jmlease1

My problem with the FanGraph ratings is they're assuming last season was the correct assessment of Odorizzi and Lynn's ability/performance when projecting their likely performance this season, rather than accounting for their total track record. Additionally, I don't love the way fWAR handles pitching; it's a metric of what they're saying the pitcher should have produced based on their peripherals, rather than what they actually did. Now, Lance Lynn was probably lucky last season, considering the difference between his ERA and his FIP. But he was also coming off Tommy John and posted the worst FIP he'd ever had in the majors. So FanGraphs is projecting him to be basically that again using his career-worst FIP as the baseline but his career-average delta between his ERA and FIP as the measuring stick to get to his ERA? Ouch. That's a lot of regression to assume on a guy who is only 30. Additionally, they've assumed he'll only pitch 149 innings; since becoming a full-time starter he's never pitched less than 175. I get that they have to try to make some guessed on injury; there's no way a team gets through the year without guys missing some starts, but I can't say I love this guess. Why are they assuming Lynn throws 35 inning less than last season and Gibson 2? Odorizzi suffers in similar fashion; they're weighing last season awfully heavily on a guy who has had a solid enough track record and reportedly pitched hurt last year. Something else to consider: the difference between 16 and 21 is 1 WAR.

1996 was wonderful. 1997 was more typical Twins DH stuff: not really good enough to justify the slot. 1998 was a "you stuck around at least one year too long" season that no one remembers because he's a Hall of Famer.

It certainly looks like a rotation built less on hopes and prayers and more on talent and track record. Kyle "the Tease" Gibson still makes me nervous, but I like him a lot better as a 4th or 5th starter who has to pitch to keep his job than someone who gets handed the 3rd slot because the options they are awful. Ervin Santana isn't an "ace", but he can lead a staff. I think people tend to conflate the idea of #1 starter vs "ace" a little bit. If a guy is in the top 20 in pitching WAR among starters...isn't that a #1? If they do it a couple of years in a row, the only reason to call them a #2 is because they're not considered an "ace", the dominant starter who automatically gets looked at for the Cy. Twins will miss him the first month, but hopefully the extra time off the mound means he stays good through the whole year. Berrios has the pitches to dominate and should be a fine #2. I expect him to take another step forward this year. Lynn is a guy who has consistently put up results that would make him a fine #2 on most staffs as well; His last 3 healthy seasons have resulted in a bWAR over 3. That's the sort of performance that makes you one of the top 40 starters in baseball...sounds like a #2, doesn't it? I'm a little nervous about the transition to the AL; some guys don't handle it well. And there's no doubt he was lucky last year, but getting another year past the surgery should compensate for the luck returning to normal. Odorizzi certainly has put up good enough results in the past to be a fine #2/3 for most MLB teams; last season was his first bad one since becoming a full-time starter in the bigs and reportedly he had some nagging injury issues that limited his effectiveness. He may be the poster child for "shut it down and get healthy" rather than "battle through it", but time will tell. He finished well and if he pitches like he did in 2015 or 2016, we're going to be thrilled. That's a much better track record to ride with as your #3 guy than we've been looking at. I don't trust Gibson, but as the #4? I'm much happier than when we were hoping he'd be the #2 or #3 starter! prove me wrong, Tease. Give me the consistency we're dying for.

DH has generally been an afterthought for the Twins over the years, so it's nice to see the team grab someone like Morrison who isn't on the tail end of his career. Way too many years of guys like Ryan Doumit, Rondell White, Jose Offerman, or Robbie Grossman and the last gasps of Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, and Roy Smalley. Bad sign when an OPS+ of 115 or so counts as a "good" MN DH season.

I can live with him being the 5th guy to start the season. One last chance to see if he can go as a starter, then he moves to the bullpen and if that doesn't fly he's done. (cut or retire, I suspect) Who knows? maybe he'll get enough back to be ok.

I'm one of the ones who wonders if Rosario and Kepler should do a position swap; there's a lot of room in LF and the bigger arm plays better in RF, traditionally. but kepler has the tools to stick wherever. I think he's the player to watch this season for a breakout. It might not come together because the LHP he's facing in MLB are the best of the best, but I think he's going to do better this season, assuming he gets enough reps. I'm a Kepler guy. I want him in our OF for a long time.

wow, people are being very harsh on Polanco. Expectations really have increased for this team! I'm not saying he doesn't deserve criticism, but people are ready to toss him to the curb. He screwed up, badly. But there's a real possibility he's not lying and his real mistake was trusting the wrong people and not having a system in place to crosscheck his supplements in a way that kept him safe. That's still a bad mistake for a professional athlete to make, but even in this testing regime there are still a lot of guys who are not being all that careful with what they're taking. Hopefully this is a warning to all young players. regardless: he's paying a huge price and so is his team. It's a real shame.

CF is looking pretty solid right now. At some point going after a high ceiling prospect off an international signing or high draft pick will be a good idea to start the pipeline going again, but right now the position looks to be in great hands. It will be interesting to see how Granite responds this season. He's probably not going to crack the Opening Day roster, but he's going to be the first call to fill in the OF. It will be interesting to see if he can handle the uncertainty and if he can build on last year's success in the minors to find consistency in the majors. It would be wonderful to have a high average hitter who can be a defensive asset off the bench.

I really hope last season was the start of Rosario's path and not a fluke season. If he can make modest gains on patience while keeping the power he's really going to be a nice hitter. His defense baffles me a bit; he's got the tools to be at least an average defender out there, but he seems to be getting worse. I have to wonder if he might be better off in RF where he'd have to cover less room and his arm would still play very very well. Either way, Eddie Rosario is a very important part of the twins this season and for the next few years. But the depth at OF in the system is pretty good too. Grossman can cover for some reps (he's bad defensively too, but we can survive it), Granite has real potential as a 4th OF and I'm very excited to see what Kiriloff will do this year.

1. I sure hope so 2. Slim chance, unless he really starts killing it with the bat and Grossman falls apart and forgets how to take walks. 3. Yes. He's ahead of Pressly, Busenitz, Kinley, Moya, and Duffey at this point. Absent injury, he's in. I hope the Twins can work out a small deal to keep Kinley around if they want him, because I don't see room for him on the 25-man right now. The control just isn't there and you can't take up a roster spot with a guy you can't use on a contending team. When the Twins were losing 100 games? Sure, go ahead. Not now. I don't see any chance for LaMarre or Vargas to make this squad. Vargas is auditioning for a trade/release, and his trade value is piss-poor because everyone in MLB knows the Twins aren't keeping him. Rogers and Hildenberger were near locks before spring training started and there's nothing to suggest their stock has faded even a little. Pressly should probably be made to sweat a little because the performance hasn't lived up to the stuff, but the Twins seem committed, so why pretend he's fighting for a job against Busenitz or Duffey?

I think any time someone gets hyped as a first-ballot HoF it's going to fade back a little, because generally those sorts of comparisons are stupid. Royce Lewis still looks like a potential star. His bat is already looking great for his age and he definitely has the tools to stick at SS. I think a lot of scouts like to make statements like "I see his long term position being elsewhere" when talking about a player because it sure makes it sound like that scout knows something extra. Lewis needs reps at SS. I think he'll be just fine and will rise quickly because of his bat. He seems to have the work ethic and drive and to master the defensive side as well. For all that Gordon's standing seems to be falling in the eyes of some, he sure seems to be performing ok. He's still got work to do defensively and had a bad slump last year, but still finished with a solid season at a new level. Did I mention he's never repeated a level, despite being drafted at 18? He's always been 2-3 years younger than the average where he's been playing, and keeps having success. That's a nice track to be on. Long-term does he end up at 2B? probably, but part of that reason is because Royce Lewis will take it away from him, not necessarily because he can't hack it.

He needs to repeat 2017 to have a shot at coming back, I think. second real factor is the dollar amounts. If he's willing to play on a 2/$12M deal or something like that, I think the Twins find room for him if he can still produce at least at a 2017 level, regardless of what Morrison does, or Sano's ability to stick at 3B. If he wants $10-15M...then he'll have to find it elsewhere (which he won't, I suspect, even if he repeats 2017 production). If the production slips back again to 2016 or (gah) 2015 levels, the Twins will move on. Frankly, I suspect if Joe has a season anywhere like 2014-2016 he'll strongly consider retiring. He strikes me as the sort of guy who won't stick around if he can't produce. It might create a little roster crunch and some issues where the ABs don't string out as perfectly as you'd like, but Joe Mauer was a valuable baseball player last season. If he stays a valuable player and the money doesn't get silly...you look for a way to keep him. (not having to go with a 12-13 man pitching staff at all times would help)

I'm a little concerned that there's not another prospect that could be ready to step in at 3B in the next two years. Because I think it's fair to be concerned about Sano's ability to stick at the position or in the organization and Escobar isn't a young guy any longer. People are worried about organizational depth at catcher; I'm worried about it at 3B. Right now, none of the middle infield prospects we have starting to claw their way up the ranks look like contenders to shift over there, and our best prospect looks to be a) several years away, and hardly a sure thing. (I'm rooting like hell for Blankenhorn, but he's got some things to work on) For this season, we're in excellent shape. Next year? Two years from now? the poundage isn't the only weight resting on Sano.

I dont think it's unusual to have these hiccups in a system where you dont have the smooth pipeline at every position. I'd love to have the next version of Mitch Garver be coming off some solid time at AA and being seriously considered for promotion to AAA, but there's always a few hiccups there. Castro is set to start, Garver looks ready to be the number #1 backup and get some extra ABs against LHPs. Twins are betting that if Castro goes down for a short period of time that Garver can step up and handle it, and that's not an unreasonable bet. Lets be honest: how great is the catching depth in MLB? I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins comb the waiver wire coming out of Spring Training to shore up a little AAA depth, which is probably the right choice. I'm intrigued by Rortvedt and it'd be ideal if hes starting to press his way up the system by the time Castro's contract is up and they can swing him onto the roster the same way they are bringing Garver along.

veteran presence is pretty meaningless, I think. Grossman's OBP and ability to play (albeit poorly) in the OF is what keeps him over Vargas. Hughes has zero value in a trade right now, only way someone takes him is if we eat a big chunk of his salary and we'd probably need to dangle someone better than Vargas to get in the C-B range for prospects. We'd be lucky to get a C for Vargas straight up right now, since teams know he's likely to get cut. Frankly, if Hughes is in the package it probably reduces the value of the prospect we get even if we eat most of his salary.

I just think we should have been able to find a better insurance policy than a Erick Aybar, who hasn't hit in three years and whose defense is on the decline. And I'm completely baffled by the people who think he should be considered an option over Adrianza; there's almost no chance Aybar becomes the player he was 4 years ago again. It's much more likely he's unable to replicate even last season's modest success being on the downward plane of his fine career. Adrianza is almost 6 years younger and was a better player last year. He's much more likely to do at least as well this season than the guy who just turned 34. I'd say 3B is an area where we don't have much system depth right now.

I deeply dislike the idea that Aybar might be handed a job, because unless he suddenly starts killing it in spring training, I don't see him being anything better than replacement level, and there's decent odds he'll just flat-out suck. He can't hit enough to play anything other than SS, and his defense is slipping. Is this seriously the best insurance plan we could come up with if Sano gets suspended? I keep reading that the Twins won't need a 5th starter the first month of the season, so that makes the rotation battle very interesting. Berrios, Odorizzi, and Kyle "the Tease" Gibson (I'm going to keep flogging that nickname until Gibby puts together a consistent season again; after 2 straight seasons predicting him as ready to break out, I refuse to get fooled again) are locked. Meija vs Hughes for the 4th spot is interesting; I think Meija could win that and push Hughes into the bullpen for the start of the season as the long man, but if Hughes wins it, Meika goes to the minors to start. I think it's an 8-man (yuck) bullpen to start the season. Seth has the right suspects up there; my bet on #8 is Hughes if he's not starting or Busenitz if Hughes makes the rotation.

I'm starting to wonder if we're ranking Littell too low? http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2018/02/zack-littell-best-starting-pitching-prospect-twins-organization/ I think he's someone that's going to be really interesting to watch. Is he having outsized success because he's got a more advanced approach and control than hitters can handle at his level? Is it sustainable? I don't really care much about the W-L in the minors, but the peripherals are better than I thought. It would be fantastic if he can start just eating up innings. There are a ton of fun prospects on this list, lots of guys that are easy to root for. Sure, there's a lot of hope and dreams involved and a bunch of these guys are probably going to flame out or never reach their ceiling...but what if they don't? What if we hit a run where guys stay healthy and start maximizing their potential? there's a ton of talent here and the best part about mooning over prospects is thinking about what could be.

I love this kid. The early returns are great, and I hope his performance keeps pushing him quickly and steadily up through the system. Cedar Rapids looks like the perfect spot for him to start off this season, and we can let his performance drive when he gets moved up to Ft. Myers. but I would not be shocked if he got a spring training invite in 2020. It'll be fun to see how he tracks against Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay, since it seemed like those were the three players the Twins had been focused around (maybe Kyle Wright too?). It sort of reminds you of the 2001 draft, right? You had people back then pushing hard to take Mark Prior, the more polished pitcher who was MLB-ready or even Mark Texiera over Joe Mauer. Twins made the right then, and I hope they made the right choice this time too. Right now, nothing to suggest they made a bad call. (Looking back on the 2001 draft is kind of fun: Mauer has a small edge over Texiera and David Wright as the best players to come out of the early rounds of that draft class, and there's no question he was the right choice over Prior, who was cooked by age 25.)

I liked the move, I just don't think it moves the needle on the top end of the rotation like I (and most) were hoping. And I don't really see us grabbing Arietta, so that makes me nervous, especially with ervin missing some time at the start of the season. The price was right and he's a good pitcher when healthy...let's just hope he's healthy? Gah. I hate having to hope twins pitchers are healthy. Hasn't gone great for us recently.

If he can develop a reliable changeup, he's got a big future as a starter, I think. I'd love to see him get 150 innings or so between AA-AAA while working on that changeup and refining his control a little. I don't want him to go to the bullpen unless he flames out as a starter. Sure, it's be nice to see him flinging that gas at people in the late innings and watching people flail at the slider to close things out, but I want to see what he can do as a starter. He's got two plus pitches and if he can make a little more out of that changeup he could be an ace. Let's give him the chance.

Berra is actually a really good comp in a lot of ways. Yogi hit for more power, Joe got on base a lot more...but otherwise the biggest difference is Yogi was able to stay behind the plate longer. both started in MLB at age 21 and didn't play much (Joe injured his knee, Yogi got a cup of coffee with the '46 Yankees) but took off almost immediately thereafter. Yogi played 19 seasons and accumulated exactly 6.1 additional bWAR over Joe. The other big difference is Yogi played on one of the greatest dynasties in all sports. he was a great player who played with other all-timers and as a result he got to play in the world series 14 times. But they're not really all that far apart, and Yogi is considered an inner-ring, no-doubt HoFer and we've forgotten just how good Joe Mauer really was and is. Ted mentions other catchers who have won batting titles, and one of them is an excellent comp for Joe Mauer: Ernie Lombardi. The big man won two of them, in fact, and he and Mauer grade out pretty evenly overall on the offensive end. Of course, Lombardi did it over 17 seasons and we only have 14 for Joe, but Ernie's in the Hall (deservedly so) and Joe's got the edge on him in WAR no matter who you look at already. Both won MVPs, both were best known for their ability to hit the ball, both grounded into quite a few double plays. I think people downgrade Joe Mauer because they think we should have seen a few more years like the MVP year, that he wasn't worth the contract, that he should have somehow found a way to "carry the team"...but the reality is, he's the best player this generation of Twins fans have seen play for the team and I hope he a) has another good year, and b ) we can find a way to keep him on the club aother couple of seasons.

I like Gordon. The floor seems high, but the ceiling is uncertain. It's not a bad thing to have a few of those prospects in the top end of your system to balance out the high-ceiling lottery tickets many other prospect are. Hedging some risk against the busts keeps young players flowing into the roster. For a club like the Twins (who can't simply buy their way out of a mistake/bad luck every year), you need some of this to keep young talent consistently flowing in. Gordons hit tool justifies his ranking, I think. He looks to be a high average middle infielder with a solid OPB and his power has been increasing. There's a lot of value in that when you look around at the rest of the league. If he can improve his defensive consistency he can be a starting middle infielder for a long time. If he can't land a comfortable home, he still could likely end up as an Eduardo Nunez type guy who backs up multiple positions to get 300-400 good ABs for you every year. That would be disappointing to Twins fans considering his current ranking, but again: there's still value there and that's what I see as his floor. There's nothing that says bust on this kid; the question marks are all restrictions on his ceiling. He needs to work on his D, hitting lefties, and using his speed better. That's not unusual for a lot of minor leaguers at his age and level. He'd make a useful september call-up on his current glide path, but if he take a strong step forward this season he'll push for a lot more. Absent a trade, I expect him to be with the big club full-time in 2019.

This. Mid-20's Mauer was a monster. 3 batting titles before he was 27 as a catcher! half his career he's hit over .300 Last season was a heck of a rebound and if he can do it again and finally get his deserved Gold Glove...he'd be a heck of an asset again. Certainly worth keeping around if he wants to stay. Mauer was a HoFer in my mind before last season, because he was such a great catcher. Adding in a few additional seasons like last year just cement his place in history. But he's a truly great player.

I'm excited about Gonsalves. The makeup looks great, he's got the pitches to succeed, he just need more experience against higher levels of competition at this point. The velocity on the fastball doesn't concern me as much from a lefty; we've seen guys do just fine without needing the elite heat from that side of the plate (and its not like low 90's is slow!). If he can get the curve in shape as a useable 4th pitch hes going to have a nice arsenal to work with, and it'll give him options on a day where he's not spotting the slider/cutter as effectively. I love the changeup from him and that can be such an awesome offspeed pitch. Starting him in AAA makes sense, but I won't be shocked to see him up with the club by June.