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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    And yet despite having a consistently bottom tier farm they keep finding ways to make big trades. People make WAY too much of their bad farm. I expect that when the wheels come off in Detroit that it is going to be a disaster, but I'm hard pressed to see that happening yet. But it is likely to happen in the next three years.
  2. TheLeviathan
    We disagree and that's fine and it's a fair point that their bullpen was so good that they look like regression candidates, but their key offensive players also are highly unlikely to be that awful for the first four months too. The Shields loss and how the rest of their staff cover for that could be the biggest swing. Either way, what tends to bug me in an analysis like this is when people apply a different standard to the opposition than they would the Twins. If we were Royals fans you wouldn't hear many of the arguments in this thread and I think it's important to try and keep some balance in evaluating them.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Your argument isn't fair because it assumes they have to make up 9 wins. If their skillset already puts them ahead of their pyth...then they aren't looking for 9 wins, but probably more like 6 or 7. Then you have to factor in what they did that will likely replace Shields. (Volsquez is probably another 1 off that) And then they are counting on progress of young players - the same kind you and others assume the Twins can count on for a win or two as well I'm guessing. So is 9 really a fair characterization? It seems to me 4-5 games on pessimistic side or roughly treading water with 89 wins on the optimistic side is more fair to say. To me, their biggest threat to their competitiveness isn't losing Shields but the typically erratic play of bullpens. If that group isn't elite, then they quickly shift to more pessimistic projections.
  4. TheLeviathan
    Sure, they were five better than their pyathgorean record - you think that was purely luck and not the margin of error I'm talking about? Good defense and a great bullpen shortens games. I'd argue that's a classic example of making your own luck.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Very good information, it basically backs up everything Parker said.
  6. TheLeviathan
    You think everything went great for them last year? They had a hell of a late run that fueled them, but this is a team that also had awful campaigns from virtually every key offensive player on their roster for most of the season. As soon as a few of them started to put things together they took off. Losing Shields hurts and their offseason was less than impressive, but they walk in with some serious strengths that are still amongst the best in all of baseball. That gives them more margin for error than many others.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Eric summarized it nicely, but when one of your team's strengths is defense that shelters you considerably from regression. Shouldn't we, as Twins fans, know that as well as any? The Royals also field a defense far better than any we did in the 2000s, that's going to insulate them from sliding too far off what they did last year. The real question for the Royals is how do the complement their defense? Barring major injuries they are pretty much a .500 team just with how well they play D and shut teams down with their bullpen. I think the real keys are their young offensive players. Hosmer was a much better hitter the second half of last year. Moustakas had some flashes of what he is capable of and they still have some solid players in Perez, Gordon, and others. If that offense can pull itself out of being in the "dreadful" category, they may actually get better. Cleveland, in my eyes, is the team to watch out for.
  8. TheLeviathan
    Right, but as Parker said - the Twins could have taken anyone still on the board after them so whether you pick 5 or 10 after is really irrelevant. Given the choice the Twins made, relative to their options, they have underwhelmed. You'll note in his initial post that Parker said that the Red Sox were one of the teams we have done better than so far.
  9. TheLeviathan
    Right, but that's why Parker's analysis is helpful. It eliminates the limitations and lets us look at our choices relative to others. What you're doing by going back 5 choices, Parker already did embedded in his comparison.
  10. TheLeviathan
    There was talent further down from 5 behind us though. It's not like right at our pick the well ran completely dry. I found more than a few guys 10-20 picks later that look to be very good players. I agree that adding in Garza or Plouffe would have likely shifted things, but I'm not sure why that matters. A team that puts this much emphasis on the draft can't afford a stretch of drafting like this no matter when you want to pull the years. That's the problem, now we have to speculate why. Part of that answer could be thin talent in those drafts, but that alone isn't explanation enough.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I read through these options again and I just can't help but think this position is going to implode this team's chances. I hope I'm wrong, but it's such a critical spot for this team as it is composed and the options are just dreadful.
  12. TheLeviathan
    Exactly. If you're going to put all your eggs in that basket....you better have a damn fine bunch of eggs or you're going to quickly cause problems for your ability to stay competitive.
  13. TheLeviathan
    It's fair to point that out, but Parker's approach normalizes some of that better than just a random pick of how many guys behind them were also busts. Many of these drafts look to have been poor in talent in general, but that's why a comparison relative to other teams is still fairly reliable. So, yes, the Twins made bad choices in some thin drafts that many other teams struggled with as well. Parker's analysis just shows that even in a field of bad choices, the Twins were subpar.
  14. TheLeviathan
    I am baffled that the Twins can look at this list of options they've given themselves in CF and feel comfortable.
  15. TheLeviathan
    Sometimes you have to identify the problem before you can examine how it happened. At this point we're still having trouble acknowledging something went wrong for that stretch. I wonder if a lot of it was just a new regime moving in to the scouting department and the difficulty with that transition.
  16. TheLeviathan
    I'm not sure why we keep calling this sample "arbitrary". I would imagine these years were chosen because they are the most relevant to our recent struggles. Either way, we shouldn't be attacking this as some kind of negative propaganda. Any six year stretch of draft failures, no matter when they happen, is going to be problematic for your organization. It's useful to examine why you hit a drought like that, especially when the farm system is so vital to your success.
  17. TheLeviathan
    I think that fast start for confidence on a young team is critical. At the same time, I think the best teams do things consistently and that's where I struggle with this team. The two constants that can best drive your team to success are good pitching and good defense. I'm pretty sure one of those is already a mess waiting to happen and it could negatively impact the other. One thing that 2001 team did well was play defense. They didn't make a lot of mistakes, played good ball, and gave themselves a chance to win a lot of games. All the talking points Gardy is known for that have actual value to winning baseball. The last few years this team has rolled over bad pitching and bad defense and it has taken them completely out of far too many games. (And often shattered their confidence and optimism) If the winning is going to start, we have to stop taking ourselves out of games so quickly and emphatically.
  18. TheLeviathan
    It's not even a clear three months, it's like mid-June to mid-August and that's only if you don't coach or do other things. It's not like it's three scot-free months. So yeah, you basically have to be a mercenary for construction crews or Green Giant or something to find summer work. That's something you do when you're 16, not 36.
  19. TheLeviathan
    In addition to being unfair that they can't negotiate a larger piece of the pie, giving MiLB is an investment in the game. If you're an athlete, do you really want to sit around making peanuts for five years when the other leagues offer substantially more? Baseball has a massive pie to divide, it's ridiculous in every possible way and for all parties, to keep giving such a tiny slice to a vital component of the games health. Also, as a teacher, the myth about getting a summer job is way overplayed. That doesn't happen because it's almost impossible to arrange for the vast majority.
  20. TheLeviathan
    Thrylos is right - the minor league fix has to be from both the union and the league as both have worked actively to create the abysmal situation we know today. That, to me, should be the top priority of anyone in charge of baseball.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Nope, rattling pitchforks.
  22. TheLeviathan
    I'm confused by how people are supposed to earn or lose their spot. Are people seriously suggesting we take ST results seriously? The point is that May should be first in line barring injury or opposing teams batting 1.000 off of him.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, we don't have to tar and feather Terry Ryan and the other decision makers. Just, you know, make them eat Lutefisk until they agree to reverse their decision.
  24. TheLeviathan
    Can we all agree to peacefully riot if it's Pelfrey?
  25. TheLeviathan
    Great article. It amazes how many people stilly underplay the impact a bad defense can have on a pitcher.
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