kab21

The point of the list wasn't to say that they were restocking the team with young talent or the farm system. The point was that they continued to use one of MLB's worst rated farm systems to add talent to their roster. If their farm system was so bad how did they manage to do that? I have never said that I prefer Detroit's style of rebuild. I have given them credit for doing what they do and doing it very well. Perhaps 2017 is finally the year that they suffer from trading off their prospects but I have them projected for about 85+ wins and contending for a playoff spot. If this is the downside for their method then it is brilliant. Other teams have done what Detroit has done and it has backfired badly. The long term negatives that you keep stressing happened to them before they had anywhere close to a decade of success. In some cases they barely even had short term success. The point here is that Dombrowski did an amazing job at holding off the negatives that you are talking about while he was in Detroit. It is very likely that we also wait for a long time for these negatives to impact the Red Sox.

Is it just you spitballing or are there actual rumors? Even if Park isn't part of the equation there is still Vargas and not to mention Sano shouldn't really be at 3B and Palka is coming up soon also. DH is crowded and I would be surprised if the FO is looking at bringing anyone in much less an almost finished bat only player on a short term contract. I can see the team adding a player in the profile of Dexter Fowler because of versatility but not a broken down almost finished DH (and maybe 1B) type.

I don't know if it only one person but Napoli to the Twins is a confusing direction. Why sign a 35 yr old broken down DH/1B. Yes, he loves to hit HR's but the Twins are locked in with Mauer (not going), Sano (should DH or 1B) and have two possible DH's in Vargas and Park. I would like to see what those two can do in a rebuilding year.

You are talking about min/gm for the season. I was talking about the 5last games when they started winning (including GS). Dieng is at 37.2/gm - Wiggins 40.4 - Rubio 37.6 - Towns 38.6 - Lavine 40.8 We are excited that they are winning but this appears to be the price. Jones and Dunn play that same backup position so that might be the issue if the Wolves don't want to play Dunn at a wing position. You didn't list any true wings so that is probably the reason Lavine and Wiggins are playing so much. Shabazz is fine but it would be nice to have a 3rd wing that really deserved to get 25-30 min/gm off the bench. Aldrich hasn't played in two of the last 5 games. It will be interesting to see if he works his way out of the lineup in favor of more Bjelica allowing Dieng to play the 5 some.

Good grief. When people talk about BPA they aren't talking about a player that is a tiny bit better. Yes, if two players are in a virtual tie then pick the one based on need. Your Vikings analogy breaks down in the different developmental systems for each sport. It takes 3+ years for an MLB draft pick to reach the majors. The needs of today might not be the needs of tomorrow. There are also more ways to acquire and develop prospects than in the NFL. Yes, the Twins need MLB pitching right now. Yes, I hope they get a pitcher in both the draft at 1-1 (and at least one with the 1s and 2nd rd picks). But I don't want them to lock in on SP so much that they ignore players that are currently better choices.

Who slammed him? I called him a mid rotation starter going forward and that we should expect him to post an ERA around 4 during the next two seasons. That is a good pitcher in my book. If you want an example of a pitcher being slammed then check out the sentiment towards Hector Santiago. It seems like sub 4 ERA's have been considered some sort of benchmark for being a good pitcher in this thread and he had 4 straight seasons before 2016 with a sub 4.00 ERA. And we aren't talking about 3.95 or 3.99 sub 4.00 ERA seasons. Just saying...

I didn't say the Tigers currently (or really ever did) have a homegrown roster from their weak farm system. I also didn't say that they brought up a lot of players. I said that they have used what has always been a weak farm system to make the team better. The list below is not a trivial list of prospects nor were they traded for terrible players (well some were like Greene and Simon). The argument all along has not been that one way is better than another but that Dombrowski's method worked for a decade (and possibly more) despite people saying that their long term future was very much in doubt. For example: Matt Joyce came up and was productive for a season and was traded for Edwin Jackson. Jackson and Curtis Granderson were traded for Scherzer and Austin Jackson. The Tigers got younger and ultimately this paid off big time. Austin Jackson (previous trade) and Drew Smyly (farm) (and Willy Adames - now a big deal) were traded for Price. Price was then traded for Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd (plus one other). Avasail Garcia (prospect) was traded for Iglesias Giovanni Soto (prospect) was traded for the previous shortstop Jhonny Peralta some prospects were traded for Doug Fister (later traded for prospects that flopped though) Jacob Turner (prospect) plus two others were traded for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante (and a comp pick - see below) Knebel (comp pick above) and Jake Thompson traded for Joakim Soria prospects were traded for Shane Greene (who sucked in Detroit) prospects were traded for Alfredo Simon (who sucked) Porcello (prospect many years ago) was traded for Cespedes was traded for Fulmer plus one In addition guys like Avila, Raburn, Castellanos, McCann and a handful of others have come up and contributed from this weak farm system. This is an alternate team building method but you have stuck by your argument that homegrown is the best (and possibly only) way to long term success. The Tigers have had long term success using this method.

Okay so you clearly don't like Mejia. At least you have said something solid rather than dancing around the question. If you hope to get 3 prospects for Santana then they are likely going to be ranked in the Twins 15-30+ range. It could happen but not as likely. I also think you overestimate the potential starters that the Twins could have up in the next couple of years. More arms like Mejia and Gonsalves are needed imo. I also think you either overestimate Santana's current ability or underrate Mejia's potential. But thanks for actually saying something finally and showing a preference for 3 lottery tickets that won't rank in the top 100 and if you are getting 3 then at least 2 of them won't be top 200 prospects. I don't mind this approach but I wouldn't dismiss making a trade for a pitcher that could merely be good and up quickly. The Twins have a severe shortage of those.

Exactly my thoughts. Everyone was frustrated because they knew the Wolves weren't as bad as they were playing but this is what happens to young teams. The playoffs are unfortunately a pipe dream now but hopefully they can continue this run. The best part is they beat two .500 teams (and the Suns) while playing a good 44 mins against the Rockets. One criticism that Thibs has faced is running his starters into the ground and in those 4 games every starter has played 33+ minutes. Most starters are close to 40 most nights. This is something to monitor.

This is not at all what the BPA argument is about. BPA means taking all of those things that you listed into account while ignoring organizational needs. For this draft, it means don't force a starting pitcher at 1-1 (or even in the 1-s and 2nd rounds) because the Twins desperately need a starting pitcher.

2010 - 3.99 ERA 2011 - 3.38 ERA 2012 - 5.16 ERA 2013 - 3.24 ERA 2014 - 3.95 ERA 2015 - 4.00 ERA 2016 - 3.38 ERA Saying that he had a sub 4 ERA since 2010 is EXTREMELY generous. 3 times he had a 3.95-4.00 ERA and once he was WAY over 4.00 during the select timeframe that you chose. Nobody is saying that he isn't a good pitcher nor is anyone giving him away for nothing. People seem to have taken exception that I question whether or not he is a low 3's ERA pitcher and instead expect him to post a high 3's ERA. I am much more interested in what type of prospect you would expect to get back in a trade rather than this nitpicking. I have stated that I like someone in the Gonsalves to Mejia range. Of course, that brought about more nitpicking since that was considered a comparison of the two. No, it includes both of them and Jay. If that range of prospect isn't acceptable then what is acceptable? A DeLeon or Alvarez level prospect? Again this isn't suggesting a trade for either but these (and the Twins prospects) are two that most fans are familiar with.

The entire point of this thread was not to say that one method or the other was better. The point of the thread has been that Detroit has done a great job doing it this way and people have been saying the same things for 10 years. You may not remember it happening but it did. And despite all of this concern about the terrible Tiger's farm system it still routinely produced decent to good players/prospects that were later used to fill holes or in trades. Ironically there have been several times that Dombrowski traded off older players (like Granderson, and Price among others) to restock the farm system or make the team younger and cheaper. He has done a great job although it is fair to say that some of it has been due to luck but that would likely be true of any GM that has been successful.

And I am guessing that you would project that Ervin would be a high 3's ERA as a best reasonable case. Of course, it is possible that he could repeat last season but that is something that he has done only in something like 3 seasons in his career. My frustration is that the same people that have criticized the usage of projections turned around and made arguments based solely on how valuable he was last season.

And you ingnored everything that I said about defense. Wiggins (due to Lavine) and Dieng are defensive mismatches that other teams are exploiting. This will be an issue regardless of who is at PG. Rubio is Rubio and there are issues. But there are issues if you are starting any of the 16th-30th best PG's in the NBA.

I am against moving Santana simply because he won't be here in 2 years and before then he might fall off in performance. I am 100% for adding a prospect that would rank in the #75-100 range overall and in the Twins top 5 for him because of those two reasons. I don't like it when teams (like the 76er's) make their team as bad as possible for no reason but adding another very good prospect is exactly what this team needs.

Detroit's farm system has been rated one of the worst for almost that entire decade that they have been good. It didn't stop them from being good nor did it stop them from trading prospects for very good players. Going back to the Red Sox (the original topic). Their long term future is in great shape despite the trade. How long will we have to wait for the negative impact to hurt the Red Sox? 5 years - 10 years - 15 years? Teams like Detroit and the Red Sox can certainly use cheap talent but if they have a hole they can also easily go out and sign a player for 10M/yr. One thing that was always surprising me during Detroit's playoff runs is that they always had role getting promoted and filling holes. They weren't great players but they did provide value.

And this is the reality. The bright future of this article will likely result in 2 good starters at best. That is great except that it leaves 3 more rotation spots. And that is why the Twins should be adding as many decent to good to great pitching prospects as they can. Someone mentioned that the Twins had enough good but not great pitching prospects in another thread and only cared if the Twins were able to trade for a legit front of the rotation arm. I disagree.

Dieng and Lavine are both very good young players but I don't think it is difficult to see that they don't fit perfectly as starters. Do you disagree that Dieng is a bad matchup defensively against smaller 4's? Do you disagree that Wiggins has problems guarding larger 3's? They can try to exploit that on the offensive end but it is a disaster defensively. Ideally imo the Wolves would be able to add a 25-30 minute larger and defensively focused wing and/or a smaller 4. Dieng and Lavine would then off the bench (playing 25-30 minutes) and spend less time paired with Towns and Wiggins. At that point they would have a legitimately good bench. I don't know what has happened to Tyus Jones after the great debate on here regarding him. He should be playing some but Thibs is going with Rubio and Dunn and there really isn't PT for a 3rd point guard.

That isn't a comparison. It is naming two names that I would consider to be acceptable. And you are still avoiding the question that I asked (of everyone) and nitpicking instead.

Are there any articles that focus on a single season of ERA as a reliable indicator for future performance? This nitpicking about projection systems is kind of silly when they have only been used for a ballpark indication of future performance. For Ervin his career ERA is 4.09 and 2014/2015 were almost exactly 4.00. Perhaps we could include 2013's 3.24 but then we should also include 2012's 5+ ERA. The point is that Ervin is very unlikely to have an ERA as low as he did last year. It doesn't matter what kind of analysis you do.

You looked at a one year sample. I looked in the past at career averages and at multiple year samples (conveniently leaving out his worst season - 5 years ago). These are more reliable indicators than one season of one of the best ERA's of his entire career. That was the point of my response. But I am sure you could make all kinds of great decisions based on a one year sample size that looks like an outlier. I have never ever compared Gonsalves and Mejia as prospects. I don't know where you think that I have. Every ranking has Gonsalves higher. I have given a range of prospects that I would consider acceptable in a Santana. You have clearly made it known that Mejia is not an acceptable return for Ervin but despite all of your nitpicking you still haven't answered my question. Is Gonsalves an acceptable return? If not Gonsalves what is an example of a prospect that would be acceptable?

Wall would have to be very, very overrated to only be a slight upgrade from Rubio. I will defend Rubio as a solid or average PG but Wall would have to be the completely wrong match for this team for this not to work. But Washington might not even want Rubio if they are going into rebuild mode. They might want Dunn, the next pick (might not be tradeable right now though due to the Payne trade) and Dieng plus something else. Even then this seems light for Wall.

The projections almost match his average WAR for the last 4 years. I think that would be more accurate than using his 2nd best ERA of his career that is 0.70 points below his career average. And my original question asked was trying to figure out what people thought was a fair return. So far you have only said that a Gonsalves or Mejia level prospect isn't good enough. What do you think is a fair return for a 34 yr old 4.00 ERA pitcher? He is a solid pitcher and that is why I have always said that the Twins shouldn't trade him just to trade him. I think getting a prospect back that will rank in the #3-5 range on the Twins list is a good move for a team that needs to rebuild.

This isn't what I said at all. You are looking entirely at the past. I think there is a good chance that Santana has a fine season but 34 yr old pitchers can drop off quickly. In addition to that his contract is fine but it isn't cheap. Fangraphs project him at 2.3 WAR next season which is slightly better than his contract. I think getting a Gonsalves level pitcher would be a great get for the Twins. Adding a top 5-ish org prospect isn't a trivial return imo. It is odd that the sentiment has changed on Santana. At the trade deadline there were many that would have taken literally anything for Santana and they blasted Terry Ryan for not moving him.

Ervin is just a mid rotation arm. And I will not say that the Twins have too many good pitchers (mid rotation guys) until they are actually up and proven. I am not sure it is possible to have too many at this point.