jmlease1

I think Mauer needs to get over 10K innings at catcher and still be seen as at least a decent defensive catcher, along with at least 2000 hits. Another 4 seasons at 2010/2012 levels should get him in even if he has several additional years in decline and/or playing mostly 1B/DH/3B. Hard to call him the best hitting catcher with Piazza out there, but a couple of additional seasons at Mauer's current pace and he's clearly at least #2, passing guys like Bench and Berra. Joe's definitely on a HoF trajectory. I can't call him a lock; a lot of voters would probably have problems putting him in if his career ended at 9 seasons or so. But he's started getting close and I expect he'll make it. He'll get the high BA guys, the more modern OBP guys, he should have the WAR, the hardware (gold gloves, silver sluggers, the MVP, the batting titles) to make him a fairly easy choice the way he's going. If he leads the Twins back to the playoffs in the next 3-4 seasons while playing at a high level, he's got to be in, don't you think? We are watching greatness. Occasionally frustrating greatness (razzin-frazzin' double plays!) but true greatness nonetheless.

Baker & Liriano are more talented than any of the new 4 pitchers, save Gibson perhaps. But injuries and inconsistency made them bad options last season. As correctly noted, Baker didn't throw a single regular season pitch last year. Marquis was abysmal. Pavano was declining, injured, and terrible. Liriano was inconsistent and overall bad. If Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey are all healthy throughout the season the performance of the pitching staff will probably improve. Correia's my least favorite signing of the off-season, and even he should put up better numbers than the combination of Nick Blackburn/Carl Pavano did last season in 30 starts. Worley should give the team better numbers than the combo platter of Liriano/Walters over 33 starts. Pelfrey could do better than the 27 starts we got from Hedriks/Duensing and shouldn't do worse. The problem is, we're talking about marginal improvements. I actually have pretty high hopes for Gibson, but I also expect his innings to be limited and lessen his impact this season. But getting the starting pitching from abysmal to competent could have a pretty big impact. If the new starters can get through the early innings without putting the team in a big hole, maybe that's a big enough step up to show improvement. The bullpen should still be very solid, especially with Duensing there and not messing around with him as a starter. The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

I'm not thrilled about it; Pelfrey has been durable previously, but just doesn't miss enough bats. The K/BB ratio has been pretty bad, he gives up too many hits and just doesn't have a lot of upside. There have been worse moves, I guess. Maybe his velocity will increase post-surgery (as has happened with other pitchers) and he'll turn out to be a solid 3-4 guy, but I'm not holding my breath. At least it's only a 1 year deal. And let's face it. there will be at least one pitcher with these kind of peripherals who will turn in a nice season next year, maybe we'll get lucky.

word. My biggest problem with this contract is the length: wanna roll the dice on Correia filling in the back of the rotation? Fine. But why give him a 2nd year? They still need to sign another pitcher, and one with a greater chance of success than Correia. They have the money to do so, if they can find a taker.

Well, TPuck took care of the Hardy stuff, so no further comment needed from me. Regarding the OF alignment, Gardy was quoted in spring training about Willingham being more comfortable in LF. And we're all in agreement that Revere is a superior CF to Span defensively, right? Span's better arm doesn't make up for Revere's better range. Throw in Span's success as a LF in the Dome, the relatively spacious LF in Target Field and the fact that Willingham is the Butcher of Cairo no matter which OF position he plays at times...I think I've got a fair point on this one, not a fictional one. (I can't find it right now, but I swear I recall Gardy being quoted as saying Span was going to play CF because he liked it better there, but whether this was in the last year I don't know) We have had terrible production from the #2 spot in the batting order in recent years, and there have been better options available. Now, with Span leading off, Jamey Carroll isn't unreasonable; the career OBP is there. Casilla is a bigger reach; the .330 OBP years are marginally acceptable, the .280 years are NOT. Or the Nishioka or whomever else experiments, especially when you have on-base machine Joe Mauer sitting right there. Does he have to hit 3rd because he's won a batting title? I'll admit freely it's speculation on my part that Gardy gets himself kicked out because he can't control himself, but it's sure what it looks like to me. When he's screaming at an umpire and there isn't a Twins player within 30 feet of them, it's not protecting a player. It doesn't get you any advantage the rest of the game with the umpire; having refereed for years I can tell you that a coach going berserk in your face doesn't help that guy's cause. Much easier to write him off as a lunatic. The guys who calmly told me about a specific thing they wanted looked at were a lot easier to take seriously. Save the screaming for when you're trying to keep your player from getting thrown out. You might weight this stuff differently than me. That's fine. But I don't think I'm making stuff up here. And it's not my only problem with Gardenhire, who has been almost immune to criticism over the years, and I question the validity of that.

My only problem with Shane Mack is he spent such a short time with the team (in the context of a team HoF). Loved him as a player, but it's hard for me to look at a guy with only 5 years with the team as a top contender. But 4 terrific years and one mediocre. I'm hoping Aaron Hicks turns out to be Shane Mack v2

I agree, Twins should have made a competitive offer for Dempster, would would have been a solid starter and innings eater until the next wave of pitchers is ready. Especially at 2 years $13M.

Yes, let's get rid of as many proven MLB hitters as we can! I'm not diametrically opposed to trading Morneau if we get a good return, but this isn't basketball where tanking a season and clearing all your "cap space" sets you up for a quick return to winning. It's not easy to find hitters capable of carrying a team, drawing people to the ballpark, etc. And while the Twins have some hitters with the potential to do that coming up through the minors, right now they're unproven and several of them could easily bust. How much of a return would we get on Morneau, who is in the last year of his contract and has an injury history? I'd argue he's worth more to the Twins batting 5th, keeping the offense a quality one, and bridging the gap to the next generation of hitters than a couple of marginal A-Ball prospects. If someone wants to pay up for Morneau you listen but this isn't a guy you salary dump. Willingham brings in more, with 2 years at a great price coming off a career year...but how long have the Twins been searching for this kind of RH power bat? Price would have to be awfully high to consider it. No one should be truly untouchable on this roster, but we're starting to talk about players that don't make as much sense to deal as Span & Revere were. Both were younger players with even better contract situations playing positions in demand...and there are Twins fans suggesting that neither minor-league pitcher are top of the rotation starters! Would the return for Morneau & Willingham be worth the truly awful team the Twins would put on the field in 2013? How many people would crush the Twins for getting Target Field and pocketing the money then? How badly would attendance crater? How attractive would this be as a free agent destination? How desperately would we be relying on the minors to produce stars? The twins are taking a risk by dealing Span AND Revere that Hicks will be ready sooner rather than later, but it's a reasonable one, especially since Parmelee needed a spot to play and it brought back some high end arms that aren't 3 years away from getting a shot. Unless a deal for Morneau (or Willingham) brings back a middle infield bat that's relatively close as well, it's probably not going to end up being a very good deal for the team from both an economic standpoint and from a team-building one.

Gardy did run Garza & JJ Hardy out of town. He's not responsible for the terrible return, but he is the guy who didn't want the SS who could hit for power and played good defense because he wasn't fast enough. Gardy's the guy who played Revere in RF, Span in CF, and Willingham in LF because it was where the veterans Span & Willingham liked to play, despite it being blindingly obvious that the best defensive alignment for the team was Span in LF, Revere in CF, and Willingham in RF. Gardy's the guy whose batting order has been baffling, playing no-hit guys in the 2-hole because they had "speed" or just played 2B. Gardy's the guy who gets kicked out of games because he can't control himself. Look, he's not a BAD manager. But he's not a great one either. And he doesn't seem to be adding a lot of value to the club.

I'm be more concerned for Gardy's fate if the Twins didn't have a bunch of young players ready to come through the doors in the next 2-3 years and knowing Gardy's preferences for crappy veterans over young talent. Or his poor game management. Or his poor batting order choices. Or his preference for putting a player's wants over what's best for the team. Gardy's a good enough manager for a veteran team; his guys play hard for him, he doesn't embarrass the club, and he does a decent enough job with a pitching staff. But is he the guy you want to develop young talent? How much value is he really adding? Of course, I'm also the guy who believes to this day he had a strong hand in on some of Bill Smith's worse personnel failures and then threw his GM under the bus.

Meyer & May are fringe 3's?!? Really? Man, you must have absolutely hated these last two trades. I'm not saying that ranking the Twins system 6 is some grave insult (I can argue for a couple places higher), but I would certainly value Meyer & May higher. These aren't 18 year-old rookie ball guys with no track record putting up numbers against garbage competition. Both are on the fast track to the majors with Meyer clearly having the stuff to be a frontline starter. May isn't as advanced, but grades out as a potential 2-3 starter.

Where on earth are you getting that from? Informed guess, like most of the speculation around here. He's 30 years old, I'm sure his agent is selling him as someone who should be getting a 4 or 5 year deal rather than 2 or 3. Hell, most people around here are of the opinion that Marcum is a better pitcher than Dempster, so why wouldn't he be looking for more years & more money?

Are you sure about that? Marcum: last 3 years: 3.62 ERA. 7.5/2.4 K/BB 1.179 WHIP 30 years old Dempster last 3 years: 4.04 ERA 8.4/3.4 K/BB 1.327 WHIP 35 years old Marcum last 3 years: WAR 3.8/2.9/1.3 Dempster last 3 years: WAR 2.4/0.5/3.6 Which is these two pitchers looks more like a "decline phase" pitcher now? But when I talk about a pitcher being better right now, I', more concerned about what kind of season they're directly coming off of rather than averaging the prior three. But one of the things I probably should have said was "Dempster is a better pitcher for the Twins right now", in part because I see him as being more likely to pitch 200 innings at the top end of the rotation which is sorely needed. Dempster's 3-year averages are pulled down by 2 really good years sandwiched around 1 bad one. Marcum's averages are pretty even: he is who is he. I like both pitchers for the Twins, but Dempster's desire for a 3rd year might make him a viable option with a front-loaded contract that helps smooth the Twins payroll situation and stay reasonable. Marcum may be looking for 4 or 5 years at bigger money.

I'd consider a 3rd year on Dempster, but I'd max it out at $32M total value and front load the deal to a certain extent (which is the the correct way to do it for a "decline phase" type player). Especially with the additional room in the budget trading Span created. So Dempster gets $14M in year 1, $11M in year 2, and $7M in year three. I would argue he's actually got pretty good odds of being worth that amount of money in all three years of his deal, and even if he's a little below it would be manageable. Marcum is another pitcher I'd do 3 years for, and considering his age you can do a more balanced contract and still come out in good shape, but Dempster is the better pitcher right now. If the Twins are serious about competing in 2013, signing a pitcher like Dempster to a 3-year deal at these kinds of numbers is eminently reasonable and doable. Now, the real question is whether Dempster is willing to do this kind of deal and/or come to the Twins, which is are much bigger questions. While I think my proposed numbers are reasonable, he may well think he should get something in the $36-40M range, which is where I think the numbers get too high to make it a good bet. $7M for a 1-2 WAR pitcher in the final year of his contract as the 5th starter "veteran presence" is ok. $13M for the same guy is not. Keep in mind, last season the Twins did not have a single 2 WAR pitcher on their staff.

Since TR will clearly be making a few more moves before Spring Training, it is indeed awfully early to be talking lineups & batting order. But even as things stand, there's a really solid core of hitters there if Parmelee & Plouffe can put together consistent hitting. Mauer will likely compete for a batting title again. Morneau should actually be better this season as he gets further away from his concussion (he was seriously bailing out against LH pitching last year, and a healthy year will help him stay in). Doumit is a solid hitter. Williamham is a prototypical RH slugger who fits in perfectly between the M & M boys. Offense up the middle is problematic, but ANY improvement there makes a pretty big difference. The offense was solid last year, but the starting pitching was so bad it needed to be superior to win. The rotation is getting better: add Marcum or Dempster and the rotation will be significantly better than last season. Either one of those guys would be a nice Opening Day starter, and having Diamond, Worley, and Gibson behind him works for me.

Well-stated, Nick. That said, I think 1 more veteran pitcher (Marcum or Dempster are my preferences) might be enough to solidify the rotation with Diamond, Gibson, & Worley with 1 more coming from the Hendriks/De Vries/Walters/Deduno/Blackburn/et al group. Are any of those last group of Twins pitchers going to make your socks roll up & down? No, but we'd be looking for a 4th starter, not a 1, 2, or 3. I assume Gibson's innings will be limited, so think of him as the 5th starter. I think we can find a 4th starter out of that crew. That leaves up with some payroll flexibility to shore up the infield, giving us more options at 2B/SS, insurance/competition for Plouffe at 3B, etc. Now, if Plouffe can be an 800 OPS player with adequate defense, and Parmelee hits better than Span the offense should still be pretty good. You can't call them the favorites for 2013, but surrender? By adding a solid starter while dropping salary, the Twins have put themselves in position to keep building a good roster and preparing for the next wave from the minors (which is now looking like a pretty strong system again).

I think it's hard to know on Morneau, but I would guess no trade. If the Twins manage to sign a pitcher like Dempster or Marcum to shore up the rotation further, add an additional vet for the back end/insurance, suddenly the rotation looks solid with Marcum/Dempster, Diamond, Worley, Gibson, Hendriks/De Vries/Walters/Waldrop/FA #2. It's one thing to go in the season needing 2 guys to step up from that last pack, another to be looking for 1. Honestly, they should still have money to look for help at 2B/SS to have insurance against Dozier/Florimon not being ready/MLB-quality AND get a quality 3B option in case Plouffe was a fluke. Carroll slides back into the utility position he's best suited for and suddenly you've got a very nice bullpen coupled with a decent rotation and a solid lineup...why not ride that team, see how they do with a healthy Justin Morneau in the middle of the lineup (and hopefully after a full healthy year, no longer bailing out on pitches from LHers). If it doesn't work, you can look at dealing him at the deadline, but that's a team you can sell to the public as worth watching. The rotation still wouldn't be top-end, but there'd be 4 pitchers who would qualify as being reasonable #2-#3 starters. And a massive improvement over last season. Offensive drop-off is likely in CF and LF (Willingham will likely regress a little due to age), but there's potential improvement (overall) for RF, 3B and 1B. Unlikely the offense at SS & 2B can get much worse! So why couldn't the offense be better? No need to rush Arcia at that point. Progress in 2013 is a good idea to set up 2014, from a marketing standpoint...and from a team standpoint. Isn't it better to stagger out your rookie development a little if you can?

Please god, let us not sign a pitcher to a 6-year deal! Yuck, yuck, and yuck. How many extra-long big contracts to pitchers have turned out well? Of the pitchers on this list, Dempster is the one I'd probably want: 3 years & $35-$40M is probably more than he's worth, but he should have a shot to live up to that deal over the next 2 seasons and then you're only talking about 1 year of dead money. Better if we can get him for 2 seasons, but I can live with 3. Adding Dempster & Marcum would do a lot to stabilize the rotation over the next couple of seasons while guys like Gibson & Meyers round into shape. Develop another guy from the stock in the minors (there are several options to be a 4th or 5th starter). Don't bust the budget or make a stupid signing. 6-year deals for pitchers are STUPID.

Heck, I'm even ok with Capps being used as a "closer" again, so long as he's not PAID like one. That would keep Perkins in use in likely more high-leverage roles and be more of a classic "fireman". as long as we collect him on the cheap ($1-2M) he'd be a useful piece.

I would argue that productive free agent signings should be on this list too, notably Doumit & Willingham, not just for their health. Both of these guys are under contract for 2 more seasons at very reasonable prices and are great examples of good free agent moves, both in what they've done and what they've kept the team from doing (i.e., not signing Michael Cuddyer. Willingham has been significantly better than Cuddyer (WAR of 3.0 vs 0.6, OPS+ of 147 vs. 101) and for $3.5M less. That's an encouraging sign too, that the Twins hopefully aren't going to overpay a guy just because he was here) Middle INF is still an issue for the Twins, but the rest of the lineup looks solid, with much fewer questions for next year. That's a very good thing. The bullpen has fewer questions for next year. The rotation is where the questions are, but compared to last year there are a lot fewer ifs to wonder and worry about. I said at the start of this season that this Twins club had so many questions and so much uncertainty up and down the roster that it was very hard to predict how the team would turn out. The lineup & bullpen have answered many of those questions. Now we need to get the rotation in order.

I think some of the people questioning Revere's chances were partly including him not getting to play CF because of Span and questioning if he could hit enough to play elsewhere, so some of the arm issues may have been more the "final straw" if you will. I've always believed range is more important than arm; range has both greater impact and greater frequency of impact than arm strength. My biggest beef is that Revere isn't playing CF, where we'd get the greatest benefit from his incredible range and the least penalty from his poor arm. Span is a fine CF, but he's also a superior LF, and Willingham's issues in the field wouldn't be any worse in RF. Our best defensive OF alignment is Span in LF, Revere in CF, and Willingham in RF. but we don't have it because Gardy prefers to cater to our players' mindset over best results on the field. Do we really believe Span and Willingham would suddenly drop off significantly if they were asked to play where it'd be best for the team over what they like the best?

Liriano is a really hard call. You just don't know what his performance is going to be the next few years, and it seems likely it will be "inconsistent". I don't like the idea of making the $12.3M arbitration tender, because I think Liriano would probably take it and no one else would come near those dollars for him. $12M for a guy who might be great, could completely stink, and will probably spend another year being really frustrating? Yikes. Especially as it probably takes the team out of the market for one of the top starters. Right now, I think it's sign a 3-year deal or deal him. No higher than John's $27M package, but I'd hope we might get him in under that considering his injury & recent performance history. But I'm perfectly ok with dealing him too, and I think we might get a decent package for him. Moreover, if he gets moved, that frees up more money to go after a guy like Greinke, whom I think the Twins should go all out to get.

Part of the problem Mauer has is he's not particularly media-friendly (he doesn't say much, speaks in cliches, and would generally rather just go about his business and be left alone), which opens the door for some twits in the local sports media to a) clock him regularly for perceived flaws in his production, or encourage fans to do the same. (Dan Barreiro, please pick up the white courtesy phone...Dan Barreiro, to the white phone) Coming off a terrible, injury-plagued season where the entire team collapsed, Joe became an easy target of blame for the lazy and uninformed, and so that's why you see crap like this. Mauer's the best catcher in the AL right now, even though he's only played half his games there. Mauer is an all-star. Willingham is having a very nice year, but the competition at OF is a lot tougher. Plouffe's surge probably came a little bit too late, and his start was so awful that you can't object too much to leaving him out.

I think Span is the Twins best trade asset right now; he's a solid MLB CF who is under contract for a couple of years at a very good price. He's proven to be a real asset at the top of the order, and the health concerns appear to be a thing of the past. He should be a very attractive to a number of teams. I'd hate to lose Span for all of those reasons, but for the right price he should be traded. We do have a replacement for him in CF in Ben Revere, who seems to be showing that he can hit at this level. (would I be happier if Revere got a few more walks, had a little more pop in his bat? sure, but if he can hit .320 you just roll with it.) But it has to be the right deal. I don't want to deal a quality MLB starter for a couple of maybe prospects sitting in A-ball. Moving Span for a couple of C prospects isn't a good use of the team's assets. There needs to be some high upside and at least one guy who's not 3 years away. Another $5M in payroll room wouldn't hurt; that could absorb all of the raises to guys currently under contract/control while we spend the money freed up from cutting Pavano, Baker, Liriano, & Capps loose on starting pitching (Zack Greinke to the white courtesy phone...paging Zack Greinke...)

Here's my biggest issue with the "trade all the assets" movement for the Twins: this isn't basketball, where you're better off blowing things up and starting from scratch than being a mediocre team for several years. Anything can happen in a baseball playoff, so getting into the playoffs should be the goal, rather than trying to tear everything down with the hope of building a dynasty in the future. How much real value to Perkins & Burton have in trade? Smart GMs know that you can build a good bullpen on the cheap and that spending big money for a closer is probably wasting money. So we're really looking at getting back C-level prospects at best, in exchange for MLB pitchers that are filling a valuable role. Considering who much of a crap-shoot the MLB draft is, bottoming out the team seems to have marginal benefit. I agree with the idea that the twins have a serious problem with their rotation, but that doesn't mean it can't be turned around relatively quickly. But we won't really know until the off-season at least. Scott Diamond could be a solid starter. Gibson may be ready by next season, depending on how he responds this year. Liam Hendriks might be ready to be in the back end. Blackburn should be able to fit in the back of the rotation. The Twins are short at the top of the rotation, but there should be some options on the free agent market, and the Twins will have the money to spend on one if they so choose. And choose they should: with Pavano, Baker, Liriano, and Capps' contracts off the books, that gives the Twins $26M to spend without raising payroll. (Use the Marquis contract to cover some of the inevitable payroll increases?) Zack Greinke sounds pretty good and the Twins should be a viable suitor. But not if we decimate the roster. The offense sure looks solid enough. The defense has improved. The bullpen is solid. The ballpark is awesome. If ownership is willing to spend...why not, if the young players can go? But tear it all down and we guarantee 3 years or more of crap.