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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    I think ashbury and mike answered this well, but I don't understand why it was a question at all. So much of the discord in here feels like people are tailoring the context of this trade in strange ways that omit key reasons why it makes so much sense to pull this trigger. Take just a few: 1. Berrios has made it abundantly clear he isn't interested in an extension. Short of "Pay me 5 years and 200M or I'm going to let the Yanks wine and dine me"....there isn't much mystery about his intentions. That means in one season and two months you have as much control over who he pitches for as every other MLB team. 2. Trading him at the next deadline will dramatically reduce the return. I can't emphasize dramatically hard enough. 3. If your plan is to outbid the Yankees....you get your shot in 2022 I guess. Plus the guys we just got! 4. Jose Berrios and a bunch of question marks is not a contending caliber staff. 2022 doesn't have enough ready starting pitchers to supplement Jose. Now, let me add a few personal contextual bits I think are worth noting: 1. The Twins just got more for Jose Berrios than the Nats got for Scherzer AND Trae Turner with a similar level of control. 2 I'd trade Berrios for Turner 102 times out of 100 straight up. 3. The Twins could, conceivably, turn around this offseason and make two separate deals with these guys as lead parts of the package and come back with two arms as good (or nearly as good) as Jose. This is what could happen because now the Twins have more assets to make the 2022 team better than one guy who has made it his outward goal to bet on himself.
  2. TheLeviathan
    Signing him to a one year deal with a guarantee he walks in a year? Sure, if we are a piece from a World Series I say absolutely it's a HR. But that isn't our situation.
  3. TheLeviathan
    That depends on how we go forward, same as it did before we made the trade.
  4. TheLeviathan
    I want to point out the irony here as well: The Twins acquired Jose Berrios via a comp pick for letting a major league player walk from their team. They made a business decision about a player who was still productive and a fan favorite that ultimately was best for the club long term. And now here we are with Berrios. It's not his fault, but when things don't come together it doesn't help to double down on a failed attempt.
  5. TheLeviathan
    Yet....the suck has happened. And will continue to happen. If you're somehow squeezing joy out of this god awful season I have confidence you'll continue to find it if you're so determined. Doing nothing was going to continue to result in one good pitcher and a bad baseball team. You seem to grasp this notion, what I cant' grasp is why you would like it to endure.
  6. TheLeviathan
    I seriously don't understand this one...but I'll take it!
  7. TheLeviathan
    Failed to get value here, not a good look. Maybe we'll see an extension, that would save some face here.
  8. TheLeviathan
    This is really well said. Yeah, it sucks to lose Jose. He's probably my favorite Twin, but the Twins pitching wasn't winning anything with him and he wasn't staying. You can lament the state of things without letting it color your ability to see the path forward. The path forward for this team was to move on, acquire assets, and rework the roster. We might be able to flip Marten for a pitcher. Maybe Woods-Richardson will step right in. Same with some of the other arms we added. We weren't going to progress being stagnant. Take big swings. Some of you would've been on a Padres board 5 years ago singing the ballads of James Shields and the worthlessness of prospects like Tatis. (Best case scenario of course, but you can't hit roster homeruns without taking swings) It's ok to feel crappy about the state of things, but some sense of reality would be nice.
  9. TheLeviathan
    Winning will put butts in the seat. Staying with a bad team and changing nothing will not change that.
  10. TheLeviathan
    That's different than the last four months....how? I guess we can just stay with a bad team and just hope that we magically become not bad? I don't understand this mentality. The disappointment is already a reality, no reason to double down out of obstinance.
  11. TheLeviathan
    Martin is exactly the guy I was eye-balling if the Jays were the team that landed him. I preferred San Diego's SS, but I'll take this return!
  12. TheLeviathan
    Hopefully, by the all-star game next year, younger and much more promising with guys like Duran, Balazovic, Ryan, etc. If not the conversations get a lot more difficult across the organization.
  13. TheLeviathan
    I dig that the Blue Jays are still in this. They have some nice pitching and infield options that fit well with this team. Not a pure shortstop, but some dudes that are appealing. But a deal to San Diego with Abrams as the centerpiece is my favorite option.
  14. TheLeviathan
    I'd be curious how you feel about Lovecraft after you finish it. We haven't started it, but I've been wary to because I've heard it fell off the cliff midway through the season.
  15. TheLeviathan
    I don't think it's wise to trade an OL with experience for a 7th rounder.
  16. TheLeviathan
    With FA netting us Goligoski, Kulikov, and other filler parts it seems pretty obvious to me that Guerin wants to change the locker room culture and take a run at a cup in about 3 years. 2024 the dead cap is gone in time to start extending the young players they are banking on. This team is clearing the decks so that Rossi, Khusnutdinov, Boldy, Khovanov, O'Rourke, Addison, and Wallstedt are the future of the team and have a chance to get big minutes. I expect a fun team, but probably not a Cup contender for a few years.
  17. TheLeviathan
    Gallo will be launching in New York.
  18. TheLeviathan
    Vital? No, but he's not being paid like he's vital. He's being vastly underpaid for how useful, versatile, and good he is. Plus, we've seen the upside there too. I think all you'll get for Kepler is people trying to steal an undervalued asset, you won't get someone to pony up.
  19. TheLeviathan
    Maybe they are ok with that. They shouldn't be.
  20. TheLeviathan
    I really don't understand the reasoning here for preferences. I'm not in the boat that thinks we have to deal Donaldson to acquire pitching (though...it wouldn't hurt), but in order of preference I can't see any good reason to keep Donaldson over either of those guys. Kepler is younger, cheaper, healthier (most of the time), and a necessary piece to have around as Buxton insurance. Rogers is the only part of our bullpen that isn't god awful and he's also cheaper, younger, and healthier. Donaldson is a good hitter, he wasn't a bad signing, but he has a chance to fetch us something interesting before his legs make that contract look ugly. Now is the time to move him IMO.
  21. TheLeviathan
    I think Kiriloff is a 1B, not an OF. The team still has a spot for Kepler and, let's face it, if Buxton is our CFer we better damn sure have a guy that can slide over too.
  22. TheLeviathan
    I appreciate the sobering reality you provided on Buxton. I think it's too pessimistic, but a lot of folks here at TD also are way too far off the deep end the other way. If you read a lot of these comments you'd think they've built churches to Buxton and his baseball career. So if nothing else, you're trying to balance the boat and I appreciate that. But contracts are not just given based on what a player has done, but the potential reward they provide as well. There is very clear risk to Buxton as you lay out, but there is obviously so much reward too. The Twins can't offer 3/35, it's not enough guarantees. If they cut the term down that far, they have to bump the AAV or it isn't worth it for Buck. By adding more years they've been able to cut down on the AAV, which I think is the better way to go in balancing this risk vs. reward.
  23. TheLeviathan
    Yeah, I agree it wasn't a good example, but there are good examples of contracts that hamstrung a team. Dexter Fowler, Albert Pujols, etc. It can have a demonstrably bad outcome for your team to sign someone who takes a big chunk of your budget and adds nothing. Which is why it's absolute nonsense for some in these threads to suggest 150M guaranteed is the low end of what he'd be offered. No one wants to get Pujols'd. Byron and his agent seem to understand this, which is why we seem to be in a battle of 80M vs. 110M with at least one side expressing optimism we can get a deal done. The Twins are in the ballpark of a fair offer, let's hope they are willing to bridge the gap, even if the risk is high.
  24. TheLeviathan
    I can get behind almost all of this. He is valuable when on the field and I do think the Twins would be making a worthy gamble to give him 100M plus incentives. Where I will disagree is the idea that 15/20M in dead money isn't a problem, it almost certainly would be. But I believe it is a gamble worth taking if you can keep the guarantees around 15M per year. Even then, I wouldn't put good odds on us looking back at the contract in 2026 and feeling good about it.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I'd be guaranteeing 52M. If Byron Buxton thought he could guarantee himself a lot more than what the Twins are offering.....they wouldn't be actively negotiating around the known offers. As Hayes implied in his story, the team and Byron agree on large components of the contract the team offered. That alone should tell people what the actual market might pay. Turning down close to 100M has a very high risk of being the last time that much money is on the table for him.
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