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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Reminds me of the old story from former Twins manager Ray Miller, back when he was pitching coach for Baltimore. Dave Stanhouse was on the mound, and was driving Earl Weaver crazy with walks and he yelled at Miller "just go out there and tell him to throw strikes!". Miller said he thought at the time that Stanhouse already knew that, but Earl was the boss so he trotted out to the mound. When he got there, Stanhouse sneered at him, "what are you doing here? You gonna tell me to throw strikes?" So Miller responded, "Nah, I'm just here to tell you your fly is down."
  2. jmlease1
    well, the green light still appears to be on for DeBarge? That will be fun all season. Nice job by Ellwanger. Curious to see how is control looks in this first season. He's got a live arm! Need to get some guys on track in Saint Paul.
  3. jmlease1
    It's funny that you think there's been this big organizational shift in the use of starters when the pitching coach didn't change.
  4. jmlease1
    It's sort of incredible how many LH starters we're facing to start the season.
  5. jmlease1
    first pitch strikes to 19 out of 25 batters for Abel today. That's going to improve the outcomes...
  6. jmlease1
    Gallagher is off to a nice start. Be nice if he turns out to be somebody? He'll have to watch the free passes, but everything else is going nicely so far. Liking the usage of Winokur so far this season: split between 3B and CF seems good and he could actually have a future at either, so I like seeing him work there. Think this means the SS experiment is done? I like seeing DeBarge draw a bunch of walks, but I will be watching to see where the batting average is shaping up by midseason. Solid start for him overall, and he's a guy I was skeptical of going in. Would love to be proven utterly and total wrong about him. Less thrilled with an ofer from Houston, but again: let's see where he's at with the bat around midseason. One bad game in what's been a good start isn't anything to panic over.
  7. jmlease1
    The trade I didn't love was Varland for Rojas; that was the one that was the most questionable IMHO. Considering the length of team control, the need for relievers with velocity and high-end potential...that's easily the most high-risk of the deals. We'll see how that one works out. The Jax for Bradley deal was one that I liked better from the jump. Much as I liked Jax, I definitely despised the conversation about converting him back to a starter (I think it's pretty notable that's all died out: literally only Twins fans & Jax himself ever speculated on it and I've give you all the money in my pockets against all the money in yours if Jax ever starts a game for TB as anything other than an "opener"). And as I've noted elsewhere: Jax as a reliever had 1 great season, and 3 good seasons as a reliever. He hasn't shown that he's a dominant, consistent reliever. Yes, 2025 had some strong underlying numbers that weren't matched up with results, and the stuff still looked great, but results also tell some things too, and the reality was Jax was walking more guys and giving up more hits, even as he was ringing up more K's. I think the use of Bradley's ERA after he came over to the Twins is factual, but not really descriptive of where he was as a pitcher? His Game Scores are a little more instructive, and show how much inconsistency hurt him. In the six starts, he's got 2 disasters, 1 that's a bit below average, 1 solid start and 2 very good ones. That's a pitcher who has talent and can find consistency. You look at a 6.61 ERA (which he absolutely had) and you might think "this guy is crap!", but the ERA doesn't really describe him effectively. Especially when the Twins almost certainly were less concerned with protecting him from a blow out and just wanted him to pitch some MLB innings. In his 6 starts he threw 80+ pitches in all of them, struggles or no. It's too early to be sure whether Bradley has figured it out, but it's a very nice start, and he's got the potential to be a frontline starter. He's got the stuff, he's added velocity, he's kept the ball in the park, and he's limited the free passes. If he can get a little more efficient in finishing off hitters, he's going to be going deep into games consistently as well. these are all good signs. Small samples, very early in a season. Absolutely. But also good reasons to feel positive about this trade.
  8. jmlease1
    [insert ESPN Voice] "What if I told you that a Twins roster loaded with LH hitters and who suck at facing LHP took down two top LHP in 2 games?" It's a good win, even if the bullpen wobbled with the big lead. Nice to see Ober have a good result. Definitely people around here who want to jettison him into the sun, so I'm hoping he makes them eat their words, possibly with a side of rosin. Can't complain about the offense too much, with the exception of Brooks Lee, who continues to struggle. Good to see see Buxton and Lewis with multi-hit games; be great if they were both locking in and get on a run. Buck has looked close recently, and Royce has hit the ball hard as well, so good for them to get some good results. 3 straight against Detroit and a series win going into get-away day. Why not a sweep? Why the eff not?
  9. jmlease1
    I hope he can figure it out. I do love that change-up.
  10. jmlease1
    It was not unreasonable to be concerned when a college bat has a near total power outage at High A and looks dreadful at the plate. He wasn't stinging balls and just getting unlucky: he looked legitimately bad. Sure, it's a small sample, but it was cause for concern. (and the K rate at Cedar Rapids was slightly above 20%, and a big jump from Ft. Myers) He's off to an excellent start so far, and if he continues to show he can do damage when given a good pitch to drive, then he'll be in good shape. Interesting to see Amick off to a hot start; I wasn't sure he was going to get promoted to AA after fighting injuries and falling off in the second half last season, and then looking atrocious in the AFL. But he's responded nicely and I'll be interested to see where his season ends up. Don't mind him splitting time between 3B and 1B at all, either.
  11. jmlease1
    I think we're allowed to feel some positivity over Bradley. I don't think most people are saying "mission accomplished", but Bradley has never had a start to his season this good before. The fact that he's kept the ball in the park is an encouraging sign, and while he's had a three game stretch like this before...it's been unusual. People have also overrated how good Jax was: he had 1 dominant season as a reliever (2024) and 3 others where he was a quality reliever, but hardly elite. last season we spent a lot of time talking about how unlucky Jax was, and how the results weren't matching the underlying numbers...but the reality was, Jax was more hittable in 2025 and looked a lot more like the dude from 2022 or 2023 than 2024, even if his K numbers were elite. I'm sure Jax's performance will improve, but he also might just a good but not elite reliever.
  12. jmlease1
    Sometimes the change of scenery matters. Communication styles aren't meshing or the messages start sounding like Miss Othmar from Peanuts. And while TB may be a well-run organization that's been very skilled at trading away players at the right time and finding assets in other organizations, it doesn't mean they don't have their own patterns and ways of doing business that can't be exploited by teams who are taking a different angle. It's why you should never be afraid to trade with a team simply because of their reputation (I've seen people say you shouldn't trade with the Dodgers because they're "too smart" as well): everyone misses things, and players that struggle under one plan could succeed under a different design. It sounds like TB wanted him to move off his splitter, and from what we've seen of it here in MN, it's a real weapon. That could be based on organizational philosophy in TB, or it could be the coaches working with Bradley here in MN were better able to make the adjustments with him needed to make it that weapon. You never know about fit. And sometimes a trade really focuses things for a player and changes their attitude and focus about their career.
  13. jmlease1
    A very nice win. Props to the Twins offense for working counts and really making Skubal work (and he was definitely not very comfortable in the cold weather; he even got a pitch clock violation because he was spending so much time trying to keep his hand warm). Bradley looked really good, again. His stuff is excellent, the pitch mix is strong...as long as he's commanding his pitches and finishing off batters efficiently then he's a really good pitcher. Seems like there might be a little bit of a shift in bullpen usage for the Twins: they appear to be more interested in matchups vs having a pitcher start an inning "clean" this season? This may be tied to having more LHP in the bullpen, maybe it's just a bit of a fluke, but it seems like we're seeing more guys get 2 outs to finish an inning and then come out to get one more the next inning than we used to. Curious to see how that trend goes? Twins continue to get the barrage of LH starters. Hopefully they can continue to survive it...
  14. jmlease1
    Nothing new: people buying those expensive tickets aren't bothering to show up for a frozen game with a team that doesn't look very good. But Twins aren't unique on this problem. How many parents do you think were at this game with kids out of the tiny amount that showed up? I'm guessing they didn't want to freeze their butts off either and if they did show a bunch left at the first complaint from the kids about being cold and/or bored...
  15. jmlease1
    I don't think they're that afraid of Martin/Roden covering CF; they had Martin do it once this season already. I think this is the old "don't let an asset get away for nothing" fear (they're missing that he's just not an asset), coupled with the sunk cost fallacy on Outman. It's a failure of process to be sure (and we're hardly unique on it in MLB) but I was hoping this might be one of the things that could change under Zoll. So far? Not so much. How much more rope does Outman get? Considering how we've already seen this guy be garbage last season, it doesn't feel like a hasty decision to boot him from the roster. Roden doesn't fix the issue of too many LH bats on the roster, but at least he might be able to add something.
  16. jmlease1
    A good win, but with several nervous moments. Ryan wasn't particularly sharp, but only got burned in the 4th. But as a result, he didn't go deep like you'd like to see. Lee's error wasn't great, but Ryan isn't some rookie to get flustered by one baserunner, and your best pitcher should be able to pick up your infield occasionally, right? Bigger issue was 101 pitches through 5. That's not efficient enough in finishing guys off. But he kept us in the game. Dodged a huge bullet with Funderburk's walks; he was definitely off and was missing the plate by a lot. Props to Laweryson for slamming the door. Nice to see the offense come alive. 10 hits and 7 walks had better get you a W. Was worried it was going to be a WTF game when they loaded the bases with 1 out in the 2nd and couldn't get a run, but they did a bit better with some timely hitting. Good to see Lewis have a smart game with 2 walks and a hit, Buck was swinging the bat pretty well, Wallner and Larnach both had 2 hits which was good as well. Outman, on the other hand...yikes. Finally gets another start, does nothing with it. Only 9 games, but he looks lost at the plate. As much as I look to have been wrong about Larnach so far, I've been right about Outman being trash. Bring up Roden and give him some real run. I'm pretty sure Outman passes through waivers if for some reason the Twins feel inclined to keep him.
  17. jmlease1
    for us (a team that's going nowhere this year) I suppose that's true, but for a title hopeful, they're going to need more than just solid production vs RHP to make adding Larnach (as opposed to someone else) worth making the move for. I'd say building up Larnach for a trade is the best we can hope for here. Yes, he can help the Twins this year over some of the other current LH bats on the roster, but he has little to no future here and there's a real question of whether an average Larnach season comes close to the kind of production we could get from one of the many prospect options his roster spot is blocking. It also doesn't matter if Jeffers, Lee, and Lewis are hitting under .200 as it pertains to Larnach's spot on the roster: Larnach can't play catcher, SS, or 3B. It doesn't even matter much that Outman or Buxton can't buy a hit, since Larnach can't play CF either. And since we've never seen Larnach play 1B, Clemens (unsurprising) struggles at the plate don't matter than much for him either. If you want to argue for Larnach over Wallner, I guess you can (there's no shortage of people who will jump on the anti-Wallner bandwagon, so you won't be alone), but Wallner has a stronger track record.
  18. jmlease1
    I think it's more about making sure they keep Arcia ready to play in MLB if they need an early-season call-up in the infield and aren't ready to put that on Culpepper than worrying about keeping Arcia happy. I suspect they would prefer to call up Culpepper when they think he has both the opportunity and readiness to stick in MLB if he performs, rather than bounce him up and down. So far I think they've handled Culpepper pretty well: 8 games, he's gotten 5 starts at SS, 2 at 3B, and 1 at 2B. While I think he's likely to come up at SS, I don't mind seeing him get some reps at other spots in the INF to see how he handles it and to keep his bat in the lineup. He's doing everything right (again). Team has to be pleased with his development. There was a fair case to be made for him to start the season in AA (he only played 59 games there last season, and had 139 games as a pro, total, going into 2026), but the Twins have been aggressive in promoting him and he's responded incredibly well to the challenge. Hope he keeps it up!
  19. jmlease1
    It depends on how he does; if he's healthy and mashing against RHP then there could be a nice market from a playoff team looking to shore up a weakness with a platoon bat. (and while Larnach hasn't been good in the OF the last couple of seasons, if he's healthy he's not going to embarrass anyone out there. Teams have played worse OF) The problem with Larnach has been he hasn't actually mashed RHP enough: a career OPS of .762 vs RHP doesn't exactly excite anyone. If he's still in the .850 range at midseason, the value proposition on him changes. But you're right that it is a very small sample, and it shows some of the limitations of this roster: only 16 PA's in 7 games is tiny, and it's hard to make an impact if you can't get on the field more often. Maybe the cavalcade of LH starters will subside and we'll see more Larnach?
  20. jmlease1
    Nice to see a bunch of guys hitting in Cedar Rapids. Frankly, a pretty good day for most of the top prospects across the system. Morris didn't go deep, but was otherwise effective. Hope this fast start for Houston is a sign that his off-season work has been effective and he's making the necessary adjustments to succeed at the plate. I'll admit I've been skeptical about his bat, and I'd love to be wrong because the glove is legit. Nice to see him rip a homer; I don't need him to be a power hitter or anything, just enough of a threat that pitchers can't groove fastballs on him when they get down in a count because they know he can't do any damage to them. Quick start at the plate for Winokur, which is good as well. He's been wobbly at 3B so far, and you do wonder if his future really is in the OF, so it's good he's also playing CF. But I don't mind him splitting time between 3B & CF right now.
  21. jmlease1
    SWR did well at least? I'm still a fan of his, and right now he's looking like the hard-luck starter, which is a bummer. Camineiro's dinger was one that few hitters can do, and most good hitters wouldn't have swung at that pitch let alone golfed it out. Always nice to see Wallner crack one. Too bad no one else really showed up on offense. Serious indictment of Outman for him not to get the start in CF, IMHO. Wondering if the front office and the manager on the same page regarding him? (I'm not complaining if Shelton is refusing to start him) Tough job by the bullpen, but when the offense is this somnolent expecting them to hold thing down forever is unrealistic. That said...yeesh, Topa.
  22. jmlease1
    Abel is definitely reminding everyone that spring training stats mean nothing. I wouldn't send him down yet, though. I'd like to see how he does with warmer weather and show him a little more faith. It's not like this is a team that anyone should expect to be in the playoffs, and it's definitely not a playoff team if younger players aren't contributing, so this is a time to give a player like Abel more leash. The roster construction really doesn't give this team much room for error against LHP. It's not great. Outman certainly isn't helping (though his replacement options aren't going to help against LHP much) and I think it's notable how little he's actually playing. Only 1 start (and that was because of injury) and 20 innings. I'd say even the Twins staff knows that he's not a real player. Probable black mark on Zoll for keeping him on this roster, and we're almost certainly stuck with him through at least april unless he gets a mystery injury like the legendary NBA "sore back" trick.
  23. jmlease1
    So far two guys I didn't want on the roster are playing pretty well: Larnach and Gray. It's early, but Twins are looking like they knew what they were doing in keeping those two. We'll see if it holds? Ober is concerning. His changeup was great and the sweeper is very effective, but I just don't know if he can eat up enough innings with this version of his fastball, which is more of a medium ball right now. Maybe when the weather warms up a bit? We'll need the other guys in the rotation to go deeper in games if this ends up being where Ober is I'm afraid. Caminero is having a rough start to it for TB; feels like they changed that second error to hit for Keaschall on some kind of mercy rule so that he might not lead SportsCenter with a "guess who had 7 errors in 7 games!" He's poor fielder (18 errors last season! yikes) but this is brutal.
  24. jmlease1
    Excited to see how Tait progresses this season. Cedar Rapids is the right place for him to be right now, and it'd be fun if he develops right along with some of those high upside starters they have there and follows them through the minors. A battery of Dasan Hill to Eduardo Tait would be sweet! I'm not too worried about where his CS numbers are in A-ball; even with a plus arm it's hard to judge when the pitchers aren't really working on holding runners on. Hopefully he has some good progress receiving and blocking pitches and refines his approach at the plate. I'd have no complaints with him spending the season in Cedar Rapids and moving to AA next year. Dude is young and catching is hard.
  25. jmlease1
    A reminder to take minor league awards and stolen base totals with a grain of salt. possibly an entire block. At least one prospect evaluator was not particularly enamored of his D last season, and A-ball pitchers don't hold runners (and A-ball catchers frequently don't have rifles for arms, they have shotguns...)
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