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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    The only reason(s) IMO from being in MN this year, is the 40 man roster crunch or Injuries, if he doesn't stay healthy, I believe he will be just another body that needs to be on the 40 man next year.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    Miranda is on the 40 man, so I see him making the team out of spring training before Rooker, unless Rooker takes the 4th outfield spot over Laranch. But anyway you look at it this team could easily be as bad as some of the worst Twins teams ever, question marks at every level, no chance I would pay to see this team, or even watch it on TV. I am not sure how a team could come up with a worse pitching staff than this, there is really only one for sure pitcher in Rogers (and he was injured at the end of last year). Every other pitcher is a question mark.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    I just don't see this happening. 100 inning relief pitchers for a bunch of reasons. Scott Proctor was the last pitcher to do it at age 29 for his career basically last one more year. Dellin Betances pitched 90 as a 25 year old rookie went down each of the next four years, and has been hurt or terrible the last 3. Also, I can't imagine union or at least player agents being OK, with bringing up pitchers on the cheap to pitch 100 innings and then basically their career being over or not have a chance for a multiple year contracts. Also I see agents steering their players away from teams setting up their minor leagues system to implement it. But all this just my opinion.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    Lets hope Duran figures out better than Alcala, Alcala might have figured it based on his last 10-20 innings against some of the worst teams in baseball in his second season.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    I agree with this, IMO he is rated too high. He will be 24 this season which isn't horrible, but having pitched only 16 innings the last two years isn't a good. IMO if he is running out of options, it makes no sense to waste any time in the minors, he can pitch out of the bullpen (starting with low stress situations, maybe have a starter and have him planned to pitch two innings, or coming in for a couple innings if a starter goes bad) in majors and keep his innings down and be around major league coaches. I seen no reason to be wasting 100 mph fast balls from a 24 year old pitcher in AAA. Or trade him and let the other team worry about the 40 man roster spot, like TB did with Strotman) Not to change the subject but are all the other teams having issues with pitching injuries based on the missed 2020 season or are the Twins fans (me included) just wanting to make excuses?
  6. TwinsDr2021
    I think if you go back a few years on this site, the consensus was the Twins had a wealth of SS prospects. Lewis, Javier, Gordon, Cavaco, Will Holland. So my answer to the topic question is, yes they absolutely have a SS development problem, but so might 25 or so other teams.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    I agree the only pitchers I would rate above him are Ryan, Balazovic, and maybe SWR. And only below Miranda, Lewis, Martin, so he should be IMO 6 or 7. Unless the belief is that Canterino could make his way though AA and AA and to the majors this year, but if he does I don't see that happening as a starter (just based on the expected innings this year), his stuff seems better than Winder, but with the amount of innings he has pitched the last 2 years, I don't know if I expect to see him in the majors until late 2023.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    It only matters when it comes to fans perception of trades I guess. Trading a prospect ranked 25 for a relief pitcher for example, is perceived way different that a prospect ranked in the top 5. IMO I think of prospects as possible difference makers in the MLB. a 24 year old prospect in A/AA is less likely to be a difference maker than a 21/22 year old at the same level. With the covid year I think prospects that missed the year in the minors will tend to be a bit older for a few years, but in reality the cream always rises to the top and biggest difference makers will almost always come from the guys that make the majors at a younger age.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    If he comes close to Greg Gagne he would have exceeded all expectations IMO. Gagne has a career WAR of 26.3 and 10 years of a WAR above 1 and 8 above 2.2. Also to stay on the age theme, he debuted at age 21 but to be fair didn't really play until age 23.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    Calling BS on this one Seth, if Varland and Wallner did what they just did at A+ at age 21, they would be WAY higher up in the rankings, also if Celestino was already 24 and hadn't turned 23 yesterday he wouldn't barely be in the top 25 prospects. I don't really care if they get called up at 21 or 26 either if they turn out to be really good, but there has been talk on this board for two years about Kepler (trading him, not good enough, 4th outfielder, etc..) and he will be playing this year at 29. But if a 26 year old gets called up and plays like Larnach or gets hurt like AK, nobody has time to deal with that the other younger prospects that will be the guys getting the hype and playing time.
  11. TwinsDr2021
    I think the big difference between Lewis and Torkelson, is that Torkelson has played one year in them minors at three levels, hit 30 homers and had a .935 OPS. Lewis hasn't been played in two years, and the expectation of the two are way different going into this year. I would expect Torkelson should contribute in the majors, and IMO Lewis shouldn't be expected to even play in the majors this year. (hopefully he can exceed those expectations and prove people wrong) But that is the reason Torkelson is a top 10 prospects and Lewis is barely in the top 100. IMO age is a huge difference, but Lewis isn't a good example, because he is still young, He can still make the majors by 23, even if it is the start of 2023. have a good weekend.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    Not disagreeing with you but Torkelson might not be the best example, he was drafted in 2020, played basically all of 21 as a 21 year old and played at A+, AA, and AAA, and won't turn 23 until August, so unless Detroit is playing a service game he should see the majors at age 22. Rutschman I believe was affected by Covid and if not for that would more than likely have been in the majors last year as a 23 year old (since his birthday was a week ago). Matt Wallner was drafted in the same draft and hasn't played above A+.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    I would tend to agree with Covid the ages might creep up, but in most cases guys that are future All Star types will still see the majors at a fairly young age at least on the offense side of things. I think where we will really see the difference is in the pitchers based on how careful teams are with them. And the idea there is no need to bring a 22 year old up when you can stretch him out in the minors a year or two and control that pitcher though his late 20's.I can see lower Revenue teams to doing that so they never really have to pay the big dollars for pitchers. Cleveland for example has kind of been doing that, it might not be intentional but Clevinger, Plesac, Civale, Morgan, Plutko, and Kluber are examples.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    I would agree that I think of prospects as kind of the game changing players, not just guys that will make it. For example and forgive me if I missed somebody, but looking at last years all stars and when they first played in the majors it seems pretty consistent that the best ball players start their MLB career early. There are rare cases like De Grom. Which means most of the Twins prospects need to step it up this year if they hope to be future All Stars. Age Players 19 2 20 10 21 10 22 18 23 14 24 14 25 6 26 4 27 2 28 1
  15. TwinsDr2021
    No it would have been terrible for the Twins to sign him to that or really any contract. The "but" was now the players aren't getting as much of the overall Revenue because guys like that aren't getting the money and teams are smart enough not to pay somebody like or Rosario/Dozier for example and give those jobs to younger cheaper guys. For example take Ricky Nolasco for example and what he got, Pineda has been similiar and can't get that. Good for teams bad for players.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    I would add another thing that got MLB to this point is analytics. Take Brian Dozier for example, here is a guy that hit 42 homers at age 29 and 34 at age 30, and has only made 30 million in his career. In the past at 32 he probably would have gotten better than 9 million 1 year contract. Stuff like this is good for mid to low revenue teams but....
  17. TwinsDr2021
    ? agree with this statement. The season is over we have what players actually did, not what they should have done. But we can look at those numbers and use them as prediction going forward.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    We including me keep saying that but it would be interesting to see if it is actually True, Miranda for one came back better. Maybe the guys that are going to be good did fine or improved and maybe the guys that take way longer or never were going to make it suffered. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. On another note if Lewis wasn't already trending down on the national lists, I don't think the injury would have affected his status as much as it has. Starting high on the top prospects lists, there are really only two paths, one is quick to the majors and the other is down the prospects lists and hope to prove them wrong. Lewis has always seemed the guy that was going to follow the second path. Enlow on the other had has probably never been on the national prospects radar, but since we are super fans we see a guy that was a 3rd round pick that was supposed to go to LSU and see a future ace. He hasn't done anything in the minors that screams that, but we hope and hope and then he gets injured and we get to use that as an excuse to hope and hope and dream so more. Enlow has probably always been over hyped by us, he turns 23 and never has pitched above high A, if not for the Covid missed year, he would have to come back from injury lights out to even be considered a prospect anymore.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    With the 40 man current construction, for every none pitcher that gets put on somebody must go on the 60 day or be cut, so to see Palacios, my guess is Gordon will be gone or more pitching injuries. Also IMO, I don't think a team is going to take a 25 SS that has a lifetime .715 OPS in the minors (He has been playing AA since 2018) so for him to do what he did at Wichita last year shouldn't be surprising, it should have been expected. Nick Gordon put up better numbers in AA at age 21 and 22. And for a guy like Palacios, the Covid missed year shouldn't be an excuse, he has been in the minors since he was 17 in (2014), lots of people get hurt and miss a year. He has had a couple of good years in the minors after basically repeating a level. It is almost sad that as Twins fans we are talking about guys like Palacios being a help or possible solution to a problem. Do other "real" teams talk about losing a guy to rule 5 that was a FA minor league signing?
  20. TwinsDr2021
    They added a plan C for SS, hopefully it is plan C.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    what I said was and you quoted it - "If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me' And that is my opinion, others can certainly have their own opinion. We can debate all day how valuable having control over them the last year is, I just think it might be more important to hold back a guy to get that last year when they are 27, 28, 29, then it is when they are 31, 32, 33. In your scenario, it would seem smart to not waste active roster spot on somebody that is going to pitch twice, which is also a different argument than keeping him down for they get an extra year at the end of his rookie deal. We could create hypothetical all day, for example if the go to a hybrid or stacked strategy, he could pitch 5 times and have between 10- 15 innings in and the manager and FO could have a real good feel for him, but those are just hypothetical and mean nothing until the FO decides what is going to happen.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    That isn't at all what I said, Maybe follow along to what I wrote instead of projecting. Berrios made his major league debut at 22, Bumgarner at 19, and Darvish was signed out of Japan, and was not part of the 6 years rookie control. If teams are willing to keep an older prospect in the minors (Winder for example age 25) because they feel the need to make sure that they have him at age 32 instead of just age 31, that seems weird to me. Then I said if poor teams can't afford to sign any 31/32/33 pitcher to a expensive type contract, in theory wouldn't they get a better return for a 29/30 pitcher than a 31/32 year old pitcher? Lets use a few pitchers as example, which pitcher do people think will cost the most in prospect capital? ( Bassitt, Montas) Now it is not apples to apples because Montas has an extra year, so lets ask it this way which A's pitcher would return the best prospects, trading Montas (28) before this year or Bassitt (32) before last year.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    I agree with that, I guess the rule makes sense when you are bringing up younger prospects (20,21,22) but when the prospects are older the rule or teams keeping them in the minors seems weird, Winder is 25 for example, are teams really worried about that extra year when they are over 30? I have read people say we should be trading Garver since he is already 31, and he won't hit FA until 2024. Also if the poor teams really want to trade guys to get prospects, wouldn't it make sense to trade them during their prime to get better prospects in return?
  24. TwinsDr2021
    I guess it depends on the definition of helpful. Does getting to play because there are no other options count as helpful. At this point all three are on the 40 man, so if something happens to somebody they should get a chance, Combined last year they played in 135 for a negative WAR, but it seemed helpful because the Twins had nobody else. Based on the lineup MikeLink45 above these 3 are or should be counted as plan B for injuries or being terrible. The sad part is I don't see a plan C. The Twins can't trade Kepler until AK, Larnach or Celestino prove they are capable otherwise the Twins could have the worst OF in the majors no matter how good Buxton is, Can't trade Garver until you know Jeffers has it figured out, because that turns what is considered a strength into a hole in the lineup. Can't trade Donaldson because if Miranda doesn't pan out, they have no back up 3B, unless you want an infield with Arraez at 3B, Gordon at SS and Polanco at 2b, and Sano at first. And the biggest problem of all is there isn't much if any room on the 40 to replace offense. In the end I will say Gordon he seems like the most likely to be on the Twins opening day.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    Haven't all or most of the prospects been hurt as well? I will add giving up a major league catcher for one year is too much, the second trade seems high as well. To me this is the kind of trade you make for a Rooker, Cavaco, and some arm in low A.
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