jmlease1

Argh. Not enthusiastic about this move at all. I hope TR is smarter than me. Pelfrey did show signs of improvement in the second half of the season, but he still wasn't especially effective, no matter how many times Ron "See you in Chicago" Coomer raved about the movement on his pitches. At least it's only a 2 year deal? He'll phase out one year after Correia phases out? What this also tells me is the Twins have little confidence that Worley and Diamond will have strong bounce-back seasons as starters. Deduno seems to have the inside track, especially with Albers having an option left. Maybe they'll try Worley/Diamond as a long guy in the pen, since they're not going to have a Rule 5 guy to protect? I'd be much happier if this were a 1 year deal, but at least it's no more than 2. If we get Correia performance out of him it'll be a success, but it's just not the kind of move I like to see. Maybe they think they can package some of the guys who are out of options into a deal for help somewhere else?

I'm very pleased with this signing. A 3-year deal on a pitcher who still has upside and is only 27? That's a relatively low-risk for a market-rate contract. I would agree that if he's got an OF of Willingham, Presley, and Arcia behind him it's not going to go too well, but I think it's much more likely that Willingham is DHing and Hicks gets another shot at CF. And beyond that, we've got Hughes for 3 seasons...think what our OF may look like in years 2 & 3! The K rate is a nice improvement and if Anderson can get a few things ironed out, pitching in MN could go well for Hughes. I think this deal will work out for the team. So next season we're looking at Nolasco, Correia, Hughes, and Gibson (there's no way they give up on him this quickly) with Deduno/Diamond/Worley to fill out the back. No need to rush Meyer & May, but openings will be available in 2015 as contracts run out and better pitchers demand spaces. The Nolasco & Hughes signings aren't transformative in the traditional sense, but they don't have to be. They will hopefully stabilize an awful rotation and bridge eras until guys like Meyer, May, Stewart, & Berrios are ready to join the rotation. Going from awful to quality will go a long way towards making this team respectable again.

$14M per year on a 4-5 year for Nolasco isn't fair value, it's stupid value. I realize it only takes one moron to screw up the market on a guy, but let's try hard not to be the first idiot at the buffet. Just because Nolasco's agent likes us doesn't mean he's going to give us a good deal. Hughes is not going to be a $20M per year player. Hughes is not going to be a $15M per year player. Moreover the Twins do have a number of selling points to offer a guy like Hughes: willingness to pay him on a 2-3 year deal while he gets time to bounce back and get one more big payday, a ballpark that plays well to his fly-ball tendencies, a media market that isn't going to immediately crush him the first start he's not Andy Pettite or Mike Mussina, and a bunch of young offensive players in the pipeline. Why not court him? Why not get him in to the Twin Cities and have him hang out with Joe Mauer over at Target Field? Hughes is a guy that's on my radar because he's a guy that a) is gettable, and should have success here at a reasonable price. Nolasco is a guy that already seems over-priced and destined to bust.

I think I'm more interested in getting Kazmir & Hughes than Nolasco and whomever (Arroyo?). Last season was a bounce-back year for Nolasco after a couple years in a row where he gave up a TON of hits and the K rate kept going down. He's also pitched his entire career in the NL. Kazmir has red flags too: injuries and ineffectiveness nearly ended his career. But his peak was higher, he did it in the AL, his K rate is higher, he's younger, and he's likely to be a) cheaper, and not insistent on a 5 year deal. Hughes has been up & down over his career, but a move to Target field should help him, and he's still on the good side of 30. I'm not opposed to Arroyo per se, but I'd like the Twins to be a little more aggressive than that. Again, Nolasco's not terrible or anything, but I have trouble with the idea of giving a 4-5 year deal to a guy who has hit 30 and posted an above average ERA+ exactly twice. (and was convincingly below average 4 of the past 5 years)

I'm a Hughes fan. His extreme fly-ball tendencies will play much better at Target Field than NYC and I feel like we'd be buying low on him. He misses enough bats to be a plus starter. I like him better than Arroyo (whose age, lack of Ks, and National League pedigree scare me) or Jimenez (whose peripherals and velocity keep sliding and has a bumpy track record. plus, what if he's actually even older than we think he is? Again?!?).

I would like both Kazmir & Hughes, both on 2-3 year deals. They should get between $8-10M each and I think the Twins should be willing to pay it. The questions are, will either be looking for a 4 year deal and should the Twins go that long on them, and will demand create a market where they can command contracts in the $10-12M range? Much tougher questions. I think I would be willing to go as high as $11-12M on Kazmir on a 2 year deal. (less on Hughes, even though I think he'd be a great fit for the Twins) It's probably too much risk to go that high on a 3 or 4 year deal, considering his history. I have to say, I'd feel a lot better about the Twins next season if their rotation was Kazmir, Gibson, Hughes, Correia, and Diamond/Deduno/Worley. Sure, there's no "ace" in that group (especially since "ace" seems to now be defined as "guy who is listed as someone who can win the Cy Young before the season starts") but it is a crew that could throw a lot of innings, miss more bats that previous years, and keep the team in games. I hope the Twins can sell themselves to Kazmir. Despite the bad last few years, there are a bunch of things to like about coming here: Target Field (both as an awesome ballpark and a good place to pitch), a stable franchise, a lot of young hitting talent in the pipeline, and Joe Mauer. Hopefully, this is where Gardy's rep as a player's manager helps sell a guy on coming here.

With Herrmann and Doumit in the organization there's no real need to go get another catcher. You go in with Pinto the presumed starter with Doumit expected to be a "super-sub" at catcher, 1B, DH, and OF and Herrmann to be the full-time backup who gets maybe 1 start a week. Not sure there's room for both Collabello & Parmelee on the roster this season, especially with the Twins seeming desire (need?) to keep 12 pitchers. Bad luck for them, but neither has exactly seized their opportunities to show they can be consistent MLB hitters. Even worse, neither has shown a platoon split that would increase their value as a bench bat/situational hitter. Doumit still has pretty good value as long as he can still catch some, so I'm not going to clamor for him to be dealt just to open up a spot. Willingham might have a little value as a 1 year rental if he proves he's healthy. If Sano is ready to make the jump, I'd like to see this Twins lineup: 1B Mauer 2B Dozier RF Arcia DH Willingham 3B Sano LF Plouffe C Pinto CF Hicks SS Florimon If Sano's not ready (and please, please don't rush him!) then Colabello/Parmelee has the first shot at RF with Plouffe staying at 3B and Arcia going back to LF. Which will be a brutal defensive lineup, but that's the way it goes.

I agree the prices are probably a little low on Johnson & Hughes, but clearly there's room in the budget to go higher on them. I'd be happy to go 3 years $27M on Hughes, whom I think would fit in very nicely at Target Field. I wouldn't waste time & effort to bring back Johan, whom I think would have too high expectations from the media and fanbase; moreover I think the team has options for a 5th starter in Deduno, Worley, and Diamond that work. It's only when we need them to be 2 or 3 starters that things look so ugly. If the Twins sign Johnson & Hughes the rotation improves massively. I doubt Sano starts with the club, but it sure is fun to think about it! I want Parmelee to succeed, but I'm increasingly of the belief that he's a replacement-level guy at best, a real AAAA talent. You can't count on him.

For the whole "fiery clubhouse leader" bit to have a positive impact, the rest of the team needs to know that guy has their back. Torii would sell out any player on the team for a soundbite on KFAN. From a talent standpoint, he'd be a decent addition to the team (at the right price) because he can still hit and play decent defense in one of the corners. But I doubt he'll come at a good price and I can't see him as a good mentor for young players. I'd rather guys like Hicks & Arcia not get the idea that trying to make the spectacular play over the smart play is a good idea (yes, I remember him diving for those balls in the playoffs too and screwing the team)

I agree with Seth. Hunter prioritized his relationships with the media over his teammates. It helped make him more popular with the casual fan, but the idea he was this great clubhouse leader was totally manufactured. He's been a fine player, and his defense actually matched the reputation back in his Twins days, but his best days are long gone and unless he's willing to sign a relatively cheap deal (highly unlikely) it's fairly likely he won't live up to his next contract. but the reality is, he's not the guy I'd want mentoring the young OFs we have coming up through the system. I can't see him being a guy who would yield playing time to younger players happily.

I agree that we should reserve judgment on Dozier until we see if he can play at this level for more than one season, but there are a lot of reasons for hope on him. There's nothing in his performance that suggests "fluke"; no unsustainable BABIP, no beating up on a bunch of Sept call-ups to pad the stats. And the defense has been elite. Right now Dozier looks like a league-average hitter with strong defense, which makes him better than average at 2B and a very valuable asset (hardly replaceable, considering how much trouble the Twins have had with middle infielders in recent years!). I always expected regression on Diamond, just not this much regression. I still think he can be a useful member of the rotation next season. I'd really like the team to spend to get a guy like Burnett or Hughes to hold down a spot with Gibson and have Deduno, Diamond, Corriea, Hendricks, and Worley fight it out for the other spots until Meyer & May are ready.

I think it's something that will have to be considered, but it's a good problem to have. I agree that it's not something that should be pursued seriously this offseason, but the Twins have to be prepared for an offer that would blow you away. I think it's more likely other teams will try and make low-ball offers that should be laughed at! Dozier has been a real bright spot this season. The defense has been excellent and the power a really nice bonus. If he makes it happen another season (and maybe brings the BA up another 20 pts?) he's a really nice asset in the middle INF. It lets the team be patient with Rosario, which is a good thing for a player who changed positions like he did. It could be a very interesting question of which one becomes the trade chip: Rosario or Dozier. Rosario could bring an MLB-ready power arm, and if it's a pitcher about to hit free agency who the Twins could lock up long-term to head up the rotation...wouldn't you have to do it (assuming the extension was part of the package)? Alternatively, Dozier could bring a Ben Revere/Denard Span type of haul (or more). It's a good problem to have. I think with the Twins philosophy they're more likely to keep Rosario and look to more Dozier if/when he starts to get more expensive and try to get that type of prospect haul. It worked incredibly well dealing from strength with AJ, and while Hicks struggled out the gate, overall I think it's been a reasonable move with dealing Span & Revere.

I'm going to argue that Hicks ends up as the teams ROY. He's not going to end up as a plus hitter when the full-season is taken into account, but the defense is there and the second half hitting will be strong enough to make him the best overall rookie. I always like to take evolution into account with rookies and I think by the end of the season we're going to view Hicks as a plus MLB CF. Everything has to count, so you can't ignore Hicks' horrific start at the plate, but at the same time you can't ignore his consistently good defense and the fact that he's been able to stay in the lineup for almost the whole season and worked his way out of the mess. It's no knock on Arcia, just a vote of confidence for Hicksie.

Save Hicks' return to the top of the order for Sept, when the other call-ups arrive and the pressure's down a little. He's having some success now where he's at; let him build on it for a while. yes, it blows not having a decent leadoff guy right now, but Hicks' long-term development is more important than a couple of months of bad leadoff issues. Parmelee was sent down for 2 reasons, I think. 1) get him some more consistent ABs, and 2) send him a message that he doesn't have a secured roster spot and he needs to turn it up. Here's my fear with Parmelee: if he doesn't get it going before the Sept call-ups, will we know what he is? My concern is that he's a 4A player without a singular skill that gives him enough value to stick. I'm rooting for him, but he hasn't seized the opportunities. Arcia needs the time back in AAA to settle it back down and get his approach at the plate in order. I still think he's going to be just fine; he's awfully young and some early struggles are normal. Hicks' track record and skill set makes him a better candidate to work through his issues at the majors than Arcia, IMHO. I think we'll see Arcia back up in a few weeks or so. One of my goals for the twins in the 2nd half is to find out a little more definitely who can be part of the starting rotation going forward and who can't. I want to see the guys who might be here after this season taking their turns through the rotation and the stop-gap guys (Mike Pelfrey, are your ears burning?) be the first choice to be a 5th starter. Let's find out if Diamond can get it straightened out, Deduno can sustain and improve, Gibson can adjust, etc.

It would have to be a pretty big deal for me to think it's a good idea. Normally, I'm all about flipping closers for prospects/every day help, but Perkins is actually on a contract that is a good one for a solid relief guy and is excellent for an elite one. Moreover, he's on that contract through the 2016 season. Unless the Twins are overwhelmed by an offer, I don't see the urgency to sell high on him. It's doubtful anyone would be willing to give up a quality starting pitcher unless they're still an A-ball roll of the dice, which I might be interested in if Perk was going into the last year of his deal, but less than enthusiastic about with 3 years left. The Twins would need to be getting a shortstop who is MLB-ready or a starting pitcher who is also close to really consider this.

In Hicks' case he hasn't really been given any options. And if he wants to keep his job, he had to show greater willingness to embrace the young guys with this wave that's approaching. So far Arcia looks to be working out nicely (he's a Rookie of the Year contender). Sure would be nice to see Parmelee show some consistent hitting ability before Sept. He needs to prove he can hit in July & August to prove that he's more than just a 4A player. Nick's point is well-taken: this team is more fun to watch and easier to get behind because of the young players that are starting to break through. It's nice to have hope in the minors that people are buzzing about, but it's even better to have young guys breaking through at the MLB level at the same time!

Plouffe also has one other major asset for this team right now: he bats RH. Not as important when Sano & Buxton come charging through, but right now with Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, Parmelee...it can be a pretty LH-heavy lineup. Plouffe adds a bit of balance. He need to show he can stay healthy and out of an extended slump, but despite his defensive deficiencies, he could be a valuable asset for the Twins both as a current player and as trade-bait in the future. The power production is really nice.

I'm pretty disappointed in Parmelee so far, but I'd like to see the Twins keep him up with the big club and give him a little more rope to figure things out up here. Right now I don't see him as having much to prove down in AAA, and I like the idea of keeping his option available for next season with what is coming up in the Twins system. There's a real possibility that Parmelee is a 4A player, but this season is the right time to figure it out, since the team is not going to be contending. I'd like Parmelee to have more time with Brunansky to try and iron out his swing and approach and see if he can be a guy who can add value to this team in the next few years. But if he hasn't figured it out before Sept, that's going to be a telling sign. If Sept rolls around and he starts knocking around pitching again (after the call-ups, after teams seasons are done, etc.) then we might know who he really is as a player.

Correia has been a pleasant surprise. I hope it's sustainable; if so, then this will turn out to be a good signing even with the extra year that I felt was so foolish. I'll be perfectly happy with Correia in the rotation next season as hopefully the 4th starter behind guys like Gibson, Diamond, and hopefully Worley. As an innings-eating 4th/5th starter next season he could end up being an even bigger asset. Credit where it's due: this move has worked out. Worley's struggles have honestly shocked me. I didn't expect him to be an ace, but I really thought he'd be a guy that you could count on for 6+ innings in the majority of his starts with solid performance. He wasn't the prize in that trade but looked like a terrific stabilizing/bridge option in the rotation while the younger guys developed. So far he's been a wreck. Hopefully a few starts down in AAA will get his confidence back up, they can iron out any mechanical difficulties he might be having and get him on track. Florimon has been solid, which is something the Twins have really needed at SS. He still has too many brainlocks out there which leads to him making an error that seems utterly baffling, but he's not a black hole at the plate and when he's on can be a plus defender. His age & price make him a nice choice at SS. But I agree 100% that the Twins don't really have a long-term solution at the position and that's not a good thing.

I'm not buying the suggestion this had anything to do with "attitude" issues. Bottom line: the Twins had a guy who was struggling, hadn't advanced his performance in the high minors, hadn't shown that he was anywhere close to being able to perform in the big leagues, and they thought they could get him past waivers. And they nearly did. (Think about how many teams passed on Benson before Texas claimed him) It's too bad, because I had high hopes for Benson and he seems like a good guy. But his last 2 seasons have been awful and he seems to have stalled out.

Gardy putting Mauer in the 2-hole in the absence of a hitter more qualified/able/ready to hit there is the sort of thing I'm going evaluate him on when deciding whether or not I think he should be back as manager. It's absolutely the right move for the club, but the sort of thing he's resisted in the past. If Dozier proves able to hit and get on base at a solid clip in the 8-spot, then he can moved up the order. But as a young hitter who struggled in his last stint, why put that pressure on him to bat 2nd? This move should be better for the team and for player development, and that's what I want to see. I hope to see this batting order frequently early on in the season: Hicks Mauer Willingham Morneau Plouffe Doumit Parmelee Dozier Florimon That could be a very nice hitting lineup if Plouffe hits more like he did in the summer than any other time, Parmelee carries over his AAA performance, and Dozier does better. All are possible, but the odds are at least one will go to crap, I'm afraid.

I think the assumption on Morneau is based on him him seeming pretty happy and settled here and never showing much desire to play anywhere else except in Canada. The relationship with Morneau & the team & the fans has always been good. It's a pretty reasonable assumption. I'm usually the first to put Gardy on the spot about how he handles young players, but in Parmelee's case I'll take him off the hook: Chris hadn't played a single game in AAA until last year, so sending him down after he struggled in MLB made perfect sense. I don't see a lot of "hate" for Parmelee, but there is some healthy skepticism. Personally, i think he's going to have a very nice year, but YMMV. The Twins are definitely in rebuild mode, but your analysis of what they will spend in the future is pure speculation. I don't see them ever becoming big players in free agency as long as TR is in charge; it seems pretty clear that he thinks that's where teams overspend and you're better off hoarding your resources for your own guys over getting a splashy FA. But there's no reason to believe that the Twins won't push the payroll over $100M again if they're in a position to contend. If Morneau is playing well and is healthy, I think they'll at least try to re-sign him assuming they aren't blown away by a trade offer.

The extra year and the lower price are exactly why, especially since while he's had some issues staying healthy there's nothing in there that throws up a medical red flag like Morneau's concussion issue where one pitch could end his career. Plus, the Twins have prospects coming up that are nearly ready in the OF, making it easier to move one. If Willingham is hitting like last season near the deadline there could be a nice market for him. You'd have to listen, especially if Arcia is raking in AAA and there's a decent offer. The Twins could get a mid-to-upper level prospect plus for Willingham in those circumstances, depending on what contenders need. Morneau is less likely to bring that return with free agency pending and less recent production & health. I still do not favor just giving either away for whatever we can get in a salary dump like some advocate.

Brock speaketh the truth. Morneau just won't have much trade value, even if he's ripping the cover off the ball because of his expiring contract and injury history. It's a really hard decision on Morneau. I think if he finishes the year healthy and hits he'll rate a multi-year deal from someone, so at a minimum if he's not dealt the Twins should make him a qualifying offer if Parmelee handles RF reasonably well this season. At least get some compensation if they're not going to sign him to a multi-year. I think there's still room on the roster for Morneau after this season, especially since everyone seems to think that Willingham will get dealt when the Twins are out of it by the trade deadline. Maybe a 3-year deal? next year's OF rotation becomes Arcia, Hicks, & Parmelee with Benson as the 4th, Parmelee backing up Morneau? Keep in mind, right now there's little depth at 1B in the Twins system behind Parmelee. Maybe Sano ends up there, but he still needs to learn the position and we know the Twins are hoping he can stick at 3B.

One of Gardy's skills as a manager is he's pretty good at dealing with the media and they like him. (It is a good skill to have) But it also means he gets protected from his flaws & failures more than other managers would. Local & even national media guys will talk about things like "intangibles" and running a good clubhouse, etc and assigning blame for the team's struggles elsewhere. Gardy's not a bad manager. But he's not a great one either. He's not particularly creative. He doesn't seem to pay enough attention to obvious stats. He prefers to keep his veteran players happy over challenging them to do something else that might favor the team. (last year's outfield alignment is a perfect example: Willingham was in LF because he was "more comfortable there", Span was in CF because "he likes it", and Revere was in RF because that was what was left, when the best defensive alignment was almost certainly Span in LF, Revere in CF, and Willingham in RF) Gardy hasn't always had a good track record with young players, so with a new wave of young guys coming up on this team it's a fair question to ask if he's going to be the right guy to lead the club with the next wave. He doesn't have the tactical skills or creativity to fall back on if he starts losing the team and not developing the prospects. Rosenthal doesn't care about any of that. He just looked at some stats, looked at the roster for the last couple of years, remembered he got his quotes and had pleasant interviews with Gardy and backed his guy. He also doesn't know much about Twins ownership; Jim Pohlad isn't going to can Terry Ryan in order to dump the manager, and Ryan isn't going to keep Gardy if he thinks the manager is the wrong guy to lead the team in the future.