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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I like Vargas but he is a risk to struggle this year. Regardless of that he should be up on opening day for an extended period w/o looking over his shoulder. And if Vargas needs to be sent down the Twins still have a catcher that can't catch but can hit. An OF'er that is abysmal poor in the OF. A 39 yr old LF'er. A 1Bman made of glass. An elite bat first prospect with a solid 3B man in front of him. With a different roster that didn't have too many DH's and non-fielders in fielding positions Quentin would be an interesting target. I disagree with the Twinkie Town article. For one the Padres are almost certainly willing to pick up some of the money. For two Maybin was actually a solid defensive/offensive CF'er at one point in his career and he's still only 27. Part of his recent struggles are due to injury although he does have a poor plate approach. Venable is the better option to target from the Padres since he could actually be a stopgap CF'er unlike Quentin or Smith.
  2. kab21
    It doesn't matter how young a team is when you have the 2nd worst offense in the majors and you trade 2 of the 4 best bats (and Lastella). This is an awful offense and it won't matter how good their pitching is.
  3. kab21
    If he is Aybar (a 3+ WAR player) then you are at least breaking even. The Twins just paid 50M (each) for two 2-3 WAR pitchers. Typically any FA can be considered a poor investment since they are in the decline phase of their career. You have to spend the money somewhere and picking a guy that has big upside is a better bet (with more risk) than a declining vet. The key to the Twins future success is maximizing the amount of talent coming up at one time (with Buxton and Sano). He would be coming up at the same time and would give the Twins one more potentially scary bat in the lineup.
  4. kab21
    If you are going to do an extension you have to do it two years before they hit FA. You still have a chance to do it one year before FA but by that point there is very little discount. If it didn't happen by let's say this year's trade deadline then the baseball world would have put Hughes on the trade block instead of expecting him to stay with the team longer term.
  5. kab21
    There are no ifs, ans or buts about how ecstatic I am. If he repeats last season then the extension price would have been twice this (possibly 100M) and he would have been in his mid 30's at the end. This is perfect.
  6. kab21
    I'm not a fan of starting someone with shoulder issues in the bullpen early in the season and then moving him to the rotation later in the season. Yes, it keeps his innings down but it also could potentially mess up his shoulder when he needs to be stretched out midseason. Start him a week or two late in AAA, limit his starts to 80 pitches early in the season and call him up in May/June when the inevitable injury happens.
  7. kab21
    this really isn't relevant to Moncada. He's already played 2 years of pro ball at the AA-ish level compared to 15/16 yr olds that are playing in academies. Moncada would be more comparable to Cespedes, Puig and Soler (top prospect in baseball). He just happens to be 21 and needs to be subject to the same rules as 16 yr olds. If the scouts think he is immediately a top 10 prospect then I'm all for spending the rumored 80-100M to add him to two other top 10 prospects and several other top 100 prospects. I don't hold out any hope for it happening though.
  8. kab21
    To somewhat accurately value Moncada we need to know just how good of a prospect he is. That's going to be difficult since he has only played Cuban ball and he will have not played any ball in 1+ years. I get the feeling that he would easily be a top 10 prospect in baseball if he were eligible. I would pay 50M for a Byron Buxton level prospect (current version and not draft version). 80M? 100M? Is Moncada worth the money AND not being able to sign several of Minier, Diaz, Thorpe and better types? I expect that he will sign before the next signing period so that the Twins would be shut out of the following the next two signing periods. Does anyone have a source that says they couldn't sign him to a multiyear contract covering his arb years? I know that the 16 yr old int'l FA's always get upfront bonuses but why couldn't he be signed like Puig, Tomas or Cespedes? The difference is that he will be subject to a luxury tax while they weren't but I don't recall there actually being a rule that they couldn't be offered multiyear contracts.
  9. kab21
    This is so old and tired. Berrios was one of the youngest pitchers in his league. Stewart and Thorpe among the youngest pitchers in low A. Sano was one of the youngest AA players. Buxton was one of the youngest players in his league. The Twins have promoted talented prospects. the problem is that they simply didn't have many talented prospects to promote for a number of years. The reason for that was that they ignored the int'l market and had some clunker drafts for several years. This is precisely the reason why they should go all in for the international free agents. They need a steady stream of talented prospects instead of the **** they used to have.
  10. kab21
    I think the one year left guys were traded for pretty decent packages. Shelby Miller and Max Fried (TJ victim) are pretty good prospects/players. Atlanta did fine except they just punted their season which could be frustrating for a fan.
  11. kab21
    I expect volquez and Morales to be awful this year. Rios is alright but I would give the Royals a D for their offseason if not an F. The Twins get a C- for lack of creativity. White Sox - at least a B for using their resources (money) to make the team better. I think they (GM) realize if they don't spend the money then it's of no use (other than to the owner). Indians - I like the Moss deal but I can't remember anything else they did so I will withhold their grade. Tiger - An incomplete. if they are finished then they get a D/F. Resigning VMart was an awful move at 4 years. Trading for Shane Greene was decent. Swapping Porcello and Cespedes is solid after acquiring Greene. But this team hasn't taken a step forward (yet) with an aging team.
  12. kab21
    So the Wolves tried to be mediocre and they have started out awful. Injuries to 3/4 of their solid veterans is largely the reason and their return could result in a decent 2nd half though. What are some thoughts on the young players? I follow the boxscores but haven't seen much basketball this year. Wiggins - nothing unexpected (good or bad) - There was an ESPN podcast a few weeks ago that touted his shooting ability due to his 50% 3 pt shooting at the time. Since then he has gone 0fer and his shooting % from everywhere continues to sink. There are a lot of reasons that someone could have a low shooting % but in the little that I have seen he doesn't have a soft touch from outside. Lavine is playing and has his nights. Thoughts on his play would be appreciated. Dieng - doesn't do much on offense but looks good overall. Muhammad has gone off since the Martin injury. Is he really this good? That Burke - Dieng - Muhammad trade is looking good now even if Burke is playing well. Bennett is MIA lately. GR3 gets an incomplete.
  13. kab21
    The problem is that Moncada will likely be eligible before the next signing period so if they went all in on him (against the Cubs, yankees and Red Sox (I think)) they would be shut out of the next signing period but didn't really reap the rewards of signing multiple big name youngsters like they did. Moncada is a pipe dream imo. I just don't see them spending 100M (ballpark) on a prospect. I can see them trying to sign multiple high profile prospects and spending in the 10M prospect on many prospects. The MLB really screwed this part of the CBA up last time. It should have been immediately obvious that teams would just completely blow through the cap to get 3-5 top prospects and lose out on their allotted one top prospect the following season. Of course they screwed it so bad that they will likely get exactly what they wanted the originally (draft) next time.
  14. kab21
    Or Will Venable. I wouldn't consider either as a buy low in hopes of upside but rather both of them as salary dumps by the Padres that could be a decent stopgap. Venable is only on a one year deal so I prefer him tbh.
  15. kab21
    I think it's funny how people jump on and off a particular prospect bandwagon so quickly. Myers wasn't as good as he was portrayed in the Shield's discussion analysis nor is he as bad as some portray him in this trade analysis. I like this move by the Padres. The Rays seem to have sold low but it's possible that Souza continues hitting the crap out of the ball in the majors. It's possible that Souza and Myers end up as similar players. A lot of swing and miss but also raw power. Obviously it was a great trade for the Nats also.
  16. kab21
    ESPN with projections from fangraphs just wrote an article about where the teams stand now. They like the Sox moves but didn't really give them a nice projection. http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53956/path-to-the-playoffs-al-central
  17. kab21
    The Yankees are on the Boras's speed dial when things start to get interesting (teams are bidding) for Scherzer. I think they have to be the favorites to land him and Boras is waiting for most of the mid level starters to sign so teams don't have other options.
  18. kab21
    I have no idea how Kendrys got that contract after his injury history and the disaster of 2014 for him. I would have guessed 1/5 optimistically.
  19. kab21
    You're right the Cubs are a better comparable.
  20. kab21
    I will be shocked if it is June and no starters are injured or Blackburn-esque (or Pelfrey-esque) ineffective. It's a good thing to have depth and guys will get their chance.
  21. kab21
    Vargas did OK if you just look at OPS but his plate discipline was awful in the majors. Going into next season he looks like a prime candidate for a big sophomore slump. There is no planet that Hicks did OK on last year or the year before. He is getting a lot of walks like a little leaguer gets walks. He takes a lot of pitches and weakly fouls balls off. He simply hasn't made a lot of hard contact. In Hicks case he wasn't rushed since he played a lot of AA ball though. Arcia is actually an example of someone that has been rushed and is comparable to Sano if Sano is up early next year. Arcia crushed all minor league pitching but he didn't spend a lot of time hitting against the top AA/AAA pitchers and didn't see pitchers with legitimately good MLB stuff. His raw skill was enough to dominate the 80% (WAG) of pitchers that are never going to the big leagues. Sano's raw skill will likely allow him to dominate AA/AAA immediately. But that doesn't mean that he should be called up after 2 months of impressive stats.
  22. kab21
    Yes, for example Ryan Pressly (Rule 5) was up for one year with the Twins and didn't do half bad (ERA wise) but he spent the next year in the minors. Graham will be given every chance to make the Twins bullpen (assuming the Twins project him there) and even if he does prospects won't be blocked for long. The Twins bullpen is WEAK after Perkins.
  23. kab21
    The Sox and the Tigers always look old and in win now mode. They have chosen an alternative path to rebuilding and retooling than the complete tear it down, stink for 5 years and build through the farm.
  24. kab21
    Graham at least throws hard and was a good prospect before getting injured. Thompson is an 89mph lefty that wasn't very successful in the minors. It's no contest imo between these two although Graham might not amount to anything. Parmelee might not have been my first choice to DFA but it was time for both to move on. The Twins have a lot of depth at 1B/DH/OF. He wasn't going to get a chance as an everyday player here.
  25. kab21
    Money is not a problem for the Twins especially on a likely short term contract that the available RP'ers would get. I also disagree with your bullpen assessment. Perkins and to a lesser extent Fien (he crashed at the end of the season) are the only experienced RP'ers worth keeping. There are tons of openings in the bullpen to be filled although the Twins will bring back a pile of mediocrity for the bullpen.
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