TheLeviathan

Every appearance with Barreiro confirms this. Can also confirm he has openly said he doesn't watch the Twins.

This is a really good summation and argument for the gamble.

I was speaking about the dozens here who insist on categorizing Buxton as merely unlucky rather than having a an established history of problems.

The guys who were starting aren't the Plan Bs? Or is there some particular season you're referencing?

I totally understand the David Ortizian Dread. However, framing his injuries as "unlucky" is only honest if you choose to completely ignore the pre-2021 past. And....well....I don't find that to be a terribly fair way to frame things. "Conveniently selective" comes to mind. You can be for the gamble without selectively re-writing history. This guy's prime, 25 year old freaky amazing athleticism has not saved him from being utterly brittle. That is part of the equation. It's 95% negative for the idea of an extension. But I'll bet on the combo of that 5% discount in cost and the Hail Mary it might all come together. As @gunnarthorsaid....they can afford to roll those dice. But let's not pretend that we're not betting on a longshot here.

The rest of the league didn't seem eager to sign him either, something in their scouting/analytics was telling them to steer clear. I guess we should have too.

This is the mass TD delusion I'm referring to. It's like this board needs a damn intervention. I would prefer not to repost Van's list but I feel like it's necessary: 2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP 2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP 2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP 2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP 2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP 2021: Hip injury/broken wrist You know what's not a good predictor of health? See above. Stop arguing that his most recent injury, while unlucky, is reflective of his situation. I'd feel BETTER if he had a bunch of consistent injuries to the same part of his body or unlucky breaks. But he doesn't. He's basically managed every injury known to man. He's amassed roughly 3 seasons of PA in 7 SEASONS. The argument that "we can't predict the future" is misleading because....of course we can't. What we use to predict is the past and play the odds. The past has given us clear information: this guy cannot be counted on to be healthy with any reasonable certainty. If we get lucky and he magically stops this 7 year run of consistent problems? Great. But for the love of all that's good in the world....can we stop sticking our heads in the sand? Or spinning this history as "unlucky". In his physical prime he's been out 60% of his career. You know what IS predictive? Age doesn't help that. As I said.....gamble away, but let's stop the spin-jobs. I want to resign him, but I'm going in eyes wide open: he is a massive injury risk and almost certain to miss significant time during that extension.

His impact when on the field is unquestionably important. I do wonder if the Twins' three decade long policy of not having a 4th outfielder who can play CF might be partly to blame too. In all seriousness....when was the last time we had a CF plan B? Even pre-Buck?

Spoken like a true Minnesota sports fan.

540 PAs in 3 seasons. That about says it all. Or I can let @Vanimal46do the legwork here: 2015: Sprained left thumb, 46 GP 2016: Knee contusion/back spasms, 92 GP 2017: Groin strain/migraines, 140 GP 2018: Migraines/fractured toe/strained wrist, 28 GP 2019: Wrist contusion/concussion/left shoulder dislocation/labrum surgery, 87 GP 2020: Concussion symptoms, left shoulder injury, sprained left-foot, 39 GP 2021: Hip injury/broken wrist I like how we keep spinning it as a positive that we can afford a guy with this laundry list of missed games. For the record, I'd offer him an incentivized deal because I'm a gambler, but my god is it hard around here to pierce the delusion that he's just "unlucky" or that magically 30+ year old human bodies get super tough and injury resistant. You'd think the dude's mutant powers suddenly kick in or something from the way people talk around here. All for the gamble, but we could do with less spin. It's dizzying.

Yeah, put me in the "I'll believe it when I see it" College athletics and the exploitation they have gotten away with for decades is bordering on deserving the word "evil". It's corrupt as hell. I'm glad some things are moving in the right direction but it's long overdue and it had to be forced on them by the courts. They get zero trust/hope from me until results start happening.

What alternative would you suggest? Note that baseball already puts many teams at a sizable financial disadvantage for established players, that should be a factor in any alternatives presented. I'm curious because while I understand the impetus for your position, when I consider the alternatives it reminds me of an old line in politics: "The draft is the worst way to do this. Except for all the other ways"

That's the exact line that stuck out to me too. Also....sure, pick 33 is roughly equal to pick 32....but pick 33 is someone's SECOND choice. They have two players drafted at that point. How is it at all fair to make a comparison of the value of a draft position and then just ignore the rounds? I mean, can I slam dunk my argument by comparing 4th rounds to 22nd rounds too? It's a cooked argument that makes zero sense. Mike's chart makes abundantly clear that having a better draft position has a significant value to the team. Which is obvious....you ALWAYS have more available players than the teams after you. The Boogeyman Dodgers GM is always picking after you. You always get to choose your players, per round, before them. What's the alternative? Let them make all 70 of their picks before anyone else just so we aren't scared to pick in their wake?

How can anyone argue with an assertion that 45 + 9 = 9 + 4? Ironclad math.

You'd think such a chart wouldn't be necessary. Nevertheless, I appreciate it. It clearly fails to account for how scary the Dodgers GM is or the vaunted Bullhorn of Draft Perfection the Yankees use that reverberates a dozen picks in their wake rendering all ability to compare picks to their appropriate round an impossibility. To such things I'm afraid even fangraphs is powerless.

Well....I'd rather have him that Weatherly and Wonnum all the time. More pass rushers the better, if he still has anything left.

Why is there no poll yet on how his next injury happens? That's the only thing that matters: the guy staying on the field until the end of the baseball season. Another injury, even an unlucky one, makes the entire situation even harder to work with.

Pick 1 had a much larger player pool than pick 30. Pick 31 has a much larger available player pool than 60. So on and so forth. This isn't hard. This isn't controversial. It's merely not the contortionist act you're attempting. Analysis that isn't relevant and isn't informative ought to be dismissed. It's distracting at best, disingenuous at worst. You will always have to select after those teams, pointing this out isn't "sound analysis" it is literally redundant information irrelevant to the point. It is simply an indisputable fact that picking higher in the draft affords you more opportunity and options. That has value. Again, how a team leverages that value is up to them.

I sincerely hope you weren't harmed in this brazen stretching attempt. Higher draft pick affords priority and access by the nature of the exercise. That player you imply a smarter team takes in front of you? You could have them first, before that team. Whether it was pick 1, 12, or 29. That's the access advantage. And it exists at every round because you pick from a larger pool than everyone after. That value exists independently of a team's ability to maximize it.

Lots of top 5 picks fail. I'd still rather pick before 25 teams than before 18 of them.

No one argued that draft position = guaranteed success. What it guarantees is that you get to pick your players before other teams can. That isn't just a first round advantage, it's an advantage you hold in every round. So, yes, the baseball draft does allow for some 30th round steals, but draft position helps increase your odds in that round too. As a fan, we were subjected to months of absolutely awful baseball. One of the few payoffs for that is draft position. This team, in a two week stretch in August and by wailing on the Orioles, may have parked itself at 12 instead of 5 or 6. That is significant and next year when the draft rolls around it's going to sting a bit.

You cannot "just as well" get talent like you describe. Having better draft position is demonstrably better odds for draft success. This isn't an opinion. Of course they should play hard and if playing a young team leads to wins and worse draft position? Fine. Disappointing to have such an awful season not land a premium draft position, but fine.

Well....who wants to go to battle in 2022 with the same guys? Your argument is confusing and I think it's a strawman. Who is arguing for only a shortstop? The argument is to put the most money towards that position, not just sign a SS and walk away like the mission was accomplished. Of course we need more, who is arguing otherwise?

Is Joe Ryan's delivery deceptive to lefties? A lot of those strike three swings/takes look like pitches major leaguers would hit, but the guys at the plate seemed really fooled. Anyone a Joe Ryan expert yet?

Seems to me we've spent 6 months being a more stable country with lots of things happening that are demonstrably awesome for most Americans. If Biden needs to hand the reigns to Kamala....I'm fine with that. I don't see what there is to fret about. Joe Biden has never been the type to put himself before his country. We elected a genuinely good person, let's just be happy about that and let things happen as they happen. I won't feed inane right-wing talking points any oxygen.