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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    It's not, but it's typically a reliable predictor. Especially when you are projecting the next season because it may indicate a team more talented than it's record but unlucky or vice-versa. The Twins have done a good job under Ryan of keeping the bullpen solid, but it's also a group that looks likely for regression. Perhaps significantly more regression than people realize. What the pyth. shows is that, for whatever reason, the Twins were a bit lucky to finish with the record they had. (Odd as that sounds) I think they'll be roughly the same as they have been. What I don't understand is all the fuss in whether you think they'll be 4-5 games better or 4-5 games worse. Really that boils down to luck. Last year we had good luck to avoid 100 losses. Maybe this year we will again....or maybe not.
  2. TheLeviathan
    The disaster may have already happened in thinking Suzuki, Bartlett, and Kubel represented enough help for the offense. We're three years running in which these always-wrong pessimists have been right, despite any mountain-top preaching to the contrary. At this point, I think we're about 66 wins again, but I wouldn't rule out 100 losses given this roster and its depth. I also wouldn't begrudge anyone who did.
  3. TheLeviathan
    I'm not, you're using it as evidence for your sentiment and it isn't. The worst part is you're giving the same lecture many did last year about how awful people are for being pessimistic because "they just have to be better". Well, no, they don't and the pessimist label is too often thrown around as a way to diminish a legitimate opinion. I see an awful defense, an awful offense, and a bullpen I worry about regressing. It may very well be the worst of the bunch.
  4. TheLeviathan
    You're talking about a four game swing either way. I'd suggest the odds of 70 are about as good as 62. You keep implying their line is "in the middle" as a way to suggest a range of likely record. It's in the middle of betting sentiment. These are not the same thing.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Couldn't I, by your same logic, argue the fact that I continue to support the team and care about it inspite of my belief that the team won't be very good makes me a better fan? After all, I don't have to pretend it's all roses to care, right? Or, better yet, maybe we're all fans and trying to maintain a superiority about your fandom is juvenile and unnecessary.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Vegas is not "predicting" anything. They set a line they feel they can make money on and there are a multitude of factors in that. And given that they outperformed their pythagorean by 5 games, no, I don't think it's pessimistic. To get to 70 they'd essentially have to play 9 games better than last year. I'm not convinced (by a long shot) that this team is 9 wins better. I could see the argument for 3-5 wins which would essentially put them where they were last year.
  7. TheLeviathan
    We heard the same refrain and the same lecturing before last year. You should understand why many would need to see it to believe it.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Those "substantial upgrades" are represented by a pitcher who had an ERA+ of 78 last year, a guy coming over from the NL who has never been dominant, and a guy hoping for a bounceback from an injury. Let's not pretend we signed a couple aces here. They are probably a couple games better...but that's not so wide a margin to suggest a couple games worse is somehow preposterous.
  9. TheLeviathan
    They are likely to have a worse record if they play about the same as last year. You think it's impossible that the SP upgrades might be offset by a worse lineup and bullpen?
  10. TheLeviathan
    Except there are serious flaws in your reasons. Mauer will play in more games, but that doesn't mean it'll be an improvement on last year. In the games Mauer missed he was replaced by Pinto's superhuman September. Willingham is old and breaking down. It's more likely 2012 is his reality than 4 years ago or even 2 years ago. And it ignores how many at-bats this team might feed to Suzuki, Kubel, Florimon, Plouffe, Hermann, etc. that might be as bad or worse than their complements last year. Dozier, Arcia, and Hicks are really the only hopes the Twins have for improvements and there is reason to be dubious of all three. And reason to be optimistic as well.
  11. TheLeviathan
    We also heard the same thing before last season and by all measures but the actual W-L, you could argue the team was, in fact, worse last year than the previous year. This after an offseason of insistence that there was " no way" we could pitch any worse. This could be a 97, 98, 99 loss team and actually play better overall than last year.
  12. TheLeviathan
    I wouldn't go as far as that last part, but the rest is spot on. At this point, what has this club earned but doom and gloom? Especially with what the offense looks like. It could be historically awful.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Frankly, I have a hard time with anyone who feels optimism is a requirement to be a "real fan". I don't think it's fair to throw a criticism like that around just because people are taking a sober view.
  14. TheLeviathan
    That's the problem though...this is acknowledging there is no knowledge or expertise here. Just puppeteering. I don't think this is about having a proper percentage of negative thought or a balance of positive/negative conversation. It's about having independent thought. Journalism should be independent and should be disconcerting that it's not.
  15. TheLeviathan
    The offense and defense both still suck. They just upgraded their pitching staff...but how much depends largely on two pitchers having better years than last year. (Hughes and Pelfrey) I think their record ends up being roughly the same, which would constitute an improvement by pythagorean standards. I would, however, like to change my over/under pick to under. I don't think this team wins 70.
  16. TheLeviathan
    I'll be sad if we have to cut ties with Parmelee.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I think this is spot on. I need to see A LOT of improvement from him in CF to think him more than average as a ceiling at this point.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, it's almost comical out there. There was a heavy contingent of Twins fans who felt this year was going to be his peak value. To me, that was always a preposterous notion after that flukey first year.
  19. TheLeviathan
    His minor league splits were even dominant against lefties. The bulk of his power production has always come from facing lefties. It's why the man, in a utility and platoon role, could be highly valuable. Delaying that another year is another blow from the Sano injury.
  20. TheLeviathan
  21. TheLeviathan
    Well I hope that Antony comment was just in the spirit of keeping up the competition and not a sign of throwing rain on my Gibson parade.
  22. TheLeviathan
    This guy was a one month fluke. I'm going to be thrilled when he's in the role he belongs in- valuable reserve - and not everyday starter.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Glad he cleared. I still think he can have some value.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Shocked! And ecstatic to be wrong about this........huzzah for another reason to tune in to this team!!!
  25. TheLeviathan
    Never had that problem. Not even once.
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