Nick Nelson

Twins baseball is back, and that means so too is our season-long Sunday night tradition of reviewing the week that was. Here's a rundown of the highlights and lowlights from opening weekend in Milwaukee, where the Twins took two of three from the Brewers, as well as a look ahead to what's coming in the season's first full week. Weekly Snapshot: Thurs, 4/1 through Sun, 4/4 *** Record Last Week: 2-1 (Overall: 2-1) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +7) Standing: T-1st Place in AL Central Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 1 | MIL 6, MIN 5: Twins Blow 3-Run Lead in 9th InningGame 2 | MIN 2, MIL 0: Take a Bow, José BerríosGame 3 | MIN 8, MIL 2: Arraez Reaches 5 Times, Twins Take Series NEWS & NOTES An opening series victory in Milwaukee brought plenty of glowing positives, but also a familiar feeling of dread as Minnesota's two most critical players – Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton – still can't seem to stay on the field. Donaldson made it through only one plate appearance before his balky legs acted up once again. A tight hamstring disrupted his stride while he rounded first base on a double in Thursday's opener, and Donaldson was removed before taking the field at third base. The diagnosis is relatively encouraging, in that it wasn't calf-related and the Twins emphasized the "mild" nature of the injury ... but still. This is a gutting development right off the bat. While they weren't quite as overwhelmingly impressive, Kenta Maeda and Michael Pineda also deserve credit for high-caliber first turns in the rotation. The fielders behind them weren't always helpful (more on that in a moment), and Maeda especially was not at his sharpest, but both starters were effective, combining to allow just one earned run in 9 ⅓ innings with 10 strikeouts. The path to a 100-win season for the Twins this year lies in getting consistently strong starting pitching, day in day out, and letting the rest take care of itself. So far, so good on that front. LOWLIGHTS The Twins revamped their roster during the offseason with a clear objective in mind: upgrade to a world-class defense that can uplift the pitching staff and cut down on costly miscues. So far, not so good on that front. The series in Milwaukee featured a medley of gaffes and blunders. Andrelton Simmons dropped a force-out thrown right into his glove. Jorge Polanco muffed a routine grounder. Alex Colomé committed a mental and physical error with a wayward throw to second on Thursday. Later that inning, Kepler failed to secure a deep drive to right despite getting leather on it. Certainly not the hallmarks of a stalwart defensive club, although it's wise not to overreact at this stage, and there were some nifty plays mixed in as well. The disappointing glovework, and Colomé's ninth-inning meltdown in the opener, were really the only significant rough spots in this series, since the Twins outplayed Milwaukee quite thoroughly otherwise. TRENDING STORYLINE We've gotten past the known commodities in the Twins rotation. Maeda, Berríos and Pineda all looked good, but that's nothing new. They powered this starting staff to stellar results last year. Now, we'll get a look at the new guys. Matt Shoemaker is set to make his Twins debut on Monday, followed by J.A. Happ on Tuesday. Shoemaker will be looking to shake off a rough spring, where he posted a 6.57 ERA and allowed four homers in 12 ⅓ innings, while Happ will be looking to go as deep as he can following a COVID-shortened ramp-up. Expect to see some Randy Dobnak in the days ahead, and possibly some roster moves (position player out, pitcher in?) as the Twins aim to keep fresh arms stocked while escaping from NL rules. LOOKING AHEAD With interleague play in the rearview (for now), the Twins will welcome Cruz back to their starting lineup on Monday in Detroit, where they kick off a three-game series against the worst team in the division. Of note: in an early-season scheduling quirk, all three games at Detroit are noon starts. On Thursday, Target Field will welcome back fans for the first time in 18 months. It promises to be a very special occasion. With six games on tap against two of the worst teams in the league, this should hopefully be a chance for the Twins to flex their muscles a bit. MONDAY, 4/5: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Matt Shoemaker v. RHP Jose Urena TUESDAY, 4/6: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP J.A. Happ v. RHP Casey Mize WEDNESDAY, 4/7: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. LHP Matthew Boyd THURSDAY, 4/8: MARINERS @ TWINS – LHP Marco Gonzales v. RHP Jose Berrios SATURDAY, 4/10: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Yusei Kikuchi v. RHP Michael Pineda SUNDAY, 4/11: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Flexen v. RHP Matt Shoemaker MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Today, a new season of Minnesota Twins baseball gets underway. While 2021 won't represent a full return to normalcy in baseball, it figures to be a big step in that direction. Can the Twins take a big step of their own and get over the hump in October? First, they'll need to fend off a challenge in the Central from a familiar and formidable foe.The 2020 MLB season will be mostly looked back upon as an anomaly – an abbreviated 60-game sprint, played out before empty ballparks, leading up to a hugely expanded playoff field. It was an odd, warped year of baseball that nonetheless produced a worthy champion. For the Twins and their fans, 2020 season was fun, yet unfulfilling. The team played .600 ball and won the division (or more accurately, Chicago lost the division), then went out with a whimper in the postseason. With 18 consecutive playoff losses in tow, Minnesota's directive in 2021 is crystal-clear. But that's putting the cart before the horse. They need to get to the dance before they can step onto the floor, and unlike last year, reaching the postseason will be no mere formality for quality teams. Having added a frontline starter and elite reliever to their emerging squad, the White Sox are favored by bettors to win the Central, and are feeling plenty confident for their part. That's nice and all, but the Twins are favored by most projection systems, including the latest forecast from Five Thirty Eight, a stats & analytics super-site. Their algorithm gives Minnesota a substantial advantage in the AL Central with a 64% chance to make the playoffs and 47% chance to win the division. Download attachment: 538forecast.JPG The White Sox have plenty of hype, and rightfully so. They're a talented young team coming off a breakout year, bolstered by big-name offseason additions. But until further notice, this division belongs to the two-time defending champs, and Chicago will need to get past the Twins. Projections and bettings odds are fun and all, but it's time to let it play out on the field. Here's the roster Minnesota is bringing to battle out of the gates: Download attachment: openingdayroster.png It's a deep and balanced group, which is also (knocking on wood) remarkably healthy at the moment. In our on Wednesday night, Seth and I went through the Twins 2021 roster position-by-position, and were joined by MLB.com's Do-Hyoung Park. You can watch that below, or keep scrolling for the skinny on each position, with links to the full breakdowns for each. CATCHER Starter: Mitch Garver Backup: Ryan Jeffers Depth: Willians Astudillo, Tomás Telis Prospects: Ben Rortvedt The Twins are perfectly equipped for a new era of workload management behind the plate, with two starting-caliber options who figure to split the time almost evenly. Garver is one year removed from playing at a borderline-MVP level and Jeffers looked tremendous as a rookie. Astudillo is a better third catcher than most other teams can boast, and Rortvedt gives them a legitimate prospect in the minors who's nearing readiness. This position is stacked. FIRST BASE Starter: Miguel Sanó Backup: Willians Astudillo Depth: Brent Rooker, Mitch Garver Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Aaron Sabato This is definitely a prove-it year for Sanó, who followed up his breakout 2019 – and contract extension – with a disappointing 2020 campaign that saw him bat .204 while leading the league in strikeouts. He looked pretty solid defensively in his transition to first base, but the slugger's bat will determine his future. Sanó certainly has the makings of a prototypical run-producing first baseman. If he can't shake off the inconsistency and contact woes, the Twins have no shortage of options behind him; Rooker is just waiting his turn. SECOND BASE Starter: Jorge Polanco Backup: Luis Arraez Depth: Nick Gordon, Travis Blankenhorn Prospects: Jose Miranda, Yunior Severino Sanó is still acclimating to the right side of the diamond, and now the guy playing alongside him at second base will be doing the same. Polanco is shifting over from shortstop, to a position where he seems a more natural fit. His success as a second baseman will be defined in part by his ability to adapt defensively and let his fielding skills shine through, but even more so by his ability to rebound at the plate after a lackluster campaign and second consecutive offseason ankle surgery. THIRD BASE Starter: Josh Donaldson Backup: Luis Arraez Depth: Willians Astudillo, Travis Blankenhorn Prospects: Keoni Cavaco, Jose Miranda The first year of Donaldson's historic free agent contract with the Twins was more or less a flop, as his problematic calf flared up multiple times and kept him out of the lineup for half the shortened season, as well as the playoffs. The good news is that he looked mostly like his usual self when on the field. If he can shake off the injury relapse and play a full season at age 35, he can completely change the complexion of this team – offensively and defensively – but we should probably expect to see a significant amount of Arraez and Astudillo at third. SHORTSTOP Starter: Andrelton Simmons Backup: Jorge Polanco Depth: Luis Arráez, Nick Gordon Prospects: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier In one of their most intriguing offseason moves ever, the Twins supplanted Polanco from shortstop (where he started in the 2019 All-Star Game) by signing an all-time great defender in Simmons. It's an open question whether the 31-year-old can continue to play at that same historically outstanding level in the field, coming off a season where he hurt his ankle and his defensive metrics tanked, but on a one-year deal there's not much risk. The upside, if he's anywhere near his previous defensive norm, could be transformative. The downside basically involves going back to the previous Polanco-Arraez alignment in the middle infield, which is hardly a nightmare. LEFT FIELD Starter: Jake Cave Backup: Kyle Garlick Depth: Luis Arráez, Brent Rooker Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach Left field will belong to Kirilloff at some point, but up until then, a platoon of Cave and Garlick will be keeping the spot warm, with Arraez likely rotating through a fair amount. The team's top prospect brings tantalizing excitement to this position, but Cave and Garlick should be a perfectly serviceable interim solution. With Rooker, Larnach, Keon Broxton, and others all serving as depth, the Twins are in no danger of being needy here, even with longtime staple Eddie Rosario now gone. CENTER FIELD Starter: Byron Buxton Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Max Kepler, Keon Broxton Prospects: Gilberto Celestino, Misael Urbina Can Buxton stay healthy enough to play a full season, or even anything close? As usual, that's the big question in center field – one with pivotal implications for the team at large. If he can stay on the field he's a decisive difference-maker, but unfortunately the Twins must plan around the expectation of his absence at this point. They're fairly well equipped to sustain his loss, with Kepler able to shift over and plenty of depth in the corners, so Buxton's presence almost feels like a bonus this year – one with game-changing potential. RIGHT FIELD Starter: Max Kepler Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach Kepler is one of the best defensive right fielders in the game, but for much of his career, his bat hasn't quite measured up. Is he the average hitter we saw through 2018, or the true offensive asset we saw in a breakthrough, 36-homer 2019 season? His step backward in 2020 points to the former, but now Kepler has a chance to get back on track and re-establish himself as a top-tier right fielder. The pressure is mounting a bit, with top prospects starting to press. DESIGNATED HITTER Starter: Nelson Cruz Backup: Miguel Sanó Depth: Luis Arráez, Mitch Garver Prospects: Aaron Sabato, Brent Rooker Cruz's ongoing battle against Father Time is one of the big storylines heading into the 2021 season. Very few hitters in major-league history – even in the class of all-time greats – have remained productive at the same age as Nelly, who turns 41 in three months. But the good news is that he can drop off significantly and still be an asset at DH, and the better news is that even if things go totally awry, the Twins have numerous quality bats they can plug in at this position. It's really hard to envision a scenario where DH isn't a strength for this team. STARTING PITCHER Rotation: Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker Depth: Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Bailey Ober Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands It's difficult to remember a time when the Twins had this much starting pitching depth. Not only are they strong at the top, with the reigning Cy Young runner-up Maeda and the steadily great Berríos leading the charge, but through the middle and beyond the back end. Pineda and Happ are better than most third/fourth starters. Dobnak, with his freshly minted contract extension, is on the outside to open the season. Top prospects Duran, Balazovic, and Canterino could all make an impact imminently. Thorpe has looked tremendous this spring. Just a ton to like here. RELIEF PITCHER Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Cody Stashak, Randy Dobnak Depth: Shaun Anderson, Ian Hamilton, Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Josh Winder This unit certainly represents the biggest question mark on the roster heading into the season. Almost every pitcher in the mix is either looking to rebound from a down year, modestly experienced, rejected by other teams, or all of the above. And yet ... how can we not faith in the way this team operates its bullpen plan? They've proven they know what they're doing, and so I trust them, and you don't have to squint too hard to see any pitcher in their collection being a real asset. With that said, if things unravel in the relief corps this year, the Twins will definitely be open to criticism after letting several key contributors from an outstanding 2020 bullpen walk. ~~~ The Twins are fielding a hell of a team this year. Health will of course be the primary determinant of their fate, and it's not an area they've fared well recently, but as they take the field in Milwaukee, they'll be healthy and at full strength. What more can you ask for? Happy Opening Day, and cheers to the return of baseball. This team is absolutely capable of winning a World Series. Can they fulfill their potential in what may be Nelly's last ride? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

With Opening Day upon us, we held an Opening Day Eve live-stream on Wednesday. Check out the discussion below!On Wednesday night, Seth and I went live with our 2021 season preview, breaking down the division battle ahead and the roster that Minnesota will roll out on Opening Day. We were joined during the first part of the show by MLB.com beat writer Do-Hyoung Park, who's in Milwaukee where the Twins open their season on Thursday. Watch below: Baseball's back, folks. Let us celebrate. You can catch future streams live on YouTube, and also via our Twitter and Facebook pages. Subscribe and follow them all so you never miss out! Click here to view the article

They now have (optional) control over 3 years of his free agency, so this isn't quite accurate. I also think guaranteeing him salaries for the next 5 years makes him a much firmer part of their plans.

We've learned that this Minnesota Twins front office highly values both flexibility and stability in its team-building strategy. With Randy Dobnak's newly-minted contract extension, the Twins maintain flexibility in their rotation plans while also securing some much-needed, low-risk stability for the long term.At first blush, Dobnak's new contract seems absurdly team-friendly. The Twins are locking up a proven young pitcher, with a 3.12 ERA through 75 MLB innings, to a five-year deal guaranteeing him less money than Michael Pineda or J.A. Happ will earn this year alone. That makes sense. Dobnak lacks the big-league bona fides of Kluber and Carrasco when they signed, or the top-prospect luster of Archer when he did. The implications of Dobnak's background in this decision are apparent from the outside – given where he was at a few short years ago, it's gotta be hard to pass up $9 million in guaranteed money, especially when the "worst case scenario" means you pitch really well and earn $30+ million while staying in the same place for the next eight years. The Twins, for their part, will happily take the stability in exchange for a modest financial commitment. Prior to extending Dobnak, Minnesota had no starters (sans prospects and fringe rotation options like Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer) under control beyond 2023. The graphic below show just how much his extension changes that picture. Download attachment: twinsspcontrol.png The Twins will have plenty of flexibility in building their rotation going forward. Dobnak is now firmly entrenched as a sturdy building block to serve as their bedrock. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I only included Thorpe as the last reliever here because of the uncertainty around Thorpe's fourth option (which is of course now cleared up). With that sorted, I expect Dobnak to be the long man in the pen.

There's no two ways about it: on paper, Minnesota's bullpen picture is high on risk and low on assurance. Strategizing around a series of rebound performances and coaching-related glow ups, the message being sent to fans by the front office is essentially: trust us, we got this. Frankly, they've earned some faith.Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, Hansel Robles, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Cody Stashak, Lewis Thorpe Depth: Shaun Anderson, Ian Hamilton, Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, Dakota Chalmers, Josh Winder THE GOOD The top of Minnesota's bullpen is well stocked with proven high-caliber arms. Taylor Rogers (3rd), Tyler Duffey (13th) and newcomer Hansel Robles (19th) all rank among the top 20 major-league relief pitchers in fWAR since 2019. Alex Colomé isn't rated quite as highly by that metric (42nd), but is a more conventionally appealing back-end arm: 15th in ERA, fourth in saves (with a 91% conversion rate), and seventh in Win Probability Added. Backfilling May's overpowering presence, along with the functional reliability of Clippard and Wisler (who ranked first and second among MN relievers in innings pitched), will be a tall task. While the Twins have a large quantity of talented arms for the task, there are legit question marks surrounding most of them. Rogers is coming off a tough year, in which hitters seemingly caught on to his previously baffling repertoire. Robles is trying to rebound from an unmitigated disaster that got him non-tendered by the Angels. Colomé was ditched by the White Sox and generated little demand in free agency, despite the gaudy numbers. It's hard to look at any of these pitchers with the same confidence as Rogers, May and Romo a year ago. THE BOTTOM LINE Great bullpens are requisite for transcendent teams, especially in the modern game. Year after year, when you look at MLB's leading teams in bullpen fWAR, you find clubs that made the playoffs and often made deep runs. (Last year, the Dodgers and Rays ranked first and second, respectively.) The Twins ranked third, for a second consecutive year, and they've achieved all this success by following their own model. They identify impact relievers (often below-the-radar types), develop customized plans, and execute. They've done it time and time again, and for that reason they've earned a good amount of faith. But leaps of faith are definitely required to see this bullpen maintaining the elite level of performance that's now become the norm. They lost a lot of quality during the offseason, and are gambling heavily on their secret sauce in this 2021 bullpen recipe. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopLeft FieldCenter FieldRight FieldDesignated HitterStarting Pitcher Click here to view the article

You're probably right. I respect Morris' career but I think he's generally pretty overrated, and I'm so drained on hearing him always invoked as a "grass-is-greener" playoff rotation lament. He had great moments in the postseason, including maybe the greatest moment, but he was hardly infallible. The nature of the game was so different then compared to now, it feels completely pointless to bring his name up. Managers don't use starters in that same way, and are finding plenty of success anyway. Clayton Kershaw & Walker Buehler collectively pitched past the 6th inning once in 10 playoff starts last year. Kevin Cash routinely pulled his starters after a couple turns through the lineup. In the context of baseball as it is now, Maeda has been extremely effective in the playoffs. And that's what matters.

In which of the last few seasons would you say the Twins had a better and deeper rotation than this one? You might say last year, with the hindsight of knowing Maeda would break out, but then you'd also have the hindsight of knowing Odo would be completely unavailable. Also ,at no point in my recollection have they had this many high-caliber pitching prospects on the doorstep, which is a key part of that assertion.

You can lay out all the caveats but the fact remains: Morris was pretty mediocre in the playoffs outside of that one greatest postseason start ever (4.26 ERA in 12 starts). It's true that Maeda's been used differently, but he has risen to the occasion in his role very consistently. Morris' greatest asset as a postseason starter was durability and piling up complete games. He was used in a way that no modern manager (certainly not Baldelli) would ever use a starting pitcher today. So yeah, it is an oranges-to-orangutans comparison but I'd rather have the current version of Maeda than Morris at any point in his career. Morris was never this good.

Maeda has pitched 25 times in the playoffs and has a 2.87 ERA. Jack Morris had a 3.80 career ERA in the playoffs. Just saying.

If the Twins have ever fielded a better and deeper rotation than the one they're set to line up this year, I can't remember it. From top to bottom (and beyond) this unit looks stacked.Projected Rotation: Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker Depth: Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Bailey Ober Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands THE GOOD Let's start at the top. Kenta Maeda: The long-awaited ace and reigning Cy Young runner-up. Maeda's first year in a Minnesota uniform yielded the best performance we've seen from a Twins starting pitcher since Johan Santana left town. One of the great sadnesses of the shortened 2020 season was that we didn't get to see him do more of it. From his first turn to his last, Maeda was superb. He never gave up more than three runs in a game, or more hits than innings pitched in a start. His whiff rate was third-highest in the game behind Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito. Maeda shut down Houston with five shutout innings in the playoffs. A month prior, he came within three outs of no-hitting Milwaukee at Target Field. With an offspeed-heavy mix and impeccable command, he left opposing batters helpless. J.A. Happ is not a super flashy addition at age 38, but he's been basically as good as Berríos over the past handful of seasons, and he's a great asset as your fourth starter. Matt Shoemaker rounds out the rotation as a $2 million flier who probably has a 50/50 shot at lasting until the All-Star break. But as with any signing by this front office, there's upside here that's easy to see. The offseason additions might not have been too exciting, but what does excite about Minnesota's rotation picture this year is the internal depth. Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe both offer plenty of intrigue, especially with their buzz-stirring spring camps. Devin Smeltzer is a better eighth option than most other teams have. And that's before you turn to the farm. The Twins' top three pitching prospects – Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino – are verging on big-league ready. It's hard to say for sure since the 2020 minor-league season was wiped out, but had it been played, it's very possible any of those three would now be banging on the door – if not already debuted. Each is capable of a serious impact in short order, and the Twins are quietly counting on that to some degree. THE BAD One might argue the Twins have been extraordinarily lucky with the health of their starting pitchers over the past couple years. (Jake Odorizzi and Homer Bailey would disagree, but they're gone.) Berríos has continued to take the mound every fifth day, as usual. Maeda did the same in 2020, while transitioning from starter-reliever hybrid to relative workhorse. He experienced no issues, even after accruing a career-high 115 pitches in his no-hit bid. Pineda, so often injured before coming to Minnesota, has been perfectly healthy outside of the suspension. (Phantom DL stints not withstanding.) I'm not over here to trying to jinx anything. But it has to be acknowledged that this probably won't last forever. The rigors of being a starting pitcher in the major leagues are immense, and right now these guys are grappling with the transition back to a full-season workload, in the wake of 2020's disruption. If one of those top three starters goes down? Suddenly the Twins rotation doesn't look quite so sturdy anymore. Happ might be a nice luxury in the back half, but he's not necessarily someone you want to be depending on toward the front. Shoemaker, Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer all have their own varying levels of promise and mystique, but also serious hurdles to overcome. The top prospects may well all need more seasoning, These aren't unique problems – all pitchers across the league will be facing the same readjustment challenges this year, and no team has infinite starting depth – but the Twins will need a bit of luck on their side to fulfill their potential in the rotation. They're relying heavily on some internal developments playing out well, because it's questionable whether the free agent talent incoming (Happ, Shoemaker) is better than the talent outgoing (Odorizzi, Rich Hill). Questionable might be putting it kindly. THE BOTTOM LINE This is a deep, well-rounded group with a high ceiling and a number of electrifying wild cards in play. Odorizzi is a significant loss, which should not be discounted, but the fact is, the Twins managed to post the second-best rotation ERA, FIP, and fWAR in the American League last year without him. An important thing to keep in mind is that, by retaining all prospect capital in the offseason, the Twins have positioned themselves nicely for a trade as the deadline approaches. That'll probably be a big storyline this summer, but I'm more eager to see what the system can provide internally after four years of remarkable progression under the new front office. "After four years of assembling the infrastructure and creating a culture of fearless development," wrote Dan Hayes at The Athletic recently, "the Twins front office feels as if its pitching pipeline is finally ready to churn out impressive arms at a more consistent rate." Their exhaustive work will be put to the test in what's certain to be a daunting and discombobulating year for MLB starting pitchers, with workloads thrown askew. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopLeft FieldCenter FieldRight FieldDesignated Hitter Click here to view the article

No team is better set up at DH than the Minnesota Twins, who are fortunate enough to employ an all-time great at the position. He's 40 years old, and thus not without his question marks, but Nelson Cruz is back and we all should all be happy about that.Projected Starter: Nelson Cruz Likely Backup: Miguel Sanó Depth: Luis Arráez, Mitch Garver Prospects: Aaron Sabato, Brent Rooker THE GOOD There is no player in baseball better suited for the term "designated hitter" than Nelson Cruz. Hitting is all he does – the Twins wouldn't dream of playing him for an inning in the field at this point – but he does it unbelievably well. By almost any holistic offensive metric, Cruz has been the second-best hitter in MLB over the past two seasons, trailing only Mike Trout. The peak of Cruz's career has coincided with its twilight, and up to this point he hasn't shown much sign of showing down. His production in 2020 was basically right on par with the prior season, when he slugged 41 homers with 108 RBIs. Cruz batted third or fourth in every game he started, and lived up to the billing with monster production that was at times simply outrageous. From August 17th through September 8th, for example, he slashed .343/.450/.761 with nine home runs in 20 games. Even from the most optimistic view, it's probably fair to build some regression into expectations for Cruz. The man turns 41 in July, after all, and outstanding production – much less absolute top-tier production – is rarified air at such an age, to say the least. The nice thing is that Cruz has been SO GOOD that he can afford to experience a significant drop-off, and still be a high-impact designated hitter. If you took 100 points off his .992 OPS in 2020, it still would've been the best for a DH in the AL by 50 points. And as far as his anticipated age-related drop-off is concerned ... Cruz made a bit of a statement on that front in his first spring training game earlier his month: THE BAD I said earlier of Cruz: "up to this point he hasn't shown much sign of showing down." That's not to say he's shown NO sign of slowing down. In the second half of September last year, his bat tanked like we've never really seen as a Twin; albeit in a very small sample. His final 11 games, which followed the aforementioned ludicrous 20-game stretch, saw Cruz hit just .154/.267/.256 with one home run and one double, missing a week with knee soreness in the middle. For the season, Cruz's Statcast measures were great, but they weren't quite on par with years prior. Measures which were previously in the top 1-2% of all hitters were now more in the top 10-15%. Download attachment: cruzstatcast2020.png No one's gonna scoff at an Average Exit Velocity, HardHit% or xwOBA in the upper-80th percentiles, but in the previous three years, Cruz was literally 98th-99th percentile in each of those categories, without fail. As you look at his mid-to-long range xwOBA trends, the downward progression is quite noticeable: Download attachment: cruz_woba_trend.png Under normal circumstances, the above trends wouldn't be too noteworthy, especially for a player with Cruz's track record. But again: we're talking about a guy who turns 41 in three months. While it's difficult to envision him dropping off to the point where he's not an asset at DH (if healthy), it would be no real surprise if he morphs into more of a low-average, high-strikeout, all-or-nothing type this year, rather than the totally dominant force we're accustomed to. THE BOTTOM LINE Time is undefeated. Then again, from what we've seen during his tenure in Minnesota, the same can basically be said for Nelson Cruz. I find it hard to bet against the man even if all historical data suggests it's a pretty good bet. The Twins are well protected in the event of injuries or seismic drop-off, since he's on a one-year deal and they have a wealth of bats – majors and minors – capable of rotating through the DH spot to keep it juiced. Suffice to say this position is the last anyone needs to worry about. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopLeft FieldCenter FieldRight Field Click here to view the article

Max Kepler is a fantastic defensive right fielder who, by and large, has hit more like a center fielder. As long as Byron Buxton roams center, Kepler's value to the Twins is largely predicated on his ability to produce at the plate. The 28-year-old unlocked something in 2019 – can he find it again?Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Jake Cave Depth: Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick Prospects: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner THE GOOD Max Kepler is a pristine athlete who does basically everything well, from a skills standpoint. He's very fast, routinely ranking around the league's 75th percentile in sprint speed. Combine that with his strong outfield instincts and technique, and you've got one of the game's top-rated defenders in right. Meanwhile, if Kepler gets hurt, or is needed in center field, the Twins are well equipped to fill his RF vacancy. Alex Kirilloff could slide over to his more natural outfield position, opening up left for one of many other candidates. Or Trevor Larnach, who sure seems ready to make an impact, could step in. The Twins' youth movement sets them up well for a Kepler-related pivot, and if the kids aren't quite ready, they've got plenty of appeling interim options on hand between Jake Cave, Brent Rooker, Kyle Garlick, Keon Broxton, and the like. THE BAD Two years ago, Kepler seemingly turned a long-awaited corner offensively. He hadn't previously been a bad hitter, per se, but to be a standout in right field, greatness is the standard. It's one he has failed to reach in every season except that 2019 breakout as leadoff man for the Bomba Squad. The 2020 campaign, which started so promisingly with back-to-back home runs against White Sox ace Lucas Giolito in the opener, represented a troubling backstep for Kep. After hitting those two solo shots on Opening Day, Kepler slugged just .404, with seven homers and nine doubles in 47 contests. For the season, his batting average sagged to .228, and he was futile against southpaws, slashing .128/.208/.170 in 53 PA. Despite his good plate approach and high contact rates, Kepler has generally struggled to find open grass. His BABIP over the past three years is the worst in baseball, and that owes to a variety of factors: predictable hitting profile, defensive shifts, and plain old bad luck among them. Matthew Trueblood wrote here recently about Kepler's primary obstacle, and how he can overcome it. "It’s pretty clear that Kepler needs to make adjustments at the plate," Matthew argues. "He’s evolved impressively over the course of his big-league career, but his inability to generate hard contact against certain pitches or to certain parts of the park (plus the inherent disadvantage of being a lefty pull hitter, in the modern game) is putting a cap on his potential production." Kepler made real inroads against these weaknesses in 2019, but the reemergence of familiar flaws leaves his outlook in doubt. If he can't pump up the offensive production this year, he'll feel pressure from big bats rising up underneath. THE BOTTOM LINE Kepler's future with the Twins is in flux. They've got high-caliber corner bats knocking on the door to the majors (with Kirilloff probably already stepping through). Kepler remains locked under contract for three more years, but if he keeps hitting like a center fielder, you have to wonder if the Twins will trade him to another team that might find him more valuable there – or part with Byron Buxton and move Kepler to center themselves. For now, right field is his. So they'll hope he can recapture the outstanding offense of 2019, when he was a legitimate force. At 28, we'll see if he can find it again. READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES CatcherFirst BaseSecond BaseThird BaseShortstopLeft FieldCenter Field Click here to view the article

We'll be sure to address it tonight on the show! I'm probably more bullish on La Tortuga than others.

In two weeks, the Twins will host the Pirates in their final spring training game. Then, they'll pack up and head to Milwaukee, where the regular season opens against the Brewers two days later. Tuesday night on Spring Training Live, we set up the final 14 days in camp.After spending nearly a month down in Fort Myers, our intrepid beat man John Bonnes is returning to Minnesota on Wednesday. Before traveling back, he joined us for a 90-minute live-stream. John and I broke down several storylines and updates, including Kenta Maeda's Opening Day assignment, minor-league cuts, surprising performers, and roster battles. We were joined by some special guests along the way. You can watch the episode on (or the video below), and can always catch future live-streams there or on our Twitter and Facebook pages. You can also always listen to new episodes via audio by subscribing to our podcast. Click here to view the article