TwinsDr2021

I am more worried about the Sox then Cleveland. IF Cease keeps pitching this well and Giolito starts pitching like he has in the past, Cueto continues finding the fountain of youth, and Lynn and Kopech get hot that is a pretty solid rotation that could put together a few long win streaks. and with Graveman, Lopez and Hendriks that is a pretty good back end of the pen. If they add Robertson or Bard that looks pretty formidable. Plus their lineup isn't terrible and if a few of the guys that have been terrible play better (Pollock, Moncada, Grandal and Jimenez) things could look real bad for the good guys.

Not to get to far off topic but remember last year when people were losing their minds because the Twins traded Ynoa and Gil and how they could have been the savior to the 22 rotation? Kind of amazing nobody seems to be anywhere near as upset over losing Wells in the rule 5 to Baltimore. And it is crazy that he as a career WAR of 2.5 which is higher than Ober's (1.5) - (To be fair he is almost a year older) Back on topic, to me after reading all the messages and seeing all the prospect names that have been mentioned, it seems the Twins have somewhere between 10 - 20 guys they could easily trade for relief pitching help without hurting the "pipe line"

I would hope those on the trade Correa bandwagen are also on the trade Gray, Sanchez, Kepler, Duffey, Smith, Archer, Pagan, Bundy, Sano, Cotton otherwise your logic makes zero sense.

I think like everything else people want to hear what they want to hear. In this case I believe I understood beans point, and was confused at Steve's thread. But other times I am the one hearing something different.

If you are going down that path, they could make this trade and claim Castillo is part of of the pipeline as well, since it was Winder and SWR/Berrios that got Castillo? Does the pipe line look better with Castillo, Gray, Ryan, Ober or Gray, Ryan, Winder, Ober? The first looks better this year and next, probably not so much after that though.

I can agree with a longer season, not sure about the more innings, seems a few will have pitched more last year than this year. But injuries in the present and past have contributed to the limiting of innings, which IMO most fans understand, the fans don't understand or agree with limiting pitchers to roughly 21 batters faced and how based on innings and pitch count it seems so inconsistent. If you ignore the pitch count and innings if is very easy to predict when the starter will be pulled. For example Ryan being taken out in Detroit, told my son exactly what was going to happen and when he was going to be taken out. 22 batters faced and a lefty up, he was coming out 100%,

By young do you mean inexperienced? Because Duran would be the only pitcher on the Twins that I would call young and he is 24 1/2 years old. Jax is 27, Moran is 25, Ryan is 26, Ober 27, Smeltzer just a month away from 27, and WInder just over two months will 26. IMO, when I think of young players, I think of anything under 24, but that is me. Also IMO I don't see 23 much different than 22, pretty much the same starters and pen. Ryan, Ober, Gray, Winder, replace Bundy and Archer with Maeda and Paddock. Not sure how much of an up grade that is, and there is no guarantee Winder or Ober will be any healthier or Cleveland and the White Sox having a bad start and Correa?. I see the same disagreements at this time next year, this team needs can't win so why trade because 24 will be the year. (again I am not for trading for a starter, but multiple bullpen arms for sure, and maybe a catcher.

Not really meant for you, but it fits my narrative didn't the Twins give up the farm to compete this year with trading Petty and spending 35 million on Correa? So if that didn't get the Twins were they want to be isn't selling the best thing for the twins (Kepler, Gray, Correa, maybe Pagen and Theilbar, and really not anybody named Buxton, AK, Larnach, Lewis, Winder, Ober, and Ryan) Or do the Twins have to go even further in, since they decided have already spent a first round pick and 35 million and they are 3 games up on second? I do agree with you selling the farm isn't the way to go I am completely against trading for a starting pitcher, I don't believe they would change their usage of a new pitcher any different than they treat their current starters, but the real question is what does selling the farm really mean? Is trading 2 two top 10 prospects and 2 top 20 prospects (between 10 - 20) and lets say 3 outside of the top 20 selling the farm? Is trading Lewis the farm? It would be interesting what people thinking trading the farm means? Now I believe the Twins could trade, Strotman, Enlow, Cavaco, Sands, Sabato, Varland, Henriquez, Steer and Wallner for example and not really effect the Twins going forward the next few years.

Not really sure what point you are trying to make? I told you how a few dozens fans in Florida felt about the trade and you basically called them idiots, which is kind of strange because it was the Rays that made the trade not the fans and the fans were OK with it? So who should not be running developing organizational strategies for my companies the FO of the Rays or the Fans? You seemed to miss the part where they said they hate the way the Rays run, but have faith they won't screw it up. you do know that people are allowed to feel that way, correct? I feel like you are saying Tampa's future is now screwed because they traded away two prospects to try and add to a team that had a chance? The trade didn't work out how Tampa was hoping, but at the end of the day did the screw their future by giving up Ryan? As for "the premise" it isn't like they don't know they Twins got great deal or steal, it is that they don't care, their Team when it had a chance went out and did something to improve and sure it cost Ryan and Strotman, but big deal it isn't like Ryan is future Cole, Verlander or McClanahan type he was just a 25 year old good to pretty good major future major league pitcher and freed up two 40 man roster spots for 22. I will say for every Joe Ryan that is traded, there are way more Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonslaves, and TYler Jay's of the world that aren't traded and never amount to anything.

I am twice his age and 10% as athletic as Winder, but shoulder impingement doesn't sound good for him. I have been dealing with a shoulder impingement for going on 9 months and it is no fun. Good Luck to him.

My company has an office in Tampa and talking to people that work there, nobody cares they gave up Ryan for Cruz, they laugh at me and others that say the Twins stole Ryan for a DH. Their reasons are Tampa went out a basically got the best hitter available which is awesome even if it didn't work out and Ryan is just another 5 inning pitcher and they are a dime a dozen in the Rays system, they care about the future rotation studs (who they know will be traded in the future, but they get a couple of years). They all say they pretty much hate the way Tampa goes about its business but they do have faith in the FO won't screw things up, most of them say they haven't been to a game in years but follow the team pretty closely. ( I know it is SSS but those are the only people I know if north Florida) on that note can the Twins afford that kind of fan? One that pays attention from a far but never really dives head first in caring or spending money on them? I see most of my friends slowing going that route (ages 45-55) or already being there. No streaming option might be the biggest reason, but some say Twins don't really seem to care about winning big so why should they, IMO the Twins need to make a splash this year, they have plenty of prospects subtracting a few will not hurt the future and if it does maybe this aren't the guys for the front office. I against getting a starter, because what good does it do to go out and get a guy and ask him to face 21/22 guys unless of course they get a guy and they let him actually pitch, but that isn't likely. Maybe a Happ/Robertson trade with the cubs, that is splashy and makes the Twins look like they are trying to do something.

I like your thinking, he is a switch hitter under control though next year, That would free up a trade with Larnach and a pitching prospect for a controllable pitcher.

Well if you work is like mine, they don't care one bit about my opinions on the MN Twins. Can't imagine why?

Interesting, So Duran goes two and Gray 7, imagine if Gray only goes 5, how f'd the bullpen will be after that game?

I am with @nicksaviking I see a big second half from Polanco. I also like AK to improve and really start his ascent to one the better players in the American League (fingers crossed). As for Ober I don't see it, I don't think he will even be allowed to be the Ober of old until mid to late August and that Ober is no star, just a 4-5 inning pitcher. I can't imagine he can, will have the time or be allowed to even put up Chris Archer's first half stats and I don't see anybody call Archer a Twins first half star.

Maybe the solution to this problem is 8 starters that go 4 innings, Smelter/Gray Ryan/Bundy Archer/Winder Ober/Jax That caps all their innings at 160 if perfectly healthy and go 4 innings each time. Then you have 5 short guys to rotate though. Duran, Thielbar, Pagan, Smith Duffey for example, and if need be the bus system to St. Paul. Nobody would ever have to face a batter the super scary 3rd time, Seems to completely take injuries out of play by limiting pitches and innings, seems like the perfect solution plus you never have to spend big money on a starting pitcher because no starting pitcher worth anything would agree to that. So you have piles and piles of money to spend on offense/defensive. (I mean I hate everything about it, but....)

When you go though the league leaders and All Star lineups, most of the players were guys that had at least made the major league debut during age 23 or before. Now there are some exceptions, catchers and relief pitchers tend to be a little bit older. But generally if a guy hasn't had a cup of coffee prior to age 24 he is way less likely to be an all star for example. There were 20 pitchers that pitched in the all star game, 10 made their major league debut at 23 or younger, which mean 10 were older, the oldest were 25(3) two were relief pitchers and one was Gonsolin. 7 were 24 3 were starters the other 4 relief pitchers. There were 42 batters in the all star game. 2 debuted at 19, 8 at 20, 9 at 21,8 7 at 22, 4 at 23, 5 at 24, Judge and Alfonso are the big guns, followed by France, Cron and 3 catchers. 2 at 25, (Espinal, why was he chosen over Polanco and Trevino a catcher. 3 at 26. (Cooper, McNeil and Cronenworth) Croneworth seems to be the outlier. So yes there are guys that become stars or better than just major league players, but it is the exception to the rule not the rule. That is why for me Martin has dropped out of the top 10 he turns 24 prior to next season and if he doesn't make his debut this year (which it certainly doesn't look like) the odds he becomes anything like Arraez and not Nick Gordon go way down To me I get sick of hearing about the Covid season as an excuse, and it seems mostly to be propping up the Twins prospects to be better than they are, and yest it pushed back most of the players a bit, but the real stars rose to the top. I mean Lewis has missed a season with injury and Covid and still debuted before his 23rd birthday (barely) Bobby Witt missed the Covid season and went from rookie ball to AA.

Arg, I know he is 25 and a old 25 at that (26 in three months), and I know I am being inconsistent, but I thought he should have came up directly from AA last year and IMO has pitched so much better than the rest of the prospects and beside the end of the year doesn't seem been injury prone, so maybe it is by default I moved him up because the rest I have moved down and I didn't feel I could put teenagers and guys that haven't pitched in the minors above him.

Besides Archer(17.63) the Twins are pretty consistent on how many batters they let their starters face on average. Bundy - 21.19 Ryan - 21.86 Gray - 21.17 Smelzter - 21.33 Ober - 20.29 Winder - 21.14 From my research only six times all year has a Pitcher faced more than 25 batters (3 - Bundy, 1 each from Gray, Smelzter, and Ober) in a game and only twice more than 27 (Both Bundy). What this tells me is while it seems wildly inconsistent on what Rocco is doing with the pitching staff from game to game, the plan seems to be to get a starting pitcher to end an inning right around the 18 batters faced mark even if that means pitching to a few guys a third time to accomplish that and in a rare few cases letting them pitch an extra inning if it is the bottom of the order. Also it tells me if you are a pitcher, you might as well go all out just about every pitch because it doesn't really matter how well you do or save yourself for late in the game, it isn't happening. IMO the Twins have ZERO plans on changing this plan, because from what I can tell this is exactly what is happening in the minors as well, so hoping we get some stud like Shane Bieber for example isn't going to happen, thus also the reason I don't see them signing a high priced free agent starter, why would the Twins sign a guy like Musgrave/Ray/Rondon/etc.. to a high price salary when you are going to limit their innings, and if you are one of those guys and you want to leave a mark on being one of the best pitchers in your generation why would sign here? Also IMO that is why the Happ/Shoemaker/Archer/Bundy's of the world are willing to sign here because that takes advantage of their skills. Just took a peak at Berrios and in 20 his average was around 22, and the start of 21 it was around 21-22 until mid may, but after than average around 26, speculation maybe that is when the two sides decided the Twins wasn't his future and the Twins realized they needed to pitch him more to showcase him? He only pitched less than 6 innings in 3 of his last 15 starts here. and then again instead of being on to something maybe I am just on something.

That was going to be my question has Winder lost his status? If not he is my number 2, Lee 3, Rodriquez 4, then 5 would be Raya or Prielipp. I am more in the camp that the top prospects should be young or at least on the younger side. The Steer, Wallner, Canterino will all be 25 (probably) before they see their first major league action. My reasoning is older guys end up more like Gordon than lets say Arraez or Buxton. I also like what Steve Hajjar is doing (minus the innings per start) but 62 K's in 39 innings is impressive and should be moving up the lists fairly quickly.

Well those people completely under estimate what the Twins have to trade, IMO to get a top SP (Cin/Oak) it will take two guys offer the major league roster (Ober and Larnach/AK/Mirana for example) or Lewis because the Twins just don't have the prospect capital to pull this off without offering four or five prospects. I am always for trading prospects for top guys, but this year the Twins just don't have that ability IMO. If the Twins top prospects were pitching like Romero, Gonzo, and Graterol did a few years back, I would say trade a SWR, Balazovic, Canterion, Henriquez, Varland, Sands and a Steer/Wallner for a top starting pitcher, but sadly this just isn't the case this year (it might take all those guys to get it done) Looking back at the last few trade deadlines, guys like Robertson and Bard, shouldn't cost all that much, but unless the Twins are willing to overpay it isn't going to happen until the last possible minute while those team push for all they can get.

What I heard was drain the farm system for 2 1/2 years of Soto. ?

I get that, but one would argue about 50-100 minor league players that weren't sold at their high or Low and never made it. I just can't say I am glad these players weren't sold because I have no idea what the Twins have gotten in return. Maybe the Twins could have gotten Zac Gallen in 19, or Greinke or Ray in 20 for some or all of them. Puk has blown 3 of 14 this year which is 22%, not great not terrible. True on Robertson in all 5 blown saves he has given up 1 run and hasn't given up a run in his 13 saves and has once this year given up more than 1 run and Puk also has only given up more than 1 run once this I will take that. (To compare Duran has given up more than 1 run 4 times)

The trade simulator makes it not even close (AK - 24.3), Ober (15.2), Laureano (45.5) and Montas (27.1), not sure way it has Laureano so how, I would rather have AK than him. It looks like the trade simulator isn't a fan of the Twins in general. Polanco is the top guy at 39.4, Arraez 32, Ryan 32, Laranch 28, then Lewis, AK, Kepler, Miranda, Jeffers, Winder, Correa, Ober, Duran.

What is going to make next year or any other year better than this year? Just about all of next years team is set. AK, Polanco, SS(Lewis or fill in till he is 100%), Miranda, Laranch, Buxton, Kepler, Jeffers (basically the same lineup minus Correa. The rotation is basically set Gray, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Maeda/Paddock/Dobnack, and dang near the bullpen as well. So even if by some miracle they sign a Musgrave isn't next years team basically the same, not good enough to compete? So at this time next year the same reasons for not doing anything will be happening? On top of maybe Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox don't crap the bed at the beginning of the year and basically give the Twins the chance to run away with the division.