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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    There's so much that goes into scouting, drafting, and development that fans never see that it's very difficult to assess outside of very broad categories like: all-star successful MLB career made it to the majors advanced in the minors but never broke through bust Figuring out exactly WHY a player landed in these kinds of categories? Not sure anyone can say for sure with any real accuracy...which is part of the problem. Twins have had a problem in translating top prospects into consistent MLB producers in recent years under the Falvey regime. They've had a lot of highly rated guys that have made it to MLB but not been able to sustain it, and some who have never really made it in MLB at all for more than maybe a cup of coffee. But it was a real issue for the end of the Ryan II Era as well. I don't know if Deron Johnson was "the problem", but we're kind of at the stage where they have to keep trying new things, getting in new voices, maybe investing more resources in order to get different results. Because it's a huge problem if the team keeping getting prospects to a point where they're seen as Top 100 guys...and then can't turn them into the next wave of MLB regulars. Of course, if Culpepper, Jenkins, and Rodriguez all work out with Lee taking another step forward and Lackey or Houston showing up ahead of schedule while Bradley, Preilipp, and Matthews form a new rotation core...then the perception of developmental problems changes rather drastically, doesn't it?
  2. jmlease1
    He didn't. But can we not go down that road? If Jenkins ends up hitting like Mauer he'll be a Hall of Famer, regardless of where the ball goes.
  3. jmlease1
    Too difficult a name to spell? I would have ranked him higher for sure. Quick had a good season and the projection on him is good, but he struggled enough at AA that he's not the best choice if it's based purely on performance. If you're trying to make the list look good later...
  4. jmlease1
    Taj has had a very nice season. He still has these stretches where he's throwing uncompetitive pitches as his control wobbles, but he's done a pretty good job of pulling it back together when it happens. If he can refine that a little more, figure out a way to get into his groove at the start of a game rather than needing an inning to settle in, he'll be really dangerous. The stuff is nasty, and you have to love his ability to get deeper into games. Having starting pitching that can go 6 or 7 innings is quite valuable and Taj has shown he can do that. 18 starts this season where he went at least 6, Game Score over 60 in 16 starts. That's a front-line starter to me. SF used their entire bench last night; only 2 players finished last night's game with an OPS over .700; 6 of them have an OPS under .600. That is not a good lineup.
  5. jmlease1
    It's good for LH relievers? But yeah...not a lot else.
  6. jmlease1
    Twins should probably move on from Royce, and certainly shouldn't be promising him anything in terms of a position for next year. But if he stays on the roster, whether he plays 2B or 1B depends on the twins ability to find a higher ceiling player to slot in at 2B or 1B. If they ended up with Ty France (which is a high-risk move, but if this season is for real then he's worth the pile that he's going to get), then Royce can compete for 2B, especially since Clemens should never hit against a LHP, ever. If they can get a significant upgrade at 2B, then Royce plays 1B. If Royce stays with the Twins, he's a fallback, not a building block. 3B should be out of the question, for sure. Lee did well defensively after moving there and has shown enough improvement with the bat to get another chance. But there's little show that Royce can be a starting quality player at this point. Time for a change of scenery. He's going to end up getting $5M in arbitration, and I'm tired enough of the Royce Rollercoaster that I'd rather not pay it. He's been at his healthiest this season; the last time he was close to playing in this many games was before he blew out his knee the first time. I've been rooting for him for a long time, I've told people we needed to be patient. But he's too streaky at the plate and it seems increasingly clear that without superior athleticism, he simply can't sustain his play for more than a short stretch.
  7. jmlease1
    I'd make Jeffers the QO. I'd even try to sign him to a 3 year deal (I think he can hit well enough to transition to 1B/DH if and when Lackey is ready, so I'm not worried about 2028 and beyond.), but I think someone like the Yankees is going to give him 5 for $100M and I highly doubt the Twins will compete at that level. I'm ready to move on from Bell, Lewis, Larnach, and Martin. Bell doesn't produce enough for his salary and roster spot, Lewis has run out of chances, and while Larnach is good enough hitter against RHP, he's unplayable against LHP and adds nothing on defense or the bases and we shouldn't be paying him another raise for that level of production and his roster spot. Martin is more marginal; the cost is fine and as a platoon bat facing LHP he's probably fine since he should be a good defender in the corners and give you potential on the bases...but the ceiling is too limited and the roster spot too valuable. I'd be much happier with Clemens in a bench role than a starter, but I think we're seeing him back next season at 2B. Can we sign a real 1B next season? France makes a ton of sense, but a) who knows whether this was a fluke season or not, and b) what's his price range now? Is someone going to give him a big number for 4-5 years? But that's the level of player I want them pushing in on at 1B...assuming France is for real. (I'm less enthusiastic about Arraez, who has been poor since going to Philly and making the early season run in SF look flukier) There's not a ton of options that look to be on the market, and several are the same guys that were available last season (and proving how dumb I can be, ones I wanted over Bell were utter disasters this season in Andujar & Mountcastle). We might be better off turning everything over to the kids for reinforcements in the lineup and spending money on pitching. Pay Minter (there's a lot of FA LH RP available), sign a RHP (Bryan Abreu?) or 2 and go from there.
  8. jmlease1
    I liked the Minter trade at the time and I still like it; neither prospect projects all that well. While I was rooting for Amick, he's got serious contact issues. (a good couple of weeks in AA for the Mets got the hype train moving for their fanbase...with the promotion to AAA is back to missing a lot and hoping to run into a homer. To be fair, he does keep hitting them, but is he a serious candidate to play 1B for them next season? No. Maybe he can keep making adjustments but he's still not profiling to do more than get a cup of coffee in MLB) Re-signing Minter would be great for the Twins, and hopefully his price is reasonable enough. Seems unlikely that he's getting another multi-year deal at his age and with his injury history, but he can still get guys out so we'll see what the market looks like. Would happily take him on a $6-8M deal, but who knows what the market will look like for him.
  9. jmlease1
    Hindsight is 20/20. How many people at the time were actually clamoring for Ty France to return? How many people were predicting that Ty France was going to have a career year at 31 and hit better than he ever has in his entire career? Santana's poor offense in 2025 would not have been well-received; we got the last good Santana season and made the correct decision not to double his salary in 2025. Solano's mediocrity was replaced more than effectively by Santana, so clearly we made the right decision there too. You can argue, purely based on utterly unexpected results, that the Twins missed on not bringing France back for another run, after trading him at the deadline. But if you can say you saw that coming, you're smarter than basically everyone in baseball because France was still job hunting on Feb 15th; if anyone blew it it was Toronto for not running it back and clearly neither they nor anyone else saw this season coming. Good for Ty France: he's earned himself a surprising pay day...do you want to pay it and hope this isn't a fluke season? Polanco got 2 years and $40M to play 1B for the Mets and that deal has been a disaster so far. You wanna give France 3 for $55M? If enough people think this season wasn't a fluke, it'll be 3 for $75M.
  10. jmlease1
    Short answer: No. Longer answer: While Bell was ok this season and certainly had some big moments, he didn't hit well enough to make him worth investing the salary nor the roster spot in overall. The signing wasn't a disaster, but it also wasn't anywhere near a clear win. It was...ok-ish. Bell basically can't play the field any longer, so in order to be worth the money and the roster spot (and both have significant value) Bell has to hit better than this. You need him to hit more like he did in 2021 or 2022. Well, 4 seasons have passed since 2022 and this is basically the hitter he is now, and that's not worth paying real money for if you're the Twins. There's little chance he'll be significantly better at 34 than he has been for the rest of his 30's. He was good from June on, but April & May count too. We can't really afford to out-wait the Josh Bell slow start. No to bringing back Bell. We need the budget to invest in a higher ceiling, and we probably need to the roster spot to rotate through Buxton, Keaschall, and the young OF who need ABs. I'm not sure if there's anyone who will be available, but I'd rather take money saved from not paying Bell & Lewis (and digging some cash out of the Pohlad purse) and signing a 1B with a higher ceiling, preferably RH, while planning an OF of Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez and whomever needs a day off in at DH. Hard to make that work with Bell, and he's not really worth the money.
  11. jmlease1
    They're not going to. He isn't eligible for post-season play with them if they did. Why would they pick up his salary to not play the last 6 games of the season as insurance? To spite the Twins, who probably don't care that much? To try and give a small segment of the Twins fanbase some additional sand to kick in the front-office's face? I would have preferred they move Royce to the IL so there's a clear path for Sabato to play more, but this will be fine.
  12. jmlease1
    Clearly below average? Are you sure? Maybe Minter is unlikely to return, but Minter plus RHP TBD along with a full season of Hoffman along with the rest of the crew is at least a league average bullpen with potential upside. The only way it's "clearly below average" is if you let recency bias determine your opinion for 2027 on guys like Gomez and Morris, presume that Sands can't bounce back after surgery, that the Twins can't sign a decent RHP (not won't; my formulation presumes that they will here), and that someone like Funderburk will be ineffective/injured. If you assume worst-case scenarios, the Twins bullpen will be clearly below average, I guess.
  13. jmlease1
    That would cover it. Give Lewis some cover for his dreadful slump (and I know that's going to make some people mad, who will be all "screw that guy, he sucks!" but this is part of the man-management good organizations do, even if they're done with Royce and ready to move on from him. Having a track record of treating vets with respect matters when you're signing guys). I'll be interested to watch how Sabato plays at 1B; he's never had a particularly good defensive reputation, but I've rarely seen him play the field so would be fun to see what he looks like out there. I'm rooting for Sabato! My expectations are low, but I'm rooting for the dude. (it does occasionally feel like some people are rooting against him simply because they want another Falvey pick to fail because they hate Falvey just that much; I hope people don't take it out on Sabato based on who drafted him...)
  14. jmlease1
    Funderburk's status depends a fair amount on what the Twins decide to do with Minter; if they re-sign him to be their primary LHP out of the bullpen then it's not too difficult to keep Funderburk as your second LHP and let him keep working on consistency and see if he can hold up to the workload. It's just tough to expect that Funderburk can be your primary LHP. I would like them to keep Minter, but who knows what his expectation is for a contract or what his market looks like. I would think that at his age and with his injury history he won't be looking at another 8 figure AAV contract, but it's hard to know what the market will be like. Sands is really a question about how his velocity is returning from surgery. If his velocity was down because of the injury to the elbow and comes back now that he's gone under the knife and rehabs it, then he's a guy that you should look to as part of the bullpen. But if the velocity isn't there, then he's got a problem. But based on what his salary is going to be, and having an option...I think you can slot him in if you're feeling confident in his recovery. It's true there are only so many slots in the bullpen...but there are 8 of them. Right now, Hoffman is the only one who has one for sure. Gomez & Morris have both wobbled down the stretch, but their overall body of work this season in MN says you should give them a look. So that's 3 of 8. If we bring back Minter, that's 4. Add Funderburk and Sands, and we're at 6. That still leaves room to sign a RH reliever with real velocity, while maybe slotting Adams or Nance into the last slot. Gomez, Hoffman, RHP TBD, Minter, Sands, Morris, Funderburk, and Adams/Nance is a professional bullpen out the gate. (I'd leave Gomez in the "closer" role and deploy Hoffman as the fireman, but YMMV) Cole Sands as your 4th or 5th best guy out of the bullpen looks pretty dang good if his velocity is back. Funderburk is quite reasonable as your second lefty.
  15. jmlease1
    Hey, good for him. I don't know that a handful of games will tell us that much or that this is a real change in how the Twins are thinking about him, but it's a nice reward for a guy who has ground his way up the ranks and worked hard to shed the "bust" label. Maybe he shows something. Maybe it's a bit of a showcase to see if there's a trade out there. Maybe it's just a reward to a guy who had a very good minor league season and has been in the system for quite a while. Probably a combo of all three? Regardless, I'm happy for him. With Royce mired in another terrible slump, Clemens being better suited to 2B, Bell being a DH (and likely gone in the offseason), there's an opportunity at 1B and for a RH power hitter. Why not take a peek at Sabato? My expectations aren't high, but I'd much rather give him the look than not.
  16. jmlease1
    I had hopes for Lewis when he came back from the minors and was on fire. he seemed to be settling in at 1B (sure, there were some misplays, but he looked like he would play pretty well at 1B and he seemed to be getting better there with a nice upside defensively). But he's mired in another horrible slump and I just don't think the Twins can keep giving him chances any longer. It's a shame, because the talent was always there. But injuries ruined the early part of his MLB career, and now that he seems to have finally put that mostly behind him he's lost some of the supreme athleticism that made him a potential star and combined with poor plate discipline he's just not a starting quality player. Time to move on, I'm afraid. Lee is quite interesting, and I think he's earned the 3B job for 2027. I think it's notable that he's made real improvement at the plate each season he's been in MLB, and it's certainly possible that there's more left to come. Maybe he won't get there, but things like pitch recognition and developing more patience at the plate are things that can grow through experience, and that's where Lee's biggest deficit is as a hitter right now. Did we expect him to turn into more of a power hitter, from his minor league track record? No. But he's found that as a way to succeed in MLB and combined with quality defense at 3B he looks like a solid starter. I like that he's improved his BA, OBP, and SLG every season in MLB and he seems to have put his health concerns behind him and looks like someone you can count on. We'll see whether there's another 15-20 points of OBP in his approach? Frankly, if he can get his RH swing back to where it was in 2025 it'll make all the difference. Was not surprised to see Jenkins have a good series against the Angels (who are not a bad pitching team, really). You have to give rookies time to adjust. Looks like he got there. Hope he finishes strong and lets people feel confident about his future next season. Keaschall can hit, but I still don't understand why they're playing him in RF, especially now that they have benched Larnach (and that's what it was; if they were still in contention he'd almost certainly still be playing. They just gave him the rest of the season off in a way that lets him keep some pride). Everything about him says "LF", but Shelton is proving to be quite stubborn.
  17. jmlease1
    Gomez has really fallen apart, but it's a little tough to argue it's overwork when he's still only thrown 64 innings. Wonder if there's a mechanical issue, but regardless he's been quite poor with only 1 good game in his last 5 outings. That's not good enough. But again do you rate him based on 4 crap games at the end of the season or the fuller body of work for the season? The frustrating thing about this collapse is it calls into question his viability for next season and the last thing we need is more question marks. How about Walker Jenkins, though? After only getting 4 hits in his first 15 games, he's now had 8 in his last 3 and looking much more like the Prospect That Was Promised. Nice to see him figuring things out a bit and adapting. That's what the dregs of this season are for at this point. Disappointing loss, but guess it helps the tank for a pick. Really ready for this season to be over. Only reason to watch is to see the kids play, and every time the Twins have to tun to someone like the truly washed Rogers it becomes easy to turn the channel.
  18. jmlease1
    Unfortunately that's probably correct. I'd love for Sabato to step up and seize the job; it'd be a heck of a story of a guy drafted highly, deemed a bust who then ground his way up the minors to realize his dream. But while he's been earning his way up to AAA there's not a lot to suggest that he'd be a plus MLB hitter and he's hardly great at 1B. (He's not terrible, and makes the basic plays, but he's slow and not exactly nimble. Royce has a higher defensive ceiling at 1B after half a season at the position.) I think Mendez might be the best long-term shot the Twins have in their system right now, but it's not a position of strength and hasn't been for quite some time. There's a real argument our best bet to fill 1B might be Winokur or Tinney, and Winokur hasn't played the position yet (but has the athleticism to play CF still) and is only in AA and Tinney just got drafted and is in low A.
  19. jmlease1
    Larnach is in almost the same position that Eddie Rosario was when the Twins non-tendered him. In Larnach's case there's even less potential upside; he's older, he's never been particular good defensively, and he simply cannot hit LHP. Rosario was better against LHP (still not good), had been a good fielder (that was basically done by the time the Twins non-tendered him though), and was a year younger. But they made the correct decision and moved on from Rosario, who outside of a hot 2 months for the stretch run for Atl was never a starting quality player again and is out of the league. He's a decent hitter who offers nothing else and is unplayable against LHP. The odds the Twins commit $7-8M to that player when they have loads of young OF talent seems highly unlikely. I would expect them to do the same thing to Larnach that they did to Rosario: try and trade him and when they find no buyers for his limited skill set, non-tender him. Someone will then sign him to be a platoon bat for roughly what he's making this season or less, but it won't be the Twins because even if they wanted him back at a lower price, pride always gets in the way and he'll almost certainly take a job anywhere else rather than take a pay cut for the Twins. (this is true of almost every team; it's not unique to the Twins)
  20. jmlease1
    Matthews is having an interesting season. When he's on, he can look really good and shut down lineups. When he's off it can get ugly very quickly. Looking at his last 5 games (from oldest to newest) we've got Game Scores of 67, 74, 46, 31, and 74. Two of his best games have been against playoff teams; one of his worst is against one of the teams in the exact same position as the Twins. He's definitely improved over last season, but he's still got things he needs to improve if he wants to be in the rotation. The home-away splits are likely just small sample noise; he was neutral on those splits last season and there's nothing specific about him that says he's likely to continue to be so much better at home vs the road, but it's the LH/RH splits that are the most concerning. He still gets raked by LH hitters too often and needs to find a way to get those guys out more often or he'll end up in the bullpen. He's been good at keeping the ball in the park against RH batters, but against LH batters it's too many hits, too many walks, too many hard-hit balls. Very nice outing against the hated Yankees. Hopefully he goes into the lab in the offseason and looks for an answer to the lefties.
  21. jmlease1
    Getting rid of Buxton won't make you any happier about the franchise. I guarantee you'll end up mad at the return they got for him, mad that they're not spending money on someone else, mad that he's playing well for someone else, mad at someone else's injury etc. Try to make peace with the fact that it's going to be hard to keep Buxton healthy enough to play more than 100 games or so, but that he'll be very damn good while he does it (that the Twins should have plenty of OF talent to cover for him if he misses extended time again)
  22. jmlease1
    Considering Rodriguez has to be on the 26-man next season and they're likely to give Jenkins every chance to win a job as well, there's very little chance Larnach is back. Keep in mind, Zoll tried to trade Larnach at the deadline. Again, why exactly does Zoll want to bring Larnach back? Maybe we'll see Ober back, but as disappointing and frustrating as Ober has been, and as concerning as his loss velocity is...Ober actually has the second highest bWAR of any pitcher on the roster. Kreidler is a utility guy who will likely be competing with Ben Ross to keep his job. He ain't the reason the Twins are out of contention, and if he's back on the roster it'll hardly be a disaster. But we have little idea about what Zoll will do to the roster under Tom Pohlad's ownership and having a full off-season in which to work. We don't know what the payroll budget is going to be, we don't know who will be available, we don't know what the market will be like. We don't know if they're going to commit to young players in the OF...but it sure seems likely since Keaschall seems to be off the dirt, Rodriguez can't go back to AAA in 2027, and they love Jenkins (who might need to make some adjustments in AAA, but also might just need to work in the offseason and keep playing in MLB).
  23. jmlease1
    Why would Zoll re-sign Bell? The idea that Wallner will be back is very unlikely; even Wallner himself is saying he's going to be somewhere else. This seems like just another blind "I hate the front office!" post. Boring.
  24. jmlease1
    You're just wrong about Lewis & Clemens: Royce was perfectly fine defensively at 3B, and outside of inexperience looks fine at 1B too. His problem is being too streaky as a hitter and having lengthy slumps at the plate, none of which is improved at DH. Clemens is fine at 2B, reasonable in either corner, and a break glass in case of emergency option in CF surprisingly. He fields 1B well enough (and does a nice job tracking foul balls, etc) but isn't great at receiving out there. But he's certainly not a DH-only. Yes, the defense on this roster is a problem...but the changes to the infield have improved things (and keeping Gray off the team with more experience elsewhere won't hurt) and moving on from Larnach in the OF, keeping Keaschall out of CF, and running with Jenkins and Rodriguez will help too.
  25. jmlease1
    Better than if you'd put Wallner in left! Wallner isn't quick (he can actually run faster than you might think once he gets going) and takes poor routes, but you'd much rather have him in RF where his arm at least has more value and he's less likely to hurt you as much by never getting to anything. At least some hitters stopped trying to go first to third with Wallner out there in right. Literally no one is pretending Wallner is a good defender, but putting him in RF minimized his weaknesses as much as possible (poor range) while playing up his strengths (plus arm). Yes, he was still a poor fielder: but he would have been waaaay worse in left! It's the same theory here. Keaschall could at least get up to average in left because his speed plays up better there. Even if Target Field was the only park where LF was substantially larger (it's not) he's still playing half his games there. Having a good arm is more useful in RF than in LF and has been since God was a Corporal. Keaschall doesn't have a good one, even if he can hit a cutoff man, but Jenkins & Rodriguez do have good arms. It's part of why Austin Martin was a solid LF in 2025. Sure, he covers things just fine in RF in terms of catching the ball, but he's better at covering LF than Larnach is, who would do better in RF. (Rodriguez and Jenkins are both fine OF and will do well in whatever spot we put them in; this is about trying to minimize keaschall's weaknesses so he gives away less of what he provides with his bat, because he's clearly a good MLB hitter who should be leading off for the Twins)
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