kab21

The Cubs went 73-89 that season and were terrible at the trade deadline. Few fans in that situation get angry about trading veterans for great prospects. Nearly everyone on here would be in favor of trading Santana in that situation. The problem is that the Twins are still contending for a playoff spot (and leading the division). You don't subtract the teams biggest need in that scenario for an alright prospect. Getting blown away by an offer is different but I think other teams know the same thing that this board does about Ervin. I would be surprised if any GM didn't know that Ervin was 34 and could decline at any moment. We aren't the only ones with this information. I am all for trading him for top prospects though if it is out there.

Come on. There has to be no disagreement that Wright provides a better bet to be a good MLB pitcher than Greene? The question that could be debated is how much of a better chance he has. Of course there is a chance that someone in the top 5 ends up with a superstar and you merely got Jon Lester (upside) or Ervin Santana (middle ground) but it is also guaranteed a couple of teams got a complete bust. Wright is definitely not a lock (not just to due to TJ risk) to be a good pitcher but the chances are significantly higher than Greene.

I still maintain that unless the Twins are REALLY blown away with an offer (top 25 and top 100 prospect) for Ervin that they won't and shouldn't trade him. This also depends on being +/- 2 games of the division at the deadline. Still a long time until then. This team has been so bad for so long that this would be an AWFUL PR move just to pick up an average-ish prospect. It doesn't matter if you don't think the team can make a deep run in the playoffs. Trade Dozier or Escobar (a position of surplus) - okay Trade Grossman for a position of need - okay Trade a trivial prospect for a Santiago type - okay Trade a SP when you don't have enough decent ones - silly Trade good prospects for a rental - silly Trade good prospects for a longer term contract - thinking outside of the box

The part of the equation that you haven't included in this is what the upside gap is and the likelihood of hitting each of their upsides. Random #'s assigned Greene Upside = top 5 starter (Kershaw) but <10% chance. And he has a 30% chance of being an average starter Wright Upside = top 20 starter (Lester) and 25% chance. 60% chance of being an average starter I pulled those numbers out of thin air but the downside argument isn't that at worst he is Pelfrey. The downside argument is that he has a much better chance at being average or better (let's say Ervin Santana). And the upside is still really good (Lester).

Of course you can but watching recorded (or finished) games sucks. Especially for something like baseball.

The question is whether or not Greene is a generational player or if that is media hype? Indications are that he isn't at the same level of previous generational players or generational players come along every couple of years.

Wright has moved to #1 for me based on his strong finish and the strong(er) secondary pitches. He might not have the ultimate upside of Greene but he could be a borderline all-star (near elite level) and I will take it.

Yes, we need a hitter more than a base stealer, defensive replacement. That would be nice to have in addition though. It would be great to have both but I can't see the Twins not having two utility infielders. At least Escobar is remotely competent with the bat though.

He still has a .300 OBP. You can't steal unless you are on base but at least we can expect this to rise a little.

The problem is that your bench includes nobody that can hit the ball. I would bring up Vargas without thinking twice about it. The Twins have Adrianza and to a lesser extent Escobar for pinch running. Granite might be faster but they need a hitter.

The Astros series was disappointing but they are one of the best teams in baseball. The reason for optimism right now is that the Twins have a young offensive core that is asserting themselves in Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Grossman, Rosario and Buxton. Some of these need to show more improvement but this kind of core has big potential. I wouldn't say that it's the same as last year due to the advancement of this group. Sano for MVP, Polanco's defense at SS, Kepler OPS >.800 are some big ones. The pitching after Berrios is the reason to reign in optimism. So much more is needed.

I think we need to separate Mejia from other Twins developmental pitching prospects failures. He was developed by the Giants and spent limited time in the Twins system. Thus he will become Liriano. Or Boof! (what a name) which is a more reasonable comparison that any of these other random names thrown out. Boof! had a reasonably decent chance at being a solid 3/4 just like Mejia but he couldn't quite be effective.

There has already been rumored interest in D Rose as a FA and now the Knicks are back with another attempt to acquire Rubio (for the 8th pick). If the Wolves trade Rubio in order to sign Rose then I will be very unhappy. I am one of the bigger Rubio supporters and don't really like the trade since it could set the Wolves back several games this season and I hate continual rebuilding. I also really question whether or not Dunn or Jones are capable starting PG's. Two possible scenarios where it could make sense. 1) there is a second trade in the works and the Wolves need more draft picks to pull off the addition of a very good to near elite player. 2) They draft 3 and D Ntilikina (or a different PG in this PG heavy draft) and he provides a better fit for the future. And the Wolves already face the uncertainty of what to do with Rubio in two years when he becomes a FA. Sign him for 15-20M and 4+ years with his health? I might like Rubio a lot but that seems like a bad idea. It would be a gamble to draft another PG but I could understand taking a step back this year and really loading up for KAT/Wiggins prime. BUT NO D ROSE!

I think everybody is aware that Santana is old and at some point will fall off. That doesn't mean that you trade him when your team is above .500 and lacking anything resembling a 5th starter with additional uncertainty in the rotation. Trade a MI for prospects if you want but don't make a bad rotation worse. With that being said if a team offered the Twins a top 25 pitching prospect and a high upside borderline top 100 pitching prospect then I probably take that deal since it is a significant overpay but I don't shop Santana since it is difficult to see his market value as a top 50 prospect for exactly the reasons that people want to trade him. Other people are aware that he is old also.

I don't like anything about this Romero suggestion. You want to take a prospect that has a history of arm trouble and move him to the bullpen for the middle part of the season and then move him back to the rotation? This sounds like a really bad idea imo.

Hopefully the Twins can find another Nunez for Mejia type of trade this year at the deadline. Escobar should have similar or better value and amazingly MI is a Twins strength with a few okay prospects in the minors.

The Twins don't necessarily need to put rookies in the 8th inning setup role. They need a bullpen that is 5-6+ good pitchers deep. Right now they have 3 although Breslow has gotten good results thus far. And this is absolutely where Melotakis, Busenitz, Hildengarder, Rosario, Bard or possibly a few others. Get a couple of these guys up and see how they do in the 6th inning and then move from there. Swapping Duffey and Kintzler does nothing. The Twins need more quality innings from the bullpen. Swapping roles doesn't increase quality innings. Hughes to the bullpen might happen but he isn't remotely close to the same pitcher he was with the Yankees. I don't hold out much optimism for this as a fix. Romero is a good option Aug 1st (give or take). Let him get most of a season in as a starter so he is ready next year and then bring him up to solidify the bullpen. I doubt anyone expects him to throw 150+ innings in the minors and then come up as a starter in September so this should happen. Of course the Twins declined to do this with Berrios two years ago but there is different management now.

The worst part is the lack of upside from virtually everyone in the bullpen. That is a slight exaggeration but it is true.

I think this is an example of how moderation created an issue (and continues to create an issue) where there was none. Spycake explained himself well and I admitted that I might even give the same analysis of an outing. Good job at creating an issue.

The interesting part here will be how pitchers are adjusting to him. He has a 42% strike zone rate (pitches thrown inside) which is lower than average but not anywhere near the top of the list. He also has a 24% swing rate on pitches outside of the strike zone. What will happen as he sees fewer and fewer strikes? Does he chase more or does he continue to lay off like he has? My prediction - BAPIP comes down a bunch (let's say .360). K rate edges down to the low 30's while the walk rate edges up close to 20%. Part of the basis is that there little protection in the Twins lineup. Many hitters having solid seasons but nothing great. It also requires him to stay disciplined and not try to do too much. I could see him hit (perhaps optimistic) .260/.390/.560 for the rest of the season This doesn't take into consideration an inevitable slump which typically happens to every player and especially younger players.

If Thibs wants to reunite with anyone from Chicago make it Taj Gibson. He would be a great 25 minute big man role. ESPN had a great article that says Dieng and KAT are great together (defensive efficiency) which disagrees with my claims (silly me). KAT and Bjelica (or whoever the other big was) was a disaster defensively. Gibson could go a long way to improving that I think even if he can't shoot 3's.

This is more of a thing where signing Rose to pair with Rubio would indicate both are busts since one or both (or Rubio) would have to be dumped. I was more in the Hield camp but all 3 picks were reasonable. Hield ended up being the centerpiece for Boogie though. That was unexpected.

The Twins are more Real than they were 2 weeks ago. Partly due to Berrios looking like a solid or better pitcher for the season and partly due to solid (or continued excellent) play throughout the lineup. Still need a lot of pitching though.

This type of stuff makes me angry. At least it would if it is to be a starter and Rubio is traded off for not much. I wonder how Rose would look in a 15 min/gm backup role. The second squad needs a scorer even if you stagger Lavine and Wiggins playing time. But the need for a wing and/or a defensive 4 (that can shoot a little) seems so much more pressing. And I hate the idea that Dunn/Jones are busts.

Pick whatever years you want. 2012 would be a better choice (I didn't feel like looking up the date of the new CBA) because of the CBA and this is when the Twins hit bottom (following the 2011 season). But the point is that the Twins didn't make any huge splashes in int'l FA following the Sano, Kepler and Polanco year. And those represent about half of the best young players currently on the team. That one aggressive signing period has changed the entire outlook of the Twins rebuild but what if they had been more aggressive in other years and the Twins had a few more top prospects knocking on the door. And this isn't to state that the Twins have nothing to show for int'l signings since then. Diaz, Javier, Romero (mid sized bonus), Ynoa (<1M bonus), Thorpe (mid size bonus), Jorge (mid size bonus) are a nice haul but I don't think the overall strength of their signings during any period since their one big splash is that strong when compared to teams that were more aggressive especially when you factor in the 'supposed' advantage that they should have had (larger bonus pools) by playing by the rules. It looks even worse when most of their best signings were due to scouting and not money. Eloy Jimenez seems rather irrelevant to this discussion. Or perhaps extremely relevant. They didn't sign anyone besides Javier that projects to that type of upside for almost a decade (since Sano's signing period). Teams have certainly done worse but it was extremely obvious that teams would benefit by ignoring the cap and signing as many as possible. And money was certainly available. The MLB payroll dropped into the 80M range for two seasons. Spending an extra 10-15M (or more) in one offseason was possible considering the return on investment of prospects.