciplined hitter, and Buxton has proven he can make it work with a swing-at-everything mindset. His .844 OPS last season, when he drew two walks against 36 strikeouts, is evidence enough. But the .267 on-base percentage was painful, offsetting some of his power-driven value. If Buxton's future is as a streaky, slump-prone, pure power bat, that's not the worst thing. It's certainly how the Twins treated him last year, batting him consistently at the middle-bottom of the lineup and having him attempt only three total steals. But if he can just become a shade more selective at the plate, harnessing the pure hitting skill and modicum of discipline that contributed to a .310 average and .364 OBP at Triple-A, Buxton can take the next step to MVP-level stardom. THE BOTTOM LINE This is a massive season for Byron Buxton. He's at a crux point in his career, with free agency two years away and his reputation as a player on the line. Will he finally stay on the field, gaining the necessary comfort and consistency at the plate to fulfill his offensive potential while staying golden in center? If so, Buxton will probably be one of the two or three most impactful players in the league. If 2021 brings more of the same – checkered availability along with offensive ups and downs – he'll be lined up to hit the open market more as an intriguing gamble for some team, as opposed to a highly coveted nine-figure stud. The stakes aren't quite as high for the Twins, who by now are acclimated to playing without him, and fairly well positioned in terms of depth. But they know as well as anyone: Buxton is the single biggest wild-card in their quest to get over the hump. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher First Base Second Base Third Base Shortstop Left Field

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Luis Arráez, Brent Rooker Prospects: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner THE GOOD The Twins lost a pair of quality players in Eddie Rosario and LaMonte Wade Jr., but still have no shortage of corner-outfield depth. Jake Cave is still around. Brent Rooker stepped in last year and showed his potent ability. Waiver pickup Kyle Garlick and non-roster invite Keon Broxton are making strong early impressions in camp. Top prospects Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner aren't too far off. But all of these names are secondary to THE top prospect, Alex Kirilloff, who is unquestionably on deck in left field. The Twins may opt to delay his arrival for a bit, but it's inevitable. Once he's here, Kirilloff will very likely be sticking for good. The Twins left no doubt as to their belief in his readiness, when they called up Kirilloff last September to make his major-league debut in a postseason elimination game. The 22-year-old rose to the occasion with a ringing single and a diving catch in right field. https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1311374656335679489 When recently naming Kirilloff Twins Daily's No. 1 prospect, we listed off the many strengths that paint him as an immediate impact player. He's got a finely tuned swing and extremely advanced approach at the plate. He's strong, quick, and adaptive. While it's easy to fall into hyperbole and exaggerated expectations for a premium prospect of this caliber, it really does feel like his predecessor Rosario's career slash line – .277/.310/.478 – will eventually be Kirilloff's floor on a year-to-year basis. His ceiling is somewhere in Christian Yelich territory. https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1370079829354237956 Kirilloff is gonna hit in the majors, and maybe right away. The question is when he will get his chance. The Twins stand to gain an extra year of control over the outfielder (his age-29 season) by waiting until late-April at least to call him up. Although Dan Hayes of The Athletic has reported that "the Twins are open-minded to promoting Kirilloff if he’s the best option," that's a very subjective "if." Given his lack of experience in the high minors, it's not a huge leap to say Kirilloff could use a bit more time – especially with the number of solid options on hand to serve as interim fill-ins. The Twins could, say, platoon Cave and Garlick or Rooker for three weeks and have a perfectly adequate setup in left field. Or they could start Arráez out there regularly if the infield is healthy. (Though they don't seem inclined to do so.) Like I said, no shortage of depth. And while that may or may not cost Kirilloff his chance to break camp with the Twins, it's a very good sign for the outlook of left field as a position. THE BAD It should be noted that left field is a relatively unfamiliar assignment for Kirilloff. Of his 2,077 professional innings played in the field as a professional, only 78 have been in left. He's made nine starts there compared to 181 in right and 35 at first base. In fact, he's made more career starts in center field (14) than in left. Kirilloff's lone major-league start came in right field. Whenever he first jogs out down the third base line toward Target Field's home run porch this year, it'll be very unfamiliar territory. The variances between baseball's two corner-outfield positions are not night-and-day, but also not insignificant. There's a learning curve involved with playing on the opposite side regularly, and also, there's a reason Kirilloff has played primarily in right: it's his better position. With limited mobility and a good arm (albeit less good after Tommy John surgery), he profiles much better in right, or at first base. Kirilloff should be just fine in left, and Rosario hardly set a lofty standard, but this doesn't quite fit the front office's grand overall defensive vision. Also, when you're a so-so defensive left fielder, the offensive bar is pretty high. Confident as I am in his abilities, it can't be assumed Kirilloff will flourish right off the bat. Even Yelich, whose name I generously invoked earlier as a high-end comp, took several years in the majors to become a truly special hitter. Expectations should be kept in check for left field in 2021. Kirilloff might step in and take off, but there's a better chance he'll experience the same slumps and setbacks of any MLB rookie, and maybe even need some time at Triple-A, where has yet to take an at-bat. THE BOTTOM LINE Long-term, Kirilloff probably won't stick in left field, barring some unexpected advances in terms of defensive range and skill. He projects as more of a right fielder or at first baseman, but those positions are both spoken for at the moment. With Rosario's departure leaving left field wide open, the Twins will happily unleash their best prospect there. What's important is finding a way to get Kirilloff's bat into the lineup. That might not happen right away, but barring unforeseen events, it's gonna happen. This is a transitional year for left field, albeit one bursting with upside and tantalizing promise. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher First Base Second Base Third Base Shortstop