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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm ok with him playing 3B as well as OF for now; he could possibly play there. He's got the arm to be impressive and might have the kind of range chasing down pop-ups in foul territory along with a solid enough glove to be really good there with all his athleticism. And the transition from 3B to 1B is a fairly normal one. But middle infield seems like a bad fit.
  2. jmlease1
    He's got loads of physical ability. And he's definitely in a real groove right now. Hopefully he's figuring out a process at the plate that's sustainable and more consistent. I would like the Twins to move him off SS; there seems little to no chance he'll ever play there in MLB and figuring out what his actual position is makes sense to start doing now. Maybe it's CF. Maybe it's 3B. But it's not SS.
  3. jmlease1
    You have to feel great about Mendez so far this season. It's early days in AAA, and the leap to MLB is the most treacherous of all, but he's doing great so far. If he keeps rolling in June he'll be knocking on the door and I love it when prospects are trying to push their way on the team through performance. Mendez can play some 1B too, even if his best position might really be "hitter". Not a bad pickup for a rental trade. Love seeing Tait, Diaw, and Mercedes all have multi-hit games at the same time like that. Those are 3 position players in Cedar Rapids that I find intriguing and will be following all season. Lots of talent, lots of upside there IMHO. Klein will be in the 'pen sooner rather than later, IMHO, but I'd like to see him hand out fewer free passes and long balls. But I think he can be a useful high-velocity arm in the 'pen in the future.
  4. jmlease1
    well, let's see where Jax is when he actually starts handling a starters load for more than 3 outings before declaring the TB experiment a "success". His K-rates have dropped back down a ton and his FIP suggests he's been getting some good luck so far. It's also only 28 innings on the season, who knows? The move to the bullpen was an excellent one for Jax; he quickly went from being an unimpressive starter that didn't appear to have a lot of upside to a guy who could be trusted to lock down games late & close. He upped his velocity and really developed the slider into a weapon (and anyone who thinks that Jax did all that on his own and the Twins staff were the ones holding him back somehow need a reality check). Can he maintain that velocity over the course of a season? Can he hold up throwing 30-40 sliders in a night? Can he get his walks back down to a more reasonable proportion? Is he going to be giving up lots of longballs again now that he's starting? (he's been more homer-happy over the past 2 anyways...) Is Jax starting because TB really believes in him as a starter, or is it because they don't have 5th starter they're happy with? (notably, they have 5 pitchers on the 60 day IL) Regardless, Bradley has been great for the Twins and Jax is going to have to pile up a bunch of good starts to match him, even with Taj missing some time with an injury. Trade is still working out just fine for the Twins.
  5. jmlease1
    As a backup catcher, he seemed like he could be useful, and as an insurance policy in AAA a real asset. Until Tait and other options in the minors are ready, we'll likely need a guy like Jackson. It'll be interesting to see how he does on challenges; that's been a real plus from Jeffers and Caratini IMHO.
  6. jmlease1
    I think the basic idea here is correct: Royce should be open to playing other spots as he works his way back to MLB. While 3B might still be his best position and where he can add the most value if he's hitting, he would be wise to should an openness to working at 1B or 2B as well, where there is opportunity for playing time. (not sure I'd send him to the OF since there's likely less opportunity there once Roden, Rodriguez, and Jenkins come back and with Mendez & GG pushing forward and Fedko trying to prove he deserves a shot, but YMMV) Royce has the skillset to play 1B well and we don't have a long-term answer there or a good platoon for Clemens. Keaschall has had enough of a sophomore slump to not have a hold on 2B, and while I think Lee's best position is probably 3B, he might be best in a utility role that moves around the diamond. Royce should show openness to trying it. Hopefully since he's at AAA he will; I do agree that his prior comments are likely being overstated. (and I can't blame a guy for worrying that he's going to embarrass himself and harm the team trying to slide to a very unfamiliar position on short notice in MLB) This is ridiculous, though: Lewis most certainly does have 20 homer power; even with his slumps his 162 game average for his career is 27 homers. He's just never been healthy enough to get in enough games...
  7. jmlease1
    Just because Sano struck out a lot doesn't mean he had no eye at the plate. In fact, he had an excellent eye at the plate and was quite selective, which is part of why he got into so many deep counts and both struck out a lot and walked a lot. I get that most everyone around here hated Sano and he's used as a talisman for everything that's gone wrong with Twins hitters, but let's not just make stuff up, eh? A recent failure for the Twins as a hitter with no eye at the plate was someone like Miranda, who swung at everything, especially when he was either on a hot streak or a cold streak.
  8. jmlease1
    I'd rather ride with Travis Adams in the bullpen than guys like Luis Garcia or even Justin Topa. Let's find out what we have with some of these younger guys who might be part of the future. Maybe it doesn't happen for Adams and he ends up just being a marginal guy, but let's see what happens when he pares down the repertoire, works on refining those pitches, and maybe gets a tick more velo from throwing 1-2 innings instead of trying to pace for 5+ There's some possibilities here.
  9. jmlease1
    It's great seeing Lewis hit bombs against AAA pitching, but that's not going to get him an immediate bounce back call-up, and I think the Twins staff will have explained that to him. He's got to show that he is addressing the things that ruined him in MLB: not being able to hit fastballs in the zone, flailing at breaking pitches away, showing poor pitch recognition, and so on. It's great for his confidence to murder a mistake, but the process matters as much as the results for him, and the difference between AAA pitching and MLB pitching is substantial. But if he can do a re-set in Saint Paul, find his smile again, and come back ready to roll then that's excellent news. I remain baffled by the people who seem to prefer that he fail? Quick is fascinating. He hunts K's like nobody's business and can just overpower guys, which is very fun. 10 BBs in 20 1/3 innings says he needs some work, though. Upside feels very high, and the floor is pretty dang high too, so looking forward to seeing where he is in another month. Just want to see him get a full season and at least another 50-60 innings innings in, even if he stays at Cedar Rapids the rest of the year.
  10. jmlease1
    There's a very sticky belief around here that Polanco had a lot more value than he actually did in 2024 too. Did the Twins make a great trade? No, because DeScalfani was a bust who ate up payroll while providing nothing. But they did get a good asset in GG who has real ability as a hitter, and while Topa imploded really badly this season (extremely disappointing; while the injury issues were predictable, him stinking up the joint like a week old dead fish was much less likely) he'd been useful before. Polanco's injury history, salary, and questions about his defensive position made him harder to trade than people thought and the value prospect around the league just wasn't what people expected in his walk year. It's notable that after a meh season in Seattle he re-signed at a pay cut in his first chance at free agency. What's fairly unbelievable is that after a bounce back season he got such a stunner of a deal from the Idiot Mets. I mean, good for him: good dude, and he's set up his family for generational wealth if he's careful but he would have needed to stay healthy and hit like prime Jorge while fielding an actual position beyond DH for that deal to be worth it. What insanity. GG needs to get his bat on track, but I think he can get there again. He's definitely showing he can punish LHP, which is certainly something the Twins need to be getting from the OF. Would love to see him be a guy who can play some OF/1B/DH and give the Twins the ability to mix and match more with their hitters. Bell won't be here next season, Outman might be gone sooner rather than later, Larnach seems unlikely to get re-signed, Wallner has opened the door for someone to take his job, Caratini isn't going to be playing much 1B in the future (JMO) so there is real opportunity for someone like GG to go out and win a job. Glad he got a start with this cup of coffee.
  11. jmlease1
    I think that's right. As much as they want to see Royce have success, they want to make sure his process is in a good place, not just that he's crushing AAA mistakes. Results alone won't get him back up. There's enough guys in AAA that throw real gas, and they're going to want to see that he can catch up to it again and hit fastballs, not just punishing a hanger. Get into a repeatable swing doesn't vary from game to game let alone AB to AB. But probably good for his confidence to crush a couple. I'm not going to get excited about Quinn McDaniel until he gets up to AA and starts doing this; this is his 3rd spin at high A as a college bat and he struggled mightily at the plate the last two seasons. Good for him if he's unlocked something, but right now it's a good 2 weeks for a dude beating up on younger pitchers. Pretty happy with what we're seeing from Amick, though; this is much more like the guy we saw before he got hurt in 2025 and it's nice to see the power coming through. Wouldn't mind seeing more contact right now, but the walk rate is good and he's doing what he needs to do. The other key for him will be showing he can hold up over a full season, so we'll see. But a nice re-start for him after a brutal AFL. Impressed with Mendez taking 3 walks. Easy for a guy who is hitting like he is to start swinging away, thinking that he'll nail whatever it is, so maintain a good approach and taking the walks on offer is a good thing. Would love it if he turns out to be a real guy for this franchise. He's definitely taken a step forward since coming over here from Philly...could it be that the Twins developmental staff actually helped him improved? (gotta be careful about saying anything nice about the Twins developmental staff; it's basically all people from the Falvey Era...)
  12. jmlease1
    I don't know if that's necessarily true; with the various injuries to Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Roden there's probably just been more playing time available in the OF. Wouldn't be surprised if he gets some more time there later this season. He's certainly hitting like he wants a look in MLB, which is great to see. I know it's just A-ball and he's still just a kid, but holy cow Quentin Young's glove looks pretty bad so far. 16 errors in 36 games this season? Good grief. Congrats to GG on the promotion to MLB! Even if it's only a cup of coffee for now, he made it.
  13. jmlease1
    I think that's about right. Fedko has more upside defensively (he can credibly play CF, whereas Garlick was more of a "break glass" type there) and Garlick couldn't stay healthy...but as a hitter that would actually be a useful comp, a RH bat who can mash LHP. That's a useful player But I just don't see the Twins mucking around with their 40-man right now to see if Fedko can be Garlick. But if he keeps hitting, he might get a chance. Might have had more of a chance if we hadn't kept rolling the dice on Outman, but it is what it is.
  14. jmlease1
    I think Fedko has some potential, but hard to say he's been treated badly. AAA is the first time that he hasn't needed a second try at a level to have success in his professional career. It's the first time he's had success when he wasn't older for the level. and despite his hot start in AAA in 2025, he struggled in his last month there. And it's notable that he passed through the Rule 5 draft. Would I like to get a look at Fedko this season? Sure, why not if he keeps hammering the ball like this. Defensively Outman is probably a bit better (certainly more experienced) and might be a touch better as a runner too, but could Fedko fill that role? I think he could, and this is where you see how much value 40-man roster spots have. If Fedko were on the 40-man, he might be getting that shot. Unfortunately of the OF guys on the 40-man are 2 are lefthanded and unavailable, 1 is LH and getting his first taste of AAA, and the last one is RH and struggling in his first full season in AAA. To me, this is why keeping Outman was such a mistake at the outset. While it looks less bad with Roden getting injured, the Twins have a glut of OF on the 40-man and no room to add someone like Fedko without DFAing someone. To me, DFAing Outman isn't much of a loss if he goes to another organization and isn't much of a risk either...but the Twins clearly feel different.
  15. jmlease1
    whoops! forgot about his rehab when I peeked at his Saints stat line this morning. He's definitely not getting recalled for Gray's paternity leave then.
  16. jmlease1
    With Arcia & Kreidler both up there's plenty of room to add an OF for Gray's paternity leave, so I'd look at Mendez, who is having no trouble with AAA pitching so far. I'm not really sure what benefit there is to calling up Royce, who has barely been at Saint Paul and after hitting 2 homers he might think he's back and deserves to stay, rather than get sent back again when Gray returns, and now you have A Thing. Mendez can get a cup of coffee now and you have to think he'd get a look this season regardless (even if it might normally be september) so you're not really burning an option for nothing. Congrats to Olivar on the promotion to AAA! He should get a long look to see if he can keep catching and I'm looking forward to seeing how he adapts to a new level of competition. He was someone that was looked at a lot previously as being a big upside guy and fell off a bit, but seems to be back on track. He's not getting a promotion just because they need catching in Saint Paul: he deserves it based on production.
  17. jmlease1
    There's increasing West Coast Bias too, but regardless the media loooooves to try and pry star players out of smaller markets. Look at what's going on with Ant & the Wolves. Zero indicators that he's unhappy in MN, his team has been quite good over the last 3 seasons, but because the Wolves lost in the playoffs you have multiple media members talking up trades to "get him out of MN". (none of these trade ideas are good in any way for the Wolves, of course) It's the same thing with any of the trade ideas being floated for Buxton or Ryan right now.
  18. jmlease1
    Might be a good time to get him up to AAA and dig in on his ability to keep playing catcher. His primary position might be "hitter", but is he can even be acceptable at catcher, finding out now would be great, and there will be playing time in Saint Paul
  19. jmlease1
    Love seeing Tait park one. I think he's doing just fine for being 19 at high A. He's what, like 2 years younger than anyone else on the roster? Good to see DeBarge get one too; he's had a rough season at the plate so far, needs some success. Looking at the Wichita roster, I've noticed Olivar is having a nice year so far; he's mostly fallen off the map, but dude has shown a big power plus-up this season and should get strong consideration of a promotion around midseason if he keep whacking the ball like this. Would not complain about him making a leap.
  20. jmlease1
    That dirty SOB. How dare he be rewarded for ceaseless work , quality writing, and actual humor in covering the Twins! :P
  21. jmlease1
    Twins offense is at it's best this season when they're grinding out walks. When they're putting together 4-5 baserunners via the free pass it's been doing good things for them. When they're up there hacking it's been much less reliable. Lee & Martin are both struggling right now, despite Brooks getting the triple. Nice job from Zebby after giving up the dinger; he settled down and got the job done. Nice job by Adams & Banda as well. Tough loss. Finding offense is going to be more challenging without Jeffers, who has been consistently dangerous all season. Need to see more from Keaschall, Martin, Lee, and Larnach.
  22. jmlease1
    Okert is just a reminder how so many veteran relievers are fungible assets that you shouldn't invest real money in. He's been solid enough for Houston, just like he was in Miami. He "stunk" with the Twins because in a small sample in 2024 he simply couldn't get RH batters out. Normalize his splits a little more and suddenly he's a perfectly acceptable LHP in the bullpen who is annihilating LH hitters and getting thumped by RH hitters, but not destroyed by them. There's a reason he's playing on a $2M contract. He'd very likely be doing the exact same things if he was still with the Twins, but fans would have lost their minds if they'd brought him back after 2024.
  23. jmlease1
    It hasn't worked out well so far, but we didn't exactly lose much: Polanco was expensive and there was little market for him. Before Topa imploded this season the deal wasn't that far off even, making it a minor move. Polanco was bad enough that he had almost no offers and took a significant pay cut in his free agency year. (congrats to the Mets for massively overpaying him; he's been bad and now is hurt) You seem to have some expectation that Polanco had a lot more value than he did; this wasn't Jorge from 2021, who played at an all-star level, this was a guy getting more expensive, while playing less.
  24. jmlease1
    I don't think anyone really expected a quick return to form for Wallner, so probably not much of an indicator...yet. We'll see: maybe he gets it together or maybe he simply can't catch up to fastballs any longer. at 28. But at least the Twins have properly sent him down to AAA to figure it our, which is the same for Royce. They both got extended looks this season, both had an excuse that maybe bought them some additional time (Wallner was exposed to too many LHP, Royce had an injury that put him on the shelf for a bit) but both have been not just bad at the plate but looked entirely lost. I appreciate the fact that the Twins didn't wait until June (or later) to make some of these calls. I like to think that if Rodriguez was healthy they would have pulled the pin on Outman as well by now, especially with Wallner's performance. be interesting to see what Arcia brings: he should be at least solid defensively at 3B and it seems impossible for him to hit less. Mostly a platoon with Gray? Maybe give Keaschall some breaks at 2B? Lineup is missing some thump with Jeffers out, so really need Buxton back.
  25. jmlease1
    That's just made up math. It's -1.4 bWAR, because Topa has really sucked this season. Going into the year it was -0.8 bWAR with GG still to play out. You simply can't honestly count Polanco's second season with Seattle, where he signed as a free agent, against the trade. Hells bells, why not count Polanco's rotten season (and terrible contract) to date with the Mets?!?
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