Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Nick Nelson

Site Manager
  • Posts

    8,372
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    56

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Nick Nelson

  1. Since I posted the aforementioned article on May 9th, Cleveland has gone 17-11, pushing its lead over Minnesota from 1.0 games to 6.0 games. The Indians have overcome some serious bullpen issues thanks to MVP contender Jose Ramirez powering the offense and runaway Cy Young front-runner Corey Kluber leading the rotation. On Monday, they called up Francisco Mejia, ranked by MLB.com as the 11th-best prospect in the game. This doesn't look like a club that'll be easily run down. Minnesota certainly doesn't appear equipped to make up all that ground, not presently anyway. They're coming off another lackluster week that saw their fledgling momentum dissolve before deflated fans at Target Field. Here on June 11th, Minnesota is 28-34 and reeling. But it's not quite time to give up on them yet. At the beginning of May I tried to shed some optimism following a crummy first month, by pointing out that in 2006 the Twins had also finished April with a 9-15 record. Here we are, almost six weeks later, and the parallel still fits. On June 11th, 2006, the Twins were 28-34, same as today. They faced a much larger deficit in the standings, 11 games. As you'll recall, that team finished with 96 wins and a division title. They didn't wait much longer, of course. The '06 Twins rattled off victories in 19 of their next 20 games, astoundingly making up only two games in the standings as first-place Detroit went on a coinciding tear. But in the second half, Minnesota gradually gained ground, finally surpassing the Tigers on the season's final day. What I'm getting at here is that we're still not in hopeless territory. Even if you don't buy the literal comparison between this year's Twins and the 2006 version (I'm not sure I do), the point is that things can change quickly in this game. And while one might be inclined to lament, "It's getting late early," the night ain't over yet. One thing you can say about these current Twins is that the pitching staff has been quite impressive. Starters are giving the team a chance to win every night and the bullpen has been mostly solid. Minnesota posted a 3.52 ERA in May and are at 3.50 in June. Combine that kind of performance with the Twins offense from last year's second half, when they averaged 5.6 runs per game, and you've got the recipe for a 20-win month. Needless to say, the current lineup hasn't resembled that one at all, but it soon might – at least in terms of personnel. Joe Mauer is on a rehab assignment and could be back as soon as Thursday. Byron Buxton is traveling with the team and taking positive steps. Jorge Polanco is suddenly only a few weeks from returning. Brian Dozier is approaching that point in the summer where a light bulb usually flicks on. Get all these guys clicking in the lineup together while Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar keep clubbing away, and you can start to envision the Twins stringing together some lengthy winning streaks. I'll admit that right now it's difficult not to feel weighed down by pessimism. Mauer's concussion symptoms can re-emerge at any time. Buxton has looked abysmal at the plate when not sidelined. And Miguel Sano... yeesh. But as I said before, things can change quickly in this game. The '06 Twins are a good macro example and Polanco is a good micro example. Last July he had one of the worst months you'll ever see, slashing .078/.158/.115 while collecting only four hits in 17 games. Then, the calendar flipped and he was a suddenly a monster, putting up a .373/.413/.686 line in August. A few similar offensive outbreaks from players we know are capable, along with some desperately needed good fortune on the health front, would make a big difference for this year's squad. As we get deeper into the season, it grows harder to believe that these aren't the real Twins – this relentlessly disappointing bunch, constantly shrinking in big moments and fumbling away key opportunities. But I'm still not totally convinced that's who they are. Granted, at some point it won't really matter. The hole will become too deep and the Twins will have no choice but to approach the trade deadline as sellers. We're not there yet, though. Urgency grows as Minnesota heads out on a critical road trip that gets underway on Tuesday in Detroit. The Tigers likely remember that magical Twins turnaround in 2006. Their manager definitely does.
  2. 'Pretty much status quo,' was Paul Molitor's response Saturday when asked for an update on Joe Mauer. That's also a pretty apt description of his team, which turned in another uninspiring week that saw them further fade in a division race that represents their only real shot at reaching the postseason. On Sunday we learned that Mauer is headed for a rehab assignment. Things are hopefully headed in the right direction for him. Tougher to feel that way about the Twins in general. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today 'Pretty much status quo,' was Paul Molitor's response Saturday when asked for an update on Joe Mauer. That's also a pretty apt description of his team, which turned in another uninspiring week that saw them further fade in a division race that represents their only real shot at reaching the postseason. On Sunday we learned that Mauer is headed for a rehab assignment. Things are hopefully headed in the right direction for him. Tougher to feel that way about the Twins in general. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/4 through Sun, 6/10 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 28-34) Run Differential Last Week: 0 (Overall: -11) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS While a few crucial players have failed to deliver on offense for the Twins this year, others have stepped up in a big way. Namely, I'm talking about Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar. The continued growth of these two at the plate is invigorating to behold. Rosario and Escobar have not only been among the best power bats on the team, but in the league. Escobar had a monster week, collecting multiple hits in five of seven games and pushing his XBH total on the season to 39, tied for the major-league lead. Esco's late three-run homer in Tuesday's first game salvaged a victory and he added three more hits in the nightcap. He's slugging .895 this month and suddenly finds himself on track for the best power-hitting season in Twins history: https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1005452404333015040 At this point we should just call them Esc-tra base hits. Right? Rosario, meanwhile, stayed in the zone after capping last week with a three-homer game. He delivered four multi-hit games and one big home run. I mentioned last time that the most deeply encouraging part of his progression was the enhanced plate discipline. That continued as he drew three walks against three strikeouts. HIs improvements in this regard over the course of the year have been evident, and have bolstered his overall production: The rotation also saw some notably strong performances last week, with Jose Berrios picking up a complete-game victory on Thursday, Lance Lynn turning in his fourth consecutive quality start on Friday, and Kyle Gibson firing seven strong innings on Saturday. LOWLIGHTS On days like Thursday, it's easy to dream on this squad and the kind of run they're capable of putting together. Berrios cruised through nine, Escobar and Rosario powered the offense with five RBIs, and Minnesota enjoyed a comfortable lopsided victory. But those types of games have been few and far between. Much more often, the Twins have been entangled in close battles, and they've usually come out on the losing end, as illustrated by a 3-13 record in one-run contests. Bullpen lapses have played their role of late, with Ryan Pressly suddenly getting clobbered and Addison Reed continually giving up gopher balls in key spots. But the biggest culprit is a punchless offense, which went back in the tank after seemingly breaking out the previous week. The Twins lineup was more or less shut down by every starter it faced other than James Shields and Nick Tropeano. Minnesota scored more than four times only twice in seven games, all played in their home park. Unless the Eds are doing heroic things, or someone like Jake Cave puts together a random outburst, it seems this offense can't muster much of anything. That kind of isolated production is the opposite of what we hoped to see from a unit that, late last year, was spectacular in its depth and relentlessness. While no one other than Rosario and Escobar is hitting much, the flabbergasting futility of Miguel Sano is most conspicuous and upsetting. As Sano came out of the gates this year striking out an egregious 40%+ rate, it stood to reason that he'd eventually shake off the rust and rein it in. The big man has always been K-prone – an acceptable consequence of swinging as hard as he does – but he's mostly kept it within reason. If he continued to fan at the same rate he did in 2017, Sano was probably going to lead the league in K% this year, and very possibly set the all-time record for strikeouts in a season. But you live with it, because all those whiffs were to be accompanied by lots of walks and thunderous power. Instead, his K-rate has climbed, maintaining at 40% after 11 strikeouts in 24 plate appearances last week. He drew one walk and has only seven on the season. Sano has lost any semblance of pitch recognition, lacking either the will or ability to lay off two-strike breaking balls well out of the zone. He has become remarkably easy to pitch to. This is a nightmarish situation with no clear solution. The Twins could justifiably send Sano down to Rochester, as he has two options remaining, but it'd be to send a message more than anything. Maybe that's necessary at this point. But he isn't going to learn to read MLB-caliber spin while facing inferior pitchers at Triple-A. Sano needs to wake up and get it together. It's hard to feel like this stagnation isn't stemming in some way from a lack of commitment on his part. Rust is no longer a credible excuse. Lingering hamstring tenderness wouldn't explain the consistently subpar quality of his at-bats. This is a 25-year-old at a crossroad in his career and life. Sadly the "what ifs" are louder now than ever before. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins need to get more out of the catcher position. Bobby Wilson is playing like you'd expect from a 35-year-old journeyman who's never been able to find sustained work in the majors. Mitch Garver is batting .215 with five extra-base hits in 89 PA since Jason Castro went down, and hasn't been impressive defensively. Early last week, the Twins signed Cameron Rupp after he opted out of his minor-league deal with the Rangers. The 29-year-old backstop has a fair amount of experience in the majors, and was hitting very well in Class-AAA Round Rock with an .886 OPS. If he produces like that in Rochester it won't be long before he gets a chance in Minnesota. Of particular interest is Rupp's penchant for mashing left-handed pitching. He has at an .879 career OPS vs. southpaws in the big leagues, and was at 1.304 in Triple-A this year before coming over. The Twins are slugging just .381 against lefties as a team. DOWN ON THE FARM It's safe to say that Brent Rooker made a very strong impression on the crew here at Twins Daily. Coming into this season, we had him ranked as the No. 7 prospect in a fairly stacked system, which he'd only been part of for a few months after being drafted last June. Sure, he's a big powerful hitter who posted strong numbers in his pro debut. But what really stood out about Rooker was his studious mindset when it comes to hitting – his deep commitment to understanding and mastering the craft. It felt like whatever hurdles the Mississippi State University product encountered, he'd find a way to overcome them. His 2018 season has been a perfect demonstration of what makes Rooker so exciting. The Twins sent him to Double-A to open the year – a fairly aggressive assignment, but one the organization clearly thought he could handle. And they were right. Rooker endured his struggles in the early going, posting a brutal .213/.234/.320 line with 25 strikeouts and one walk. But, exactly as you'd hope, he started making gradual adjustments and getting things on track. Over his next 20 games he would hit .256/.300/.427. And now, after turning in a spectacular past week for the Lookouts (10 hits and 10 walks in 28 PA) he's at .342/.437/.698 over his past 19. Just as we hoped, Rooker is establishing himself as a potential late-season reinforcement for the Twins offense. If he keeps raking they way he has recently, his potent right-handed bat will begin to look very appealing around August – especially if Mauer has setbacks and/or Logan Morrison never finds a prolonged groove. Capable of making a more immediate impact, perhaps, is LaMonte Wade, who was promoted to Rochester over the weekend after hitting .298/.393/.444 over 46 games in Chattanooga. That those numbers very closely match his career line in the minors (.296/.402/.438) speaks to the consistency with which Wade has produced since joining the Twins as a ninth-round draft pick in 2015. He's a high-OBP, low-power corner outfielder in the mold of Robbie Grossman, which might not make him the sexiest prospect, but it's a nice piece to have around on the cheap. LOOKING AHEAD It's not over yet. If the Twins are able to put together a good week on the road, winning their series in Detroit and Cleveland, they'll be in much better position than they currently find themselves. I wish they'd done anything to make us confident that is going to happen. TUESDAY, 6/12: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Blaine Hardy WEDNESDAY, 6/13: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Matthew Boyd THURSDAY, 6/14: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Michael Fulmer FRIDAY, 6/15: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Corey Kluber SATURDAY, 6/16: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Fernando Romero v. RHP Carlos Carrasco SUNDAY, 6/17: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jake Odorizzi vs RHP Adam Plutko Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 56 + 57 | Escobar Hits Dramatic Home Run, Twins Split Doubleheader Game 58 | CHW 5, MIN 2: Time is Running Out Game 59: MIN 7, CHW 2: Berrios CG, Power from the Eds Fuel Twins Victory Game 60 | LAA 4, MIN 2: Bullpen, Bats Spoil Strong Start from Lynn Game 61 | LAA 2, MIN 1: Is This a Rerun? Game 62 | MIN 7, LAA 5: Jake Cave Sparks a Fire More on Twins Daily The MLB Draft took place last week, and Andrew Thares covered it beautifully here at Twins Daily. Check out his Twins 2018 Draft recap, and find links to his write-ups on the top two picks and more within. In Cody Christie's latest roundtable piece, many TD contributors weighed in with a diverse range of opinions on which player contracts the Twins should be focused on extending. I took a look at the some potentially available targets and called out three potential catcher upgrades on the trade market. View full article
  3. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/4 through Sun, 6/10 *** Record Last Week: 3-4 (Overall: 28-34) Run Differential Last Week: 0 (Overall: -11) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (5.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS While a few crucial players have failed to deliver on offense for the Twins this year, others have stepped up in a big way. Namely, I'm talking about Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar. The continued growth of these two at the plate is invigorating to behold. Rosario and Escobar have not only been among the best power bats on the team, but in the league. Escobar had a monster week, collecting multiple hits in five of seven games and pushing his XBH total on the season to 39, tied for the major-league lead. Esco's late three-run homer in Tuesday's first game salvaged a victory and he added three more hits in the nightcap. He's slugging .895 this month and suddenly finds himself on track for the best power-hitting season in Twins history: https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1005452404333015040 At this point we should just call them Esc-tra base hits. Right? Rosario, meanwhile, stayed in the zone after capping last week with a three-homer game. He delivered four multi-hit games and one big home run. I mentioned last time that the most deeply encouraging part of his progression was the enhanced plate discipline. That continued as he drew three walks against three strikeouts. HIs improvements in this regard over the course of the year have been evident, and have bolstered his overall production: The rotation also saw some notably strong performances last week, with Jose Berrios picking up a complete-game victory on Thursday, Lance Lynn turning in his fourth consecutive quality start on Friday, and Kyle Gibson firing seven strong innings on Saturday. LOWLIGHTS On days like Thursday, it's easy to dream on this squad and the kind of run they're capable of putting together. Berrios cruised through nine, Escobar and Rosario powered the offense with five RBIs, and Minnesota enjoyed a comfortable lopsided victory. But those types of games have been few and far between. Much more often, the Twins have been entangled in close battles, and they've usually come out on the losing end, as illustrated by a 3-13 record in one-run contests. Bullpen lapses have played their role of late, with Ryan Pressly suddenly getting clobbered and Addison Reed continually giving up gopher balls in key spots. But the biggest culprit is a punchless offense, which went back in the tank after seemingly breaking out the previous week. The Twins lineup was more or less shut down by every starter it faced other than James Shields and Nick Tropeano. Minnesota scored more than four times only twice in seven games, all played in their home park. Unless the Eds are doing heroic things, or someone like Jake Cave puts together a random outburst, it seems this offense can't muster much of anything. That kind of isolated production is the opposite of what we hoped to see from a unit that, late last year, was spectacular in its depth and relentlessness. While no one other than Rosario and Escobar is hitting much, the flabbergasting futility of Miguel Sano is most conspicuous and upsetting. As Sano came out of the gates this year striking out an egregious 40%+ rate, it stood to reason that he'd eventually shake off the rust and rein it in. The big man has always been K-prone – an acceptable consequence of swinging as hard as he does – but he's mostly kept it within reason. If he continued to fan at the same rate he did in 2017, Sano was probably going to lead the league in K% this year, and very possibly set the all-time record for strikeouts in a season. But you live with it, because all those whiffs were to be accompanied by lots of walks and thunderous power. Instead, his K-rate has climbed, maintaining at 40% after 11 strikeouts in 24 plate appearances last week. He drew one walk and has only seven on the season. Sano has lost any semblance of pitch recognition, lacking either the will or ability to lay off two-strike breaking balls well out of the zone. He has become remarkably easy to pitch to. This is a nightmarish situation with no clear solution. The Twins could justifiably send Sano down to Rochester, as he has two options remaining, but it'd be to send a message more than anything. Maybe that's necessary at this point. But he isn't going to learn to read MLB-caliber spin while facing inferior pitchers at Triple-A. Sano needs to wake up and get it together. It's hard to feel like this stagnation isn't stemming in some way from a lack of commitment on his part. Rust is no longer a credible excuse. Lingering hamstring tenderness wouldn't explain the consistently subpar quality of his at-bats. This is a 25-year-old at a crossroad in his career and life. Sadly the "what ifs" are louder now than ever before. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins need to get more out of the catcher position. Bobby Wilson is playing like you'd expect from a 35-year-old journeyman who's never been able to find sustained work in the majors. Mitch Garver is batting .215 with five extra-base hits in 89 PA since Jason Castro went down, and hasn't been impressive defensively. Early last week, the Twins signed Cameron Rupp after he opted out of his minor-league deal with the Rangers. The 29-year-old backstop has a fair amount of experience in the majors, and was hitting very well in Class-AAA Round Rock with an .886 OPS. If he produces like that in Rochester it won't be long before he gets a chance in Minnesota. Of particular interest is Rupp's penchant for mashing left-handed pitching. He has at an .879 career OPS vs. southpaws in the big leagues, and was at 1.304 in Triple-A this year before coming over. The Twins are slugging just .381 against lefties as a team. DOWN ON THE FARM It's safe to say that Brent Rooker made a very strong impression on the crew here at Twins Daily. Coming into this season, we had him ranked as the No. 7 prospect in a fairly stacked system, which he'd only been part of for a few months after being drafted last June. Sure, he's a big powerful hitter who posted strong numbers in his pro debut. But what really stood out about Rooker was his studious mindset when it comes to hitting – his deep commitment to understanding and mastering the craft. It felt like whatever hurdles the Mississippi State University product encountered, he'd find a way to overcome them. His 2018 season has been a perfect demonstration of what makes Rooker so exciting. The Twins sent him to Double-A to open the year – a fairly aggressive assignment, but one the organization clearly thought he could handle. And they were right. Rooker endured his struggles in the early going, posting a brutal .213/.234/.320 line with 25 strikeouts and one walk. But, exactly as you'd hope, he started making gradual adjustments and getting things on track. Over his next 20 games he would hit .256/.300/.427. And now, after turning in a spectacular past week for the Lookouts (10 hits and 10 walks in 28 PA) he's at .342/.437/.698 over his past 19. Just as we hoped, Rooker is establishing himself as a potential late-season reinforcement for the Twins offense. If he keeps raking they way he has recently, his potent right-handed bat will begin to look very appealing around August – especially if Mauer has setbacks and/or Logan Morrison never finds a prolonged groove. Capable of making a more immediate impact, perhaps, is LaMonte Wade, who was promoted to Rochester over the weekend after hitting .298/.393/.444 over 46 games in Chattanooga. That those numbers very closely match his career line in the minors (.296/.402/.438) speaks to the consistency with which Wade has produced since joining the Twins as a ninth-round draft pick in 2015. He's a high-OBP, low-power corner outfielder in the mold of Robbie Grossman, which might not make him the sexiest prospect, but it's a nice piece to have around on the cheap. LOOKING AHEAD It's not over yet. If the Twins are able to put together a good week on the road, winning their series in Detroit and Cleveland, they'll be in much better position than they currently find themselves. I wish they'd done anything to make us confident that is going to happen. TUESDAY, 6/12: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. LHP Blaine Hardy WEDNESDAY, 6/13: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Jose Berrios v. LHP Matthew Boyd THURSDAY, 6/14: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Michael Fulmer FRIDAY, 6/15: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Corey Kluber SATURDAY, 6/16: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Fernando Romero v. RHP Carlos Carrasco SUNDAY, 6/17: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jake Odorizzi vs RHP Adam Plutko Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 56 + 57 | Escobar Hits Dramatic Home Run, Twins Split Doubleheader Game 58 | CHW 5, MIN 2: Time is Running Out Game 59: MIN 7, CHW 2: Berrios CG, Power from the Eds Fuel Twins Victory Game 60 | LAA 4, MIN 2: Bullpen, Bats Spoil Strong Start from Lynn Game 61 | LAA 2, MIN 1: Is This a Rerun? Game 62 | MIN 7, LAA 5: Jake Cave Sparks a Fire More on Twins Daily The MLB Draft took place last week, and Andrew Thares covered it beautifully here at Twins Daily. Check out his Twins 2018 Draft recap, and find links to his write-ups on the top two picks and more within. In Cody Christie's latest roundtable piece, many TD contributors weighed in with a diverse range of opinions on which player contracts the Twins should be focused on extending. I took a look at the some potentially available targets and called out three potential catcher upgrades on the trade market.
  4. Of course. But we always knew a strong and high-powered offense would be essential to any winning model in 2018. The pitchers are doing their part and too many hitters aren't.
  5. Thanks.For.The.Staccato.Analysis. The Twins had a 3.52 ERA in May and still went 13-15. Offense is the problem. The pitching staff is fine.
  6. I mean, there's getting hot, and then there is what Buxton did. He was literally one of the most impactful players in the game over the final eight weeks last year, and probably THE single biggest reason for MIN's run to the playoffs. Also, this isn't some fantasy held by Twins fans. He was the unanimous #1 prospect in the game for multiple years. He's been hailed as a rising superstar by pretty much everyone. His K-rate progressively dropped month by month last season as he started to really straighten things out. To claim this is some narrative manufactured out of thin air ignores the reality of the matter. And even with all the streakiness, he IS an established successful big-leaguer. 1.4 WAR in 2016 and 3.5 WAR last year. The Twins need him to be a competent hitter, not a world beater (though that'd be nice). Shouldn't really be that much to ask.
  7. Imagine, if you will, how different the current Twins lineup would look with a cleanup hitter slashing .306/.409/.607, and leading the way with 14 home runs. Those were Miguel Sano's numbers a year ago today. Wednesday night's 0-fer dropped him to .202/.273/.419 this season. He's striking out at an historic rate. He has only seven homers, despite his efforts to collect one on every swing. Now imagine – in addition to that premier slugger – a leadoff man with a .309/.358/.538 line to go along with 12 homers and 16 steals. A Gold Glove center fielder changing games every night. That was Byron Buxton over the final two months of 2017, when he finally appeared to figure it all out. In the first two months of 2018, he played only 28 games and hit .156/.183/.200 with zero home runs. You want to diagnose what's holding these lackluster Minnesota Twins down? It's more or less as simple as that. Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Imagine, if you will, how different the current Twins lineup would look with a cleanup hitter slashing .306/.409/.607, and leading the way with 14 home runs. Those were Miguel Sano's numbers a year ago today. Wednesday night's 0-fer dropped him to .202/.273/.419 this season. He's striking out at an historic rate. He has only seven homers, despite his efforts to collect one on every swing. Now imagine – in addition to that premier slugger – a leadoff man with a .309/.358/.538 line to go along with 12 homers and 16 steals. A Gold Glove center fielder changing games every night. That was Byron Buxton over the final two months of 2017, when he finally appeared to figure it all out. In the first two months of 2018, he played only 28 games and hit .156/.183/.200 with zero home runs. You want to diagnose what's holding these lackluster Minnesota Twins down? It's more or less as simple as that. The vision for a contending team this year was framed around Buxton and Sano as foundational forces. In fact, that gaze has been set ever since 2012, when the Twins were lucky enough to draft Buxton and add him to their system alongside Sano. From that moment, the duo was at the center of Minnesota's rebuilding blueprint. True, there are no sure things in baseball, but it's easy enough to spot generational talents when you see them. The year Buxton came aboard, Sano hit 28 home runs in A-ball as a teenager. Not longer after, Buck was the unanimous top prospect in baseball. These were standout studs that any organization in the same situation would build around. Their presence was vitalizing. As Twins fans endured a half-decade of dismal baseball, the ascending superstars served as shining beacons of hope and reassurance. We watched them dominate each level of the minors. We also watched them endure their occasional setbacks, most of them common enough. But up until this year, there's never been reason to doubt the duo's ability to sustainably power contending clubs, in the same way Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau did during the last winning cycle. Everything was in place. Coming into this season, Sano and Buxton were both 24 years old, established as successful major-league players. One was coming off an All Star appearance, the other an MVP-caliber second half. To be receiving very close to ZERO from a pair of players who were at the very heart of the design makes winning almost impossible. These are bad breaks that can't be absorbed. You've got to feel for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, who have seen so much of their well constructed plan fall into place around this defective nucleus. Vastly improved rotation and bullpen. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar playing out of their minds. A truly terrible division. Insert the versions of Buxton and Sano that we all expected – or even close, or even one or the other – into that equation, and the team is winning this division right now. Maybe handily. But when you go from top-gear Buxton to a mere shell, and then a minor-league journeyman in Ryan LaMarre? When you go from a herculean Sano in 2017 to the total mess we've winced at through nine weeks of 2018? We have seen where that leaves us. Six games below .500 on June 7th. Five games out of first place. A team frittering away every burst of momentum that its contributing parts can muster because the core is fizzling. And what's most demoralizing about this state of affairs? How utterly inexplicable and remediless it feels. Prospects bust all the time – even some that look like sure bets. You can't call Sano or Buxton busts. You just can't. They're still too young, for one, but more importantly they've both shown the ability to convincingly dominate in the majors. These two transcendent talents continue to be haunted by issues that defy explanation. Sure, there's a healthy dose of bad luck at play for both – enduring from their injury-hampered days in the minors – but it goes beyond that. To watch baseball players of this caliber wallow in perpetual regression... it leaves me speechless. I've got nothing. Equally devoid of answers, it would seem, is the considerable braintrust working diligently to get them on track. Diagnosing what's wrong with the Twins is easy: it's Buxton and Sano. That's just about the long and short of it. If only diagnosing and correcting whatever afflicts them were so simple. View full article
  8. The vision for a contending team this year was framed around Buxton and Sano as foundational forces. In fact, that gaze has been set ever since 2012, when the Twins were lucky enough to draft Buxton and add him to their system alongside Sano. From that moment, the duo was at the center of Minnesota's rebuilding blueprint. True, there are no sure things in baseball, but it's easy enough to spot generational talents when you see them. The year Buxton came aboard, Sano hit 28 home runs in A-ball as a teenager. Not longer after, Buck was the unanimous top prospect in baseball. These were standout studs that any organization in the same situation would build around. Their presence was vitalizing. As Twins fans endured a half-decade of dismal baseball, the ascending superstars served as shining beacons of hope and reassurance. We watched them dominate each level of the minors. We also watched them endure their occasional setbacks, most of them common enough. But up until this year, there's never been reason to doubt the duo's ability to sustainably power contending clubs, in the same way Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau did during the last winning cycle. Everything was in place. Coming into this season, Sano and Buxton were both 24 years old, established as successful major-league players. One was coming off an All Star appearance, the other an MVP-caliber second half. To be receiving very close to ZERO from a pair of players who were at the very heart of the design makes winning almost impossible. These are bad breaks that can't be absorbed. You've got to feel for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, who have seen so much of their well constructed plan fall into place around this defective nucleus. Vastly improved rotation and bullpen. Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar playing out of their minds. A truly terrible division. Insert the versions of Buxton and Sano that we all expected – or even close, or even one or the other – into that equation, and the team is winning this division right now. Maybe handily. But when you go from top-gear Buxton to a mere shell, and then a minor-league journeyman in Ryan LaMarre? When you go from a herculean Sano in 2017 to the total mess we've winced at through nine weeks of 2018? We have seen where that leaves us. Six games below .500 on June 7th. Five games out of first place. A team frittering away every burst of momentum that its contributing parts can muster because the core is fizzling. And what's most demoralizing about this state of affairs? How utterly inexplicable and remediless it feels. Prospects bust all the time – even some that look like sure bets. You can't call Sano or Buxton busts. You just can't. They're still too young, for one, but more importantly they've both shown the ability to convincingly dominate in the majors. These two transcendent talents continue to be haunted by issues that defy explanation. Sure, there's a healthy dose of bad luck at play for both – enduring from their injury-hampered days in the minors – but it goes beyond that. To watch baseball players of this caliber wallow in perpetual regression... it leaves me speechless. I've got nothing. Equally devoid of answers, it would seem, is the considerable braintrust working diligently to get them on track. Diagnosing what's wrong with the Twins is easy: it's Buxton and Sano. That's just about the long and short of it. If only diagnosing and correcting whatever afflicts them were so simple.
  9. Yeah, he has a strong arm and used to post great CS rates, but he also wasn't very good last year after returning from knee surgery. Part of me wonders if he's just not popping up and firing as quick as he did before the injury. I do like the idea of bringing him home, and righting the wrong from eight years ago. If only we could trade Matt Capps for him.
  10. Ramos would be a solid option as well. Good bat, and you might be right that he's more likely to move than Flowers. The thing that snags me there is how bad he's been at controlling the run game -- teams are 17-for-18 on steals against him this year.
  11. Now that we're into June, the MLB trade deadline is becoming visible on the horizon. As the Twins assess their needs, they find themselves in the rare position of feeling good about pitching depth. Reinforcements on that front will be arriving via the minors, or the disabled list. Even on the position-player side, Minnesota looks fairly well set, with one very notable exception. I believe they should be thinking big when it comes to acquiring a difference-maker at catcher. In fact, a blockbuster deal to bring in a long-term solution ought to be in play. Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez, USA Today (J.T. Realmuto) Now that we're into June, the MLB trade deadline is becoming visible on the horizon. As the Twins assess their needs, they find themselves in the rare position of feeling good about pitching depth. Reinforcements on that front will be arriving via the minors, or the disabled list. Even on the position-player side, Minnesota looks fairly well set, with one very notable exception. I believe they should be thinking big when it comes to acquiring a difference-maker at catcher. In fact, a blockbuster deal to bring in a long-term solution ought to be in play. Heading into the season, I called out the team's questionable catching depth as a primary concern. The Twins just didn't have much in the way of established commodities behind starter Jason Castro (who himself was basically an average player). Two months in, Castro is out for the year and Minnesota's iffy catching depth is being put to the test. Mitch Garver had a solid April but since May 1st he is hitting .188/.278/.234 with three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 72 PA. The lack of production would be easy enough to live with if his defense stood out, but Paul Molitor doesn't appear to feel that way; why else would light-hitting minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson (slashing .167/.196/.333 since his call-up) be getting so many reps? I'm not giving up on Garver but realistically, he was a fringe prospect who isn't showing much offensively here at age 27. There isn't a ton of upside there. All of the organization's best catching prospects remain several years away. And while Castro is under contract for 2019, he'll be returning as a 31-year-old coming off major knee surgery. The Twins could use a serious big-league addition at catcher, and not necessarily in the form of a 2018 rental. However, even that route would potentially yield a meaningful upgrade capable of making a pivotal impact. As I look at the current landscape around the majors, there are three opportunities I see for making a splash and reeling in some serious help behind the plate. Here they are, from the least dramatic to the most (and I've gotta admit, Option C is my favorite right now). Option A: Trade with the Atlanta Braves for Tyler Flowers The Braves, who find themselves leading the NL East here in June, aren't in position to be dumping valuable assets, but they could live without Flowers. The 32-year-old is having another good season, slashing .270/.403/.444 after posting an .823 OPS last year, but he's in a timeshare with fellow veteran backstop (and former Twin) Kurt Suzuki. Even with their surprisingly strong start, the Braves are still a young, future-minded team. Presumably they'd be open to shipping out Flowers, who's eligible for free agency after this season, in exchange for controllable talent with upside. Flowers has far more MLB experience than any of Minnesota's present fixtures, and is considered a strong pitch framer. Plus, his OBP skills would bolster the lower half of the Twins lineup. A Suzuki reunion would also be possible, I suppose, but I prefer Flowers as a fit for this team. Option B: Trade with the Oakland Athletics for Jonathan Lucroy When Oakland signed Lucroy to a one-year, $6.5 million deal around the same time in March that Minnesota added Lance Lynn, it was assumed he'd be used as trade bait around the deadline. And even though the A's find themselves above the .500 mark two months in, that's still the likely plan. They have no real shot at contending in a division with three clearly superior teams. The price to acquire Lucroy would probably be higher than a Flowers type, but not by a ton. At 31, Lucroy isn't the offensive force he once was — he has only one home run thus far — but he's a capable hitter and a steady vet with a .264 average and .338 OBP dating back to the start of last year. Option C: Trade with the Miami Marlins for J.T. Realmuto This is the "aim high" option and — in many ways — a very logical one. Unlike Flowers and Lucroy, Realmuto is still relatively young (he turned 27 in March) with multiple years of team control (he's arbitration eligible through 2020). He's also very good, with a .761 career OPS and a .301/.359/.510 line this year. The Marlins were shopping Realmuto during the offseason, but he was one of the few attractive assets they ended up keeping (much to his chagrin). The Nationals are among the clubs that made a run at him, but ultimately they couldn't meet Miami's asking price. This tells us Minnesota will have to pony up if they want to make something happen, especially since Realmuto's having an excellent season. But from my view, names like Stephen Gonsalves and Nick Gordon should be on the table. Realmuto is just that kind of commodity, capable of making a franchise-altering impact as the Twins (hopefully) enter their contention window. What do you think? Do you have a preference among these options? Perhaps another trade scenario strikes your fancy? Or would you be satisfied with staying the course, letting Garver stay in the driver's seat while hoping someone like newly signed Triple-A farmhand Cameron Rupp can step in if needed? Please share your thoughts in the comments if you've got 'em. View full article
  12. Heading into the season, I called out the team's questionable catching depth as a primary concern. The Twins just didn't have much in the way of established commodities behind starter Jason Castro (who himself was basically an average player). Two months in, Castro is out for the year and Minnesota's iffy catching depth is being put to the test. Mitch Garver had a solid April but since May 1st he is hitting .188/.278/.234 with three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 72 PA. The lack of production would be easy enough to live with if his defense stood out, but Paul Molitor doesn't appear to feel that way; why else would light-hitting minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson (slashing .167/.196/.333 since his call-up) be getting so many reps? I'm not giving up on Garver but realistically, he was a fringe prospect who isn't showing much offensively here at age 27. There isn't a ton of upside there. All of the organization's best catching prospects remain several years away. And while Castro is under contract for 2019, he'll be returning as a 31-year-old coming off major knee surgery. The Twins could use a serious big-league addition at catcher, and not necessarily in the form of a 2018 rental. However, even that route would potentially yield a meaningful upgrade capable of making a pivotal impact. As I look at the current landscape around the majors, there are three opportunities I see for making a splash and reeling in some serious help behind the plate. Here they are, from the least dramatic to the most (and I've gotta admit, Option C is my favorite right now). Option A: Trade with the Atlanta Braves for Tyler Flowers The Braves, who find themselves leading the NL East here in June, aren't in position to be dumping valuable assets, but they could live without Flowers. The 32-year-old is having another good season, slashing .270/.403/.444 after posting an .823 OPS last year, but he's in a timeshare with fellow veteran backstop (and former Twin) Kurt Suzuki. Even with their surprisingly strong start, the Braves are still a young, future-minded team. Presumably they'd be open to shipping out Flowers, who's eligible for free agency after this season, in exchange for controllable talent with upside. Flowers has far more MLB experience than any of Minnesota's present fixtures, and is considered a strong pitch framer. Plus, his OBP skills would bolster the lower half of the Twins lineup. A Suzuki reunion would also be possible, I suppose, but I prefer Flowers as a fit for this team. Option B: Trade with the Oakland Athletics for Jonathan Lucroy When Oakland signed Lucroy to a one-year, $6.5 million deal around the same time in March that Minnesota added Lance Lynn, it was assumed he'd be used as trade bait around the deadline. And even though the A's find themselves above the .500 mark two months in, that's still the likely plan. They have no real shot at contending in a division with three clearly superior teams. The price to acquire Lucroy would probably be higher than a Flowers type, but not by a ton. At 31, Lucroy isn't the offensive force he once was — he has only one home run thus far — but he's a capable hitter and a steady vet with a .264 average and .338 OBP dating back to the start of last year. Option C: Trade with the Miami Marlins for J.T. Realmuto This is the "aim high" option and — in many ways — a very logical one. Unlike Flowers and Lucroy, Realmuto is still relatively young (he turned 27 in March) with multiple years of team control (he's arbitration eligible through 2020). He's also very good, with a .761 career OPS and a .301/.359/.510 line this year. The Marlins were shopping Realmuto during the offseason, but he was one of the few attractive assets they ended up keeping (much to his chagrin). The Nationals are among the clubs that made a run at him, but ultimately they couldn't meet Miami's asking price. This tells us Minnesota will have to pony up if they want to make something happen, especially since Realmuto's having an excellent season. But from my view, names like Stephen Gonsalves and Nick Gordon should be on the table. Realmuto is just that kind of commodity, capable of making a franchise-altering impact as the Twins (hopefully) enter their contention window. What do you think? Do you have a preference among these options? Perhaps another trade scenario strikes your fancy? Or would you be satisfied with staying the course, letting Garver stay in the driver's seat while hoping someone like newly signed Triple-A farmhand Cameron Rupp can step in if needed? Please share your thoughts in the comments if you've got 'em.
  13. Yeah, there are also rules in the CBA about how many games you can schedule in a row without an off day. Not 100% sure about the specifics.
  14. I can't blame you for being skeptical, but according to StatCast, Grossman's sprint speed is 27.8 ft/sec compared to Adrianza at 26.7, and Grossman has in fact registered higher in all past seasons. For the player profile he fulfills, Adrianza is stunningly slow. Grossman's speed is also a little underrated, I think.
  15. RUNS!!! They've been an all-too-precious commodity for the Twins this year, but were plentiful last week as Minnesota showed the kind of fierceness and resilience that had been missing for much of the first two months. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today RUNS!!! They've been an all-too-precious commodity for the Twins this year, but were plentiful last week as Minnesota showed the kind of fierceness and resilience that had been missing for much of the first two months. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/28 through Sun, 6/3 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 25-30) Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: -11) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS The offense finally woke up. Minnesota had scored more than six runs in a game only seven times all season, and only twice in the last calendar month, before doing so six times in seven games this past week. Unfortunately, in the one contest where the bats came up empty, they wasted a brilliant effort from Kyle Gibson and the bullpen. And on two occasions the Twins scored eight runs and lost, due to previously reliable starters unraveling and creating early deficits that couldn't be surmounted. It's been that kind of year. Still, this was a winning week that ended on a dazzling high note. On Friday morning the Twins were reeling, 6.5 games out of first place in the wake of three straight gut-wrenching losses. By Sunday evening, they were back within 3.5 games, looking reinvigorated as they celebrated a huge walk-off win. Eddie Rosario was rightfully at the center of that celebrating, as his third home run of the day (and fourth of the weekend) clinched the series victory. Rosario is in beast mode again, jumping on whatever you've got, inside or outside the zone, and driving it. His confidence level right now is off the charts. https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1003405286013579265 But there was something notably different and deeply encouraging about his week, beyond the four homers and 10 RBIs. During Rosario's last red-hot stretch, back in early May, I offered the following caution: "Eventually he'll cool off and stop obliterating every pitch he fancies. At that point we'll find out if Rosario can re-incorporate some of the disciplinary improvements we saw in the latter portion of 2017. Swinging at more than 40% of pitches outside the zone just won't cut it long-term." The ultra-aggressive approach continued for the next two weeks, and he went without a home run. But over this past week, while going 13-for-30, he also drew six walks (four unintentional). He had drawn only five unintentional walks in 48 games heading in. When he adds a modicum of selectiveness to his aggressive and explosive approach at the plate, Rosario is an unstoppable force with staying power. Hopefully this week was only a sign of things to come for Minnesota's probable All Star rep. Rosie wasn't the only source of power. Miguel Sano shook off his rust and turned back into a run-producing difference-maker at the heart of the order, driving in 10 runs in six games with two home runs and two doubles. It makes a big difference when he's a legit threat, and right now he's showing off his strength by mashing mistakes. There's still no sign that Sano has shaken his problematic discipline issues at the plate. We saw him strike out 12 times with one walk in 29 plate appearances last week, frequently swinging at breaking balls way outside the zone. Until that changes, he'll continue to be a feast-or-famine type yielding far too much of the latter. It's a strange state of affairs when I trust Rosario's strike zone judgement more than Sano's but here we are. At least Miggy is back and hitting baseballs incredibly hard. Speaking of hard hits, Eduardo Escobar also had plenty in a week that saw his bat reheat following a lengthy slump. Heading into play on Monday, Escobar had batted just .200 with three extra-base hits (all doubles) and three RBIs in his previous 15 games. His skid worsened in Kansas City as he went 0-for-9 on Monday and Tuesday, but Esco finished that series with a two-hit game and then opened a power tear at Target Field, belting three homers and driving in six runs against Cleveland. This is the Twins offense we were hoping to see from the start: highly dangerous, and capable of ruining a good opposing starter's day even when he's on his game (as they did to Trevor Bauer on Saturday). LOWLIGHTS We've seen a lot of strong performances from the rotation this year, but the trend has been that when things go awry, they really run off the rails. We saw it when Jose Berrios' early-season stretch of dominance gave way to a string of total duds. We've seen plenty of volatility from Lance Lynn. I guess it shouldn't be surprising that the exemplary runs of Fernando Romero and Jake Odorizzi met their ends in flagrant fashion. On Wednesday, Romero gave up almost twice as many earned runs (8) in 1 2/3 innings as he had over 28 2/3 innings in his first five starts (5). It was utterly baffling to see a pitcher with a .194 BAA allow nine hits to 15 batters against one of the league's weakest offenses. His ERA shot from 1.88 to 4.15. The next day, Odorizzi surrendered seven earned runs, one fewer than he'd allowed total in his first five starts of May. The right-hander had become one of Minnesota's steadiest starters, completing 5+ IP with three or fewer earned runs in six straight turns. However, his clunker was a little less surprising than Romero's, given his ongoing struggles keeping the ball in the yard; he has now coughed up 14 homers in 12 starts. If the Twins are giving any consideration to reinforcements for the rotation, those might not be as close as they'd hoped. Ervin Santana is revisiting his finger surgeon after experiencing continued discomfort while battling command and velocity issues in rehab. There's no timetable for his return but it's reasonable to expect he'll be out until July at least. Meanwhile, Trevor May's rehab stint has taken a discouraging turn. He had a rocky start last Sunday, allowing six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings, and made his next appearance in relief on Saturday. May allowed only one hit while cleanly handling the seventh through ninth, picking up a three-inning save, but he induced just two swinging strikes on 37 pitches. The most troubling setbacks, however, were on the position-player side. Joe Mauer appeared to be on the verge of coming off the disabled list late in the week before concussion symptoms started creeping in again as he revved up – a grim development. Luckily, Mauer reported feeling better in the ensuing days, but this is going to be a touch-and-go situation for a while. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton and the Twins finally came to terms with the fact that having him play through a broken toe was doing nobody any good. The center fielder was placed on the disabled list and will now presumably be given several weeks to let it heal. TRENDING STORYLINE Even though they've finally started scoring some runs, the Twins will take whatever offensive help they can get as they try to string together wins and battle back into the division race. To that end, there are two situations in particular worth keeping an eye on. At the start of last week, the Twins claimed Taylor Motter off waivers from Seattle. He's a versatile defender who can play shortstop, and he has occasionally shown some hitting ability. That ought to make Ehire Adrianza nervous. Sure enough, Adrianza had his best week at the plate all season, with a pair of multi-hit games and his first home run. (Although he AGAIN got thrown out on the bases Sunday after mysteriously pinch-running for Robbie Grossman, who is actually faster than him.) While Motter looms in Rochester, another potential plug returned to action last week in Chattanooga. LaMonte Wade had gone on the disabled list in mid-May after colliding with an outfield wall, but was activated by the Lookouts on Tuesday. He has become the on-base king in the Twins system, with a .403 career OBP in the minors and an amazingly good eye at the plate. Wade made a very good impression at spring training and is now slashing .300/.392/.460 in Double-A. With Buxton looking to be sidelined for a while, and Ryan LaMarre's chops as a capable MLB regular in question, Wade could be very useful to the club. His patience is all the more appealing if Mauer will be facing an extended absence. This lineup has really been missing the first baseman's proclivity for getting aboard. DOWN ON THE FARM If there was one quibble to be had with the extremely impressive work being done by an 18-year-old Royce Lewis in Cedar Rapids here in the first half, it was a lack of power. He batted .299 with 13 steals in his first 35 games, but 34 of his 41 hits were singles, resulting in a .365 slugging percentage. Well, Lewis busted out with a two-homer game last Sunday, and followed up with five doubles in five games over the past week. He now has as many extra-base hits in his past seven games (7) as he did in his first 35. It always seemed like a matter of when, not if, Lewis would add strength and start driving the ball more. Now, with his 19th birthday just days away, we're already seeing it to some extent. One scout offered some eye-poppingly high praise for the top prospect, as relayed by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports: https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1003043423094390784 On another note, you've gotta feel a little bit for Alan Busenitz. The reliever performed very well during his time with the Twins last season, but was an odd man out with the team signing three free agent relievers in the offseason. He received a brief chance with Minnesota in April, but has since been stuck in Rochester, where he's been unbelievably good. In five weeks since returning to the minors, Busenitz hasn't allowed a run, or even an extra-base hit. He has a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio in 16 1/3 innings. In seven of his 10 appearances during that span he has recorded more than three outs. Based on merit, Busenitz should absolutely be in the majors, but right now he's a victim of circumstance. Soon enough his chance will come, and Twins fans should feel good about having such a weapon waiting on deck. LOOKING AHEAD These are the kinds of opportunities that Minnesota needs to capitalize on. The cellar-dwelling White Sox are coming to town for a four-game series, which kicks off with a double-header on Tuesday. You'd love to see the Twins take all four of those games and build some momentum heading into a tougher weekend series against the Angels. TUESDAY, 6/5 (1): WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Fernando Romero TUESDAY, 6/5 (2): WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giloito v. RHP Zack Littell WEDNESDAY, 6/6: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Hector Santiago v. RHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 6/7: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP James Shields v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 6/8: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Jaime Barria v. RHP Lance Lynn SATURDAY, 6/9: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Garrett Richards v. RHP Kyle Gibson SUNDAY, 6/10: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Skaggs v. RHP Fernando Romero Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 49 | MIN 8, KC 5: Bats Break Out Game 50 | KC 2, MIN 1: Every Game is the Same Game Game 51 | KC 11, MIN 8: We Can’t Have Nice Things Game 52 | CLE 9, MIN 8: Twins Fight Back, Fall Short Game 53 | MIN 7, CLE 4: Escobar é o Fogo Game 54 | MIN 7, CLE 1: Twins Battle Their Way to Another Victory Game 55 | MIN 7, CLE 5: EDDIE! EDDIE! EDDIE! More on Twins Daily The MLB Draft gets underway on Monday. Last week Andrew Thares profiled his top 10 draft prospects. You can find links to the rest of his top 50 within. I recommend catching up with his lists; it's highly likely the Twins first-rounder is in there somewhere. On that note, Seth Stohs listed draft candidates with Minnesota connections. Which Twins prospects are outclassing their current levels in the minors? Jonathon Zenk called out five who should be promoted. SD Buhr chatted hitting with former Twin (and current Cedar Rapids coach) Brian Dinkelman. View full article
  16. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/28 through Sun, 6/3 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 25-30) Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: -11) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) HIGHLIGHTS The offense finally woke up. Minnesota had scored more than six runs in a game only seven times all season, and only twice in the last calendar month, before doing so six times in seven games this past week. Unfortunately, in the one contest where the bats came up empty, they wasted a brilliant effort from Kyle Gibson and the bullpen. And on two occasions the Twins scored eight runs and lost, due to previously reliable starters unraveling and creating early deficits that couldn't be surmounted. It's been that kind of year. Still, this was a winning week that ended on a dazzling high note. On Friday morning the Twins were reeling, 6.5 games out of first place in the wake of three straight gut-wrenching losses. By Sunday evening, they were back within 3.5 games, looking reinvigorated as they celebrated a huge walk-off win. Eddie Rosario was rightfully at the center of that celebrating, as his third home run of the day (and fourth of the weekend) clinched the series victory. Rosario is in beast mode again, jumping on whatever you've got, inside or outside the zone, and driving it. His confidence level right now is off the charts. https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1003405286013579265 But there was something notably different and deeply encouraging about his week, beyond the four homers and 10 RBIs. During Rosario's last red-hot stretch, back in early May, I offered the following caution: "Eventually he'll cool off and stop obliterating every pitch he fancies. At that point we'll find out if Rosario can re-incorporate some of the disciplinary improvements we saw in the latter portion of 2017. Swinging at more than 40% of pitches outside the zone just won't cut it long-term." The ultra-aggressive approach continued for the next two weeks, and he went without a home run. But over this past week, while going 13-for-30, he also drew six walks (four unintentional). He had drawn only five unintentional walks in 48 games heading in. When he adds a modicum of selectiveness to his aggressive and explosive approach at the plate, Rosario is an unstoppable force with staying power. Hopefully this week was only a sign of things to come for Minnesota's probable All Star rep. Rosie wasn't the only source of power. Miguel Sano shook off his rust and turned back into a run-producing difference-maker at the heart of the order, driving in 10 runs in six games with two home runs and two doubles. It makes a big difference when he's a legit threat, and right now he's showing off his strength by mashing mistakes. There's still no sign that Sano has shaken his problematic discipline issues at the plate. We saw him strike out 12 times with one walk in 29 plate appearances last week, frequently swinging at breaking balls way outside the zone. Until that changes, he'll continue to be a feast-or-famine type yielding far too much of the latter. It's a strange state of affairs when I trust Rosario's strike zone judgement more than Sano's but here we are. At least Miggy is back and hitting baseballs incredibly hard. Speaking of hard hits, Eduardo Escobar also had plenty in a week that saw his bat reheat following a lengthy slump. Heading into play on Monday, Escobar had batted just .200 with three extra-base hits (all doubles) and three RBIs in his previous 15 games. His skid worsened in Kansas City as he went 0-for-9 on Monday and Tuesday, but Esco finished that series with a two-hit game and then opened a power tear at Target Field, belting three homers and driving in six runs against Cleveland. This is the Twins offense we were hoping to see from the start: highly dangerous, and capable of ruining a good opposing starter's day even when he's on his game (as they did to Trevor Bauer on Saturday). LOWLIGHTS We've seen a lot of strong performances from the rotation this year, but the trend has been that when things go awry, they really run off the rails. We saw it when Jose Berrios' early-season stretch of dominance gave way to a string of total duds. We've seen plenty of volatility from Lance Lynn. I guess it shouldn't be surprising that the exemplary runs of Fernando Romero and Jake Odorizzi met their ends in flagrant fashion. On Wednesday, Romero gave up almost twice as many earned runs (8) in 1 2/3 innings as he had over 28 2/3 innings in his first five starts (5). It was utterly baffling to see a pitcher with a .194 BAA allow nine hits to 15 batters against one of the league's weakest offenses. His ERA shot from 1.88 to 4.15. The next day, Odorizzi surrendered seven earned runs, one fewer than he'd allowed total in his first five starts of May. The right-hander had become one of Minnesota's steadiest starters, completing 5+ IP with three or fewer earned runs in six straight turns. However, his clunker was a little less surprising than Romero's, given his ongoing struggles keeping the ball in the yard; he has now coughed up 14 homers in 12 starts. If the Twins are giving any consideration to reinforcements for the rotation, those might not be as close as they'd hoped. Ervin Santana is revisiting his finger surgeon after experiencing continued discomfort while battling command and velocity issues in rehab. There's no timetable for his return but it's reasonable to expect he'll be out until July at least. Meanwhile, Trevor May's rehab stint has taken a discouraging turn. He had a rocky start last Sunday, allowing six earned runs in 2 2/3 innings, and made his next appearance in relief on Saturday. May allowed only one hit while cleanly handling the seventh through ninth, picking up a three-inning save, but he induced just two swinging strikes on 37 pitches. The most troubling setbacks, however, were on the position-player side. Joe Mauer appeared to be on the verge of coming off the disabled list late in the week before concussion symptoms started creeping in again as he revved up – a grim development. Luckily, Mauer reported feeling better in the ensuing days, but this is going to be a touch-and-go situation for a while. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton and the Twins finally came to terms with the fact that having him play through a broken toe was doing nobody any good. The center fielder was placed on the disabled list and will now presumably be given several weeks to let it heal. TRENDING STORYLINE Even though they've finally started scoring some runs, the Twins will take whatever offensive help they can get as they try to string together wins and battle back into the division race. To that end, there are two situations in particular worth keeping an eye on. At the start of last week, the Twins claimed Taylor Motter off waivers from Seattle. He's a versatile defender who can play shortstop, and he has occasionally shown some hitting ability. That ought to make Ehire Adrianza nervous. Sure enough, Adrianza had his best week at the plate all season, with a pair of multi-hit games and his first home run. (Although he AGAIN got thrown out on the bases Sunday after mysteriously pinch-running for Robbie Grossman, who is actually faster than him.) While Motter looms in Rochester, another potential plug returned to action last week in Chattanooga. LaMonte Wade had gone on the disabled list in mid-May after colliding with an outfield wall, but was activated by the Lookouts on Tuesday. He has become the on-base king in the Twins system, with a .403 career OBP in the minors and an amazingly good eye at the plate. Wade made a very good impression at spring training and is now slashing .300/.392/.460 in Double-A. With Buxton looking to be sidelined for a while, and Ryan LaMarre's chops as a capable MLB regular in question, Wade could be very useful to the club. His patience is all the more appealing if Mauer will be facing an extended absence. This lineup has really been missing the first baseman's proclivity for getting aboard. DOWN ON THE FARM If there was one quibble to be had with the extremely impressive work being done by an 18-year-old Royce Lewis in Cedar Rapids here in the first half, it was a lack of power. He batted .299 with 13 steals in his first 35 games, but 34 of his 41 hits were singles, resulting in a .365 slugging percentage. Well, Lewis busted out with a two-homer game last Sunday, and followed up with five doubles in five games over the past week. He now has as many extra-base hits in his past seven games (7) as he did in his first 35. It always seemed like a matter of when, not if, Lewis would add strength and start driving the ball more. Now, with his 19th birthday just days away, we're already seeing it to some extent. One scout offered some eye-poppingly high praise for the top prospect, as relayed by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports: https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1003043423094390784 On another note, you've gotta feel a little bit for Alan Busenitz. The reliever performed very well during his time with the Twins last season, but was an odd man out with the team signing three free agent relievers in the offseason. He received a brief chance with Minnesota in April, but has since been stuck in Rochester, where he's been unbelievably good. In five weeks since returning to the minors, Busenitz hasn't allowed a run, or even an extra-base hit. He has a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio in 16 1/3 innings. In seven of his 10 appearances during that span he has recorded more than three outs. Based on merit, Busenitz should absolutely be in the majors, but right now he's a victim of circumstance. Soon enough his chance will come, and Twins fans should feel good about having such a weapon waiting on deck. LOOKING AHEAD These are the kinds of opportunities that Minnesota needs to capitalize on. The cellar-dwelling White Sox are coming to town for a four-game series, which kicks off with a double-header on Tuesday. You'd love to see the Twins take all four of those games and build some momentum heading into a tougher weekend series against the Angels. TUESDAY, 6/5 (1): WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Reynaldo Lopez v. RHP Fernando Romero TUESDAY, 6/5 (2): WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giloito v. RHP Zack Littell WEDNESDAY, 6/6: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Hector Santiago v. RHP Jake Odorizzi THURSDAY, 6/7: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP James Shields v. RHP Jose Berrios FRIDAY, 6/8: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Jaime Barria v. RHP Lance Lynn SATURDAY, 6/9: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Garrett Richards v. RHP Kyle Gibson SUNDAY, 6/10: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Tyler Skaggs v. RHP Fernando Romero Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 49 | MIN 8, KC 5: Bats Break Out Game 50 | KC 2, MIN 1: Every Game is the Same Game Game 51 | KC 11, MIN 8: We Can’t Have Nice Things Game 52 | CLE 9, MIN 8: Twins Fight Back, Fall Short Game 53 | MIN 7, CLE 4: Escobar é o Fogo Game 54 | MIN 7, CLE 1: Twins Battle Their Way to Another Victory Game 55 | MIN 7, CLE 5: EDDIE! EDDIE! EDDIE! More on Twins Daily The MLB Draft gets underway on Monday. Last week Andrew Thares profiled his top 10 draft prospects. You can find links to the rest of his top 50 within. I recommend catching up with his lists; it's highly likely the Twins first-rounder is in there somewhere. On that note, Seth Stohs listed draft candidates with Minnesota connections. Which Twins prospects are outclassing their current levels in the minors? Jonathon Zenk called out five who should be promoted. SD Buhr chatted hitting with former Twin (and current Cedar Rapids coach) Brian Dinkelman.
  17. It's easy to focus on the struggles of the Twins offense. Er, correction: it's extremely difficult not to focus on the struggles of the Twins offense. The club's underperforming bats have become a nightly source of frustration. But let's take a moment here to appreciate how stunningly good the Minnesota pitchers have been. By no means did I expect to find myself making such a statement at this point in the season. Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson, USA Today It's easy to focus on the struggles of the Twins offense. Er, correction: it's extremely difficult not to focus on the struggles of the Twins offense. The club's underperforming bats have become a nightly source of frustration. But let's take a moment here to appreciate how stunningly good the Minnesota pitchers have been. By no means did I expect to find myself making such a statement at this point in the season. It's all relative, of course. The Twins rank 8th out of 15 American League clubs with a 4.21 ERA that is exactly average. They rank ninth in WHIP and 10th in FIP. So they haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire in that context. But this is also a team that, two years ago, ranked dead last in ERA and WHIP while allowing 889 runs, second-most for a Twins club ever. This year they are on pace to allow 719, which would be about 60 fewer than last year when they reached the postseason. And it goes beyond the numbers. Just ask yourself: when was the last time you had faith in almost every single member of a Twins pitching staff? In the rotation, Jose Berrios has been tremendous outside of a hiccup in late April/early May that appears to be behind him. He ranks 12th in the AL in innings pitched, which would've seemed unthinkable not so long ago thanks to his tendency to rack up high pitch counts. Newfound efficiency and control have enabled the right-hander, who turned 24 on Sunday, to pitch into the eighth inning four times in 11 starts, and into the seventh in two others. He has issued two or fewer walks in all but one of his turns. Berrios' 3.67 ERA remains in the good-not-great realm, thanks to that string of clunkers, but his recent performance feels more reflective of what we can expect going forward. And then there is the amazing Fernando Romero, who doesn't turn 24 until December. Hailed as a potential ace as he came up through the minors, Romero has somehow been better than advertised during his initial run in the big leagues. The righty has been absurdly dominant through five starts, with a 1.88 ERA that ranks third among all American League pitchers with 20+ IP. He won't maintain a sub-2 ERA forever, of course, but Romero has a formula that makes sustained ace-level performance feasible. Namely, he's getting grounders at a 50%+ rate while also averaging more than a strikeout per inning – one of five AL starters to hit both marks. Last year, Luis Severino was the league's only qualified SP to finish above those thresholds; he posted a 2.98 ERA for the Yankees. The Twins have two starters pitching at an elite level, which is obviously encouraging, but what's really exciting is that it's a duo of young, controllable former top prospects with stuff and pedigree to match. This isn't Phil Hughes coming out of nowhere after years of mediocrity with the Yankees. This isn't Ervin Santana mustering the best season of his career at age 34. The emergence of Berrios and Romero as a one-two punch atop the rotation is legitimately the best development to come along for this unit in more than a decade. We haven't seen a Minnesota starting corps this strong at the top since Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano were (so briefly) paired together at their peaks. Injuries and setbacks are always on the table, as we know too well (the previous example serving as case-in-point), but let's enjoy this for what it is: the foundation for an actual championship-caliber rotation. Almost equally encouraging is what's happened around Berrios and Romero. Jake Odorizzi has been brilliant, with a 3.34 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 11 starts. One can easily make the case that good fortune has aided his success – namely an 88 percent strand rate, and eight of 12 homers against him coming with bases empty. But Odorizzi's proneness to home runs is well known to everyone, including himself. He works around it. And I'm not convinced it's entirely luck that has led to hitters slashing .156/.221/.313 against him with men on. He's been buckling down. Even if (when) he regresses a bit, Odorizzi can still be a solid mid-rotation piece and a fantastic return for Jermaine Palacios, who has a .473 OPS with Tampa's Double-A affiliate. Best of all, the Twins have optional control over Odorizzi at a reasonable cost in 2019, putting them in a great position of flexibility. The same is true for Kyle Gibson, who has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining. Gibson has finally swapped in his profile as a contact-heavy ground ball pitcher for that of a bat-missing filth-flinger, and this one suits him much better. His GB rate has dropped into the average range at 46.7%, but his swinging strike rate has skyrocketed to 11.9%, best among Twins starters and among the league's top 25. Gibson's transformation has been keyed by a heater registering a career-high 92.5 MPH (thanks in part to his increased reliance on the harder four-seamer) and breaking balls that are inducing a mind-boggling 57% miss rate, highest in the majors. Again, this isn't the mirage-like burst of success we've seen so often from Twins pitchers (including Gibby) in the recent past. This is a hurler on top of his game shoving some of the best stuff of anyone in the game. He has shown the ability to flat-out dominate when his command is there. And right now he's Minnesota's fourth starter. Lastly, we come to Lance Lynn. He's one of only two pitchers on the Twins roster with an ERA above 4.02, and it is of course well above, at 6.34. I won't try to convince you he hasn't been bad – I've been as maddened as anyone by his inexplicable inability to throw it over the plate – but cautious optimism is warranted. You've got the long track record of success. You've got the 3.98 ERA in four May starts, along with an improved strike rate (up to 63% from 56% in May) and decreased homer rate (only one allowed this month after five in April). There's also this: remember when I mentioned earlier that Romero is one of five AL starters with a grounder rate over 50% and a K/9 over 9? Lynn is one of the others. Among that group – which also includes Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Garrett Richards – he's the only one that hasn't been very good. The main reason for this is obvious, and entirely his own doing: he hasn't thrown enough strikes. But there are clear signs of improvement in this regard, and the peripherals show that when Lynn manages to throw the ball where he wants, it gets the result he wants. Five starters locked in with a K/9 of 8.8 or higher. Incredible. Two years ago, the Twins had zero starting pitchers with a K/9 higher than 7.7. Even if things go south again with Lynn, or any of the other four members of the rotation, Minnesota is well equipped for the occasion. Stephen Gonsalves is tearing it up in Rochester with a 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 rate. His success is the only reason we're not talking more about Zack Littell, who has also been phenomenal since his Triple-A promotion (2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9). Finally, Trevor May and Ervin Santana are on the comeback trail. There's enough quality depth in play for the Twins rotation that Santana's concerning velocity reports can easily be taken in stride. Out in the bullpen, there is plenty more to like. Fernando Rodney shook off his early troubles and rounded into form beautifully. He's been as reliable as any closer in the game over the past month, converting eight consecutive saves while allowing zero runs on only two hits. Yes, to repeat: Rodney has surrendered two hits – both singles – in a calendar month. Even though his velocity is down a smidge from last year, it's absolutely remarkable to see a 41-year-old out there repeatedly hitting 95 on the gun. He's bringing the kind of overpowering stuff you wanna see in the ninth. Rodney currently looks like a slam-dunk addition for the front office. So too does Addison Reed, who is nicely fulfilling his envisioned role as Twins bullpen ace. Reed ranks second among Minnesota relievers in appearances, and they've almost all come in high-leverage spots. He's responded by delivering consistently, helping him accrue a 0.56 WPA, which leads the bullpen. Reed is on pace to post the highest mark in that category since Glen Perkins in his career year, 2013. As good as Reed's been, the star of this unit has been Ryan Pressly, who is finally pulling it all together at age 29. Last year, he had an odd tendency to get knocked around despite dazzling stuff, premium velocity, and good control. This year, the stuff has gotten even better and hitters just can't handle it. Pressly's swinging strike rate has jumped from 12.2% to 16.8%, which ranks 11th out of 180 qualified MLB relievers. He's been especially lethal in May, where that figure has jumped to 19%. He has given up one home run thus far, after giving up 10 in 2017. The strikeout parade continues with Zach Duke, who has rebounded spectacularly from his own early skid. Duke yielded five earned runs in his first four appearances, saddling him with a 16.88 ERA, but he's been whittling it down ever since. The lefty has been charged with just two earned runs in 19 appearances since then (1.26 ERA) while striking out 16. He's walked only two of 36 batters faced in May. Duke has been lights-out against left-handed hitters (.569 OPS) and good enough against righties so as not to force strict platoon usage. When you combine his output with that of Rodney and Reed, it can hardly be overstated what a profound positive impact the front office's offseason moves have had on the bullpen. One of their quieter additions is also paying dividends. The Twins signed Matt Magill to a minor-league deal in January, without much fanfare. He was the type of 28-year-old journeyman with an unimpressive track record who usually serves as organizational filler. Magill was mediocre with San Diego's Triple-A affiliate last year while usually throwing as a starter, and didn't make it to the majors all season. But Minnesota was intrigued by Magill's past stints in the bullpen, and the velocity increases it triggered. So they've tried him there again with exceptional results. Magill was sent down in spring training despite looking very good with an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio in five innings. At Triple-A, he kept it going with a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio over 8 2/3 frames to earn a call-up in late April. He has since looked the part of a major-league reliever, painting corners with 95 MPH fastballs while posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 11 appearances. He hasn't pitched in many big spots, and could be replaced if May comes off the DL this week, but neither is through any fault of his own. Magill looks like a heck of a find. Through all this, we haven't even mentioned the two key mainstays of last year's bullpen, who are also both pitching well. Taylor Rogers' inflated 5.59 ERA hides a 2.18 FIP. He had some ugly outings in late April, at the height of the team's slump, but has a 2.02 ERA in May and now looks like himself. That's also the case for Trevor Hildenberger, who remains perhaps the most important long-term cog in this pen. He has a 2.31 ERA in May, where he's holding opponents to a .186 average and inducing whiffs at an 18% rate. So there you have it. With about one-third of the season in the books, nearly every member of the Minnesota Twins pitching staff is looking like a positive asset. This is a huge credit to the front office, the coaching staff, and so many of these players who have turned corners personally. For the pitchers to be cruising along like this while a lackluster offense drags the team down was not a scenario any of us envisioned, but here we are. The upshot is that if these guys can keep it up as they have, the Twins have potential to really become a complete team if and when the bats awaken. View full article
  18. It's all relative, of course. The Twins rank 8th out of 15 American League clubs with a 4.21 ERA that is exactly average. They rank ninth in WHIP and 10th in FIP. So they haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire in that context. But this is also a team that, two years ago, ranked dead last in ERA and WHIP while allowing 889 runs, second-most for a Twins club ever. This year they are on pace to allow 719, which would be about 60 fewer than last year when they reached the postseason. And it goes beyond the numbers. Just ask yourself: when was the last time you had faith in almost every single member of a Twins pitching staff? In the rotation, Jose Berrios has been tremendous outside of a hiccup in late April/early May that appears to be behind him. He ranks 12th in the AL in innings pitched, which would've seemed unthinkable not so long ago thanks to his tendency to rack up high pitch counts. Newfound efficiency and control have enabled the right-hander, who turned 24 on Sunday, to pitch into the eighth inning four times in 11 starts, and into the seventh in two others. He has issued two or fewer walks in all but one of his turns. Berrios' 3.67 ERA remains in the good-not-great realm, thanks to that string of clunkers, but his recent performance feels more reflective of what we can expect going forward. And then there is the amazing Fernando Romero, who doesn't turn 24 until December. Hailed as a potential ace as he came up through the minors, Romero has somehow been better than advertised during his initial run in the big leagues. The righty has been absurdly dominant through five starts, with a 1.88 ERA that ranks third among all American League pitchers with 20+ IP. He won't maintain a sub-2 ERA forever, of course, but Romero has a formula that makes sustained ace-level performance feasible. Namely, he's getting grounders at a 50%+ rate while also averaging more than a strikeout per inning – one of five AL starters to hit both marks. Last year, Luis Severino was the league's only qualified SP to finish above those thresholds; he posted a 2.98 ERA for the Yankees. The Twins have two starters pitching at an elite level, which is obviously encouraging, but what's really exciting is that it's a duo of young, controllable former top prospects with stuff and pedigree to match. This isn't Phil Hughes coming out of nowhere after years of mediocrity with the Yankees. This isn't Ervin Santana mustering the best season of his career at age 34. The emergence of Berrios and Romero as a one-two punch atop the rotation is legitimately the best development to come along for this unit in more than a decade. We haven't seen a Minnesota starting corps this strong at the top since Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano were (so briefly) paired together at their peaks. Injuries and setbacks are always on the table, as we know too well (the previous example serving as case-in-point), but let's enjoy this for what it is: the foundation for an actual championship-caliber rotation. Almost equally encouraging is what's happened around Berrios and Romero. Jake Odorizzi has been brilliant, with a 3.34 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 11 starts. One can easily make the case that good fortune has aided his success – namely an 88 percent strand rate, and eight of 12 homers against him coming with bases empty. But Odorizzi's proneness to home runs is well known to everyone, including himself. He works around it. And I'm not convinced it's entirely luck that has led to hitters slashing .156/.221/.313 against him with men on. He's been buckling down. Even if (when) he regresses a bit, Odorizzi can still be a solid mid-rotation piece and a fantastic return for Jermaine Palacios, who has a .473 OPS with Tampa's Double-A affiliate. Best of all, the Twins have optional control over Odorizzi at a reasonable cost in 2019, putting them in a great position of flexibility. The same is true for Kyle Gibson, who has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining. Gibson has finally swapped in his profile as a contact-heavy ground ball pitcher for that of a bat-missing filth-flinger, and this one suits him much better. His GB rate has dropped into the average range at 46.7%, but his swinging strike rate has skyrocketed to 11.9%, best among Twins starters and among the league's top 25. Gibson's transformation has been keyed by a heater registering a career-high 92.5 MPH (thanks in part to his increased reliance on the harder four-seamer) and breaking balls that are inducing a mind-boggling 57% miss rate, highest in the majors. Again, this isn't the mirage-like burst of success we've seen so often from Twins pitchers (including Gibby) in the recent past. This is a hurler on top of his game shoving some of the best stuff of anyone in the game. He has shown the ability to flat-out dominate when his command is there. And right now he's Minnesota's fourth starter. Lastly, we come to Lance Lynn. He's one of only two pitchers on the Twins roster with an ERA above 4.02, and it is of course well above, at 6.34. I won't try to convince you he hasn't been bad – I've been as maddened as anyone by his inexplicable inability to throw it over the plate – but cautious optimism is warranted. You've got the long track record of success. You've got the 3.98 ERA in four May starts, along with an improved strike rate (up to 63% from 56% in May) and decreased homer rate (only one allowed this month after five in April). There's also this: remember when I mentioned earlier that Romero is one of five AL starters with a grounder rate over 50% and a K/9 over 9? Lynn is one of the others. Among that group – which also includes Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton and Garrett Richards – he's the only one that hasn't been very good. The main reason for this is obvious, and entirely his own doing: he hasn't thrown enough strikes. But there are clear signs of improvement in this regard, and the peripherals show that when Lynn manages to throw the ball where he wants, it gets the result he wants. Five starters locked in with a K/9 of 8.8 or higher. Incredible. Two years ago, the Twins had zero starting pitchers with a K/9 higher than 7.7. Even if things go south again with Lynn, or any of the other four members of the rotation, Minnesota is well equipped for the occasion. Stephen Gonsalves is tearing it up in Rochester with a 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 rate. His success is the only reason we're not talking more about Zack Littell, who has also been phenomenal since his Triple-A promotion (2.05 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9). Finally, Trevor May and Ervin Santana are on the comeback trail. There's enough quality depth in play for the Twins rotation that Santana's concerning velocity reports can easily be taken in stride. Out in the bullpen, there is plenty more to like. Fernando Rodney shook off his early troubles and rounded into form beautifully. He's been as reliable as any closer in the game over the past month, converting eight consecutive saves while allowing zero runs on only two hits. Yes, to repeat: Rodney has surrendered two hits – both singles – in a calendar month. Even though his velocity is down a smidge from last year, it's absolutely remarkable to see a 41-year-old out there repeatedly hitting 95 on the gun. He's bringing the kind of overpowering stuff you wanna see in the ninth. Rodney currently looks like a slam-dunk addition for the front office. So too does Addison Reed, who is nicely fulfilling his envisioned role as Twins bullpen ace. Reed ranks second among Minnesota relievers in appearances, and they've almost all come in high-leverage spots. He's responded by delivering consistently, helping him accrue a 0.56 WPA, which leads the bullpen. Reed is on pace to post the highest mark in that category since Glen Perkins in his career year, 2013. As good as Reed's been, the star of this unit has been Ryan Pressly, who is finally pulling it all together at age 29. Last year, he had an odd tendency to get knocked around despite dazzling stuff, premium velocity, and good control. This year, the stuff has gotten even better and hitters just can't handle it. Pressly's swinging strike rate has jumped from 12.2% to 16.8%, which ranks 11th out of 180 qualified MLB relievers. He's been especially lethal in May, where that figure has jumped to 19%. He has given up one home run thus far, after giving up 10 in 2017. The strikeout parade continues with Zach Duke, who has rebounded spectacularly from his own early skid. Duke yielded five earned runs in his first four appearances, saddling him with a 16.88 ERA, but he's been whittling it down ever since. The lefty has been charged with just two earned runs in 19 appearances since then (1.26 ERA) while striking out 16. He's walked only two of 36 batters faced in May. Duke has been lights-out against left-handed hitters (.569 OPS) and good enough against righties so as not to force strict platoon usage. When you combine his output with that of Rodney and Reed, it can hardly be overstated what a profound positive impact the front office's offseason moves have had on the bullpen. One of their quieter additions is also paying dividends. The Twins signed Matt Magill to a minor-league deal in January, without much fanfare. He was the type of 28-year-old journeyman with an unimpressive track record who usually serves as organizational filler. Magill was mediocre with San Diego's Triple-A affiliate last year while usually throwing as a starter, and didn't make it to the majors all season. But Minnesota was intrigued by Magill's past stints in the bullpen, and the velocity increases it triggered. So they've tried him there again with exceptional results. Magill was sent down in spring training despite looking very good with an 8-to-2 K/BB ratio in five innings. At Triple-A, he kept it going with a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio over 8 2/3 frames to earn a call-up in late April. He has since looked the part of a major-league reliever, painting corners with 95 MPH fastballs while posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 11 appearances. He hasn't pitched in many big spots, and could be replaced if May comes off the DL this week, but neither is through any fault of his own. Magill looks like a heck of a find. Through all this, we haven't even mentioned the two key mainstays of last year's bullpen, who are also both pitching well. Taylor Rogers' inflated 5.59 ERA hides a 2.18 FIP. He had some ugly outings in late April, at the height of the team's slump, but has a 2.02 ERA in May and now looks like himself. That's also the case for Trevor Hildenberger, who remains perhaps the most important long-term cog in this pen. He has a 2.31 ERA in May, where he's holding opponents to a .186 average and inducing whiffs at an 18% rate. So there you have it. With about one-third of the season in the books, nearly every member of the Minnesota Twins pitching staff is looking like a positive asset. This is a huge credit to the front office, the coaching staff, and so many of these players who have turned corners personally. For the pitchers to be cruising along like this while a lackluster offense drags the team down was not a scenario any of us envisioned, but here we are. The upshot is that if these guys can keep it up as they have, the Twins have potential to really become a complete team if and when the bats awaken.
  19. I was talking specifically about his defense. But also it's very accurate to say he's trending in the wrong way at the plate. All you need to do is look at the K/BB numbers.
  20. In the Charles Dickens classic, A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by three ghosts. The last of these phantoms, the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, is most fearsome of all. Why? Because it represents what the future holds for Scrooge if he does not change his ways. Scrooge awakens from this haunting experience a new man, steered back toward a righteous path by the vision of a dire future. I'm not saying the Twins traded for Chris Carter to make a similar impression on Miguel Sano. I'm only saying it'd make a lot of sense. Image courtesy of Andy Marlin, USA Today In the Charles Dickens classic, A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by three ghosts. The last of these phantoms, the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, is most fearsome of all. Why? Because it represents what the future holds for Scrooge if he does not change his ways. Scrooge awakens from this haunting experience a new man, steered back toward a righteous path by the vision of a dire future. I'm not saying the Twins traded for Chris Carter to make a similar impression on Miguel Sano. I'm only saying it'd make a lot of sense. I feel for Carter. Had he come along 10 years earlier, he might've been viewed much differently as an asset. Not so long ago, the thought of a 29-year-old who led the league in home runs being forced to settle for a one-year, $3.5 million deal (as Carter did with the Yankees last February) would've been inconceivable. Forty-one homers got you paid. Period. But it is the reality of today's MLB, where strikeout-prone sluggers who lack complementary offensive skills, or any kind of defensive value, are not commodities. Carter was toiling away in Triple-A before Minnesota traded cash considerations to the Angels for him on Wednesday. After signing (once again, in late February) a minor-league contract with the Halos, he launched 13 homers with a .600 slugging percentage at Salt Lake, but the big-league club had no use for him. Carter will head to the minors in his new organization, too, but maybe not for long. The Twins evidently see a possible need for him, which might speak to the level of concern around Joe Mauer. Surely it's coincidence that Carter arrives in Rochester just as Sano (likely) departs to meet the Twins in Seattle. Surely it is. But... If you could handpick a "Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come" equivalent for Miguel's Ebenezer – in all of baseball – it would be Chris Carter. That's no disrespect to Carter, whose 158 home runs would tie Brian Dozier for 12th in Twins history. His power is prodigious, and has been since he was a 20-year-old mashing 39 home runs at High-A. But his grievously high strikeout rates have suffocated the impact of his immense pop. To be fair, Carter's still playing ball, and has a chance to return to the majors soon. He's hardly a worst-case scenario in the grand scheme. But he was also never gifted with the innate talent of Sano, whose shine has greatly diminished since an incandescent debut in 2015. Even as one who tries to give Sano every benefit of the doubt, I can't ignore the overwhelming evidence of a player who has strayed badly off course. Underwhelming numbers, tons of missed time, off-the-field allegations, and reports from those around him of an inexplicably lackadaisical attitude. Sano's career strikeout rate (36.1%) is considerably higher than Carter's (33.3%). It was at an outrageous 40% before he went down this year. While Sano still looks reasonably capable at third base, he's undeniably trending the wrong direction. The majestic power won't go away. But neither has that of Carter, who now finds himself a journeyman at age 31. Perhaps, if they have a passing encounter on Thursday, Sano will make a note of it. I found this quote from Paul Molitor, while an MLB investigation floated over Sano's head at Twins camp, rather interesting: “I think the trend has been he’s figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture. “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying.” The decision to bring Carter aboard was obviously not motivated by a desire to send some overly dramatic message to Sano. But the 24-year-old, very much at a career crossroads, would be wise to take it as such. The thought of that future, given his infinitely higher potential, should scare the dickens out of him. View full article
  21. I feel for Carter. Had he come along 10 years earlier, he might've been viewed much differently as an asset. Not so long ago, the thought of a 29-year-old who led the league in home runs being forced to settle for a one-year, $3.5 million deal (as Carter did with the Yankees last February) would've been inconceivable. Forty-one homers got you paid. Period. But it is the reality of today's MLB, where strikeout-prone sluggers who lack complementary offensive skills, or any kind of defensive value, are not commodities. Carter was toiling away in Triple-A before Minnesota traded cash considerations to the Angels for him on Wednesday. After signing (once again, in late February) a minor-league contract with the Halos, he launched 13 homers with a .600 slugging percentage at Salt Lake, but the big-league club had no use for him. Carter will head to the minors in his new organization, too, but maybe not for long. The Twins evidently see a possible need for him, which might speak to the level of concern around Joe Mauer. Surely it's coincidence that Carter arrives in Rochester just as Sano (likely) departs to meet the Twins in Seattle. Surely it is. But... If you could handpick a "Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come" equivalent for Miguel's Ebenezer – in all of baseball – it would be Chris Carter. That's no disrespect to Carter, whose 158 home runs would tie Brian Dozier for 12th in Twins history. His power is prodigious, and has been since he was a 20-year-old mashing 39 home runs at High-A. But his grievously high strikeout rates have suffocated the impact of his immense pop. To be fair, Carter's still playing ball, and has a chance to return to the majors soon. He's hardly a worst-case scenario in the grand scheme. But he was also never gifted with the innate talent of Sano, whose shine has greatly diminished since an incandescent debut in 2015. Even as one who tries to give Sano every benefit of the doubt, I can't ignore the overwhelming evidence of a player who has strayed badly off course. Underwhelming numbers, tons of missed time, off-the-field allegations, and reports from those around him of an inexplicably lackadaisical attitude. Sano's career strikeout rate (36.1%) is considerably higher than Carter's (33.3%). It was at an outrageous 40% before he went down this year. While Sano still looks reasonably capable at third base, he's undeniably trending the wrong direction. The majestic power won't go away. But neither has that of Carter, who now finds himself a journeyman at age 31. Perhaps, if they have a passing encounter on Thursday, Sano will make a note of it. I found this quote from Paul Molitor, while an MLB investigation floated over Sano's head at Twins camp, rather interesting: “I think the trend has been he’s figuring some things out; some things have been a little harder to get through to him,” Molitor said. “At times I’ve tried to involve people that might be able to provide a voice that will penetrate. We’re just trying to get him to see the bigger picture. “He loves to play. It’s all in front of him. He, as much as anyone in that clubhouse, wants what’s in front of him, but I’m not sure he understands what is required to reap those rewards — of competing, winning, financial security, taking care of his family. We’re trying.” The decision to bring Carter aboard was obviously not motivated by a desire to send some overly dramatic message to Sano. But the 24-year-old, very much at a career crossroads, would be wise to take it as such. The thought of that future, given his infinitely higher potential, should scare the dickens out of him.
  22. Careful not to strain yourself with that pat on the back, Chief. Last thing we need around here is another shoulder injury
  23. I dunno if it's desperation. I think he had a vision for this team returning to contention with Hughes as a front-line starter and Perkins as a closer, so he locked them up for (at the time) beyond reasonably costs. It was theoretically not a bad plan. They could have declined from where they were at when they signed and still been solid values. He couldn't have foreseen the way things would unravel for both.
  24. Carl Pavano signed with the Twins after rejecting a QO following the 2011 season. But that was a long time ago, and I don't even know if it was called a QO back then. You're right that it's pretty rare.
  25. He gave it his all. No one could deny that Phil Hughes did everything in his power to battle through major health woes in efforts to provide some return on Minnesota's investment in him. Ultimately, he couldn't fend off the inevitable. His twice-repaired shoulder just didn't have enough to give anymore. And on Monday night, the Twins announced they have designated the veteran right-hander for assignment, effectively ending his tenure with the team and leaving ownership on the hook for around $20 million still owed through 2019. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today He gave it his all. No one could deny that Phil Hughes did everything in his power to battle through major health woes in efforts to provide some return on Minnesota's investment in him. Ultimately, he couldn't fend off the inevitable. His twice-repaired shoulder just didn't have enough to give anymore. And on Monday night, the Twins announced they have designated the veteran right-hander for assignment, effectively ending his tenure with the team and leaving ownership on the hook for around $20 million still owed through 2019. There's no question. Terry Ryan's extension for Hughes in December of 2014, with two years still remaining on the pitcher's contract, was an ill-advised one. It now will cost the Pohlads, who may be able recoup some of the money through insurance (though I've seen nothing to that effect as of yet). But if ever a guy was deserving of such a leap of faith, it was Hughes. Let's not forget: this was a 27-year-old free agent, a former first-round draft pick and elite young talent coming off a down season, who – rather than taking the usual make-good-and-move-on route – signed for three years at a stunningly reasonable rate in Minnesota. Then, Hughes went on to deliver one of the top three seasons by a Twins starter in the past decade. And at the end of it, when he came one out short of reaching a $500K contract escalator at 210 IP, he turned down the team's offer to pony it up. Said it would set a bad precedent. Even for a millionaire pro athlete, that is a lot of money to walk away from. It added to a respect that I'd already built up for Hughes. I enjoyed watching him early in his career from afar, even as a member of the hated Yankees. I was a huge fan of his contract with the Twins – to this day, I consider it the finest Ryan ever signed (even if the extension negated that brilliant stroke). And watching Hughes pitch in 2014 was a true delight. He was at the pinnacle of his craft, consistently hitting spots with lethal precision while setting the all-time MLB record for K/BB ratio. For what it's worth, according to FanGraphs, Hughes was worth $44.7 million in that season alone, accounting for about two-thirds of the $66 million he'll make in his tenure with the club. And while he's never come close to approximating that performance in four seasons since, he has tried. After throwing a career-high 209 innings in 2014, Hughes saw a serious velocity drop in 2015. He fought through and tossed 155 innings with a respectable 4.40 ERA. We all hoped his arm would rebound the next year; he was still under 30, after all. It didn't. Hughes lost more arm strength in 2016 and his performance became untenably bad. A line drive to the leg ended his season, but only beat to the punch the real culprit: a bum shoulder. He underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome a few weeks later. Hughes rehabbed and came back to spring training in 2017 feeling optimistic. But it quickly became apparent he still didn't have it. The Twins tried him as a reliever for a while and then, realizing the same symptoms were inhibiting him as before, had him go under the knife for a second time to relieve his enduring shoulder condition. The success rate for two-time TOS surgery recipients is very low. Hughes recognized that. Through it all, he kept trying to tinker and find some way to get major-league hitters out. Even in my brief interactions with Hughes while covering spring training in Ft. Myers, it was obvious the man experiments relentlessly to find any kind of edge. No amount of tinkering, however, can offset a nonfunctional shoulder. The decision to move on was sadly long overdue, and allows the new front office leadership to move on uninhibited by his burdensome presence on the roster. Hughes is still only 31 years old. It's very possible he'll find his way back after a lengthy period to rest and strengthen his shoulder. I really hope he does. But it wasn't going to happen here. And now that chapter is closed. As of Monday night, the Twins had not announced a replacement for Hughes on the 25-man roster, though we're hearing it'll likely be Ryan LaMarre. The vacant 40-man spot should soon be filled by Trevor May, eligible to come off the 60-day DL in a week. View full article
×
×
  • Create New...