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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    This is another example of why Piscotty and Yelich are not comparables for Sano. One of the other issues for Sano winning MVP is that the Twins also need to win games. It isn't impossible for an MVP to come from a losing team but it rarely happens. Can you name them without cheating? Quiz below with teams and years. https://www.sporcle.com/games/lukemaltais/mlb-mvp-winners-for-a-losing-team
  2. kab21
    They can also do significantly worse. Right now they have 4 spots after Ervin (and he is old) to fill. Hopefully Berrios claims one of those and never looks back. That still leaves 3. Personally I would only be looking at an extension in the 2/20ish range on Santiago. I don't trust him long term but I trust him far more than virtually any other potential member (in house) of the rotation next year. And if they were able to make a big signing and had too many good arms in the rotation then I think everybody would be thrilled. At least I would and NO signing Santiago doesn't prevent them from making another big signing.
  3. kab21
    No, it wouldn't be easy but it looks like 2-3 more years for the internal improvement to happen. I am waiting for an non-conventional move from this FO that really kicks TD into debate overdrive.
  4. kab21
    This is the big point here. The Twins need to start showing some urgency because getting competitive 3-4 years from now is just about when Sano is getting ready to leave.
  5. kab21
    Taking a pitcher since a pitcher won't magically appear is a terrible process. Taking a hitter because they have had more success high in the draft is a terrible process. Taking a pitcher because he stands out as the best prospect (in their scout's eyes) is great. And even better that there is need.
  6. kab21
    Right now I think I like Markkanen the best. Pair him and Bjelica as your backup bigs and hopefully you get something decent out of them as early as next year. And then the Wolves can concentrate on finding a suitable wing in FA.
  7. kab21
    I will go first on this challenge Twins team Twins wins - 72.5 - OVER (but barely) HR hit - 199.5 (last year 200) - UNDER OPS - .738 (last year .738) - OVER ERA - 4.50 (last year 5.08) - OVER # of different SP'ers - 10.5 - OVER (this is going to get ugly # of different pitchers - 25.5 - OVER Offensive Players Dozier HR's - 26.5 - OVER Sano HR's - 33.5 - OVER Mauer HR's - 4.5 - OVER Kepler HR's - 20.5 - OVER Polanco OPS - .765 - UNDER Grossman OPS - .800 - UNDER Grossman OPS - .750 - OVER Buxton OPS - .625 - UNDER Rosario OPS - .725 - OVER Buxton GP - 99.5 - UNDER Danny Santana GP - 39.5 - UNDER JR Murphy GP - 9.5 - UNDER Sano GS at 3B - 110 - UNDER Grossman innings in the OF - 300 - OVER Sano K's - 219.5 - OVER Offensive Pick'ems Palka/Vargas/Park - most HR's - Vargas (he is here now) Gimenez vs Garver - most GP at catcher - Gimenez Grossman - more BB's or singles - SINGLES Dozier vs Polanco - higher OPS - DOZIER Most GS at DH - write in your pick - VARGAS Pitchers Santiago - 4.10 ERA - OVER (just a little) Santana - 3.60 ERA - OVER (a lot) Berrios - 4.25 ERA - UNDER (this is the year) Kintzler saves - 19.5 - OVER Gibson GS - 8.5 - OVER Hughes GS - 12.5 - OVER Duffey GS - 8.5 - UNDER Pitcher Pick'ems Hughes vs Gibson - most IP - HUGHES Relief Pitcher - most K's - DUFFEY Mejia vs Berrios - most IP - BERRIOS Miscellaneous predictions Pitchers taken in the top 5 rounds - 3.5 - OVER Deadline Deals - 1.5 - OVER DaveW's Book It Threads - 1.5 - UNDER DaveW's Bans/Suspensions - 1.5 - UNDER kab21's Bans/Suspensions - 0.5 - UNDER
  8. kab21
    WAR is meaningless in the sense (for Sano) because it isn't a predictive stat. Sano putting up a 3.3 WAR in his first 216 games is not the reason that this thread was started. This thread was started because many are convinced that Sano is a future star and want to make sure he can't immediately leave in FA. That is what makes Piscotty and Yelich (fine players) non-comparables and Harper a comparable. People aren't talking about Harper breaking FA records because he has one season over 5 WAR in his career. They are betting that he will be in the 6-10 WAR range for most of the next decade. Piscotty and Yelich might break 6 WAR once or twice in their careers. I could see your middle (100M) offer being considered except that there would be no buyouts. 100M fully guaranteed. The other issue is that his agent could say no to buying out any FA years (like Boras typically does) or offering one year and then go to FA.
  9. kab21
    Harper (and actually Stanton is closer or MCab) are far closer comparables to Sano than Piscotty and Yelich. WAR is meaningless in this comparison. Sano has a chance to be an elite power hitter and he knows this. Piscotty and Yelich are nice players and closer to Polanco or Kepler as mentioned.
  10. kab21
    Like Giancarlo Stanton or Michael Trout? Sano has a chance to be Stanton and he signed for 325M (with opt out) and bought out FA years for 25M/yr. You can't expect Sano to sign a year or two earlier than Stanton did for 35M guaranteed when there is a chance that a 200-300+M extension could happen in a year or two. Either the Twins back up one truck right now or they back up 2-3 trucks in two years if they want to keep him. And he might not be open to signing an extension at any price.
  11. kab21
    Yet they prop him up and don't force him to abandon this madness. If they really wanted this insanity to end then they have enough influence to do it.
  12. kab21
    The phone call isn't even getting answered if there isn't 100M guaranteed and the last arb year and FA years aren't being bought out for 20-25M/yr. Yelich and Piscotty are your comparables? Yelich signed his deal after a 9HR, .764 OPS and 4.4 WAR season. Piscotty signed his deal after a 22HR, .800 OPS and 2.8 WAR season. A closer comparable to Sano is Bryce Harper (prior to 2015) who has basically said 'no, thanks' to any deals. Whether or not he is actually that good doesn't matter but he is more in that realm of player when money starts getting talked about.
  13. kab21
    I think you over simplify a full scale invasion and the issues that it brings. A) It gives NK justification in using any and all means necessary to defend themselves and parts of the int'l world will agree with them. Right now NK has been saying STAY AWAY from us or we will hit back. They might be insane but they know that if they launch any attacks on SK, Japan, US, AU or anyone that not even China will be able to stop the complete and total devastation of their country. Worse yet it is very, very unlikely that China (and probably Russia) wouldn't defend NK against an unprovoked (from their POV) attack on NK. This isn't Iraq where there wasn't anyone to back Hussein. If the US initiates the offensive then there will be hell to pay all over the world from it.
  14. kab21
    Grossman can start 2x/week in the OF with Kepler/Rosario/Buxton getting days off in some sort of rotation. He can start at DH 2x/week with Vargas and Mauer each getting a day off. Sano can start at DH 1x/wk with Vargas getting a day off. We can talk all that we want about Mauer taking more days off but it isn't happening yet. Starting OF'ers 5.3GS/6 Grossman 4/6 - he could get another game in the OF easily Vargas 4/6 Mauer 5/6 Sano 1 GS at DH Escobar 0GS at DH - there is no reason to put him at DH- he can start a game at 2B/SS/3B each week
  15. kab21
    The problem is that the alternative doesn't work either.
  16. kab21
    China's problem is very different since they are keeping NK afloat. NK doesn't respond to sanctions because they receive (just) enough to keep everything going (from China and likely also Russia). And NK knows that China will defend them against any aggression. Very different situation imo.
  17. kab21
    I won't lose any sleep over a prospect that put up a 6.75 K rate in AA last year. It would be nice to have for depth in this season (every $%$# one) where they have so little depth though.
  18. kab21
    Bright spots (mostly covered) - 3 young players that should be part of a future core look great (Kepler, Sano and Polanco) - Vargas is up and playing - Gene Larkin is doing his thing - Ervin and Hector can create an issue with pitching well enough to be in demand but also be kept - Hughes is surviving by guile and could be serviceable for at least part of the contract - Duffey looks great and Rogers looks good - Only 3 young players that could be part of the future have struggled (Rosario, Buxton and Mejia)
  19. kab21
    I completely understand what a bell curve is. The problem is that you have seemingly included everyone except the above average and elite pitchers (a small part) in the same definition. At various times you have said that more mediocre veterans weren't needed so I can only assume that Hughes and Gibson are included. You called Nolasco mediocre. And you even said if they wanted to add veterans they could have picked up one and stashed him in the minors. Is that still mediocre? But the word mediocre isn't important. The important part is that you continually lump Santiago in with pitchers that most would describe as awful or were likely to be awful (projecting Hughes for example after injury). And this belief that the Twins have enough pitchers of Santiago's mediocre-ness. Even if Mays didn't get injured there were so many question marks surrounding the Twins rotation that somebody of Santiago's track record should have been welcomed. At this point I wish we had another. Perhaps Hughes will survive and make an unexpected comeback from his injury to be average (and better than expected). So far the results are not great but he isn't been Gibson awful yet.
  20. kab21
    Peace is the priority for them. And peace comes from propping up the insanity. Reunification is not a consideration at all for them. It never has been.
  21. kab21
    I like the change (for baseball) since it did screw the player but I am not sure that he accepts the QO (18M? maybe). If he puts up a 4.00 ERA then there has to be a team that will pay him $12-14M/yr for 3-4 years.
  22. kab21
    He is a major league starter now but the margin for error is low since his best case through age 30-33 is likely 4.00 ERA. If anything goes wrong then he is useless as a major leaguer. If it was me then I spend double and shoot for a better pitcher if I am spending significant money anyway. But overpaying for one year on a QO minimizes the long term risk.
  23. kab21
    I am in general against signing average at best 30 year old FA SP'ers. Santiago or otherwise. The Twins could screw him and give him a QO (nobody is likely giving up a draft pick for him). If he pitches 4.00ish ERA over 180 innings this year he has to be worth 12+M/yr so overpaying towards 17-18M for a single season with no long term commitment isn't terrible. Steady the ship and try to find something better in the meantime.
  24. kab21
    Those were Twins fans and not scouts. His MiLB stats looked like ace material but scouts were typically more reserved on his upside. Even then they didn't expect him to be a disaster like last year. I remain confident that he is an Ervin Santana level or a little better pitcher (career) though.
  25. kab21
    Slow down the Santiago train here. I am one of his biggest supporters but I am EXTREMELY hesitant about offering any kind of multiple years to him. He was a great option last offseason because he was on a one year arb contract and if things go bad then nothing significant is affected. Multiple years is really risky imo. I would certainly try to trade him at the deadline. I say no to extensions to 'mediocre' pitchers that somehow get it done. He is solid but not somebody I want pitching for the next 3-4 seasons for the Twins.
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