kab21

Pitchers can completely change when moved to the bullpen. Pelfrey has a few things that could make him a great reliever. It's at least a plan where the Twins could get a little value out of him. He has a chance to be a mediocre starter but that's the best case as a starter.

It does help. There are starters and there are bench players in AAA. Bench players need to play more than one position to make an MLB team. And just because a guy like Hermann has bench upside doesn't mean he needs to be dumped. There are only X number of legitimately good AAA prospects in Rochester (or any AAA team). The rest are made up of AAAA types (bench upside) or career MiLB'ers.

I would much rather do both. FWIW - Mauer's contract has not had a negative financial impact for the Twins regardless of him being overpaid. Even with that contract they are still well below their spending limit. They could even add another mega contract and be below their limit. With the number of pre-arb players in starting roles and the staggered end of the only significant contracts on the Twins there should be money to spend for a number of years. The choice is spend the money or don't spend it. And the choice is to spread that money over several okay players (from Correia to Hughes to Nolasco level) or to invest in a near premium player like Scherzer/Lester. Undoubtedly the Twins will not but it's certainly possible.

I don't think it should be viewed as an either/or solution. Hitters still put 70-75% of their PA's in play off of elite pitchers in play. That's a lot of fielding opportunities even if you have an elite staff. the one year defensive data shows average or better defensive stats throughout the infield. it also shows dreadfully awful stats for every OF'er but Shafer and Fuld (not many innings for either). It's not a big enough sample size to truly determine an individual's defensive ability but collectively it tells a definitive story. Plays simply were not made (what defensive data measures) by the OF'ers. Given the roster makeup and prospect pipeline this is relatively correctable next season and the season after. Hicks should be better with more experience. Buxton will be up at some point providing better defense. I don't hold out much hope for Arcia defensively but maybe he won't be as awful. I like Nori Aoki as a stopgap OF'er/4th Of'er.

You can't make any conclusions based on completely different situations. Wainwright in particular is bad example to use since he had 800 MiLB innings. At that point his arm doesn't need to be babied even if he pitched a year in relief. I think using the plus 30 rule for pitchers that spent a year relieving after pitching 160+ innings in the minors is a misuse of the rule.

Wainwright's situation is completely irrelevant to Meyer (but not to May). Wainwright threw 182 innings the year before he spent a year in relief as a rookie. This is one of the reasons that this plus 30 rule needs further analysis in each situation. If someone is injured or pitches in relief it doesn't set that person back to 70IP to 100 to 130 to 160 to 190. further analysis of some of the Twins pitching prospects For Meyer he has pitched 130 - 70 - 130 innings so I would expect him to be limited again next year in the plus 30-40 range. Berrios is 20 yrs old and has gone 100-140 and I would expect him to be limited in the 160-170 range next year. Trevor May almost certainly will not have an innings limit next year even though he only has 120 IP so far. He has pitched 150-160 innings for the 3 previous seasons. There's no reason he can't go 200 innings. Thorpe and Gonsalves will certainly have innings limits but it might not be plus 30. I wouldn't be surprised if they were allowed to go 120+ allowing them to pitch most of the season.

Sano and Buxton would have to become truly elite players for them to be too expensive even if the Twins signed an ace now or in a few years. And even then I'm not convinced that it would be impossible to afford all three since the overlap would only be a couple of years. It's also a problem that I would be happy to have 7+ years from now.

Berrios isn't in the same trap as Gibson or Meyer. Both were recovering from injuries those years. Berrios will be held back next year because he is 20 yrs old. I find it interesting that there seems to be a jump to conclusions that it is good to rush young pitchers to the majors and pitching 180+ innings/season. There have been a ridiculous number of TJ injuries but it's possible that pushing young pitchers too fast has been a contributor.

Perception is interesting. Arcia is a sure K and Vargas has a good eye at the plate. Vargas - 26% K rate Arcia - 31% K rate The difference is that one of these is getting a lot of hits when not K'ing (Vargas and .398 BAPIP) while the other is not (Arcia and .285 BAPIP).

Right now he has a .398 BAPIP. If his BAPIP drops to .300 with the same K rates then he's a .225/.275/.400/.675 hitter (at DH). We don't know exactly what his BAPIP will drop to since each hitter can control his BAPIP to a certain extent. We do know that .398 is unsustainable by anyone and he's a big guy so beat out IF singles won't boost his BAPIP. Luckily Vargas has a history of good K/BB rates in the minors and it's not a surprise that a rookie loses his plate discipline on his initial callup. Of course Arcia hasn't improved his plate discipline.

In 3 years Nolasco will be a FA and Mauer will be a year away from FA. If extensions are pushing the payroll through the roof then those multiple prospects or young players are turning into All-Stars. That is a problem that I would love to have. Love, Love, Love.

Things are not as rosy because the Twins will have lost 90-100 games for 4 straight years. One way to grow revenues (or keep them from sliding) is to field a better team by investing in it like you would a business. It was tough to make an argument 2-3 years ago to go after big name FA's since there was nothing resembling a core and most of the prospects were 3+ years away. Now there is a core developing with multiple top prospects ready to be called up. It's pretty reasonable to think that an elite player would still be in his prime during a Twins playoff run if the Twins ante'd up this offseason or next even if they weren't immediately contenders.

I don't believe this is true. The Twins aren't a low revenue team and they could have 2/3 of their starting lineup making <3M (most of them @500K) and several parts of their rotation and bullpen. If you look at the numbers the Twins have about 70ish M committed to fill out a roster and only 1 or 2 positions to spend it at. There is a lot of money available even if they won't have a 150M payroll. I expect them to stay somewhat conservative but that doesn't mean that they can't.

I don't think Ryan will pursue this route because it's unRyanlike but there are people on here that are making an argument that the Twins shouldn't even look at pitching because we need to make sure that Milone and May have a clear path to the rotation. The rotation is not fine. Players like these are better kept as plan B/C instead of the AAAA cannon fodder that we have seen in the past and are likely to see more of.

I think prospects are an overvalued currency to some extent but I don't see how this helps. The kind of deals that typically happen with prospects are for guys with 2 years before FA (Samardzija for example). This is not the right time for that kind of deal. That is not the window for the team. However signing a Lester/Scherzer only cost money. And the Twins have money to spend. A lot of it. I find it ironic that a season ticket holder made the argument that the Twins are going to lose a lot of revenue (fewer season tickets) because of how poor the team has been so they shouldn't sign an ace that instantly gives their rotation credibility and shortens the rebuilding window. Hughes//Gibson/Nolasco? is a solid rotation but a Scherzer/Hughes/Gibson is really nice.

I don't understand why or what we are trading guys like Meyer or Berrios. If it were me I would almost all of next years FA chips into Lester/Scherzer to go with Hughes/Gibson and possibly a healthy Nolasco and then add Meyer and/or Berrios to that. This is what STL has been doing. They had a good rotation but whenever they have an injury/disappointment they have a Miller/Wacha/Lynn/Kelly/etc to call up from the minors. I doubt this will happen but I think just like the last several years we will see that the Twins rotation still has holes next year. The goal shouldn't be to simply put a rotation together of average pitchers with a couple good but not great pitchers. And imo that is what a Nolasco/Hughes/Gibson/Milone/May/Meyer rotation is. That rotation is risky and is two steps away from cycling AAAA pitchers through it for some/most of the season.

If possible there is no roster reason to not add a pitcher that would be the best pitcher on the staff. It might not make financial sense to spend 150M on a pitcher but this team sorely lacks a #1/2 and likely will for quite awhile. Considering that the Twins have so many pre arb players set to start with more prospects ready to fill and a low payroll for the next few seasons there is money available to burn. Better to concentrate that money in one great pitcher than spreading it around to several maybe decent players.

BA with RISP from 200 odd PA's (2013-2014)? This is a poor argument due to small sample size.

Let me play doctor for a little bit. When you have an injury or are recovering from an injury it's pretty common to injure another area because you are overcompensating for that injury. If he also got a nasty virus during that time it would affect how much rehab he could do further delaying his return. As a fan you hate uncertainty though. You want to hear X injury (a normal injury) and he will return in Y weeks (typical recovery). I do not like diagnosis that is nothing more than 'we don't know what's wrong or how long it will take' but stuff like that happens. I didn't like bilateral leg weakness, Morneau's concussion, Meyer's shoulder issue last year, Rosario's issues this season or Buxton's recent injury. At least with Sano we know what is wrong and when he will be back. Unfortunately not every injury is as clearcut.

The one difference is that there is a group of Twins fans that don't give Joe his due in his normally good season because he doesn't hit HR's or drive in silly RBI numbers.

It's pretty common for catchers to take a day off in a Saturday night/Sunday afternoon situation. I understand the Mauer dislike but his career stats are pretty great. His career OBP would rank 3rd this season. His career OPS/wOBA/wRC+ would all rank top 20/25ish in the majors this season. He might not hit HR's but he is really good. I expect Mauer to have a typical season next year and none of his detractors will give him his due. they will just say that's what he's supposed to do since he is getting paid big bucks.

They have patched the team together with mediocre vets while waiting for the farm system to produce. You can't just press a magic button and have AA/AAA loaded with ready to be called up prospects. That is how most teams rebuild. it will be interesting to see how many mediocre vets are brought in this year. There really isn't a lot of room for them since quite a few prospects are in the majors or are on the verge. I'm hoping for 2 quality FA signings (OF and SP) and not much else. Pablo is an unrealistic target imo. He's going to get paid pretty well on name value alone. Plouffe is the stop gap 3Bman and really not that bad. No reason to pay big bucks on another stop gap and then force Mauer to the OF.

I would be very interested in acquiring a good starter this offseason. You are right that there are very few holes to fill. C/1B/2B/3B/DH are locked up. No team should pay for RP'ers. Good SS's are almost never available. That leaves picking up an OF bat and SP'ing. Despite having options the starting pitching is full of question marks. Hughes - good gibson - not great but solid Nolasco - red flags on this guy until he is healthy and effective for the next 12 months. I have my doubts. Milone - is next year's version of Worley/Diamond/Blackburn/Silva/KC/Pavano. If things are good then he's alright and if he's just a little off then it's a disaster. May - a good prospect but not a great one Meyer - a great prospect with injury/durability red flags I almost certainly know that the Twins won't be shopping in the Lester/Scherzer market but Iwakuma (?), Shields and ESantana are out there. The Twins have 60M committed (plus Plouffe in arb) and almost no holes to fill. I would go after a potential #1/2 because they have options for #3/4/5 starters and they don't have anywhere else to spend the money.

Let's consider the irony. Almost the entire board complains that the Twins are playing veterans during a rebuild and expects every 30+ player to be traded but some also complain that the Twins aren't making big splashes into FA every season. The fact is that the Twins have only had a few seasons to be able to spend money in FA since Target Field opened. For the most part they have sucked during that time and they still aren't the Yankees or Red Sox. They won't be able to spend their way out of the cellar. Making any conclusions about a team's willingness to spend in FA based on a handful of rebuilding seasons will not give you an accurate conclusion. FWIW - The 2012 offseason was even worse than the 2013 offseason for SP'ing. There was buehrle and C.J. Wilson (15M/yr) and Edwin Jackson. I'm certainly not going to criticize anyone for not spending silly money on average at best (and potentially much worse) starting pitching. You could criticize him for not making brilliant moves like trading a setup guy for a cheap average starter (Travis Wood), for picking up a young failed prospect (Arrieta) that has turned into a stud and a new failed prospect (turner). But he actually has been doing this with his best trade chips by adding May and Meyer while buying low (not bargain bin) on Hughes. the Twins still end up with too many flyers on pitchers without stuff but there has been an organization shift and stuff is actually considered in the draft, trades and FA now. It's progress.

Unrealistic expectations. Bargain bin doesn't equal the 20th highest FA contract in an offseason. It's not a massive splurge but it is not like shopping at Goodwill.