Nick Nelson

It's the same old story: Minnesota's center field situation will be the envy of nearly every team in the league in 2021 ... IF they can keep their guy on the field. That's been a perpetual issue.Projected Starter: Byron Buxton Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Max Kepler, Keon Broxton Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Misael Urbina THE GOOD Ever since he was a teenager, Byron Buxton's greatness was preordained. He was drafted second overall out of high school. He became the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball. He debuted in the major leagues at age 21, and won a Platinum Glove at age 23. Year after year, he's been situated as a centerpiece in Minnesota's plans. They rightfully view him as a singularly transformative force who can elevate a team to new heights. When Buxton's been on the field over the past two years, they've won 70% of their games. It's all too easy to focus on the time he's spent off the field, but let's be clear: this is a premier athlete, at the height of his physical prime. He's 27 years old, and for now, he's healthy. We can dream on the (very real) possibilities. Buxton's 2018 season was a total loss, sabotaged by front-to-back injury woes. But when you subtract that, his performance has been phenomenal since a breakout 2017 campaign. He has posted 7.5 fWAR in 266 games, mixing elite defensive value with outstanding offensive production – especially in the past couple seasons, where he's emerged as a power-hitting force. It is here that we've seen the most progression and growth from Buxton as a hitter. As you compare his Statcast measurements from 2017 and last year, you can see this pretty clearly. What hasn't changed is that Buxton is unbelievably fast, and amazing at covering ground in the outfield. What has changed is that he's now crushing the ball with the best of 'em. Download attachment: buxton2017.png Download attachment: buxton2020.png In 2019, Buxton set new career highs in basically every Statcast metric for power: Barrel %, Exit Velocity, Launch Angle, xSLG, Hard Hit %. In 2020, he was better in every category. Between those two seasons, he launched 23 home runs in 126 games with a .534 slugging percentage. Buxton is a bona fide slugger, who also plays world-class defense in center. That's not a combination you come across very often. If 2021 brings more of the same – checkered availability along with offensive ups and downs – he'll be lined up to hit the open market more as an intriguing gamble for some team, as opposed to a highly coveted nine-figure stud. The stakes aren't quite as high for the Twins, who by now are acclimated to playing without him, and fairly well positioned in terms of depth. But they know as well as anyone: Buxton is the single biggest wild-card in their quest to get over the hump. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopLeft Field Click here to view the article

This seems perfectly reasonable to me. I think you can make a legit argument that it's more pointless to send Rooker to practice at the alternate site than Kirilloff, and it also doesn't make much sense to have Rooker sitting on the bench in the majors. Twins can very easily make this case for buying time with AK.

The Eddie Rosario era has ended. Minnesota's longtime mainstay in left field is gone, now playing for a division rival. In 2021, a new era is set to get underway for the Twins, with top prospect Alex Kirilloff in line to overtake the position. It's only a matter of when.Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Luis Arráez, Brent Rooker Prospects: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner THE GOOD The Twins lost a pair of quality players in Eddie Rosario and LaMonte Wade Jr., but still have no shortage of corner-outfield depth. Jake Cave is still around. Brent Rooker stepped in last year and showed his potent ability. Waiver pickup Kyle Garlick and non-roster invite Keon Broxton are making strong early impressions in camp. Top prospects Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner aren't too far off. But all of these names are secondary to THE top prospect, Alex Kirilloff, who is unquestionably on deck in left field. The Twins may opt to delay his arrival for a bit, but it's inevitable. Once he's here, Kirilloff will very likely be sticking for good. The Twins left no doubt as to their belief in his readiness, when they called up Kirilloff last September to make his major-league debut in a postseason elimination game. The 22-year-old rose to the occasion with a ringing single and a diving catch in right field. Kirilloff is gonna hit in the majors, and maybe right away. The question is when he will get his chance. The Twins stand to gain an extra year of control over the outfielder (his age-29 season) by waiting until late-April at least to call him up. Although Dan Hayes of The Athletic has reported that "the Twins are open-minded to promoting Kirilloff if he’s the best option," that's a very subjective "if." Given his lack of experience in the high minors, it's not a huge leap to say Kirilloff could use a bit more time – especially with the number of solid options on hand to serve as interim fill-ins. The Twins could, say, platoon Cave and Garlick or Rooker for three weeks and have a perfectly adequate setup in left field. Or they could start Arráez out there regularly if the infield is healthy. (Though they don't seem inclined to do so.) Like I said, no shortage of depth. And while that may or may not cost Kirilloff his chance to break camp with the Twins, it's a very good sign for the outlook of left field as a position. THE BAD It should be noted that left field is a relatively unfamiliar assignment for Kirilloff. Of his 2,077 professional innings played in the field as a professional, only 78 have been in left. He's made nine starts there compared to 181 in right and 35 at first base. In fact, he's made more career starts in center field (14) than in left. Kirilloff's lone major-league start came in right field. Whenever he first jogs out down the third base line toward Target Field's home run porch this year, it'll be very unfamiliar territory. The variances between baseball's two corner-outfield positions are not night-and-day, but also not insignificant. There's a learning curve involved with playing on the opposite side regularly, and also, there's a reason Kirilloff has played primarily in right: it's his better position. With limited mobility and a good arm (albeit less good after Tommy John surgery), he profiles much better in right, or at first base. Kirilloff should be just fine in left, and Rosario hardly set a lofty standard, but this doesn't quite fit the front office's grand overall defensive vision. Also, when you're a so-so defensive left fielder, the offensive bar is pretty high. Confident as I am in his abilities, it can't be assumed Kirilloff will flourish right off the bat. Even Yelich, whose name I generously invoked earlier as a high-end comp, took several years in the majors to become a truly special hitter. Expectations should be kept in check for left field in 2021. Kirilloff might step in and take off, but there's a better chance he'll experience the same slumps and setbacks of any MLB rookie, and maybe even need some time at Triple-A, where has yet to take an at-bat. THE BOTTOM LINE Long-term, Kirilloff probably won't stick in left field, barring some unexpected advances in terms of defensive range and skill. He projects as more of a right fielder or at first baseman, but those positions are both spoken for at the moment. With Rosario's departure leaving left field wide open, the Twins will happily unleash their best prospect there. What's important is finding a way to get Kirilloff's bat into the lineup. That might not happen right away, but barring unforeseen events, it's gonna happen. This is a transitional year for left field, albeit one bursting with upside and tantalizing promise. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstop Click here to view the article

It's been 20 days since pitchers and catchers first reported to Fort Myers, and we're 21 days away from Opening Day. We're officially eclipsing the halfway point of spring training. On Wednesday. we live-streamed with our man on the scene in Florida to cover key storylines, and you can watch it back below.John Bonnes has been down in Florida for a couple weeks now. He's been toiling, traversing, and TikToking, all in the name of bringing you all firsthand details and insights from Twins camp. In our latest Spring Training Live show, we got the direct download from Fort Myers. On Wednesday night, I picked John's brain about early exhibition action, noteworthy observations from camp, and updates on developing stories. We were also joined by Twins Daily's Matthew Trueblood, who unpacked his theoretical contract extension frameworks for Byron Buxton and José Berríos. Both players recently addressed possible talks with the club. Follow/subscribe to Twins Daily on , Twitter and Facebook so you never miss a future live broadcast. You can also always catch these shows via audio by subscribing to our podcast. Click here to view the article

When is the last time the Minnesota Twins had a truly gifted defensive shortstop? It's been a long time, and there's a good chance this organization has never seen a fielder as good as Andrelton Simmons at the position. How big of an impact can all-world defense (assuming he still possesses it) make at the infield's most critical spot?Projected Starter: Andrelton Simmons Likely Backup: Jorge Polanco Depth: Luis Arráez, Nick Gordon Prospects: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier THE GOOD Simmons isn't just a good defender, or a great defender, or even an elite defender. He is a generational icon, whose name already sits beside Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel in the annals of all-time gloves at shortstop. At Baseball.FYI last summer, Jacob Kornhauser suggested that Simmons may go down as MLB's best defensive player ever, period. His article points out that Simmons has accumulated 26.7 dWAR through nine seasons in the majors, already good for 14th in history and putting him on track to eventually surpass the all-time leader Smith, who took 19 years to reach 44.2 dWAR. "He makes the hard plays look routine and makes the routine plays look downright boring," Kornhauser wrote of Simmons. That's an apt description for the four-time Gold Glover in action. With his supernatural instincts and unparalleled arm strength, he's a marvel to behold at the infield's most challenging position. You'll see what I'm talking about in the highlight reel below. (Jump to the ~6:30 mark, and Simmons' play against Travis d'Arnaud of the Mets, for a prime example of a play that would simply never happen with Jorge Polanco – or virtually any other player – at short.) By nudging Polanco to second base and joining forces with a hopefully-healthy Josh Donaldson on the left side, Simmons represents a clear and decisive upgrade for Minnesota's defensive unit, potentially helping turn it into one of the league's most effective. Simmons' offense certainly pales in comparison to his defense, but he's far from a major liability at the plate. In six of his nine MLB seasons, his OPS+ has fallen between 90 and 110, which is basically within a standard deviation of average. He's a high-contact guy who puts the ball on the ground a lot, and will probably bat at the bottom of the Twins order. If Simmons simply hits to his .269/.317/.379 (.696) career line, he'll be a fairly typical producer compared to league-wide norms in the No. 8 and 9 lineup spots. The Twins can live with that given their offensive strength at every other position. Even with the consistently ordinary bat, Simmons has earned MVP votes on three separate occasions, including 2017 when he finished eighth and 2018 when he finished 15th. The defense is simply that good, and that impactful. If he's back on top of his game in 2021, Simmons will be a transformative figure for the Twins. THE BAD The 2020 season is one Simmons would like to forget. He hurt his left ankle for a second consecutive year, produced little punch at the plate (zero home runs and seven doubles in 127 PA), and opted out with a handful of games remaining, later revealing his struggles with mental health. There's no reason to think he can't put all that behind him and move forward with a fresh slate. But what's difficult to shake when evaluating the 31-year-old's latest campaign is the conspicuous drop-off in defensive metrics. Advanced fielding stats are inexact, prone to variation and noise. But up until last year, Simmons has consistently rated very, very well in these metrics, pretty much across the board. As you can see below, his Outs Above Average according to Statcast sat between 15 and 19 in the prior four years (with the highest total coming in 2019, when he was limited to 103 games). Last year, OAA had him at NEGATIVE-one in 30 games. Download attachment: simmonsstatcast.png Here's how Simmons has compared to his peers by OAA over the past four years: 2017: 99th percentile2018: 98th percentile2019: 99th percentile2020: 24th percentileThat's an astonishing drop-off that is impossible to ignore, samples aside. Switching views to another metric, here's how Simmons has rated according to UZR/150 since he arrived in the majors in 2012 (keep in mind this is a rate stat, not a counting stat, so it should theoretically not be as effected by the shortened season): 2012: 26.12013: 14.42014: 16.02015: 17.82016: 18.12017: 18.52018: 19.52019: 13.82020: 4.0Again, what is so striking here is how incredibly consistent Simmons' top-tier defensive production was year after year, up until it plummeted. Clearly Simmons had a lot going on last year, physically and mentally. If he can turn the page and return to form, he's a slam-dunk addition with the deal Minnesota landed him on (one year, $10.5 million). But the fact they were able to get him on such favorable terms, while both other members of free agency's leading shortstop trio (Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien) both got much more guaranteed money from other teams, leads to the inescapable conclusion there's a widespread skepticism about that scenario playing out. THE BOTTOM LINE The Simmons signing is the most interesting we've seen from this Twins front office, in terms of strategic vision and implications. If it works out as hoped, he'll have a dramatic impact on this team and its fundamental strengths. With so much offseason talk about pitching, and consternation over the failure to add big-name arms, not enough attention is paid to moves like this. Run prevention is the name of the game, and planting elite defenders at crucial positions in the field supports that directive. At the height of his powers, Simmons will make Twins pitchers, as well as the fielders around him, better. But that's dependent on his defense rebounding in a big way after taking an unprecedented downturn in 2020. As Kornhauer noted in his piece at Baseball.FYI: "In his nine seasons, Simmons has posted an overall WAR of 36.3, 26.7 of which is from his defense. In other words, he likely wouldn't be in the league anymore if it weren't for his defensive prowess." The return of that prowess, and to what extent, will define his value to the Twins in 2021. If he can't answer the call or stay healthy, Minnesota has a fine backup in Polanco, but their secondary depth is very iffy and Polanco is already a starter elsewhere. For this reason, I'll be curious to see if the Twins carry another SS-capable player like J.T. Riddle or Andrew Romine at the end of their bench. For now, we eagerly await Simmons' spring debut following a late arrival in camp. It sounds like that may come Friday. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird Base Click here to view the article

Almost every year, Donaldson ranks near the top of all hitters in terms of drawing walks and hitting the ball hard when he makes contact. As a result, he's been one of the most productive hitters in baseball. So it's a good sign he was continuing to do those things when on the field. These are not vague sabermetric calculations, they are measures of what he "actually did." Not sure what's controversial or even debatable about this.

The players with the best underlying indicators tend to produce the most runs. So... yes?

Around this time last year, we were dreaming on what Josh Donaldson might be able to bring at third base. Now, we're fretting over hot corner contingency plans following a first season with the Twins that cast serious doubt on his durability. But Donaldson's towering upside remains.Projected Starter: Josh Donaldson Likely Backup: Luis Arráez Depth: Willians Astudillo, Travis Blankenhorn Prospects: Keoni Cavaco, Jose Miranda THE GOOD A year ago when previewing this position, it was all about the Josh Donaldson hype. The Twins had signed JD to an historic $92 million contract, and fans were still buzzing from this emphatic and unprecedented "all-in" type move coming off a 103-win season. Minnesota's front office went big on the Bringer of Rain, envisioning him as the final piece to put their already upper-tier squad over the top. He still can be that. Donaldson may have a missed large chunk of 2020, and gotten another year older, but he's still very capable of being a game-changing weapon. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond Base Click here to view the article

From 2013-18, Brian Dozier was reliably Minnesota's starting second baseman on Opening Day. Six straight years. The upcoming season opener will be their third since his departure, and the Twins intend to start a third different player at the position: This time, Dozier's former double-play partner. Can Jorge Polanco stick?Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco Likely Backup: Luis Arráez Depth: Nick Gordon, Travis Blankenhorn Prospects: Jose Miranda, Yunior Severino THE GOOD Jorge Polanco might finally be ready to unlock his potential as a major-league player. It still hasn't happened up to this point, mainly because he's always been limited by questionable defensive value at shortstop. Even in his All-Star first half of 2019, Polanco's appeal came more from his bat than his glove, and over the past couple seasons his flaws at short have become all the more evident and impactful. Polanco is better-suited for second base. That much was clear to the Twins when they moved him there full-time in Triple-A, prior to his promotion to MLB, where he relocated to shortstop out ot necessity. This winter's signing of Andelton Simmons allows Polanco to finally move back to second, where his skill set is a more optimal fit. With this in mind, it comes as no surprise that the Twins are very high on Polanco's defensive outlook at the new (old) position. So is he. "I think I can be pretty dang good at second base," the 27-year-old told reporters recently. Similarly, the idea of a healthy Polanco rebounding to his stellar level of offensive production from 2019 sounds great in theory, but needs to be tested in practice. He underwent ankle surgery prior to 2020 too, and it clearly didn't help much, so there are no guarantees with the latest procedure. Even if this repair takes, Polanco needs to prove he's a significantly above-hitter because on whole, the evidence suggests otherwise. Polanco had an .866 OPS in 2019 when he appeared as the AL's starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. Since then, he has slashed .268/.327/.411 (.738) in 511 plate appearances. Prior to 2019, he had a .272/.329/.420 (.749) line in the majors. So, a preponderance of evidence leads us to conclude Polanco's half-season of brilliance in '19 was more of a fluke than the mediocrity we've seen since. If he proves to be more of an average hitter, and an ordinary defender at second, Polanco won't necessarily be a liability, but he won't be any great asset either – perhaps not even an upgrade over the guy he's replacing as the second base starter. If we reach a point somewhere in the season where everyone's healthy and Arráez is outperforming the starter Polanco while in a utility role, it'll be interesting to see how things play out. THE BOTTOM LINE One way or another, Arráez figures to see a fair share of time at second base, filling in while Polanco is hurt, resting, or needed at short. We've grown familiar with what he has to offer at the position. But Polanco presents a very new look, and an intriguing one full of upside. As things stand, the Twins appear committed to him as their mainstay at second this year and beyond. It'd be swell if that works out. Polanco is under contract for three more years with a pair of additional team options at the back end, so if this transition takes he could be in line for a Dozier-like reign at second base. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst Base Click here to view the article

Exit velocity is an indicator -- a means to an end. I don't think it's something for a player to aspire to on its own. But let's be clear: it's very strongly correlated with elite offensive production. 2020 Avg Exit Velo Leaders: 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. 2. Miguel Sano 3. Christian Yelich 4. Mike Trout 5. Teoscar Hernandez 2019 Avg Exit Velo Leaders: 1. Nelson Cruz 2. Mike Trout 3. Jorge Soler 4. Christian Yelich 5. Pete Alonso

Finally arriving at camp unhindered by controversy or constraint, Miguel Sanó seeks to fulfill his prodigious potential as a prototypical power bat at first base. Can he finally put it all together?Projected Starter: Miguel Sanó Likely Backup: Willians Astudillo Depth: Brent Rooker, Mitch Garver Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Aaron Sabato THE GOOD Miguel Sanó is, by all accounts, firing up at spring camp with a fully clean slate. That's not something that could have been said about him last summer (late start due to COVID-19), or in 2019 (came to Fort Myers with heel laceration that required surgery), or in 2018 (under league investigation for assault allegations). This year Sanó appears to be in a good place both physically and mentally, which is welcome news for him at a crux point of his career. Despite plainly having all the talent and ability in the world, Sanó will turn 28 in May and has yet to put together a complete season in the majors. On the bright side, the closest he's come was in the last normal MLB season, 2019: Sanó joined the team late and made up for lost time by slashing .247/.346/.576 with 34 home runs and 79 RBIs in just 105 games. Extrapolate that over a full season and you're talking about 50-HR, 100+ RBI production that naturally tends to generate MVP steam. It was a recipe that helped Justin Morneau take home the award 15 years ago with a 34-HR, 130-RBI season in which he bolstered his case with timely hitting and sharp defense at first base. These are both areas where Sanó has shown he can follow suit. Throughout his career, Sanó has routinely risen to the occasion in run-producing opportunities. In 2019 he slugged .649 with runners on base, and last year – even amidst his overall struggles – he posted an .868 OPS with RISP, 100 points higher than his overall mark. Sanó has all the tools to be an elite first baseman of the traditional mold – a dominant and intimidating offensive force who is above-average with the glove. He hits the ball as hard as anyone in the major leagues, with exit velocities and barrel rates that consistently rank at the very top of the scale. His rare, generational raw power can make him a truly special player if he stays healthy and overcomes the shortcomings that have held him back from a sustained breakthrough. THE BAD Sanó is a huge man with a ferociously violent swing, which enables him to produce such thunderous contact when he connects. That swing also can very easily get thrown out of whack and caught up in bad habits, making Sanó extremely prone to slumps and strikeouts. We saw this issue sabotage a 2020 season that was heading in a promising direction. Shaking off a slow start, the first baseman got on a roll in mid-August. Over an admittedly hand-picked one-month span, from August 11th through September 10th, Sanó slashed .304/.407/.641 with seven home runs and 10 doubles in 27 games, carrying the load at times for a lineup that perpetually failed to click. From that point forward, however, it was Sanó who perpetually failed to click. In 13 games following September 10th, he hit .102/.120/.286 with an egregious 25-to-1 K/BB ratio in 50 plate appearances, looking as bad at the plate as we've ever seen him. The slump spilled over into the playoffs where he went 1-for-7 against Houston, following a 1-for-12 showing against New York in 2019. Streakiness will always inherently be a part of Sanó's game, and you accept it when the good healthily outweighs the bad, like in 2019. But by the end of 2020 his wayward swing mechanics and contact woes felt more out of hand than ever. THE BOTTOM LINE You don't have to squint hard to see the true potential of Sanó coming to fruition, even after all the trials and setbacks up to this point. He's an imposing figure in the box. As authoritatively as he hits the ball, and as much as he lifts it, he'll be an absolute force so long as he can make contact with any frequency. It's far from a given that'll happen, especially when you consider the lack of overall forward progress since Sanó debuted in the majors some six years ago. Last season he posted his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate as a big-leaguer. But in 2019 he really seemed to be finding his stride, and all players deserve some benefit of the doubt as far as 2020 is concerned. Sanó has two years at most to figure things out and turn the corner as a Twin. He's under contract for $11 million this season and $9.25 million in 2022, after which Minnesota holds a $14 million team option. Alex Kirilloff seems likely to end up at first base and if he doesn't, 2020 first-rounder Aaron Sabato could be on a fast track toward the majors. The Twins are conspicuously lacking in immediate depth at first base, so it'll be interesting to see how Rocco Baldelli handles any short-term absence from Sanó early in the season. Luis Arráez has no real experience at first base (and seems an odd fit there with his size and skill set). Jake Cave hasn't played first, nor has Ryan Jeffers. My assumption is that Willians Astudillo or Brent Rooker – or whoever else latches onto the final bench spot – will be Sanó's day-to-day backup, with Kirilloff in line to replace him during any prolonged absence. For a more extensive look at the long-term outlook, check out Cody Christie's future position analysis for first base. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES Catcher Click here to view the article

With spring training officially underway and a new season rapidly approaching, it's time to kick off my annual position-by-position analysis of the Minnesota Twins roster. Today, we break down the team's very strong outlook behind the plate.Projected Starter: Mitch Garver Likely Backup: Ryan Jeffers Depth: Willians Astudillo, Tomás Telis Prospects: Ben Rortvedt THE GOOD Few teams have a starting catcher as good as Mitch Garver. No teams have a backup catcher as good as Ryan Jeffers – to the extent you'd call him a "backup" given this appears to be a straight 50/50 timeshare. The Twins are in a pretty optimal situation with two starting-caliber catchers on hand. Although questions marks surround both Garver and Jeffers to some extent, each backstop has proven his mettle in the majors after stepping in with big expectations and big pressure. In 2019, after coming up short in their offseason pursuits of free agents Yasmani Grandal and Robinson Chirinos, the Twins turned to Garver as the primary partner for veteran Jason Castro. Garver's future behind the plate was somewhat in doubt after another concussion ended his 2018 campaign, while Castro was trying to come back from knee surgery. It was a bit of a precarious situation. It worked out nicely, in part because Castro rebounded with a .767 OPS, but mainly because Garver broke through with a spectacular season that earned him Silver Slugger honors and catapulted him immediately into the upper echelon of major-league catchers. He slashed .273/.365/.630 with 31 home runs and a .404 wOBA in 391 plate appearance, producing 3.9 fWAR in just 93 games. Garver's offensive explosion was accompanied by clear improvements on the defensive end, as he graded out very well by pitch-framing metrics and earned more confidence from Twins pitchers. While the luster wore off from his breakout during in injury-marred and abbreviated 2020 campaign, Garver is a prime rebound candidate and remains a high-quality starting option. For a deeper dive into position's long-term outlook, check out Cody Christie's future position analysis at catcher. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

What did we learn while updating our annual Twins top prospect rankings after a year that offered no minor-league games, and very little new information to influence our analysis? Maybe more than you'd expect. Find the new list and some key takeaways below.Minnesota Twins 2021 Top 20 Prospects 20. Bailey Ober, RHP: Upside may not stack up to 6'9" frame, but he's almost ready to help. 19. José Miranda, 3B/2B: High-contract righty-swinging infielder needs to find power stroke. 18. Alerick Soularie, UTIL: Versatile defender with intriguing bat, drafted in 2020 second round. 17. Ben Rortvedt, C: Terrific defense behind the plate virtually assures he'll play a role in MLB. 16. Edwar Colina, RHP: Huge raw stuff, but command issues on display in rocky Twins debut. 15. Cole Sands, RHP: Dazzled in first pro stint. Now needs to back it up and ramp workload. 14. Misael Urbina, OF: Athletic CF with a leadoff man's offensive profile. Still unrefined at 18. 13. Matt Wallner, OF: Quality left-handed corner bat. The MN native is poised to move fast. 12. Brent Rooker, OF: Brings tons of power and strikeouts from the right side. Ready for bigs. 11. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Best CF in the org behind Buxton, was on the rise pre-pandemic. 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Owns 3.36 ERA in minors, but when will heralded curve lead to Ks? 9. Matt Canterino, RHP: Excelled in 2019, reportedly hit 99 MPH in recent throwing session. 8. Aaron Sabato, 1B: Last year's first-rounder does one thing, and does it very well: MASH. 7. Keoni Cavaco, SS: Seeking to shake off rough pro debut and let considerable talent shine. 6. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Lanky righty has shredded hitters in minors with balanced arsenal. 5. Jhoan Duran, RHP: An intimidating force on the mound with high-90s heat. Will he start? 4. Ryan Jeffers, C: Showed his value as a polished two-way asset in MLB breakthrough. 3. Trevor Larnach, OF: Looks the part of a near-ready, well-rounded bat for heart of order. 2. Royce Lewis, SS: Twins believe he'll stick at short. Stardom easy to envision. Born leader. 1. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Prolific bat is big-league ready. High ceiling seems imminently reachable. PAST RANKINGS Twins Daily 2020 Top ProspectsTwins Daily 2019 Top ProspectsTwins Daily 2018 Top ProspectsTwins Daily 2017 Top ProspectsTwins Daily 2016 Top ProspectsTwins Daily 2015 Top ProspectsA CHANGE AT THE TOP For obvious reasons, there wasn't a ton of movement in our rankings compared to last year. The most noteworthy development is Alex Kirilloff overtaking Royce Lewis for the No. 1 spot after ranking second behind him in each of the past two years. How can the top dog be supplanted in a season where they both practiced all summer in a private camp? It's a question that raised some spirited debate as our panelists tried to work through a gridlocked decision. As someone who favored Kirilloff at No. 1, here's the argument that won out, from my view: 1: Although we had Lewis ahead of Kirilloff last year, it was very close. A virtual tie. Royce's tough 2019 at the plate had raised flags about his hitchy swing mechanics and lack of discipline, while Kirilloff acclimated impressively to Double-A at 21, closing the gap. The bottom line is that they're both extremely good prospects. 2: That said, even without playing official games, Kirilloff had the louder 2020. Praise for his daily work in St. Paul traveled routinely across the river. The decision to call him up for an elimination game proved there was substance behind the buzz. And Kirilloff's ability to handle such a situation unphased, looking like a natural under extreme pressure, speaks volumes. 3: Lewis didn't do anything to lower his own stock. Reports on him from the alternate were plenty positive. But it's fair to say that a player in his position – unfinished product with real question marks to resolve before breaking through – is more hurt by the disrupted year of development than Kirilloff. And now we've learned the disruption will continue for Lewis after suffering an ACL tear, which didn't factor into our rankings since we all learned of it two days ago. He'll miss all of 2021. Lewis has the higher ceiling, with the tools to become a dynamic two-way star at a premium position, but he still has a considerable path ahead of him, made steeper by his new setback. Kirilloff's skill set is narrower, but his offensive talents are immense and – by all appearances – fully developed. That gave him a slight edge this year. MOVEMENT ON THE LIST As mentioned earlier, there weren't a whole lot of jumps or drops. Most players are within a spot or two of where we had them last year. Risers included Matt Canterino, who went from No. 15 to No. 9 thanks in part to reports of throwing 99. Ryan Jeffers, who excelled in a 26-game major-league debut, rose from No. 7 to No. 4. The biggest individual change this year was a slide. Wander Javier went from 13th in 2019 to outside the Top 20. It's not so much that he did anything to lose ground in 2020, but he's now 22 with 80 games played and a .600 OPS above rookie ball. He's been passed up twice in the Rule 5 draft. Javier has gone from presumed shortstop of the future to longshot. TOP 20 POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN C: 2IF: 4OF: 7RHP: 7LHP: 0The Twins are a bit thin on high-level infield talent, especially with Lewis now sidelined, but the clearest deficiency is left-handed pitching. In past years, Lewis Thorpe was a steady presence in that category, but he graduated out of prospect status in 2020 (and frankly might not have made the Top 20 anyway). Minnesota has seen past promising southpaws like Stephen Gonsalves and Tyler Jay fizzle out, and Thorpe's in danger of joining them. This year is make-or-break, as far as his Twins future is concerned. The scarcity of left-handers runs pretty deep in the Twins' system. Of the five pitchers we named in the Honorable Mentions, all are righties. As to how big of a problem this is, your mileage may vary. It bears noting that the Twins have only one left-hander in their rotation, and he's 38, although the presence of Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer does provide some short-term balance. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Definitely a weird outlier. Here's an excerpt from their report on him: "His performance on the field in 2018 was quite good, but the underlying swing had us skeptical about just how loud the hit and power tools would be given the corner profile ... There’s the potential for a plus-or-better hit tool with plus power, but he can get pull-power-happy and out of sync, leading to suboptimal contact. And he doesn’t consistently lift the ball either, struggling to hit for corner bat game power above Low-A." It's well known that he could stand to lift he ball more, but I can't remember seeing anyone else criticize his swing fundamentally. They're either gonna end up looking really smart or really dumb.

How much can a prospect raise his stock in a year where there is no minor-league season and he doesn't make a regular-season appearance in the majors? In Alex Kirilloff's case ... a fair amount.Position: OF Age: 23 (DOB: 11/9/1997) 2019 Stats (AA): 411 PA, .283/.343/.413, 9, 43 RBI ETA: 2021 2020 Ranking: 2 2019 Ranking: 2 National Top 100 Rankings BA: 18 | MLB: 26 | ATH: 7 | BP: 71 | ESPN: 22 | FG: 17 What's To Like When tantalizing upside and MLB-readiness collide, you get an elite prospect who generates palpable excitement. That's Kirilloff. There's no more dreaming or distant projection required here. The 23-year-old is ready; the Twins left no doubt with the stunning decision to call him up and start him in right field for an elimination game in the playoffs last September. Kirilloff faced an historically tall task in his MLB debut, but looked more than ready for it, collecting one of Minnesota's three hits in Game 2 to provide a glimmer of offensive positivity in their sweep-clinching loss. At age 22, he became the first player in history to record his first major-league hit in the postseason – a 106 MPH rocket yanked into right field. "He’s among the very best hitting prospects in baseball, thanks to a beautiful left-handed swing, an advanced approach to the strike zone, and all-fields power," writes The Athletic's Keith Law, who recently ranked the outfielder as the seventh-best prospect in all of baseball. Other sources share similar praise regarding Kirilloff's acumen. Baseball America also pegs him as the top Twins prospect: "While some players might have better pure bat speed, Kirilloff combines a balanced lefthanded swing, strong hands, quick wrists and the ability to make adjustments mechanically and mentally at an elite level." In other words, Kirilloff is very much ready to hit the ground running. The Twins, after allowing Eddie Rosario to walk during the offseason, appear (almost?) ready to let him off the leash. What's Left to Work On There's not much left for Kirilloff to prove in the minors. Even though he has played fewer than 100 games above Single-A, and his .756 OPS at Double-A in 2019 was nothing to write home about, there is little doubt among Twins officials that Kirilloff is ready. If he doesn't open in the majors, it won't be because he needs more seasoning. (More on that momentarily.) There are of course no guarantees for the 23-year-old. While he has a relatively high floor due to his natural talent and adaptability, his defensive limitations equate to a lofty bar for offensive production if he's going to be an above-average regular, much less an All-Star. This applies even more if he winds up as a first baseman or mediocre defensive corner outfielder – both possible given his middling footspeed. Two things to keep an eye on in Kirilloff's quest to become a truly feared MLB hitter: 1: Plate discipline. Kirilloff hasn't been strikeout-prone in the minors (16% K-rate) but he has also shown very little patience (6% walk rate). That's not exactly a problem – why take pitches when you're crushing everything? – but he'll need to develop a more discerning eye to thrive in the majors. Pitchers there are too good to be overcome by brute force. 2: Lifting the ball. Baseball America reports that Kirilloff's exit velocities were above average at Double-A, but his launch angles were below average. This, along with a nagging wrist issue, contributed to an underwhelming .413 slugging percentage in 2019. A lack of elevation is also reflected by Kirilloff hitting 20 home runs compared to 44 doubles during his breakout campaign at Single-A the prior year. A healthy Kirilloff will almost certainly be a high-contact, line-drive machine in the majors. If he can prove valuable defensively, infuse some patience into his plate approach, and start lifting the ball to unlock his power potential, he will be a star. What's Next Kirilloff is in line to take over the left field job in Minnesota. When that will happen remains to be seen. Service time is the elephant in the room; under the current CBA, the Twins stand to gain an additional year of MLB service from Kirilloff by having him spend the first few weeks of the season in Triple-A. Given the young outfielder's lack of experience in the high minors, and Luis Arráez's presence as a readily available plug in left field, it wouldn't be overly conservative for the Twins to start Kirilloff at St. Paul, all other things aside. But if they do that, it'll be a temporary arrangement. He's ready. No other player on our Top 20 list (save Ryan Jeffers) is poised to assume a regular major-league role more imminently, and few others can match Kirilloff's offensive ceiling. When tantalizing upside and MLB-readiness collide, you get an elite prospect who generates palpable excitement. That's Kirilloff. Twins 2021 Top 20 Prospects Honorable Mentions 20. Bailey Ober, RHP 19. José Miranda, 3B/2B 18. Alerick Soularie, UTIL 17. Ben Rortvedt, C 16. Edwar Colina, RHP 15. Cole Sands, RHP 14. Misael Urbina, OF 13. Matt Wallner, OF 12. Brent Rooker, OF/1B 11. Gilberto Celestino, OF 10. Blayne Enlow, RHP 9. Matt Canterino, RHP 8. Aaron Sabato, 1B 7. Keoni Cavaco, SS 6. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 5. Jhoan Duran, RHP 4. Ryan Jeffers, C 3. Trevor Larnach, OF 2. Royce Lewis, SS 1. Alex Kirilloff, OF Check back tomorrow for a full recap and breakdown of the Twins system heading into the 2021 season! Click here to view the article