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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    This is what I am afraid of. people are going to get overly excited about The Tease, only to have him fail us once again. It's super hard to trust that Kyle Gibson can be a reliable starter over a full season.
  2. jmlease1
    They're not great, but they are a good team, i think. the lineup is a good one, especially right now, with players having come into their own or cleared out of slumps. there's not a lot of easy outs there (Kepler is scuffling the most right now, but he's still not a guy any pitcher is going to feel good about grooving a fasball or hanging a curve to) The defense has generally been good all year, with elite play from Buxton and Mauer and the only real hole is Rosario/Grossman...who don't generally play the field at the same time. With Sano back, this is a playoff caliber lineup without question. The pitching is the issue. No one in the rotation scares you, the bullpen is cobbled together...it's a staff that we're trying to mix & match to be "good enough", which doesn't exactly make your socks roll up & down. They're a pretty good team. certainly an entertaining and fun team that's easy to root for. not a great team.
  3. jmlease1
    Yeah, this is the one that has me thrown. has Kyle Gibson figured it out or is this another mirage from the pitcher I like to call "The Tease"? He's been a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season, but the track record is so spotty it's hard to feel confident that we've finally got the Kyle Gibson we've been hoping for. Still gives up plenty of hits, but when he keeps the ball in the park, gets just a few extra Ks and a few less walks...he's an asset. but we've seen this before...is it sustainable?!?
  4. jmlease1
    I never stopped. The transition away from catcher was a little rough, but the drop off was more about the injuries than anything else. I never blamed him for the contract. It's great to see the bat returning to form and coupled with the Gold Glove defense he's giving us it's been a lot of fun to watch. Still not sold on Gibson, but it is good to see him turn in a strong performance against a better team. He's been much better the second half of the season, but he was brutal in the first half. Even now, he's still only had a game score more than 50 in 7 out of 24 starts. That ain't good.
  5. jmlease1
    We won't know if he's turned the corner for good" until we see how he starts next season, I suppose, but the signs are really encouraging. I'm especially pleased that's he's gotten himself into this great run now, before things like roster expansion and you have more teams packing it in for next year. Chris Parmelee fooled me with a September run that he couldn't carry over, but Buxton is raking in July-Aug. That's really good. Everything is on the upswing and it's wonderful to watch. The power we all hoped might be there is coming through good ABs, not him chasing it. He's still bunting for hits to keep the INF tight and how many times have you seen a fielder rush a play because they were worried about his speed beating something out or taking an extra base? I love it. And the defense...oh, my the defense. Absolutely spectacular. here's the best part: it can still get better: with more experience, he's going to get better at making his break on the ball, taking the best possible route, honing his arm and decision-making. This is some of the finest CF play we've ever had in MN, and we've had a lot of really terrific CF D over the years. I'm not ready to call him the best ever defensively in a Twins uniform...yet. but that's the sort of thing we're talking about. Best in the game, potentially one of the best all-time.
  6. jmlease1
    Kevin Brown does have a strong case, and I'd vote for him without a problem. Brown is especially interesting since his peak came after he turned 30; he should have won a Cy in 1998, and probably should have won it in 1996 too. (and I think if he does, his case gets a lot easier) Guidry is a little tougher: his peak was shorter than johan's and he actually had a longer career, while compiling a lower bWAR. His 1978 season is amazing, but he never cleared a 7 bWAR season again. Johan was the better pitcher in my mind. But Guidry certainly wouldn't be anywhere near the worst pitcher in the HoF if he ended up there some day.
  7. jmlease1
    Yeah, I think this is where Johan gets hurt. While Koufax in the regular season is a good comp, the post-season certainly helps him and tends to be one of those things that pushes the guys with shortened careers over the top. (terell davis anyone?) But I would put Johan in regardless. I would rather have the comet who was brilliant for 6-8 years and only lasted 10-12 than the grinder who compiled it over 18-20 but was never really thought of as the best pitcher in the game. There's been a push from a lot of people to include Jack Morris in the HoF (I'm not one of them no matter how wonderful 1991 was); I'd rather have Johan in there. Johan had more bWAR in less time, has "black type" in good categories splattered all over his resume (half of Jack's "black type" entries are ones you don't want, like Wild Pitches), and Johan's career ERA+ is better than any single season from Jack. The post-season issue is an area I can give Johan a pass: it's not his fault that when he hit his prime the teams only made the post-season twice, and as a starter he did just fine when he had the opportunity. One bad outing in his first playoff start, followed by 3 excellent playoff starts...and never got another chance. His other appearances were in relief in the really early days. That's bad luck, not a lack of ability to pitch in the post-season.
  8. jmlease1
    Meh, just another Gibby tease start. The 4A pitcher always looks good against a crap team that's already cooked for the season in august. Doesn't mean he can be a credible part of a contending rotation. I guess I'd be ok with the bunt if Polanco was bunting for a hit and not just doing it to sacrifice? I dislike the 8-man bullpen tremendously. Maybe it's what we need to mix and match our way to something resembling pitching success, but it doesn't seem warranted based on workload.
  9. jmlease1
    Yeah, I've given up on Gibson too. I can live with him being the 5th starter for the rest of the season, but otherwise it's time to move on. I hope Meija gets healthy soon and we can get some more starts out of him this season. He's shown promise, but needs to learn how to get deeper into a game. Wouldn't mind seeing Enns get a couple of additional starts too.
  10. jmlease1
    Really glad to see Mauer busting out of his slump (I still think he needs more time off and that he's getting ground down; he's played 6 straight and what, 9 of the last 10?). Also good to see them step on Detroit's throat here; play like this in the last series might have changed how the FO saw the rest of the season and kept them from selling (which I still think was the right move at the time). But dammit, this was another Gibson tease. Looks good, looks efficient, and then can't hold it together. I know he's pitched better overall lately, but I still don't see him as being a factor on a contending team.
  11. jmlease1
    It would help if this team could get back to a reasonable collection of pitchers and expand the bench for position players. Mauer probably needs a few more days off; he's played 6 out of 7 and his replacement was Adrianza. Oof. But he's wearing down a bit, which is clearly affecting him at the plate. So it's a shame that Vargas is getting dropped down again, because that's the spot where we need another guy right now. It's great to see Rosario playing so well right now. He's having a career year right now at the plate. Now, if we can just get his defense back up to speed...
  12. jmlease1
    I think they are auditioning Belisle for a possible Aug 31 waiver deal. a crap team isn't going to make a claim on him, so they might be able to sneak one more deal of a fungible reliever through...assuming that we don't keep winning! I mean, if Big Sexy keeps chucking it like this, the rotation starts working consistently into the 6th-7th innings, and the offense doesn't vanish into another collective funk...
  13. jmlease1
    I'm surprised Garver hasn't gotten his shot yet, but I really hope they see him as a roster player for next season. There's just no justifying keeping Gimenez over Garver at this point. Time to let the "kid" get some MLB run. I'm less impressed with tonkin; we've seen this act before. His fastball may be 95 but it's been awfully flat over the years and MLB hitters catch up to that pretty quickly. He's a AAAA pitcher, good enough to dominate at AAA, not good enough to be a consistent contributor at the MLB level. He's roster filler and we have too many other guys with real upside to continue churning through Tonkin. Pass. I'm intrigued by Park, really wonder if he's adjusting to US baseball. But at age 30, there's not much time left. Curtiss excites me. September call up and a spring training invite? sure, why not. I'm ok with a him getting a cup of coffee in september so the MLB staff can get a look at him early and start seeing where he fits for next year. he's had a great season so far, good for him.
  14. jmlease1
    I'm surprised they're not giving Garver a shot, especially since he has more positional flexibility, but maybe they're figuring they just don't have room for him to catch right now. I am happy to see them adding another damn bat, though. this 13 pitchers on the roster bit is absurd.
  15. jmlease1
    We are definitely looking at things differently. Contending teams are usually looking to add bullpen help because the volatility of relievers puts a hole in most team's relief corps. Beyond that, relievers are a fungible roster spot and hole can actually be filled at a trade deadline without crippling your squad. The asking price for a reliever is always less than a starting position player or starting rotation guy, so the opportunity cost is more than reasonable for a contender. If you're a playoff team it's ok to flip a lottery ticket prospect for a rental reliever. A back-end reliever has more value to a playoff team than the young prospect, and vice versa. The challenge in assembling a bullpen isn't in finding quality arms who can do the job, it's finding ones who can do the job consistently at a high level for multiple years in a row. teams usually only have 2-3 guys like that going into a season and then you have to start making bets. Kintzler is as likely as any of them to have a mediocre to crap year next season, but because saves are vastly overvalued, he'll be getting anywhere from $5-$9M to do it. We're better off building the core of the 'pen through development (a plan derailed through injury this season with Burdi, Chargois, May, etc).
  16. jmlease1
    Obvious only in that they weren't as bad as their record last year. I didn't see a lot of good starting pitching talent on the FA market last season, and that's easily the biggest hole. Adding a couple of mediocre guys on 3-4 year contracts at $10M+ per does little for me. The lineup had question marks, but also had young talent that needed to get tested at the MLB level, so wait & see makes sense there. The bullpen had issues, but I'm not a fan of flinging big money on relievers. So volatile, and so easy to find quality: just look at Kintzler! This season was promising in that the team wasn't awful out the gate and some of the younger players were showing flashes of their capability. They were still playing above their heads, much like last year they were playing below it. These guys don't look like org filler to me: they look like prospects, and we didn't give up much for them. Ynoa turned into 2 prospects that are a bit more advanced, instead of just a lottery ticket. Kintzler wasn't likely to be back as teams still overpay "proven closers" so why not get something for him, especially with several additional relief prospects looking to be ready soon? Look, if the team stands pat next offseason, then I'd question it, but they seem to have done ok here. No massive heists, but reasonable value.
  17. jmlease1
    Not surprised at all that Gibson dominated at AAA. The question is whether Kyle is a quality back of the rotation innings-eater in MLB or a AAAA player. Kyle Gibson is a tease. Game Score actually illustrates the problem with Kyle Gibson pretty nicely: overall this season he clocks in at 41. a couple of times per month he'll put together a start that will score in the mid-upper 50's and you'll start to think he's figuring it out...and then he'll turn in another game score of 15. (aka, brutal) He was awful for the first two months, roughly average the last two. The consistency just isn't there and he's nearly 30. He was like this last year too. One terrific start mixed in with 2 below average ones and a disaster. Next year he's arbitration eligible and despite his poor performance over the last 2 seasons, would still somehow be in line for a raise (arbitration is a silly system) to at least $5M, maybe $6M. I just don't see the value. Conclusion: Kyle Gibson is a AAAA pitcher.
  18. jmlease1
    I'm with you. A manager getting tossed before a game actually starts is Earl Weaver-Billy Martin kind of stuff. I'd love to know what got said to set someone off and why no one was able to calm things down before an ejection had to take place. (admittedly, I love this stuff. I swear, didn't Billy Martin and Stevie Palermo get into it before a game once and then the anthem started playing, so they stopped the fight, stood quietly next to each other with hats over their hearts until the anthem was over, and then got right back into screaming at each other.)
  19. jmlease1
    Bullpen is starting to round into shape...for the late innings. I feel fine about Duffy (despite a few recent struggles), Rogers (who has been great), Kintzler (also great), and I'm starting to feel like Hildenberger can be a solid guy in the 6th-7th inning with potential to be a set-up man for this team. That's 4 guys you can start to have some confidence in. The rest? Boshers is the only one I have any real hope for. I think if Chargois, Burdi, and May hadn't gotten injured we'd have already moved on from Belisle & Breslow and Pressly would be back in the minors trying to find himself. Frankly, I'm ready to walk away from Breslow regardless to get back a bench bat.
  20. jmlease1
    Loving Kepler. He's a great fit in RF and looks very comfortable over there. With him and Buxton in the lineup you can actually get away with playing someone like Grossman in the OF because they cover so much territory. I hope he continues to improve the BA and the OBP. I don't think he needs to become a 30 HR guy to have a great, all-star career but he'll be a bigger weapon in the lineup if he's ripping doubles all day and hitting .280.
  21. jmlease1
    I think Duffy will be fine. He didn't look too bad last night, just nibbled a little bit, missed a couple of spots, and lost a few ABs to some pretty good hitters. But there's a reason that Rogers is the preferred setup guy to get the team to Kintzler. Still ready to just move on from Belisle. We need to find some additional options in close games beyond Duffy, Rogers, and Kintzler and he ain't it. Glad to see Rosario continuing to hit out of the allstar break. Maybe he's found something, we'll see.
  22. jmlease1
    It's not so much about dumping Rosario for Granite as being ok with Granite getting a chance at the job. Rosario has more pop in his bat, but hasn't shown any consistent ability to control the strike zone so until this recent run has not been able to put up the OBP that you need in a MLB hitter. Granite has shown the ability to hit for average and does control the strike zone in the minors, and his defense is superior. Let the battle begin: whomever can perform more consistently towards the peak of their ability gets the starting job!
  23. jmlease1
    I dunno, Kepler and Sano could both get there this season based on bWAR and Buxton could even get there if his hitting is more like May/July for the rest of the season than April/June. both are showing all-star potential. Berrios is doing exactly what we're asking for this season, and I'm hopeful that he'll continue on this track. he gets into trouble when he nibbles too much and loses control of the strike zone, but I think that's correctable especially with a strong catcher like Castro working with him and calling a good game. Polanco is really struggling and could end up busting, but the good thing is we have multiple prospects moving up at middle INF positions. Rosario is going to need to keep hitting to hold his spot, because Granite is coming for him. but it's hard to see him taking another big leap with his flaws. (weirdest Rosario bit? look at his home-road splits this season. At home he hits like sano, on the road like Buxton in April)
  24. jmlease1
    Looks like the wrong graph posted; bullpen useage is not showing, it's a repeat of the leverage index. Berrios wasn't sharp but fought through it. Duffey didn't get a couple of calls he wanted and it made for a tough inning...but he hacked through it. Those are good learning experiences for young pitchers. Buxton's approach at the plate right now, shortening his swing, leaving the leg kick at home, and making good hard contact with the ball is having really nice results. I'd like to see him stick to this for a solid month without tinkering and see where he stands at the end of July.
  25. jmlease1
    The potential reinforcements rising up in the system in the bullpen are why you don't trade a good prospect for MLB bullpen help. Yes, the back end of the bullpen has really struggled this year, but there's cheap, young, talented options that are close. Unfortunately, that doesn't fix the rotation, which still needs significant work but we seem to be taking the smart approach. I hope Park can get it figured out in AAA and be a contender for the DH spot next year. Granite has to be a part of the OF next season. A mix-n-match outfield of Buxton, Granite, Kepler, and Rosario would be stellar defensively and certainly has the talent to be a plus unit offensively as well. Imagine the speed and fun you'd have with Buxton & Granite hitting 1-2!
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