kab21

Vargas has his flaws (nearly zero defensive value or flexibility) but he has shown a pretty good ability to hit the ball at all levels. He doesn't possess the upside of Sano or even Kepler but there are several paths that lead to him being a .800 or even .850 OPS DH. I certainly am willing to start him 5 games/wk to see what the Twins have. Especially if the other option is a scrap heap pickup or Park (whom I think has fairly decent potential also but is 30 years old).

This move will at least be entertaining. And there is upside that he finds a role on the team. After even before lavine's injury the Wolves desperately needed a 3 to play 20 minutes/game.

My thoughts on Park (and the other subtractions) is that he would be a great waiver claim for the Twins rosters at various points in the last decade (lacking a power hitting DH or really anything resembling a DH). Right now the Twins have Vargas and also Palka to fill the role and still some uncertainty regarding if Sano can stick at 3B. Too many guys that should be playing DH on the team. I was really hoping that he would stick though because I live in Asia and root for any Asian player to make it with the Twins so I can start seeing the locals wearing Twins apparel.

It will be interesting to see how Lavine's injury affects the Wolves recent hot streak (although 3 game losing streak). No doubt he is a good player but the fit isn't perfect with Wiggins. Of course, more Rush and Bazz isn't a great way to find out.

Obviously it has to be a player worth playing to go after. The Wolves bench is awful. It shouldn't be hard to find 10-15 minutes for a solid role player.

You are worried about 2nd rd picks? I would look for role players that are slightly overpaid and would be around for another season or two. I don't think Rubio will be dumped. Perhaps traded for something of value but not dumped.

The frustration of cheering for a young and talented team continues. 8-3 in their last 11 but still 19-29 due to the awful start. Nice to see them turning it around and I am hoping that Rubio continues to play good ball so people can see that he is an alright option as the 4th best starter in a lineup. They could do better at PG but they could do much, much worse and get a much worse fit for the rest of the team. The starters continue to log big minutes in case anyone is watching. Will Thibs force a win now move? I would certainly be fine picking up a moderately expensive veteran for 2nd rd picks. Kind of the reverse of the Corey Brewer trade from a couple of years ago. Preferably a little better player though.

But if you really believe in one player more than another then that would make them a #1 on your list. Maybe not a true no doubter that come along every 5+ years but still a #1. I can see a situation where there are 3-4 players in this draft that are in virtual ties and it does make sense to pick the one that signs for less if the Twins can grab a second top 10 talent with the supplemental pick or the 2nd rd pick.

Ugh... This team desperately needs a bench.

It is odd that you look at a long list of trades and then conclude that since they have only traded prospects for Maybin and Aybar in the last two years they won't be able to make similar trade to what they have done in the previous decade. And you somehow discount that both Porcello (a long time ago) and Smyly came out of the farm system even if they were in the MLB at the time. They have been able to use their farm system in an atypical manner to bolster their MLB team for a long time. Other teams wait for prospect to bust or make it at the MLB level and Detroit trades that uncertainty for real production. They also didn't steal Cabrera from Miami. They paid a steep price (Maybin was the #6 prospect and Miller was highly ranked also) and it paid off. Not terribly unlike the Sale trade. They got the elite SP'er and Chicago got the great prospects and risk. Scherzer was also highly ranked and high upside prospect that was one year from the minors. They took a chance on the upside and it paid off. Not terribly different than picking up Norris.

I am not sure how you continue to miss the entire point. The entire point hasn't been about homegrown players making the team younger. They have used their terrible farm system to constantly trade for veterans that make their team better immediately. And they have done this many times with a farm system ranked almost last every year. They have zigged where the common sense direction is to zag. If you are giving a lot of credit to the Tigers for their big trades that brought them a 1st ballot HOF'er and a 2 time Cy Young winner then you should be applauding the Red Sox trade of Sale since he is at the same level as Scherzer.

And here we go again getting caught up on breaking down prospects instead of trying to find an approximate value for Ervin. It seems his value lies somewhere between borderline top 100 prospect and a borderline top 50 prospect. That seems pretty fair. The FA market and trade market is really limited so I think a good argument could be made that the valuation could be on the higher end of the scale.

I just wanted a rough valuation of Ervin's worth. I thought using prospects from the Twins system would be easy since we know them.

So you think his value is more at the Gonsalves level. Or higher?

You really didn't look at the trade list that I posted. They had marginal prospects come up and fill holes out of what was considered an awful system. They got great value for other promising but not highly ranked prospects and traded them for very good MLB players. Right now you are fixated how the weak farm system is going to doom them. They have shown that they can trade prospects from a terrible farm system to fill on the MLB team. That has been my entire point all along. For the Tigers it isn't about having a strong young core. It is about taking a Fernando Romero or a Lewin Diaz type and trading him for a solid (let's say 2.5 WAR) OF'er with 2-3 years left on his contract. These kinds of trades are still possible with a universally accepted depleted farm system. They just keep finding ways to get value out of terrible farm system. Other teams haven't been able to do that. That is the credit that we are giving them and why some aren't so eager to write them off yet.

No, you don't get called all sorts of names if you call a professional prospect overweight. Check out the Sano threads for proof of that. Yes, weight is an issue but there are plenty of fat successful pitchers and the latest reports (at fangraphs) say that Mejia has it under control right now. And he pitched awesome last year with a 4:1 K:BB ratio. His stuff isn't overwhelmingly awesome but it is decent. But here is my beef with your complaints about Mejia. My comments about Mejia were never specifically about Mejia. I was just looking for a ballpark value of what someone thinks Ervin is worth. The amount of attention that you have spent on Mejia is puzzling since the Twins can't trade Ervin for Mejia. And because you have focused on something unimportant, you haven't actually given me any idea what you think his value is (other than Mejia isn't acceptable). That is my beef.

You can't just dismiss things like projections and rankings without offering up better alternatives. I am referencing some sort of valuation system (which of course isn't perfect) while you offer nothing other than your opinion. I state something with some level of backup and you attack referenced information while using very little data to support your argument. I assess Ervin as a 4.00 and use several sources and explain how I came up with that valuation. You make an argument based on how valuable Ervin was last year to the Twins based on his ERA (3rd best of his career). It doesn't matter how valuable Ervin was last year (based on ERA). It matters what he will do the next two years. And now you want to throw out prospect rankings because prospects bust and unranked (or late ranked) prospects succeed. Everyone knows that propsect rankings are imperfect but if you want to disregard them then you MUST offer up a better alternative. You have at least said why you don't like Mejia so I will give you credit for that but there will be a great deal of irony in the next paragraph related to Mejia. You have dismissed Mejia as a mid/back of the rotation arm that does nothing for you. Ironically you named a bunch of prospects that were dismissed as utility players, no bat types, back starters or future RP'ers. Kyle Seager - 2010 ranking analysis by Sickels - 'I think Seager is an interesting player, but my guess is that he’s more of a utility guy than a future starter.' Alex Wood - 2013 ranking analysis by Sickels - 'If the Braves manage Wood's workload properly and the breaking ball continues to improve, he has a shot at being a mid-rotation starter no matter how weird his delivery is.' Dozier - 2010 analysis by Sickels - 'His range at shortstop is limited and he’s better at second base, but I can see him being a good utility guy.' 2011 analysis also by Sickels - 'At worst he’ll be a fine utility player, and there’s a non-negligible chance he can hit and field well enough to start for some teams.' Corey Kluber fits your look for high upside guys with command problems though. As does Danny Salazar. Crawford was a no hit all glove SS that never ranked well. Here is a great quote from Sickels 'Still, the sort of improvement Crawford has made is actually rather unusual: completely revamping a hitter's swing and hitting approach isn't easy and often fails, especially for a guy coming out of college with established habits.' I chose quotes/ranks from Sickels because the information is easily available w/o a subscription. I don't recall any different arguments being made for the above players and it really doesn't matter. Prospect rankings are of course a crapshoot but many unranked prospects that succeed were dismissed because they lacked upside. So if you don't want to use prospect rankings for a rough valuation (I never said they were the end all be all) then what do you propose for assigning rough valuations?

So it seems that a large majority LOVE IT but I am seeing several people (whose opinions I respect) giving it a shoulder shrug and saying not that great (5/10 type). I still have no idea when I will see it.

You didn't ask me but I would definitely trade Palka and Granite to get Ervin. I haven't seen either of these ranked around the top 100 in overall lists. Mostly outside of the Twins top ten although Palka is likely a contentious prospect. Some could have him ranked much higher.

Ummm... Okay... They still have the 6th worst record and are 10 games under .500. It is really unlikely even considering that Portland is 13-18.

I alluded to him not deserving 25 minutes off the bench as a wing and being the reason that Wiggins and Lavine are playing 40+min/gm lately.

I don't think we disagree then. All I have said is that if a hitter is a fair amount better then you take him even if he is a bat first1B/RF/LF which are the deepest positions currently. If two prospects are really close then I am all for taking a pitcher even if the hitter is considered marginally better. I just don't like the mischaracterization of the BPA argument.

So this isn't an issue for the Twins because they have taken 2 pitchers in the top 10 overall in the last 4 drafts?

Then you are arguing 2 different points. I have not advocated taking a hitter or pitcher in this specific draft because of BPA. I have hoped that the BPA (one of the players in a virtual tie) is a starting pitcher because of this need. But if their scouting department truly believes that one of the hitters is a fair amount better than the best pitcher then I can live with that. Your analogy still sucks. Yes, you need 5-7 SP'ers but you also need 9-11 hitters. You can't ignore hitting forever because you need 5-7 SP'ers. I am not suggesting that you suggested that but your analogy did.

I can wish all that I want that my girlfriend will turn into a supermodel (I actually don't) but that doesn't mean that it will happen. The same goes for Sano becoming lighter. This isn't a fault for him. This is the body that he was given. He could eat healthier and work out more (cardio intensive) but he would likely only lower his body fat% while not losing any weight. I could actually care less what is actual weight is. The body fat% is the real number here. Is there any indication that this higher than a normal player?