kab21
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Everything posted by kab21
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I am just saying that everything has to go right in that scenario. Hopefully it does and honestly if the Twins are contending then it might have.
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That is the most optimistic scenario. The scenario that involves both Mejia and Hughes being adequate, Berrios doing well (good chance of 4.00 or even lower) and nobody getting injured. If all of those happen then I agree with you. Most likely both moves (bullpen and starter) need to be made.
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My opinion is to still go for a Santiago or Jepsen type trade if the Twins are contending. The one exception would be a better starter on a somewhat bloated contract with at least 1.5 yrs remaining. Imo though they almost have to pick up a #4 starter for a depth type prospect (#15-30 org range).
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My expectations are tempered by his dreadful debut last year. Unfortunately the reality of the Twins rotation is that he needs to throw a 4.00 ERA (or lower) for them to have any shot at a winning record or contend for the wild card. I don't care if they currently have a winning record without him. They have Tepesch and Hughes in the rotation. So my expectations due to need are a tad higher. It would be really nice if there really wasn't any pressure on him and he could just slide into the #5 spot.
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The Twins are pretenders unless Berrios emulates Liriano (minus the injury) and two of the hard throwing RP prospects solidify the bullpen. Maybe (a reach for me at this point) they can compete for the wild card with the expanded playoffs but a rotation of Ervin - Hector - ? followed up by a bullpen of ????'s isn't going to advance any significant distance in the mostly crapshoot of the playoffs.
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Phil Hughes Embracing New Style
kab21 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What is a Plan C if one of Mejia, Berrios or Tepesch fail or any of the starters get injured? Until Hughes implodes he will have a spot in the rotation because there aren't other alternatives available. Mejia is pretty much the only (halfway talented) option the Twins have unless the Twins have Jorge or Romero skip AAA (with only 2-3 months in AA). This is what I am wondering. Does he get stronger as the season progresses? Possible -
Wolves Draft Thoughts Thread
kab21 replied to ALessKosherScott's topic in Minnesota Timberwolves Talk
I drool over the long term potential of Isaac but he also looks like the classic lottery bust that never develops. I now have him above Markennan. What on earth would you do if you had a top pick and a need at point guard? Do you still take Ball at #2? #3? #4? I absolutely can't stand the circus surrounding him. He is like a more talented Manziel. Completely different circus but I absolutely despise him. -
I like how this form of health savings account works (everybody gets something) complemented by a catastrophic insurance. That creates price sensitivity and protects against bankruptcy type health issues. A better version of what I proposed in another thread. Single payer would also be better than where we are at and is almost certainly the best version of the ACA that could be designed. It's very limited since it fulfills the campaign promise 'if you like your health care you can keep it'. Keeping that system doesn't work long term.
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Injuries will happen and all of your season counts will be trashed. I am also realistic about how much Mauer is going to sit. People can say he should only play 90-100 games/year but that isn't what is going to happen. And most of Joe's days off didn't come until September. He actually played just about every game until (1-2 days off/month) September.
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It isn't that hard to find Grossman playing time. He sits 2x/wk Kepler/Rosario/Buxton alternate sitting 1-2x/wk (like 1 game every other week for each player) Vargas sits 1x/wk Mauer sits 1-2x/wk Having a competent hitter on the bench is a really nice benefit for a team. There are other ways to acquire solid but not great RP'ers imo.
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Or did people have an unfavorable view of the ACA because the GOP was the only one talking about it? They continually attacked it until it was largely unpopular.
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You just aren't making any sense.
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Really? The GOP shifted the election with 'repeal and replace' since the ACA was so 'bad' because only one side talked about it. It certainly has flaws but it was a big improvement and campaigning on how to improve it would have helped rather than hurt.
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Except that the democrat improvements are not compatible with the GOP improvements.There is very little common ground between the two and that is why I don't fault the democrats at all in this current debacle.
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This is not going to sway the repeal and replace agenda. And making all requirements universal is directly in conflict with the GOP agenda of letting states make requirements that are as exclusion riddled as possible if they want. The democrats have been given a 'sit down and shut up' card due to the GOP holding congress and the presidency. I think the democrats should have been making their list of improvements to the ACA more clear during the election. I can't honestly remember one thing they proposed other than repeatedly saying that the ACA was working and would continue to be in place.
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Single payer is a very, very hard concept to sell to the conservative and moderate middle class. The ACA was only passed on repeated campaign promises that if you like your health insurance and health care then you can keep it and the GOP's continual alternative facts have convinced many that the ACA is awful and was the wrong thing to do. It was likely one of the principal issues that caused many swing voters to back Trump even though they hated him personally. With that being said the GOP has not started out their president, senate and House trifecta with popular legislation and could get brutally beaten in the next two elections. It might be possible to sell single payer in the next election cycle to an increasingly liberal voting block though. It would almost certainly hurt their election numbers overall even if it could help them in the long run. The help would be a fairly successful health care system that covers everyone.
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They already have their proposed plan. It is the ACA. Any actual improvements to it that they would like to do would be making it more liberal and less of what the GOP wants. Any 'improvements' that you think they can propose to satisfy the GOP will be a list of concessions that further weakens the ACA and is not something that the democrats should consider.
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Yet people on here are saying don't do it. But the point should be that you approach him about it in July. If he says no then you move on. At least see if he interested in extending early (seemingly contrary to what this board wants for puzzling reasons). We don't know what he is thinking. And don't get stuck on exactly 2/20. It could be higher than that.
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That is why they negotiate on these types of things instead of sitting down in a room and sign a contract in 10 minutes. There are a lot of scenarios that could happen. Santiago could get traded and put up a two awful months headed into FA. The Twins have moved on at that point and his FA market has cooled. Santiago could also feel lucky and finish out the season with a career best ERA and get 4 years like Nolasco. But as I said before I think he likely explores the FA market. An extension is possible though. And I have said 2/20ish. Maybe it ends up being 2/24 with a vesting/team option and a 2-3M option buyout.
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So far the repeal and replace bills have been drafted in secret and they aren't even including the GOP congressman for input. And they are just trying to ram this through congress with only 'campaign promise' as the selling point. The democrats could draft whatever they wanted but it isn't even going to get read by a single GOP congressman. There is no way that they can 'rise above politics and offer some sort of compromise' imo.
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The problem for Santiago is that he doesn't get his results how teams (and forum analysts) want. He has a wimpy fastball/magic stuff and a declining K rate to go along with poor peripherals. He is like the anti-Nolasco. Nolasco has 'stuff' and very good peripherals and it got him a bigger contract than Santiago expects. Most likely he explores FA but anything is possible. He did finish poorly last year and possibly that risk convinces him to take guaranteed money from a team that seems to want him.
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We have seen pitcher's velocities and K rates significantly change when moving to the bullpen. I think we have a really good idea of what kind of starting pitcher Gibson is. The bullpen might be his ticket to being a pretty good pitcher. But right now he can't be successful anywhere. Something is wrong.
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I am really lukewarm for more guaranteed years or significantly more per year. At the same time I am terrified of the Twins 2018 rotation and I think people are a little too optimistic that the Twins can easily go out and sign a comparable pitcher or two.
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2/20ish is compensating accordingly imo. He fairly got 8M in arb last year. I expect him to be exactly what you described so I am not sure how I would set myself up for disappointment (unless he goes Kyle Gibson on us).
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Perpetual rebuilding. Great idea. Especially since Sano's years of guaranteed Twins control are ticking. I don't have any problem trading someone like Dozier where there is depth to replace him but the idea at making a thin rotation even worse for the sake of middling prospect (in Santiago's case) makes zero sense. I could be swayed if the Twins got a haul for Santana but hesitate to trade away the only good SP that the Twins have under control for next season (and an option for the following). And I disagree that they can just trade away Santana and Santiago and then go out and sign new SP'ers in FA. If it was that easy the Twins would have a solid rotation. In fact I propose the opposite. Keep Santana - extend Santiago (in July at what people say is possible - 2/20ish) - SIGN a big FA starter like Darvish or Cueto (ridiculous money) - Berrios excels instead of flounders That is the (risky) path to building a contender in 2018 or 2019. Otherwise this team might as well completely tear it down and build for 2020 and beyond. Forget that.
