Nick Nelson

Who is Minnesota's heir apparent at first base? The answer is unclear at this moment, but should come into focus by summer's end. As Joe Mauer approaches the finish line of an historic contract and faces an uncertain future, the question is indeed a pertinent one. Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz, USA Today Who is Minnesota's heir apparent at first base? The answer is unclear at this moment, but should come into focus by summer's end. As Joe Mauer approaches the finish line of an historic contract and faces an uncertain future, the question is indeed a pertinent one. Projected Starter: Joe Mauer Likely Backup: Logan Morrison Depth: Kennys Vargas, Mitch Garver, Brock Stassi Prospects: Lewin Diaz, Brent Rooker, Zander Wiel THE GOOD Mauer! It feels awesome to be able to once again apply that descriptor. After toiling in mediocrity for three seasons following his concussion-driven shift to first base, the six-time All-Star shook off a rough April and reverted to vintage form. From May 1st through the end of the 2017 season, Mauer hit .319/.402/.443. From 2010 through 2013, his post-MVP career at catcher, he hit .317/.400/.447. Basically the same guy. While less valuable at first than behind the plate, that production is still very useful, especially in a power-laden lineup like Minnesota's. Mauer was never going to be the prototypical slugging first baseman but last year he was a highly valuable contributor from the position in his own right. As long as that continues, he'll be a welcome fixture. Mauer is in line for his fifth consecutive Opening Day start at first base. He grabbed the torch from Justin Morneau, who had rattled off eight in a row. It's been a long time since that real estate has been primarily occupied by anybody other than the M&M boys (or, M&M&M if you want to add Mientkiewicz). Could Logan Morrison be next in the long and proud lineage of M's at first base? The surprise addition is set to step in for Minnesota mainly as a DH, but made 119 starts at first for the Rays last year and certainly is capable defensively. Mauer is, of course, several notches above "capable" with the glove, so he's the preferred option to have on the field at this time. If Morrison dramatically outperforms Mauer at the plate (he edged him in OPS by almost 70 points last year), it will be interesting to see how things play out next offseason, when the latter is a 35-year-old free agent, and the former a 31-year-old with an $8 million option for 2019. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Regardless of what happens down the road, the Twins are quite fortunate to have both players on hand for now. Morrison can frequently fill in at first, helping keep the veteran starter fresh throughout the summer, and he's a strong backup plan should Mauer miss any significant time. There is widespread belief that eventually Brent Rooker, the 2017 draft pick recently ranked as Twins Daily's No. 7 prospect, will become the next entrenched inhabitant at first base. His advanced college bat caught on quickly in the pros, and it's not unthinkable he could be approaching MLB-ready by year's end. Lewin Diaz, though further off, is another future possibility. The organization seems to have a pretty good road map laid out at the position, with Morrison's flexible contract helping out in the short term. This much is clear: Mauer needs to prove this year he's still the team's best option going forward. The starting job will not simply be handed back to him 2019. THE BAD Even though he returned to hitting at essentially the highest level one could expect, Mauer still was not a standout offensive first baseman in 2017. While his .349 wOBA was tops since switching positions, he still ranked 18th out of 28 qualified big-leaguers at his new home. That's the tough thing. With his lack of power, any age-related decline for Mauer in terms of plate vision or bat speed could send him hurtling back toward the lowest ranks of productivity. And while they'll likely have other options, realistically it is going to take a while for the Twins to turn away from their longtime franchise centerpiece as a regular. In a nutshell, that's the foreseeable downside here. Mauer was mostly a non-factor in the lineup from 2014 through 2016, and similar output would be tougher to stomach on a (hopefully) contending team with (hopefully) appealing alternatives. In the event Mauer gets hurt or merits replacement, theoretically the Twins could plug Morrison in at first base and revert to their original DH plan: Robbie Grossman plus a rotation of others like Miguel Sano and Eduardo Escobar. Kennys Vargas was also part of that original plan but if everyone's healthy he has no path to a 25-man roster spot. He's out of options and someone is all but certain to take a gamble on his switch-hitting power bat once he lands on waivers. Since the start of 2016, Vargas has launched 21 home runs in 440 MLB plate appearances (about two-thirds of a season's worth) with a very respectable .788 OPS. He's not an easy loss but the Twins aren't going to carry a second-string DH, knowing they'll need to get Sano semi-regular at-bats there also. I'd like to think there's some non-contender willing to trot Vargas out at first base or DH for 600 plate appearances to see if he could become a cheap and serviceable slugger in the middle of its lineup for a few years. However, Vargas may need to go mash in Korea for a bit to open that window. THE BOTTOM LINE Mauer had a good season, punctuated by a very strong finish, and is heading into a new campaign with palpable momentum for the first time in years. In Morrison, the Twins have also added last year's No. 11 finisher in WAR among MLB first basemen. So, they're looking quite healthy in terms of immediate depth. Rooker and Diaz give them a pair of quality pipeline pieces at the position. And any number of other marginal defenders throughout the system could ultimately land there. Minnesota may be on the verge of transition at first base, but the uncertainty – at a position that's seen ridiculous stability over the past couple of decades – is more intriguing than foreboding. View full article

In the coming weeks, leading up to the start of the regular season, we'll take an in-depth look at every position for the 2018 Twins, breaking down the strengths, weaknesses, depth, and outlook for each. Today we kick off this new series by analyzing the catcher position, where Minnesota's reigning Minor League Player of the Year will be seeking to make a major impact. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today In the coming weeks, leading up to the start of the regular season, we'll take an in-depth look at every position for the 2018 Twins, breaking down the strengths, weaknesses, depth, and outlook for each. Today we kick off this new series by analyzing the catcher position, where Minnesota's reigning Minor League Player of the Year will be seeking to make a major impact. Projected Starter: Jason Castro Likely Backup: Mitch Garver Depth: Bobby Wilson, Willians Astudillo, Brian Navarreto Prospects: David Banuelos, Ben Rortvedt THE GOOD By signing Jason Castro to a three-year deal within his first few weeks on the job, GM Thad Levine was laying groundwork for a sustained platoon set-up at the catcher position. This year, we'll see that plan come to fruition. Mitch Garver, one of the best catching prospects developed by the Twins in some time, was nearing readiness a year ago but not quite there. Chris Gimenez was signed as a stopgap so Garver could continue growing in the minors. And grow he did. The 26-year-old enjoyed a breakout season at Rochester, with his offensive production elevating from good to great for the first time. He was especially effective against left-handed pitchers, slashing .290/.408/.530 with a 17% walk rate. That of course makes him an ideally suited complement to the lefty-hitting Twins incumbent. Castro actually didn't hit very well against right-handed pitchers in 2017, batting .234 with a .379 slugging percentage, but that's a departure from his career norm. And despite the overall struggles he still managed a 12.5% walk rate. In a potentially stacked Twins lineup, production at catcher figures to be a relative luxury. If Castro and Garver stay healthy, there's enough OBP floor here to suggest they'll at least keep the position from being a liability. Catcher is a punishing, brutal assignment however. The likelihood of both players avoiding the disabled list all summer is not high, and that's where things get a little dubious here. THE BAD The Twins are showing a ton of confidence in Garver, despite his .636 OPS during a brief MLB debut last year. They've given him a clear and unobstructed path to a roster spot as Castro's caddy – a significant role that should yield 200-300 plate appearances, and perhaps more if performance warrants. This is nice to see. The Twins are going all-in on a homegrown player who has absolutely earned the opportunity. But the degree to which they've put their eggs in the Garver basket borders on brazen. We're still in the first week of March, and both of Minnesota's top two catchers on the depth chart have already experienced minor health issues. Castro's been kept out of the lineup in recent days by migraines. Garver tweaked his knee last week seriously enough to require tests, but got good news from his scans, which showed no significant damage. If either player encounters a more substantial injury this month and needs to open the season on the disabled list, the Twins are presently lined up to go with Bobby Wilson on the 25-man roster. He's 34, hasn't surfaced in the majors since 2016, and owns a .587 big-league OPS. The two other guys getting reps in camp, Willians Astudillo and Brian Navarreto, have never played in the majors. Astudillo, I will say, is a little intriguing. He's never been much of a prospect but batted .342 in 36 games with Arizona's Triple-A affiliate last year, and more recently had an excellent showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. He never strikes out and is still only 26. Maybe there's something there. But, intrigue aside, the Twins have little in the way of established, viable MLB depth behind Castro and Garver. Navarreto has a .203 lifetime average in the minors, and the club's top upcoming prospects at the position – Rortvedt and Banuelos – have yet to reach Double-A. Possible injuries aren't the only concern stemming from Minnesota's lack of proven catching contingencies. Garver himself is unproven. He hit .196 in a month-long stint with the Twins last year and we hardly saw him tested defensively at the highest level. (He caught only 50 innings in six weeks with the club.) Because he'll have a low-pressure role, a high concentration of at-bats against southpaws, and plenty of days off from catching to rest his legs, Garver is being given almost ideal circumstances for a smooth transition into the majors. But he's still gotta do it. And if he's not up to the task, the Twins really don't have much in the way of fallback options at this point. THE BOTTOM LINE As you'll see throughout this series, the Twins have done well to build ample depth at almost every position. Catcher is an exception. If Garver gets overwhelmed, or gets hurt, or Castro gets hurt, this team could be in a tough spot. And, realistically, one of those things is probably going to happen at some point. At the same time, their ability to address this issue is limited. The Twins seem to be telling Garver, "The job is yours, you don't need to 'earn' it with your play in spring training, we're giving you a full shot here so go get it." Which is great! But it makes Minnesota an unappealing destination for any prospective addition who deserves to be in the majors. Even if a remaining free agent like Geovany Soto, Carlos Ruiz or Jonathan Lucroy reaches a point where he's willing to settle for a low-stakes minor-league contract, it won't be with a team that gives him almost zero opportunity to win even a backup job. Castro is a well established commodity at this point. He's a safe bet for an OPS around .700 with steady defense behind the plate. In 2017 he anchored a position that collectively finished with a .703 OPS, good for 10th in the American League. Garver represents the team's best chance to move the needle. He brings more to the table than Gimenez skill-wise, so if things click Garver could fuel big improvement for this unit. But right now, he's an unknown, and one of the biggest wild cards on the roster. View full article

March is underway and spring training is now in full swing. In fact, before we know it, the first round of camp cuts will already be upon us. As we wrap up the first full week of exhibition games, here's a look at three key Minnesota Twins storylines. Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today (Brian Dozier) March is underway and spring training is now in full swing. In fact, before we know it, the first round of camp cuts will already be upon us. As we wrap up the first full week of exhibition games, here's a look at three key Minnesota Twins storylines. * Heading into camp, it appeared the Twins were committed to keeping the designated hitter spot flexible this year, adhering to the revolving door approach that's basically been their norm. Not a bad idea for a team with a slow-footed fourth outfielder, an aging first baseman who benefits from rest, and a hefty third baseman coming off leg surgery. The arrival of Logan Morrison has flipped this dynamic on its side. Fresh off a 38-homer season with Tampa, Morrison is a big add for the offense, and figures to become a mainstay at DH. That will represent a change of course for the Twins, who haven't had a single player make 70+ starts at designated hitter since Jim Thome in 2010. In addition to stability, they'll hope Morrison can bring more production. Last year's DH cohort, led by Robbie Grossman, hit just .237/.328/.383 for a .711 OPS; only catchers (.703) yielded a worse mark among Twins position groups. Grossman appears to be thrust onto precarious ground by the new slugger's arrival. In 2017, 57% of his 456 plate appearances came as DH, and it's not clear the team is interested in shifting that balance toward the outfield. Last year Paul Molitor became very comfortable writing in the Rosario-Buxton-Kepler alignment almost every day, and there's no reason to expect him to deviate if all are healthy. Swapping in Grossman downgrades the defense, and it's not clear he's an offensive upgrade over any of the three. With that said, I have a really hard time envisioning Grossman being left off the roster. He led the team in on-base percentage in 2016 and ranked second last year. Even if he doesn't start frequently, there's plenty of value in a switch-hitter who can come off the bench and give you a disciplined AB from either side. One school of thought suggests the Twins could part with Grossman and carry Zack Granite as their fourth outfielder. I don't see it. Granite has multiple options remaining, so he can easily be stashed at Rochester until he's needed. He wouldn't serve much purpose on the Twins roster with all three starting outfielders healthy. And as for the forgotten man, Kennys Vargas? As Seth put it yesterday: "At this point, he's essentially getting at-bats to show 29 other teams what he can do." * Over the past few years, Brian Dozier has been known for launching bombs on the baseball field. Earlier this week, he dropped one in the clubhouse. Okay, that's a stretch. It's been clear for some time that Dozier was intent on testing the free agent market, and there've been zero rumors of contract negotiations with the Twins. Still, it was a bit surprising to see him so frontal and candid about his looming date with the open market. I respect it. Dozier might be going against the grain by dispelling the notion of a spring or in-season extension, but he's shutting it down as a talking point right off the bat and that's just fine. He insists it won't distract him this year and I believe it. Left unspoken by Dozier was this: He is very likely entering his final year as a Twin. We've seen how shrewd this new front office is; what are the chances they'd pay him the money he'll want as a 31-year-old, with Nick Gordon standing in line as a cheap long-term replacement? From the very start, Dozier's relationship with Minnesota's current baseball ops leadership has been lukewarm at best. The first thing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine did when they arrived was float him in highly publicized trade talks with the Dodgers. At the deadline Dozier openly took exception to the team's sudden pivot from buyer to seller. And the Twins haven't publicly hinted at any serious desire to hammer out a long-term deal with their best player. In the entirety of his MLB career up to this point, Dozier has pocketed about half of Joe Mauer's 2018 salary. If he's got a chip on his shoulder, and feels he's earned himself a windfall from whatever club is willing, I don't blame him in the least. Frankly, I can't wait to see how the added motivation manifests this season. * Speaking of Mauer, he too is heading into the final year of his contract, as you might have heard. Much like Dozier, he makes it no secret that he is going to let the 2018 season play out and go from there. But unlike his infield neighbor, Mauer won't be chasing a big payday in the fall – he'll be weighing retirement. Mauer, who turns 35 in a month, proved last year that he isn't cooked. (Before that, it was very much in question.) If he can continue at that 2017 level or better, it'd be an easy decision to invite him back on a short-term pact for around half his current salary. But if he reverts to something resembling his 2014-through-2016 form? Then things get interesting. These days, it isn't hard to find high-quality hitters who can play first base – Logan Morrison serving as case in point. In fact, by the end of this season, Morrison may have clearly established himself as the clearly superior offensive weapon, in which case he can be retained for $8 million in 2019. At that juncture, what's stopping the Twins from moving on? Well, there is Mauer's already mythical status within the franchise, and with at least some corners of the fanbase. Also: his phenomenal glove, familiarity in the clubhouse, and revered presence in the batter's box cannot be overlooked. But as we've seen with Dozier, the new brass ain't too sentimental. There's pretty much zero chance Mauer, with his deep Minnesota roots and young twin girls, is going to go play in another city for a year or two. He basically admitted as much: “This is where I want to be. This is where my family is, where my daughters are growing up. I have no intention of going anywhere else. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.” So, if his play this year doesn't inspire the Twins to make a serious run at bringing him back, we could be looking at the end of the road for Joe Mauer. And if this winds up being the last year in a Minnesota uniform for both he and Dozier – the two longest-tenured Twins – that's 25 combined years in the organization, walking into the sunset. The last enduring links to bygone eras. Can the new wave combine with the final vestiges of the old to make an epic run? It almost feels like... destiny. View full article

Yeah, I didn't mean to say, 'be ready to throw these guys out there and let them flap in the wind regardless of results.' I meant more, 'from a planning standpoint, they should be leaving flexibility to get these guys opportunities if they're cruising in Triple-A.' Yes, it should be a case-by-case basis. But if they call someone up and he struggles, it doesn't mean they made the wrong call. You could certainly make an argument that guys like Berrios, Gibson and May ultimately benefited from the initial shellackings they took in the big leagues, as all looked significantly more prepared and comfortable on that stage the following season. In each case there was some debate around whether it was really the right time to call them up. The thing is that the Twins were never in serious contention when those pitchers arrived so there's an added dynamic now at play.

Not saying that's true in all cases by any means. And I do think a guy can keep improving at Triple-A especially in a case like Berrios or Buxton where they were able to get exposure against MLB hitters to have those weaknesses crystallized before going back to work on them. It isn't about being able to afford it, though. It's just a reality they need to plan around. And hopefully it won't take 2-3 years to get through the growing pains. And the flip side of this is that Romero will already be down to his last option year in 2019. So you want to be pretty comfortable he's figured things out in the majors by the end of that year.

Will you feel differently if we get deep into the summer and the Twins are angling for a postseason spot with a shaky 5th starter while Romero torches Triple-A?

When a vaunted young player arrives in the major leagues and initially struggles, it's easy – perhaps even automatic – to jump to an inescapable conclusion: He was rushed. ... Was he though? Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today (Jose Berrios) When a vaunted young player arrives in the major leagues and initially struggles, it's easy – perhaps even automatic – to jump to an inescapable conclusion: He was rushed. ... Was he though? Jose Berrios arrived in the majors in 2016 at age 22. He went on to post an 8.02 ERA in 14 starts as a Twin. Must have been rushed. Byron Buxton reached the big leagues a year earlier in 2015, at age 21. He posted a brutal .576 OPS in 46 games with Minnesota. Had to be rushed. And last season, as Jorge Polanco slogged his way to the end of July, one of the worst hitters in baseball, we all found ourselves wondering: Should the 23-year-old really be playing at the highest level right now? (Not that the Twins had any choice in that case.) The "rushed" narrative is convenient. But not always accurate. Here's the problem: You send any of those guys back to Triple-A at the time they're flailing in the major leagues, and they dominate. Often to the point where you stop seeing any benefit. Buxton is a .331 career hitter at Triple-A. What's he learning if you send him back there? Minor-league batters waved at everything Berrios threw. How's he going to improve his command when 10 inches off the plate works perfectly well? Would Polanco have had the same epiphany last August if he hadn't endured the humbling stretch of failure that led up to it? These case studies hint toward a universal truth: Sometimes, the only way to become a successful big-leaguer is by working through your lumps in The Show. For a team like the Twins, deep into its rebuild-from-within, this presents a paradox. An Inefficient Market The immense value of an effective young starting pitcher in today's game is difficult to overstate. Successfully develop your own quality rotation staple, and you get optional control over (roughly) ages 24-through-30, most likely the best years his arm will ever see. All for a bit more than Jordan Zimmermann will earn this year alone in Detroit at age 32. Baseball's economics are out of whack, if you haven't noticed. If this was an elephant in the room, then the beast has now emerged into the sunlight. There's a reason Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb continue to wallow in free agency, their demands unmet. There's a reason the Rays are able to command a kingly sum for Chris Archer. Teams are finally seeing the lopsided value chasm across the free agency divide. Or at least, they're finally awakening to the extreme financial implications. My point here is that the Twins have every incentive to find out if Gonsalves or Romero – or Zack Littell, or Lewis Thorpe, or any number of other candidates – can become one of those treasured cheap young rotation staples. But finding out will require enduring some pain. Fits and Starts A few years ago, Peyton Manning retired with the most passing yards and touchdowns in NFL history. Nearly two decades prior, as a 22-year-old rookie, he threw a league-leading 28 interceptions as Colts fans endured a 3-13 death march. In many cases, even the greats require seasoning at the highest level to reach their potential. Not everyone is LeBron James or Randy Moss or Madison Bumgarner. It's unlikely such a rare specimen is currently in the Twins system. They have do have a number of guys capable of becoming quality big-league arms – perhaps even All-Stars. But history tells us it won't happen right away. Look back at virtually any big-name Minnesota pitcher you can think of from the past two decades – Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Johan Santana, Brad Radke – they all finished with ERAs over 5 in their first MLB seasons. They call the pitching mound a "hill" partially because of its shapely resemblance, but also because reaching the top can be a strenuous climb. Trouble with the Curves Gonsalves is going to open this season in Rochester. Romero is likely ticketed for Chattanooga, but with two dozen starts already under his belt there, he'll move up quickly. They're both still only 23, but Minnesota's top two pitching prospects could be making cases for promotions by July or so. We'll undoubtedly start hearing calls for them if anyone in the Twins rotation isn't pulling his weight. At that point, Twins decision-makers will need to weigh some difficult considerations. Do you leave these talented hurlers down on the farm, even if they're mowing down the International League, knowing the likely outcome of a call-up? There's always something to work on, always something to improve. Nothing wrong with waiting another year until they're 24 and a bit more refined, right? The problem here is that you might only be delaying the inevitable: a date with MLB's harsh learning curve. And there's another curve to think about here: aging. Pitchers generally experience their best years earlier than hitters. Velocity trends downward pretty much after age 20. If Gonsalves and Romero are healthy and throwing hard this summer, you don't necessarily want to waste a bunch of their bullets in the minors. Derek Falvey's analytically-minded pitching brain trust has access to far more data than me, and I trust them to take it seriously. It will be interesting to see how these realities weigh against a variety of other factors – a team in contention, a potentially crowded rotation scenario following returns of Ervin Santana and Trevor May, the unique ability of a stud like Romero to impact a division race if he can buck the trend and succeed immediately. Sometimes, you've gotta rush a little to get where you're going on time. View full article

So with LoMo added, here's how the Twins could maybe line up against RHP: 1. Dozier 2. Mauer 3. Buxton 4. Morrison 5. Sano 6. Rosario 7. Kepler 8. Polanco 9. Castro And they'll have tons of flexibility for subs against lefties, or late in games, with three switch-hitters on the bench. Molitor's going to have a lot to work with offensively this year.

Yep, MLB's StatCast guy Daren Willman posted Morrison's HR spray chart overlaid at Target Field. Almost all of them would've been well beyond the fence.

Kennys Vargas, we hardly knew ye. For anyone interested, here are all of Morrison's 38 home runs in 2017. You can see him launch a pair of majestic bombs at Target Field (both off lefty Hector Santiago) a bit after the 3-minute mark: https://youtu.be/XzETJ1cFmiQ

He was right on the fringe of our list. I believe a couple of us had him in the Top 20.

Yeah, that's part of what I struggle with. I think at this point I'd just let it ride. Hope you can fill the gaps and get by until Erv and May get back.

Over the past few weeks, we've counted down our choices for the Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects of 2018. Today, we'll recap our rankings and review in search of trends and takeaways. Over the past few weeks, we've counted down our choices for the Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects of 2018. Today, we'll recap our rankings and review in search of trends and takeaways. When recapping last year's list, I had to point out that we'd all been very spoiled by the likes of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios anchoring the front of Minnesota's prospect rankings. With all these heralded young studs graduating to the majors, the system didn't offer quite the same palpable excitement. This was reflected in national rankings: Baseball America's organizational talent rankings dropped the Twins from second in 2015 to 10th in 2016 to 22nd in 2017. Baseball Prospectus also had them 22nd last year, a freefall from seventh in '16. Well, I think we can safely say that after some positive developments, including an excellent draft aided by the pole position in each round, Minnesota's pipeline is full of intrigue, and perhaps ready to spoil us once again. BA now has the Twins back up to 12th in its rankings. BP bumped them up from 22nd to 10th. ESPN's Keith Law never soured as much as others, ranking them 11th last year, but he too views theirs as a Top 10 system in the game. We have a consensus: the collective minor-league talent in this organization is solidly above average. And given that there's so much youth and upside permeating the list, an ascent to the highest tier could be in the offing. Let's unpack what this group tells us about the franchise's future. First, here's a recap of our Top 20 Twins prospect rankings, with links and synopses: 20. Felix Jorge, RHP: Polished and near-ready, but ceiling is 4th/5th starter in MLB 19. Tyler Jay, LHP: Shook off grave health concerns in AFL, but needs to keep it going 18. Yunior Severino, 2B: Switch-hitting teenage infielder offers long-term promise with bat 17. Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/3B: Stock down a bit, but big year would put him back on map 16. Ben Rortvedt, C: Quality receiver will jump into Top 10 if he can find it at the plate 15. Mitch Garver, C: Accomplished minor-leaguer must now prove bat and glove are legit 14. LaMonte Wade, OF: OBP machine must add pop to project as more than 4th OF 13. Lewin Diaz, 1B: Power potential is evident, but yet to manifest and clock's ticking 12. Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Returned strong from 2-year absence; would move fast as RP 11. Zack Littell, RHP: Lacks dominant stuff, but floor is backend SP or swingman in MLB 10. Akil Baddoo, OF: Muscle-bound teen will be a beast if he keeps developing hit tool 9. Brusdar Graterol, RHP: Blew away hitters in rookie ball last year, touching triple digits 8. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Premier curveball and projectible frame point to ace upside 7. Brent Rooker, OF: Studious batsman has makings of a middle-of-lineup thumper 6. Wander Javier, SS: Possesses tools to become a two-way star at short if it all gels 5. Alex Kirilloff, OF: Ready to remind us of his offensive capabilities after a year off 4. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP: We'll learn soon if lefty's brilliance in minors can translate 3. Nick Gordon, SS: Floor is a solid big-league regular at 2B, but ceiling in question 2. Fernando Romero, RHP: Only pitcher over 20 in MN's system with legit ace potential 1. Royce Lewis, SS: At 18, phenom offers rare combo of elite athleticism, skills, makeup POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN Catchers: 2 Infielders: 6 Outfielders: 4 RH Pitchers: 5 LH Pitchers: 3 Although the overall group has changed quite a bit since a year ago, the positional composition hasn't much. Out: shortstop Engelb Vielma. In: another one in Lewis. Out: right-handers Justin Haley, Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois and Kohl Stewart. In: three more in Littell, Enlow and Graterol. There's a good sustaining balance in this system, but the notable area of concern is catcher. Garver will lose his prospect status with 48 more PAs in the majors. Rortvedt is 20 and raw. It would be helpful if David Banuelos, acquired from the Mariners for unneeded international cap money in a savvy December trade, could work his way onto next year's list. THE GREAT UNKNOWN One of the best parts about this collection of players is that you can really dream on it. Such youth and promise. But that's also the sticking point; so many of these kids haven't truly been challenged yet at the higher levels. Six players in this year's Top 20 are in their teens. The No. 1 pitching prospect (Romero) has thrown only 300 professional innings, while Nos. 3, 4 and 6 (Enlow, Graterol, Thorpe) have thrown fewer than that combined. Lots of young players look good in rookie ball and Single-A, only to fizzle on the advanced proving grounds thereafter. So, burnout risk weighs heavier than usual here. But when you see what guys like Lewis and Javier and Enlow are doing, at such early stages of development, it's impossible not to dream big. INJURY BUG REMOVAL? Injuries are a reality of the game. No organization avoids their pernicious sting. However, it sure feels like the Twins have been dealt an especially bad hand. Romero and Thorpe have both lost two full consecutive seasons. Kirilloff became the second Twins position player and Top-5 prospect to require Tommy John surgery within a span of three years. As recently as late last summer, it was looking like Jay – two years removed from being drafted sixth overall – might be ruined by shoulder issues. This system is about due for some good fortune with health, and not just because of a karmic swing. Pitchers don't often need TJ surgery twice, so one would hope Romero, Thorpe and Graterol are in the clear with their reconstructed elbows. (No assurances, of course.) Perennial DL denizens Burdi and Chargois (?) have moved on from the organization. Pretty much everyone on this list is presently trending in a good direction physically, and while that can change in a hurry, it's a nice feeling. PITCHER PARADE Why have the Twins been so reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term deal? It might have something to do with the waves of young arms slated to come ashore over the next few several years. Here's when the eight pitchers on this list are expected to reach the majors, per our ETAs: 2018: Romero, Gonsalves, Littell, Jay, Jorge 2019: Thorpe 2021: Enlow, Graterol Five of Minnesota's top eight pitching prospects have realistic shots at pitching in the majors this year (Jorge already has), and even Thorpe isn't out of the question. Enlow and Graterol form a high-upside duo for the future and will surely be joined by other rising hurlers. No, these guys won't all be good right away – maybe none of them will – but they need innings to develop in the majors and that must be accounted for. FINAL THOUGHTS Not long ago, the Twins had the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. It would be no surprise to anyone paying attention if Lewis soon joined Buxton (and Mauer before them) in earning that distinction. Some would say it's hard to miss with the first or second pick in the entire draft, but plenty of teams have managed. Frankly I'd be satisfied solely with the exhilaration of getting to watch Lewis unleashed in his first full pro season, but this system offers so many more enthralling storylines. Are Romero and Gonsalves about ready to provide the internal boost this rotation badly needs? Will Kirilloff and Javier go from sleepers to sensations as they bring their vaunted games to Single-A? What might we see from the lefty arms of Thorpe and Jay if they can stay healthy for a full summer? Could Rooker make it to Minnesota this year? I can't wait to follow this group into 2018 and beyond. High-risk/high-reward would be a fair assessment, but at this time of year it's only natural to focus on the latter. View full article

I've said this before, but if I were in charge my approach might be to create a list of remaining free agent pitchers in order of preference, reach out to each one and say "What amount would it take to get you to consider a one-year deal?" then sign the first one who says something you consider reasonable.

Kind of interesting to see this story from Jon Heyman pop up right after the Twins waived J.T. Chargois to mysteriously open up a 40-man roster spot: https://www.fanragsports.com/twins/heyman-could-lance-lynn-be-final-piece-for-twins/ They certainly have the money to spend, and I've sorta felt Lynn's been underrated in free agent SP discussions, but I'm not sure I see him as a fit right now. Thoughts?

It says a lot about Royce Lewis that he could probably write this profile about himself and it would be more accurate – encompassing all the good and bad – than anything I could hope to draft. Mature, wise, and self-aware beyond his years, Lewis possesses an extremely rare makeup that has many people (including myself) convinced he'll harness his incredible talent and turn into a big-league star. It's only a matter of when. It says a lot about Royce Lewis that he could probably write this profile about himself and it would be more accurate – encompassing all the good and bad – than anything I could hope to draft. Mature, wise, and self-aware beyond his years, Lewis possesses an extremely rare makeup that has many people (including myself) convinced he'll harness his incredible talent and turn into a big-league star. It's only a matter of when. Age: 18 (DOB: 6/5/99) 2017 Stats (Rookie/Low-A): 239 PA, .279/.381/.407, 4 HR, 27 RBI ETA: 2020 2017 Ranking: NA National Top 100 Rankings BA: 24 | MLB: 20 | ESPN: 25 | BP: 27 What's To Like It's tough to weigh things like disposition and character in prospect evaluations, especially from afar. Clearly they matter, but to to what extent? And how can you really quantify such intangible and subjective qualities? It's easier to focus on the concrete and palpable: skills, athleticism, body type. And in each of these areas, Lewis grades out beautifully. But you can't really talk about him as a player without mentioning his striking composure. You can plainly see from watching him talk that the 18-year-old, not a year removed from high school, is unusually sharp and eloquent for his age. He was invited to appear at TwinsFest in January, a rarity for freshly drafted teenagers but a no-brainer in his case. Upon being selected first overall last June, he stashed his $6.7 million signing bonus in a trust fund, opting to live off his modest minor-league wage and foregoing the typical flashy celebratory splurge. “This guy has a chance to change a franchise with his personality and charisma,” said Twins scouting director Sean Johnson upon selecting Lewis. “He’s a magnet. People want to be around him.” Count Lewis's first manager in the system, Ramon Borrego, as a believer. Er, unbeliever. “He’s unbelievable," said the Gulf Coast League skipper. "He knows how to focus. The good thing about him, is he’s very humble. This kid is different." Personality. Charisma. Focus. Humility. These are good traits in that they project a leader and high-caliber clubhouse presence. But they're also overprescribed and, at times, overblown. It's about what you can do on the field. Fortunately, Lewis's intellect and acumen extend there as well. He's lauded for his baseball IQ, grasping the game's complexities naturally. He recognizes his own weaknesses and limitations in a way you don't often see. When you ask around, you hear the same thing about Lewis repeatedly: He gets it. He's not presumptive or entitled, and anyone can see it. He's also a realist: "They told me to play at short until I prove I can't," Lewis said last month, candidly adding: "I know I can always transition to center field and play at a high level." Regardless of where he ends up defensively, he figures to be an asset with his top-end speed (he's no Byron Buxton, but he's not that far off) and smooth movements. Lewis's hitting tools are advanced, which was made obvious by his bat's seamless entry into the pro ranks. Lewis posted an .803 OPS in the GCL, with more walks than strikeouts, and impressed the organization so much he was promoted straight to Cedar Rapids in August. He ended up being the third-youngest player to take an AB in the Midwest League. Despite facing opponents nearly three years older on average, Lewis more than held his own, batting .296/.363/.394. He finished 18-for-21 on stolen bases between the two levels. The No. 1 pick is a speedy, selective, disciplined contact hitter, and prospect analysts are unanimous in believing that more power – perhaps much more – is on the way as he fills out. Once that element of his game arrives, Lewis could become the true embodiment of a five-tool player. What's Left To Work On Adding muscle mass will be a key area of focus in the next couple of seasons. Lewis checked in last year at 6'2" and under 190 lbs. "I feel like I haven't grown into any of my man strength yet," as he puts it. He's already well on his way to bulking up, having reportedly added around 15 pounds in the offseason. It would be no surprise to see a rapid uptick in power, which would place him on a mind-boggling trajectory offensively. The more interesting thing to track right now is his defensive development. The Cali native didn't play shortstop until his senior year of high school, and was – according to ESPN's Keith Law – "well-below-average" at the position as a prep. Lewis showed reasonably well at short in his pro debut, but the jury is out, to say the least. If his efforts in the weight room lead to improved arm strength, that could change this outlook. What's Next? "I'm patient. I'm still only 18 and don't turn 19 until June." More astute words from the man himself. Patience is warranted. Lewis is the best player on our Top 20 list but also the youngest. He finds himself on the fast track after tackling Low-A within three months of being drafted, but the Twins will probably take it somewhat slow with him, even if he forces the issue on his end. For comparison, Buxton – who hardly could have performed better during his rapid ascent through the minors – didn't reach the majors until three years and eight days after his draft date. That same timeline would put Lewis in a Twins uniform around June of 2020. However, Lewis is already ahead of Buxton's pace, and Buck also lost nearly an entire season in the minors to injury. So, who knows. Right now Lewis has a fair shot at beating the precedent set by Buxton, and possibly even fellow first overall pick Joe Mauer, who first donned a Minnesota uniform at age 20, on the third Opening Day after he was drafted. If Lewis remains on a fast track and moves to center along the way, as many expect, it's going to create an interesting dilemma given Buxton's presence. But that's a dilemma the Twins will be happy to have on their hands. TD Top Prospects: 16-20 TD Top Prospects: 11-15 TD Top Prospect: #10 Akil Baddoo TD Top Prospect: #9 Brusdar Graterol TD Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow TD Top Prospects: #7 Brent Rooker TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier TD Top Prospects: #5 Alex Kirilloff TD Top Prospects: #4 Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospects: #3 Nick Gordon TD Top Prospects: #2 Fernando Romero TD Top Prospects: #1 Royce Lewis View full article

That was kind of what I was pondering after your first comment. Thanks for all the detail and images, good stuff. Btw, all this talk about splitter/changeups had me thinking back to Jared Burton and all the buzz around his "splangeup." Back then it was considered kind of a unique pitch. Now, not so much? Seemingly the hybrid has grown more common.

Interesting. The pitch is described as a splitter almost everywhere I've read -- MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Detroit's local newspaper...

We're about to find out. When Derek Falvey was hired to run Minnesota's baseball ops, he brought with him a rep as a pitching guru, partially responsible for constructing the enviable staff in Cleveland. That group, of course, wasn't assembled through big-money free agent signings, but through savvy trades and superior development strategies. So it comes as no surprise that he's attempting to apply this same model with the Twins. It's why he was hired. Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today (Jake Odorizzi) We're about to find out. When Derek Falvey was hired to run Minnesota's baseball ops, he brought with him a rep as a pitching guru, partially responsible for constructing the enviable staff in Cleveland. That group, of course, wasn't assembled through big-money free agent signings, but through savvy trades and superior development strategies. So it comes as no surprise that he's attempting to apply this same model with the Twins. It's why he was hired. While Ivy League educations are now becoming the norm at 1 Twins Way, it didn't take a Harvard grad to see that Minnesota needed to seriously upgrade its rotation for 2018. Opinions differ on the seriousness of their attempts, but the Twins did take a shot at top names like Yu Darvish and Chris Archer this offseason. When they deemed the threshold for acquiring these potential aces too high for their liking, Falvey and GM Thad Levine lowered their gaze substantially and pivoted to a pair of extremely low-risk – and seemingly low-upside – options. On Friday, they signed free agent Anibal Sanchez to a non-guaranteed deal that will max out at $5 million if he sticks and earns incentives. A day later, they traded shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Jake Odorizzi. These certainly aren't the kinds of authoritative, high-impact additions fans hoped to see. In terms of money, commitment length, and player capital, the Twins gave up very little to bring the two aboard. It appears Falvey is going all-in on his revamped department's ability to maximize these assets and extract hidden value. Between the two cases, there is a common thread worth keeping an eye on. Suite of Arms Ever since he arrived in 2016, Falvey has been systematically and continually building out the organization's baseball operations. His inspired outside hires have included Director of Baseball Operations Daniel Adler and Director of Minor League Operations Jeremy Zoll, both renowned for their intelligence and analytical chops. Falvey is a strong believer in collaboration, astutely understanding that successful execs surround themselves with the right people and listen to them. To this end, he has put a clear focus on pitching specializations. Last summer, the Twins brought in former big-league hurler Jeremy Hefner as a data-driven video scout. In December, they lured Josh Kalk – considered a pitching analytics expert – away from the Rays as a senior analyst. That latter name is interesting with regard to Minnesota's newest player acquisition. Kalk is of course very familiar with Odorizzi, who threw almost 700 innings in Tampa after being picked up in the 2012 James Shields trade. The right-hander was highly effective in 2015 and 2016, posting a 3.53 ERA and 3.98 FIP. With those kinds of numbers, he'd be a slam-dunk add for Minnesota – especially at the cost of Palacios, a good-not-great prospect who was buried on the org depth chart. Of course, Odorizzi wasn't that same pitcher in 2017, producing career-worsts in ERA (4.14 ERA) and FIP (5.43). But it stands to reason that Kalk and others see something fixable. Leveraging the very same PitchF/X data that Kalk is said to have excelled with using in Tampa Bay, Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs argued over the weekend that Odorizzi may be one adjustment away from turning the corner. The piece is worth reading, as Sawchik lays out pitch usage, location, release points and more to establish a fairly convincing case for Odorizzi's issues being correctable. The Anibal Challenge Turning around a pitcher like Odorizzi – a former first-rounder and top prospect who's still only 27 and has a recent track record of MLB success – isn't a monumental undertaking. Far more ambitious was the assignment Minnesota's brain trust took on a day earlier, with the signing of Sanchez. When news came down on Friday afternoon that the Twins had reached agreement with the embattled right-hander, it hit like a ton of bricks, for numerous reasons. Pent-up frustration of a long and unfulfilling winter, punctuated by the recent Darvish letdown, surely factored. But there's also this: Sanchez has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the league over the past few years. Twins fans have watched from up-close while his $80 million contract with the Tigers deteriorated into a liability they paid $5 million to cut loose after last season. In 2017 Sanchez faced the Twins far more than any other team, and posted an 8.69 ERA against them. In 2016 he went 0-4 with a 10.13 ERA in four starts against Falvey's Indians. This front office has has seen Sanchez at his worst, extensively, and they still wanted him. In an odd way, that kind of inspires confidence. While it's easy to draw parallels, this isn't in the same vein as ill-fated past investments like Kevin Correia or Jason Marquis. It could easily end up the same way, but the Sanchez signing wasn't simply an attempt to procure veteran innings, regardless of their quality. It's said to be an "analytically driven" move. And, at a glance, there is some validity to it. Last September, Tigers reporter Evan Woodbery wrote that while Sanchez's time in Detroit was assuredly coming to a close, "There will be a team (or perhaps several) enticed by his peripherals, which remain incredibly, absurdly, inexplicably strong for a pitcher with a 7-ish ERA." Sure enough, it would seem the Twins weren't alone in having interest. Although Sanchez's contract is non-guaranteed, it is a major-league deal, meaning that he will occupy a 40-man roster spot in camp and is entitled to more compensation if he gets cut than your typical non-roster invite (e.g. last year's nonconventional pet project, Craig Breslow). The fact that an MLB contract was required to get this done suggests Minnesota was not bidding against itself. Despite the ugly numbers, Sanchez has some legitimately appealing qualities. His 3.59 K/BB ratio in 2017 would've outranked every Twins starter. He induced a spectacular 15% swinging strike rate over his final four starts and averaged a strikeout per inning in the second half. Just like Odorizzi, the 34-year-old hurler's biggest weakness last year was the long ball. Although his fastball has gradually lost its oomph, becoming entirely too hittable in the process, Sanchez's splitter-changeup remains a powerful weapon. He also has that much in common with Odorizzi, who himself leans on a vaunted split-fingered change, having learned the grip from former Rays teammate (and current free agent) Alex Cobb. It's worth noting that Fernando Rodney, another newly minted member of the Twins pitching staff, features a "magic changeup" of his own. The changeup was said to be a key focus that Neil Allen brought over from Tampa's system when he came on as pitching coach, and while he has moved on, that emphasis evidently has not. The Big Gamble In acquiring Odorizzi and Sanchez, the Twins are minimizing their material risk. They've only given up an expendable prospect and about $11 million, tops. They're not tied to either pitcher beyond 2018 (though Odorizzi will be arbitration-eligible again in 2019). But in another sense, they're taking a huge risk, by betting so strongly on their own ability to help these pitchers cut down on long balls and reach another level of production. Misguided overconfidence would be hugely detrimental, because this pitching staff needed a much bigger jolt than the 2017 versions of Odorizzi or Sanchez would provide. Much bigger. The Breslow experiment, while carrying far lower stakes, went down as a whiff on Falvine's first analytically driven attempt to uncover a diamond in the rough. Will these ventures, overseen by a collection of brilliant minds in the front office and guided by a new pitching coach in Garvin Alston, turn out more favorably? For a team that's already making a number of precarious gambles in the rotation, with players like Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia figuring to land spots, rounding out the mix with Odorizzi and Sanchez is a harrowing choice, even if the mindset behind it is sound and reasonable. View full article