Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

kab21

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,876

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    Here are the types of extensions that you do for both players that would benefit the Twins. The key here is that you don't outright buyout the FA year lowering the team risk. Dozier - 2M (before arb), 3.5M, 5.5M, 7M with a 10M option (1st FA year). 4/18 with an option buying out a year of FA. Dozier gets his first big money of his career a year early and some financial certainty. The Twins get a 1-2+M/yr discount from his likely arb prices and an option for another year of control. The risk is minimized imo. you could do something similar for Plouffe although he is a year closer to FA. But there is no reason to pursue extensions that are guaranteeing money into the 5th or even 6th years just to buy out a year or two of FA.
  2. kab21
    I can't wait to see the analysis about Sano's defense after just 5 games in the majors. 10-15 games in person plus additional TV games (MiLB.tv) is going to give an experienced scout a pretty good idea about a player's defense. Any more than this and you are talking about a dedicated evaluator that only follows one team. Plouffe actually has decent defensive tools although he is perhaps a bit short on range. I always compared him to JJ Hardy except Plouffe couldn't hit the 1Bman with a throw.
  3. kab21
    There are the one weekend scout types and then there are the regional scout types that probably watch 10-15 games live of each team and more on MiLB tv. And I have not seen one credible report that said Sano was good at defense currently. They all sound like he has decent enough tools to be passable at 3B. Did all of the scouts happen to watch the same games that he looked okay-ish or bad? In addition to that the Twins MiLB coaches and managers watch him every game. I think they have a pretty good idea how his defense projects. It will be interesting to see how he does after taking a year off and likely filling out even more.
  4. kab21
    Dozier has a chance at making 4M in his first year of arb. Probably 3M but there's no way that the Twins at this time lock up Dozier for 4M AAV. The 6 yr deal is exactly what the Twins should be avoiding with Dozier. He will be 34 yrs old by the end. If someone really wanted to sign him to an extension this year it should be a 2M (non arb year), 4M, 8M, 10M (option in his last arb year) and a 12M (option - 1st FA year). That gets Dozier some guaranteed money and a non arb year bump from the MLB minimum. It gets the Twins cost certainty, modest guaranteed money and gives them an option for one FA year. This is very similar to the contract that Span signed that gives the Nats the option of buying out his first FA year but was signed before he hit arb. And people will deny it but there were complainers about Span's contract especially after he struggled and was injured. It ended up being such a good deal that the Twins got Meyer back for him.
  5. kab21
    The opportunity cost is that the Twins won't be able to sign another Ervin Santana or Ricky Nolasco type. I can live with that. I think everybody knows that Sano's defense is not good. We are hoping that Sano's defense is passable at 3B. Signing a 3rd top 10 prospect to a stacked and deep system is something that puts the Twins in an even better spot in 3 years. I refuse to be concerned that 2 prospects might end up at the same position. The Cubs didn't even pause when they traded their top trade chip for another SS/3B despite having Castro, Baez, Bryant and Alcantara. When you are bad keep stockpiling talent regardless of where they play.
  6. kab21
    When you are bad you don't worry about positional need. You worry about adding talent at any position and if you end up in a position with too many good players at one position then perhaps you are on the way to a good team. Additionally anyone that is ragging on the Twins for putting together an awful defense but still wants Sano at 3B needs to smack themselves on the back of the head. I continue to hold out hope that the Twins will go big on Moncada. There are almost no comparables to him since he's much older than the int'l FA's but younger than Cespedes, Puig and Abreu although Puig was 22ish as a rookie. He's not really comparable to a HS'er although it would be interesting to see how he would stack up with the top HS draftees from the 2000's (JUp, Bryce, Mauer, Delmon, Machado, Buxton) as well as a few of the top int'l signees like Sano. I have a feeling that he wouldn't be last. The closest comparable is Soler and he is a better prospect than Sano imo (nothing against Sano) since he was about the same age and from Cuba.
  7. kab21
    I have low expectations of Stauffer but I enjoyed the book he was part of.
  8. kab21
    If you don't pursue a Hughes extension then there's a good chance that he walks or is traded in the next two years. That doesn't make the team better. just more rebuilding.
  9. kab21
    Hughes is a completely different case than Dozier. Yes, he had only played the first year of his 3 yr contract but Hughes was only 2 years away from FA. That's the magic number where you can still get a discount for extending a player. Hughes said himself that it might be difficult to get his agent to the negotiating table next offseason. Dozier is 4 years away and his arb years already end in his 30's. The reality is that Dozier is more like a young player that has been extended since his cost controlled years end at a time when you expect him to decline.
  10. kab21
    OT or actually back to the original topic. Watching the Cavs flail hopelessly is a guilty pleasure this season. I wish Kevin the best and have no ill feelings toward him but I dislike Lebron and his superteam creating. As a matter of fact I would at least partly blame Lebron for overstepping his bounds and acting as GM and coach so far.
  11. kab21
    Actually the Twins did extend Hunter v1 and Santana v1. They bought arbitration years and a couple of years of FA. And I'm not sure it would have been a good argument even if it was true since not extending them earlier (a second time) kind of came back to bite them. I'm rather indifferent to extending Dozier right now. Hughes was 2 years away from FA and that is the time that you have to get something done if you are going to get a discount. Dozier is still 4 years away from FA. People need to adjust their hitting expectations in the post steroid era. Dozier is a quality bat especially since he plays MI with acceptable defense. In addition to that these splits are WAY over analyzed. He posted almost identical K rates and BB rates and still managed a very good .143 isoP in the 2nd half. A .143 isoP is not a power outage for a MI unless you are expecting him to be Hanley Ramirez.
  12. kab21
    I remain cautiously optimistic about Arcia. the cautious part is that he never makes any actual progress similar to Delmon's career. If he keeps hacking at crap then he won't go very far. The optimistic part is that he becomes a middle of the order borderline All-Star that isn't even the best hitter in the lineup.
  13. kab21
    I'm concerned that the Wolves are trying to be just like the Twins in their disregard of statistical analysis. the Twins continually look for low K guys and then put together a terrible defense. The Wolves can't shoot 3's (aside from the injured Martin) at a time when it makes sense to have 4 three point shooters on the floor.
  14. kab21
    It's also important to remember that going forward after this season the Twins likely (hopefully) have an OF defense with Buxton, Rosario and Arcia. That's actually a pretty good defense and certainly much better than last year.
  15. kab21
    I'm going to throw out a guess that Pelfrey pitches his way out of the #5 spot competition. He has an inside track on the job (contract and no MiLB option) but a short leash. Very, very short. Once it truly becomes an open competition then I don't think May is ahead or behind of Milone since Milone has an option and May is more skilled (and less proven). Not terribly unlike Gibson beating out the trio that needed to be given a chance (Diamond, Worley and Deduno) last year. Meyer is on the outside imo due to durability and innings limits concerns. I would be surprised if he made the opening day roster unless an additional spot opens up or the other #5 starters bomb in the spring.
  16. kab21
    I'm not going to blast the Twins for signing Hunter to a one year contract and ignoring defense. They needed a one year OF'er that was decent at something. The alternative is signing players that deserve one year (and mostly suck) or signing marginal players for multiple years. On the bright side the Twins have stocked the farm system with a number of athletic types that could be average to very good fielders. Buxton, Santana, Walker, Rosario, Polanco, Gordon and probably a few others. The team composition should significantly change in the next couple of years and that could greatly change the team defense. The flip side of that is the stockpile of DH's on the MLB team and upper minors. Mauer, Vargas, Arcia, Sano, Pinto and possibly another prospect or two. You can only hide so many of these guys (Mauer is fine at 1B for example) without dragging the team defense down. Additionally anyone campaigning for Sano to stay at 3B should reconsider that stance if they are critical about team defense.
  17. kab21
    The Twins do not have too many starters. Good teams have 6-7 good starters so that they have somebody decent to call up when something bad inevitably happens.
  18. kab21
    Or they are measured words so people think there is an actual competition when in fact there isn't.
  19. kab21
    Because the one getting paid without an option to the minors will be given every chance to start. His leash is pretty short by now and it's likely that he doesn't look good enough in camp to keep the spot. Even though it makes sense we have not heard anything about Pelfrey going to the pen. I think that happens if he doesn't keep the 5th spot but so far he's a starter.
  20. kab21
    Pelfrey almost certainly gets the first shot at it. If he doesn't look good then I think it's a competition between Milone and May. I would prefer that Meyer starts slowly in AAA skipping a start and then throwing 4-5 innings/start to keep the workload down until a June callup. Of course this is all assuming that Nolasco and the other pitchers are healthy. There could easily be two opening day spots available (short term).
  21. kab21
    Your lineup in order of effectiveness is Freeman, Gattis, Markakis, Johnson, Andrelton, 2Bman, crappy catcher, BJ That offense will completely stink. Regression to the mean doesn't mean anything when most of the team is gone.
  22. kab21
    they have already lost to the Sixers. What more do you want them to do? but yes landing a top talent in the draft could change the franchise. I'm pretty happy that the FO is actually trying to put a decent team out there and they are losing a lot. I'm also happy to see many young guys establishing themselves. I'm not as convinced that Rubio needs to go or that Lavine is the replacement. Pekovic needs to go so Gorgui can be the man but his contract and the relative non-need for centers around the league make him nearly untradeable. Martin seems to complement these young players pretty well so I wouldn't mind if they kept him.
  23. kab21
    It really doesn't matter where Hunter and Arcia play. One is still going to be 39 yrs old and the other is still going to be a poor defender.
  24. kab21
    Here's a comment from Hughes that illustrates what I said earlier about this being the time to do an extension. It's easy to say that they should do something at X time but it's very likely that wouldn't have been an option. The concern is that the team would enter next offseason w/o an extension which essentially puts Hughes on the trade block instead of being a long term piece.
  25. kab21
    That's true if you are talking about random 16 yr olds. Moncada isn't a random 16 yr old. Sano wasn't even a random 16 yr old. there are only so many Sano types (like one every five+ years) to go after. Moncada is head and shoulders above the typical 16 yr old and likely would only need a year in the minors vs 5 for a typical int'l signee. That's a pretty important reason since the Twins have other elite prospects currently coming up. In addition to this the Twins are going to have to blow through their cap this year just to keep up with the Jones's. We are going to see some very inflated numbers for 16 yr olds due everybody saying that they are going to spend like drunker sailors. There is a chance that the Twins don't actually end up with a better signing class than recent years even if they blow through the cap. I'm not sure what has led the other teams to be apprehensive about Kang. It seems that he should have been worth more.
×
×
  • Create New...