jmlease1

Seriously? I'm not going to pretend that Nick Blackburn is some elite pitcher or anything, and the twins probably made a mistake giving him the long-term deal they did when they did...but if you don't think Nick Blackburn doesn't belong in MLB I just don't know what to tell you. His first 2 full seasons with the Twins he had an ERA+ of 103 and 109 and WAR of 2.2 and 2.8. That's a nice solid number for a back of the rotation guy. Year 3 was awful (75 ERA+ and a negative WAR), but last season was a step back in the right direction, except for the injuries. Healthy, there's no reason to believe Nick Blackburn can't put up an ERA+ of 105-110 and a WAR of 2-3. If you don't think that kind of player doesn't have a place on a big-league roster you're living in fantasyland. The same kind of analysis can apply to Luke Hughes: are we expecting him to be Dustin Pedroia? No! But the Twins 2Bs last season were dismal. It wouldn't take a lot for Hughes to be a significant improvement on what we got out of that position last year, and he seems capable of the job. Having competent, reliable, quality MLB players down the roster goes a long way towards making a team a winning ballclub. The twins aren't going anywhere if Mauer, Morneau, and Liriano don't have good, healthy seasons. But even if they do, the team isn't going to be a winning ballclub if they don't get reasonable production at 2B, CF, 3B, and the bench. (the pitching staff is another issue). Hughes can help the production at 2B; the question is, should he be starting? I'm leaning towards yes.

Blackburn is a MLB-calibre pitcher; on most clubs he'd be a 4th-5th starter. Hughes is a player we don't know about yet. He's got nothing left to prove in AAA, but might not be able to make it in MLB. But if he has a major role on this club it'll mean either A) someone got injured or he played himself into a starting job. If it's A, that could be bad. If it's B, it's awesome. Marquis is a 5th starter for us and would compete for that role on a lot of other clubs too. Starting pitching is still hard to find and if Marquis is getting ground balls, he can be effective. Carroll got a lot of starts for the Dodgers last year...are they a AAA club? If he comes in with a .380 OBP and solid defense he'd start for a lot of teams too. 100 losses are hardly a given. But to Seth's question...I would give Hughes a shot at the starting 2B job. If his defense can hold up I think he'd bring a little power and balance to the lineup. Casilla is probably best suited as a utility guy, and it would make it easy for him to come in as a late-game replacement for Carroll to give him a few more innings off. Casilla is a better option as a pinch runner, which gives him more value on the bench than some other options. The question is: is his defense reliable enough at 2B? The range might be an issue, with Carroll's strength being his ability to make the play cleanly, not ranging far and wide. But I think it's worth seriously considering.

The only real knock against him is the Mike Piazza critique: having to call a grown man "Chipper". He's a lock for the HoF. He was an elite hitter for a long time. 7 all-star games, 1 MVP, 6 times top 10 in MVP balloting, 7 seasons with an OPS+ over 150, 4 seasons with a bRef WAR of 7+, 13 consecutive seasons with a Bref WAR of 4+. He had big seasons, he was great for a long time. He's going to come up a little shy of 3000 hits or 500 HRs, but he's a no-brainer HoF to me.

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about Span, presuming health. Hard to do, but how do you do anything else? A line of .280/.380/.400 wouldn't surprise me one bit, with average to plus defense in the field. CF is a position of strength for the Twins, I think. Revere can easily shift over there and play it and be an outstanding defender there, and his weak arm won't be too much of a killer. Benson is close to being ready, and should be able to fill in capably. My biggest question is whether the twins might not be better off with Span playing LF with Revere in CF when Revere is on the field. Span has enough arm for LF and has played well there before, whereas Revere is a little more questionable as a LF. So far the reasoning I've heard is that Gardy is going to play Span in CF because that's where Span wants to be, which makes me wonder who's running this show.

Disasters is a vast overstatement. None of these guys have long-term deals, so they're hardly going to cripple the franchise. Did they overpay for Capps? Yes, IMHO, but if we get the guy from 2010 instead of 2011, it's not a terrible deal. Marquis was signed to be the 5th starter. Let's see how he does outside of spring training before we bury this one, but again...he didn't cost a ton and won't be a drag on the payroll after this season if he busts. Carroll was signed to be a solid middle INF who could get on base. He looks fine defensively, and again...I'm not going to take the small sample size of spring training as gospel. Let's see how he does in Target Field, eh? He only has a 2 year deal, so even if he turns out to be a better fit as the utility guy, it won't be a terrible fit. A smart fan knows spring training means very little. A smart fan knows that short-term deals are rarely a disaster because the team can move on from them pretty easily. A smart fan knows that you don't judge a GM on one offseason.

I'm thinking it's fairly likely the Twins pick up the option unless Baker has another injury-riddled year. Projecting the rotation at $30M seems reasonable, and with Balckburn/Hendriks costing a combined $6M, leaving $24M for 3 slots...$9.5M is viable. Especially if they think Gibson will be ready to be at least a 5th starter in 2013. That would still leave money in the budget to bring back Liriano even if his free agent number jumps over $12M per. A 2013 rotation of Liriano, Baker, Hendriks, Blackburn, and Gibson sounds pretty good to me, and shouldn't break the bank.

ITA with this. Look at how hard it's been for the Twins to fill the SS position. If Dozier becomes an average MLB starting SS for 4-6 seasons with the club, he won't be considered an "impact" player by some, but it'd be a huge win for the franchise not having to search for a SS every season and enduring the many failures we've had over the years. And a #3 or #4 starter is an impact player too. Teams are always looking for starting pitching, and continuing to develop quality MLB starters is also very good. Filling that #3/4 hole and not overpaying on a replacement-level free agent? Also a big win. I think I look at "impact" players differently than a lot of the so-called experts; my thoughts are much more like Seth's. Impact players in the upper-levels to me are guys who can come up and fill in when someone gets an injury and not drag the club down. They're guys who have the potential to be starters in MLB for several years. They don't have to just be all-stars in the making to be serious impact players for me. And the twins have a number of guys in AA & AAA that meet that definition. People always want to have the Next Big Star one promotion away. But that doesn't happen too often. Hopefully the guy the Twins get with the #2 pick in the draft will be one of those players, but even if it doesn't happen I don't think the cupboard is bare and I think the twins can continue to look to their minor league system first when trying to fill holes in the starting lineup.

Reliable sources say there's an incentive structure in this contract if Perkins starts closing games. So it's not quite as beautiful as it could be. But this is a very good deal. I think of it with 2012 folded in, 4 years, $12M. Pretty good for a top-level set-up guy, a pitcher who could be a classic fireman. He's got closer potential, and even with a salary bump if he gets that role it's still going to be a value buy.

Seems to me the reason the twins get poked as not having "upper-level talent" is because the standard they're being judged against is having a no-doubt impact hitter or pitcher that's effectively one promotion away from being a ROY candidate. Which is an absurd standard. How many teams are really there? And how many of those "sure-fire" guys end up busting out anyways? The Twins have a number of guys that are close to competing for MLB jobs. There are several that project as starters, others as bench guys. None of them project as all-stars, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them emerged that way. (Parmelee's fall stint with the club is probably a result of small sample sizes, expanded rosters, and meaningless fall games...but it might not be! He might be an impact bat and big-time hitter. I look forward to finding out, just hope it's not because Morneau's career comes to a end)

short answer: yes. slightly longer answer: yes, but Gardenhire seems to be extremely risk-adverse when it comes to the prospect of "losing" the DH, so that's probably the real reason we "need" a 3rd catcher on the 25 man roster. Hopefully Towles can out-hit Butera enough to get the job so there's a possibility out 3rd catcher won't be a complete offensive black hole.

Parmelee's got real potential. Putting him in Morneau's category is a real stretch at this point (defensively they're not close yet; Morneau went from being pretty shaky at 1B to being a reliable and sure-handed player. Parmelee has a ways to go). But I like what he's showing as a hitter, and I think the power potential is there. he seems to have made several adjustments over the course of his career in the minors, bringing the average up while initially sacrificing power, and now seeming to add the power back in as he's gotten better control over the strike zone. I expect him to spend most of this season at AAA, unless Morneau's season goes to hell. But you have to figure that he's going to be a big factor in the twins plans soon at 1B, DH, and as a LH power bat on the bench even if Morneau makes it through a season relatively healthy

The media criticism sounds like a warning shot to a player who is on the edge. Sounded to me like something you say early in camp to warn a guy that he needs to get it together, because he's not just a highly touted prospect any longer who will get a lot of rope and time to figure things out. If this were the last week or so of camp, I wouldn't be very impressed, but this is the sort of thing a manager should do early on.

The bench flexibility is going to be drastically reduced by the Twins (read:Gardy's) insistence on carrying 3 catchers and 12 pitchers. Both are on the iffy side in and of themselves, but combined they put the team in a significant hole regarding the bench. A 3rd catcher isn't a horrible idea...if they can hit a little and be of use as a PH. Butera has no value there. Towles might, but hasn't proven it in MLB. Makes the 3rd catcher a luxury that's unaffordable with 12 pitchers. That leaves a 4 man bench, and while I think Plouffe & Hughes are close to locks, and are potentially nice options off the bench, that only leaves one spot left. I'd like it to be for a hitter, and unless Nishioka shows something more than what we've seen, he might be better off starting the year in Rochester. I suspect Gardy will want him on the big club , though as an additional option at SS. Plouffe will not be there, absent catastrophe, his career at SS is done. My preference would be for the Twins to no either not waste a roster spot on a 3rd catcher or a 12th pitcher (I have no hope it'll be both) and keep either Tosoni or Burroughs as the LH bench bat. (If a miracle occurs, give me both) Neither has much left to prove in the minors and both have potential to be good LH bats in MLB, with some positional flexibility. My proposed bench: Hughes Plouffe Tosoni Burroughs Nishioka No 3rd catcher. If Gardy demands there be one, send Nishioka to AAA and keep Towles if he shows he can hit anything in spring training. I want black hole Butera GONE. I don't want Gardy to have the option of deciding it's a good idea to let Butera be Pavano's personal catcher again and get 50% of the starts when Mauer is resting or DHing over Doumit because "he can really pick it" and "sets a good target" or whatever BS gets trotted out. Butera cannot hit enough to be a MLB player. His D is very good, but not so elite that it can make up for the horrendous hitting. Part of winning baseball is putting yourself in position to win. Part of that is avoiding situations where you lose. Making sure the manager can't start Drew Butera 50-60 games is part of avoiding a situation where you lose.

agree 100%. especially because Gardy will play Butera too much (both as Pavano's personal catcher and as relief for Mauer). But even if Butera ISN'T playing a lot and is just there as late-inning relief for Mauer's knees in blowouts or as a defensive replacement for Doumit...he's still a bad choice for the roster spot because he offers NO value as a hitter off the bench. This team needs to have guys that can swing a bat on the bench, and Butera has no value as anything otehr than a defensive replacement, and that's just not enough to spend a roster spot on, especially with the twins likely to waste another roster spot on a 12th pitcher (who will throw maybe once a week)

1. According to bRef, Puckett played in RF in '90 & '91 with CF as his primary position, didn't play there at all in '92, played there with CF as his primary position again in '93, and didn't become a full-time RF until '94. Even if you give him the last 2 GG as "reputation" GGs, he still won 4 straight. 2. yes, that was the party line for years. Later, Puckett admitted that it was a factor and they stuck to the line so Martinez wouldn't think he'd ended the guys career with an errant pitch. But that's not really the point; there was widely held sentiment that the beaning effectively ending Puckett's career by a lot of writers and that sentiment probably helped him soem in the voting. 3. doesn't matter who actually voted on the GGs; BBWAA membership is going to take that seriously as an indicator of what kind of defensive player Puckett was. So i think my point holds. 4. I actually wasn't saying anything about "if Puckett was a better player" at all. I'm suggesting that bRef's assessment of Puckett's abilities as a defensive player might not be very accurate; they list him as a negative dWAR player 7 out of his 12 seasons in the majors and only a 1+ dWAR player ONCE in his whole career. I'm not saying IF Puckett was a better player, I'm saying he WAS a better defensive player than dWAR gives him credit for. Regarding career longevity: look, the first couple of years and last couple of years in a player's career shouldn't really change the way we think about them as a player. But because WAR is a accumulation stat, those extra years matter if you use WAR as the measuring stick. When evaluating greatness for the HoF we take into account thinks like shortened careers, the color line, wars, etc. And that came into play with Puckett, and reasonably so. He was still a fine player in his mid-30's. Duke Snider had the longer career and the higher peak (although Puckett was easily the better player in their 30's). he's almost certainly the better player overall, but he's also an easy HoF choice and the only reason he took so long to get in was he was being compared to the likes of Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, and Willie Mays his entire career. That's neither Puckett or Snider's fault: the Duke played in a wonderful era for CFs. But if you think Puckett was actually a a plus defensive player through most of his career as I do, they become much more comparable players. Puckett's an easy HoF choice for me too; WAR only makes him look a little questionable as a) a first-ballot choice, whice is easily explained through the intangibles, and through its assessment of his defensive skills.

I liked the Burroughs signing from the start, but I am a little concerned that Gardy will use it as a way to bury a player he doesn't seem to like very much in Valencia. And while Danny V has some flaws, I feel like he got scapegoated a fair bit last season. That said, I would vastly prefer to carry Burroughs on the 25 man roster than Butera's useless bat or a 12th pitcher that will throw once every 10 days. This team needs to have LH & RH bats on the bench that can actually hit a little

One of the problems using WAR is it's a compiling stat, so comparing Kirby to Duke Snider (12 seasons vs. 18 seasons) is hard. (Or do you really think Kirby was going to be a negative WAR player if he'd played another 3-5 years? even with bRef hating on Kirby's defense, he was still projectable as a 2-4 WAR guy for at least a few more seasons) But at the end of the day, it makes little difference to me if a guy's in on the first ballot or the 11th. I'm just not someone who adds a little extra shine to the halo for being a "first-ballot Hall of Famer", but YMMV. Kirby got a little extra love for a career cut tragically short via a beaning, being an ebullient personality and positive ambassador of baseball, being the best player on 2 World Series winners, and (probably) getting significantly more credit for his defense that bRef's dWAR gives him. (career -1.8?) BBWAA saw him as being one of the better defensive OFs during his era; dWAR says it added nothing to his career value. Add 3-5 years to his career and make him a plus dWAR guy every year and suddenly he looks a lot like Duke Snider in terms of overall value. Hmmm...

I think this is probably as accurate a prediction as you could have without trying to project for injuries. Which is too bad. I hate the idea that the Twins are going to roll with 12 pitchers again. Burnett (or Doyle) just won't pitch enough to make it worth keeping them on the active roster, IMHO. I would be much happier with an additional impact bat on the bench (Tosoni? Parmelee?), especially considering how many light hitters the Twins have in the lineup (Revere, Carroll, Casilla...god forbid, BUTERA). Tosoni is my first choice. He should be capable of playing LF or RF, and it's time to see what he's got. Plouffe & Hughes are decent RH options, but wouldn't it be nice to have LH bat on the bench too? Parmelee has the better bat, I think, but time in Rochester working on his skills at 1B and playing every day is probably better for him right now, and will get him ready to be called up if (when? boo.) Morneau can't go. I really don't want Butera as the backup. I'm frightened that Gardy will play him waaaay too much (especially if Morneau can't go and they have mauer at 1B more) and he just. can't. hit! His D is good, but it's not at the uber-elite level it would need to be to make him worth playing more than as a late-inning blowout replacement and a handful of starts. He has no value as a PH, which burns the roster more and the 25-man roster is tight to begin with. (Especially with the Twins being silly and carrying 12 pitchers) Rather see Towles get a shot; he at least has shown some hitting ability in the minors, even if he hasn't been able to translate it to the MLB level.