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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    Our rotation should be crying themselves into a bottle tonight.
  2. TheLeviathan
    10.5M? Holy schnikes.....why on earth that much?
  3. TheLeviathan
    I kind of hope the Twins bring Swarzak back as a potential reliever, but Duensing is no longer needed at the price he's going to demand. I just wish we would've moved him and Fien last year while they were effective and started auditioning the kids in AAA.
  4. TheLeviathan
    1) That is the most optimal situation. The least optimal, by contrast, is you just lost 50M in available salary over 6 years. 2) Arbitration growth is relatively steady already 3) This also assumes Dozier is a stud into his 30s. Chief's right, handing guaranteed contracts around when you don't have to is precisely what got us Blackburn's contract. Is Dozier likely a better player? Sure. That doesn't make the thinking any less problematic. Let him earn what he earns in arbitration and worry about the FA years when you have to. You're putting the cart a mile before the horse to sign him now.
  5. TheLeviathan
    You should probably go back and look at this, the trade record isn't as sterling as you think. That's more of a perceptual bias because Beane is a very talented GM. Just to name one: the Hudson deal was pretty much an utter disaster.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I think 2.5 years of data to make a decision is WAY better than 1.5. That's when I'd like to answer that question and I think the Twins would be wise to do the same.
  7. TheLeviathan
    We are less than two years removed from him being a sub 600 OPS player and an afterthought. So, yeah, he could be.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Except that's exactly what happens to many players like Dozier.
  9. TheLeviathan
    I wouldn't have done either of those deals either and in general I think the trend towards these contracts is a fad that is going to die off quickly when teams start realizing how infrequent it is that you get even a decent return on your investment.
  10. TheLeviathan
    Saving 20M over 6 years is pretty close to what I said - " a couple million a year". Does it matter? Sure and if we were talking about Santana repeating 2014 for the next two years I'd hop on board in a heartbeat for this type of deal. But your position assumes he continues to be above average and his arb. prices increase to reflect that, but that scenario is hardly a given. So while the Arb. prices MIGHT get bigger you are guaranteed the price on him gets bigger if you extend him. Production or not and I don't see the need to guarantee him that much money when the team has so much control over him left. Also, Dozier has had one above average year, not two. He was average in 2013 and above average in 2014. We'd be paying 50-60 million in guaranteed money for what amounts to 1.5 seasons of good play for a guy who didn't have an elite prospect status. I think I can safely say I'd never be comfortable with that situation going forward regardless of who the player is or how they profile.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I was just using baseball reference for those 10 comparisons. I also didn't highlight him for the injury reasons, Espinosa and Crosby do remind me a lot of Dozier on the other hand. But let's be clear - Dozier has been above average for only 1.5 years. He was pretty bad to start 2013 but then came out of nowhere in June and August of that year. I'm not sure why that deserves 50+ million when your hand is far from being forced.
  12. TheLeviathan
    First, I'd argue the longer the deal the less valuable he'll be in trade. Span had value because it was a short deal that wouldn't hang over your head for long. Signing Dozier to such an extension would, for all intents and purposes, make him untradeable for at least the bulk of the deal. Second, I'd also quibble with your conclusion at the end that you can subtract that 20M and suggest we're buying Dozier for 5M a year. It doesn't work that way - the 75 to 55 comparison is fine, the point about 5/35 is just erroneous and misleading. Brian Dozier has accomplished one season in which he was an above average major league baseball player and that one season was very erratic. If a repeated 2014 bumps his arb. cost by an average of 1-2M for the next few years I can handle that and talk extension at the end of the year when we have more data on what he'll be. If you want more reasons to consider that, please look at the ten players Dozier's career is most similar to thus far: Dale Sveum (962) Bobby Crosby (957) Danny Espinosa (953) Damian Jackson (952) Ted Lepcio (950) Tim Teufel (949) Bernie Allen (948) Don Zimmer (945) Gary Alexander (941) Andre Rodgers (940) Yeah, Bobby Crosby and Danny Espinosa aren't guys I want to toss 60M at because we're happy with 1.5 seasons of baseball.
  13. TheLeviathan
    His OPS is largely HR driven and that has proven streaky. I like the way Dozier plays but is he so good we should rush into an extension years before we need to? What's best case scenario? We save a few million? I guess I don't see that outweighing the risk. I'd advocate that for an elite talent. A good talent? No thanks.
  14. TheLeviathan
    Extending your relationship with Plouffe by a year doesn't change your standing in any way. You MIGHT save a little bit of money at the risk of feeling it's wasted at some later date. Are we so far removed from Blackburn or Joe Mays that we think these sorts of moves have no downside? I liked it with Span and even with Perkins, but it's not always a good idea.
  15. TheLeviathan
    This thread reflects our reality the last four years: a guy plays competently and we fall all over ourselves to hand them millions for half a decade. Let's let the career play out a bit and assess his value when we aren't awful.
  16. TheLeviathan
    They're rare because the union heavily pressures against them. I've tried, largely in vain, to get people to stop suggesting these because they just don't happen with regularity for a reason. Only in hockey and football is it accepted practice,in baseball and basketball it is taboo.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Except there can be serious consequences to not waiting. Dozier's offensive production has been very streaky and you run the risk in paying him huge money now that he becomes the Twins version of Allen Craig or many other guys who got paid too soon. There is just something about Dozier's game I don't trust Longterm.
  18. TheLeviathan
    I'd wait for two reasons 1) Make sure Dozier is consistent enough to warrant an investment and 2) Shorten the extension and/or buy out an extra year. I just want more data on what Dozier exactly is before I'd be comfortable giving him that much money.
  19. TheLeviathan
    I would argue that the coaching staff and general manager didn't push nearly enough for the guys with the talent to do that. I think there was a belief that you didn't need to have that kind of talent in order to be an effective pitcher. It was almost like the Twins were trying to target a market inefficiency but went too far. Furthermore, I don't think that strategy would've been employed without heavy influence from the field staff. So while Anderson's general philosophies were fine, the problem was that they went too far with it from both a team-building and coaching perspective.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I agree and that's why Anderson had to go. Somewhere along the way a sound philosophy became an offtrack dogma.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I don't think there is a dissonance. As pitchers you want to be ahead in the count and not walking people and as hitters you want to avoid swinging at pitches out of the zone. The problem is that the Twins' pitching philosophy became too overzealous and there wasn't enough "good" strikes and guys able to miss bats in the zone. "Pitch to contact" was all about enabling weak contact and staying ahead of hitters, something all great pitchers do. We just started to believe any old schmuck could accomplish that if they had "good control".
  22. TheLeviathan
    The key to changing the Twins mentality isn't to stop pounding the zone - Anderson was spot on with that strategy. But at some point you have to recognize that the best pitchers pound the zone and finish hitters themselves. We built rotations, targeted arms, and pushed players to become only half of that equation. I don't know where it went off course but hopefully a change sets it back on track again.
  23. TheLeviathan
    I also worry that at Rios' age those nagging injuries are more of the norm rather than something he can bounce back from.
  24. TheLeviathan
    +100
  25. TheLeviathan
    It's hard to argue a counterfactual, especially when you agree with the premise. i'm not opposed to rushing some kids, but many people are recommending that become the default way of filling positions. I'm not comfortable with that. And I'm certainly not ready yet to declare Santana and Vargas shining beacons of success with that philosophy. We got a ways to go on that one.
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