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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    You are assuming that there will be a top pitcher available in a year or two. that may or may not be the case. At no time have I suggested that the Twins trade Buxton or Sano. I have suggested that Myers wasn't as elite as people thought at the time of the trade though. He had a high floor but as a corner OF his upside wasn't sky high. But I would consider trading other prospects as early as this year.
  2. kab21
    Part of it is about projecting the team over the next several years. The Twins are now on the rise and they should be adding 2-3 possibly above average prospects to the roster each year while other young players improve. It's not difficult to see the Twins winning 80 games in two years w/o any major external additions. I wouldn't consider that forcing the issue but rather a normal business decision based on projections. Additionally I'm not too keen on eating up 2-3 years of Sano, Buxton and several others waiting for internal improvement. there's no guarantee that anyone will resign and there are limited windows. Sano and Buxton might bust but I would make plans that they and others succeed because if they don't the Twins will be in a decade+ rebuild anyway.
  3. kab21
    I don't care at all. All I want is capable pitchers. I don't think it forces managers to manage any differently. A team's roster is basically set and some teams will have a platoon option or two but for the most part managers don't have much lineup flexibility to set things differently for LH/RH starters due to 12/13 man pitching staffs. And I'm certain that no team is loading up their starting lineup with LH hitters just so they match up well with the Twins.
  4. kab21
    Allow me to further clarify. Teams don't have a problem overpaying for a one year contract provided that they actually have payroll space. But many teams are willing to spend a little extra on short term deals (like the Twins with Pavano a few years ago). The Pirates are likely in a not enough money if both players accept so they might not make both offers. But at the same time it might be completely impossible for the Pirates to retain either player since the Pirates would have to commit 3-4 years of 10+M/yr and that could completely sink the team financially if either/both got old quickly. I think the Pirates are more against locking up two older non-elite guys to long-ish contracts. It's really just a modification of the old arbitration system with a lower draft pick penalty. If anything this should be an improvement for the MLBPA since middle of the road (5-8M/yr players) aren't getting offers. In addition some high profile deadline trades can't be offered. Overall there are likely to be far fewer players affected so the MLBPA actually won with this system but there is going to be a tier of players (4-5 each year) that loses. Plenty of players ended up in arbitration in the old system. Last year's results don't mean anything as far as whether or not teams will only offer to players that will decline it. It does give the team more leverage though. I could see VMart signing a 2 yr deal while he could probably get 3+ yrs in FA with no draft pick attached.
  5. kab21
    It's not about whether or not a player can get the QO amount in a multiyear contract. The QO will be higher (per season) for several of these mid tier FA's. Teams don't have a problem with overpaying for a single season but they are going to think long and hard about whether or not to give guys like Liriano, Martin, Cruz, VMart, etc multi-year deals. That risk almost disappears if they keep them with a QO. So far there is only one year of data and it's pretty obvious that those FA's (and agents) misjudged the market (badly). It's possible that this QO system traps some players on teams. Almost like a form of restricted FA.
  6. kab21
    Definitely getting an offer Scherzer VMart - 15M is a fine deal for him. The scary thing is committing to him for 3-4 years at that amount. Shields Ervin Hanley Robertson - elite closer and the Yankees will pay him regardless Probably - these are the guys that could find themselves in the Ervin/Drew/Morales situation if they decline Sandoval - this could be an interesting situation. He's too good not to give an offer but other teams might be lukewarm to signing him. Martin - one year contracts don't hurt teams but this might be too much for the Pirates payroll. Melky - pretty likely - Toronto isn't poor Cruz - same as Melky Liriano - more likely than Martin since pitching is so important KRod - less likely than the rest of the list Unlikely Cuddyer - on a different team possibly but the Rockies will look to rebuild Asdrubal - similar to Drew last year and not eligible Torii - do the Tigers pay a little extra to avoid a multi year contract and keep the gang (minus Scherzer) around for another year? Masterson - edit not eligible Volquez - I'm not seeing it Joba - not for a non-elite RP'er Janssen - he's not that good as a closer
  7. kab21
    Stephen Drew wasn't as interesting but Ervin Santana definitely was.
  8. kab21
    It's frustrating that you can identify the problem last year (too many starts by mediocre pitchers) and then propose a starting rotation that exposes the Twins to that same problem since there is almost no depth in AAA in case the inevitable injury or poor performance happens. I have a problem if a mediocre pitcher like Pelfrey or Correia are brought in but I can't understand how anyone can have an issue with a legitimately good pitcher is brought in. Prospects will get their chance if they are good enough.
  9. kab21
    I think it's a myth that signing one pitcher blocks anyone if that one pitcher is actually good. A prospect might have to start in AAA but based on past experience there are always going to be openings at some point during the season. I look forward to the day that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked.
  10. kab21
    The way to evaluate it is to evaluate the system as a whole. They now have 5-6 very interesting arms with good stuff that they have recently acquired. Some will bust and some will make it. What the trades did was give the Twins better odds of one of those interesting arms making it. If you grade every move individually like this then there is no reason for the Twins to go after riskier, higher upside players like Meyer and May. According to you they need to have something to show for the trade and would have been better off getting lower upside and less risky prospects. This is exactly what I don't want.
  11. kab21
    You miss the point about Igawa and even downplay how much money he cost. He got one of the largest posting fees and contracts for a Japanese player in history. Between the posting fee and contract he was a guaranteed cost of 46M 7 years ago. For the most he was overpaid due to DiceK's contract but he had mediocre scouting reports. Maeda (160lbs) also has mediocre scouting reports with a 90mph fastball and lacks a knockout secondary pitch. Most seem to be willing to ignore scouting reports and sign him for 100+M due to Darvish and Tanaka. He could be excellent and exceed expectations but that's a big gamble for 100+M.
  12. kab21
    This line of reasoning leads to Kei Igawa signings. Not every Japanese pitcher has been successful. Some exceed expectations while others fall short. For example Irabu and DiceK. Overall we are talking about a small sample size of high profile players that have come from Japan.
  13. kab21
    And he was a fine choice when there was 14M guaranteed on the line. I think it's a poor idea to ignore scouting reports and stats (7.3 K/9 in Japan) when there is 100+M on the line.
  14. kab21
    Maeda doesn't sound very overpowering and some are calling him a #4 starter. I will pass on 100+M contract for that even if he is 27. If the Twins stay conservative this winter then I hope they blow multiple years (3 yrs) of international bonus money on this guy. He sounds freaky good and is only 19. Of course they need to find him and hopefully he isn't eligible before July (the Red Sox, Yankees and others cannot sign him). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yoan-moncada-game-theory/
  15. kab21
    This is exactly what I'm talking about. You should be happy that they seemed to have altered their pitching prospect profile since they have loaded the system up with control pitchers for too long. In the last 2-3 years they have went after prospects with at least moderately good stuff. It's very frustrating that you want heads to roll if a couple of these types of prospects bust.
  16. kab21
    The Twins really need to invest one spot between May and Meyer. If they commit to both of them without adequate plan B in case of injury or MLB struggles then it's another year of the Darnells, Pinos and Albers cycling through the 5th spot. That's what is killing the Twins right now. Since the Twins have a set option at pretty much every position except 4th/5th starter and LF they should concentrate their offseason at only those two positions and get quality instead of spreading that money between 3-4 players. The goal should be to return to .500 this year. A big chunk of that will be through young players and a little due to luck but that doesn't mean that the Twins can't find a 3-4 WAR player to make up some of that difference.
  17. kab21
    I woke up in extra innings (12 hour time difference) and still managed to watch an entire baseball game. It's been a great postseason so far.
  18. kab21
    You seem to have completely misunderstood the discussion and the writeup on Meyer. Right now there's a chance that he sticks as a starter but the fallback is a potentially lights out RP'er. He will definitely get chances to stick in the rotation (and everyone thinks so). The only way that he moves to RP'er quickly is if there is significant doubt that his shoulder will hold up as a starter.
  19. kab21
    I think one important thing to understand is that most like him a lot as a prospect. He ranks in the 10-15 range on everyone's list and in another system (or the Twins system 5+ years ago) he would be a top 5ish prospect. His biggest problem is that .290 MiLB hitters usually become .260-.270 hitters in the majors. A .250-.260 hitter (like Walker) becomes a .220-.230 hitter. Considering that he doesn't like to walk then his OBP is in the .270's. He has excellent tools and has produced (reasons why he is ranked) but he needs to significantly improve his plate discipline as he moves towards the majors.
  20. kab21
    The bigger problem that I have with it is that they are probably paid next to nothing for their role. I have read some disturbing things about the compensation and rule book for some (all?) of the NFL cheerleaders.
  21. kab21
    The K rate doesn't concern me (yet). It's my understanding that Stewart either shelved his slider or didn't use it much to work on his fastball/change this year. Taillon (mentioned in the article) did the same a few years ago and his K's bounced back later on. Of course there are other prep pitchers that never struck anyone out and never improved (like Jacob Turner and Porcello).
  22. kab21
    Great prospects fail all the time even with great scouting. And I certainly wouldn't make any changes based the development of two prospects. For years it's been popular to bash the Twins for filling the roster and minors with guys that can't get K's and somehow manage to be solid pitchers. Now you are ready to bash them because they traded for a pair of prospects that have the stuff to get K's (and a lot of them) and they might fail? Meyer's scouting report doesn't read significantly differently than it did when he was traded for. There has always been mention of moving to the bullpen but he's been hyped up on here because of his great results. This scouting report kind of illustrates exactly why he stayed in AAA all year. He might have been better than Darnell/Pino/etc but he still has stuff to work on.
  23. kab21
    One thing to keep in mind when looking at his stats and comparing vs other cubans is that the Cubans introduced a 'deader' ball 2-3 yrs ago which has leveled the playing field between pitchers and hitters (from what I understand). The plate discipline is a concern but we are talking about age 20-22 seasons. It's not really a matter of looking for another Hughes or giving Hughes an extension. These things aren't mutually exclusive of each other. Signing Tomas takes the Twins out of the 50-100+M FA shopping list but they have piles of money to spend and finding a 20-30M pitcher is still possible with Tomas signed (depending on just how crazy the bidding goes). I also don't like the pitching is a bigger problem so fix that first. When you are a bad team then you have to take whatever talent you can get and go for the best talent. I'm not against spending big money on a 30 yr old pitcher but that's what you are going to get. There aren't any 24 yr old FA pitchers out there.
  24. kab21
    The problem is that there is no best use of the cash. The alternative is spending on 30 yr old good starters. I'm not against this but a 24 yr old potential impact bat makes more sense aside from the depth of bats but when you are bad you focus first on acquiring the best talent and then worry about where to play everyone.
  25. kab21
    Are you suggesting that Tomas projects as a .750 OPS bat? Picking a team that has done well mixing and matching a platoon of OF'ers doesn't mean that the Twins will be able to do the same. I think most would consider it unlikely that the Twins could do that. Tomas is certainly intriguing at 24 yrs old with 70 raw power. I'm all for the Twins dropping some big cash on a player with a future but I'm guessing the bidding goes to 100M. I doubt the Twins are involved at that point but I'm still interested. It only takes cash to add to a drool worthy list of bats coming up in the next couple of years. Potentially a stacked top/middle of the order.
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