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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    I was thinking Sasaki over Profar, but no accounting for taste.
  2. Jocko87
    You need to get out more.
  3. Jocko87
    100%. Media leaks are just what they want out there in important situations. I have been running this time line through my head. If a transaction is to be closed by opening day we should be very close to finding out who it is. Unless they want to keep it quiet until it’s final, which wouldn’t make a ton of sense, we are getting close to the point where things are getting signed. We are close to the point where if we don’t know a name, an opening day close becomes very unlikely.
  4. Jocko87
    Yup, been a lot of gag worthy editorial decisions in the last few months in spite of ample evidence no such certainty existed. The only certain thing was that us rubes (TD staff included) were never going to know anything until it was announced. Now, we go the other way even though we should have the same level of uncertainty about ant-fing one sentence.
  5. Jocko87
    I don't know that its changed much but arbitrators have been notorious for leaning on counting stats rather than short peaks or half seasons. Missing significant time with an injury has always been a killer for arbitration. Stewart is another. Fact of the matter is that Lewis didn't have much of a case. He had a hot few months but otherwise was injured or was meh minus on the field. Tantalizing, yes, but not worth much in arbitration. It mirrors Boras attitude change as well. They know. He's gotta put it on the field.
  6. Jocko87
    I think this matches my eye test too. When he needs to go get it, he still can. The first three plays highlighted are the first thee I think of from last year because they make it very obvious he was committed to adjusting his approach to not risk everything every time. All in unfamiliar national league parks, he's not trying play hero but maybe still a little tentative on playing the ball with time to think about it. That should be better this year. He's committed to adjusting to get more time on the field. More time on the field will pile up DRS with just normal (for him) plays. If he hurts himself on the wall in the postseason, fine. That's the whole point. He can still own the wall batter than anyone, once or twice.
  7. Jocko87
    As a card carrying founding member of the group, we use terms most normies 😉aren’t allowed.
  8. Jocko87
    Sbrnerds hate intangibles mainly because they can't be measured. Data boys hate anything they can't measure, often to their detriment. Teams and coaches love them. But both agree that the player has to be able to play first. But today, 100+ posts. I can't really see that this does anything for the 2025 squad. It feels as simple as a former top prospect catcher, available for a song, to a team with jack nothing in the minor league catching ranks. We've talked many times about the lack of anyone who can catch in the organization and this just makes sense from that standpoint.
  9. Jocko87
    I listened carefully to his interview, did I mischaracterize anything he said? Or did I call out your mischaracterization?
  10. Jocko87
    The Minnesota Twins were the second worst team in baseball from 2011 until he was fired. The failed GM to consultant/special advisor career path is very well worn in all industries. I know it well myself. He retired from the Phillies in 2022 and Dombrowski called him to chat about knowing Max in the minor leagues. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not exactly an I wish I could hire you out of retirement to run my operations endorsement. We can be sentimental about his long stay in Minnesota with the benefits of hindsight (Falvey will get the same treatment) and still recognize that he didn't leave much of a core despite drafting high every year. I don't have any animus for Terry Ryan, but he hasn't been a savvy baseball operator for 20 years.
  11. Jocko87
  12. Jocko87
  13. Jocko87
    That group of killers won 59 games and made some of the most conservative owners we've ever seen demand change. Surely you aren't comparing Falvey to the group that got the Twins to actually fire someone. That some of them won a participation trophy popularity contest once or twice in their careers (most after Falvey took over) isn't the flex you think it is. The top 40 prospects list of 2015 is pretty bleak. All-Star games don't measure anything. Be reasonable. I'll grant we are still early in the results for Falvey at the major league level but how long does the average prospect take to make an impact? That made up metric of yours will be leveling out shortly. Falvey as a free agent has 20 suitors. I would have used a higher number but apparently Roki Sasaki only has 20 interested teams. What's Terry Ryan up to these days?
  14. Jocko87
    The 59 win core? With an antiquated disaster of a player development group? Or the current core, which he built, with the overhauled player development department, which he overhauled, with the budget he demanded and spent every cent of? Demanding so much budget he made the owners realize they could no longer afford to stay in the business. Should be damn near Minnesota royalty, if I'm honest. For all the credit the Vikings get and deserve for a competitive rebuild, Falvey should get just as much credit. He and Levine re-built the whole damn thing without ever actually blowing it up. He owns it now and you should be buying stock while you still can. Being a contrarian can only go so far as a shtick.
  15. Jocko87
    My core contention is that they intended to step up in class, then the rest of the family realized how much that actually cost. When the rest of the businesses are likely flat at best, it’s a tough sell to multiple family members who are indifferent to baseball.
  16. Jocko87
    What @SF Twins Fan said. Budget stability is more important than a high budget. If the new buyer is the Ishbas, I would expect Falvey to be safe. Listening to Justin in some podcasts he only buys businesses that he believes in the management team and has good bones in need of resources. The Twins would seem to fit that model. I don’t think in any way that Falvey needs a blank check to succeed, but if he didn’t have to be dead nuts perfect all the time we would see the most effective Falvey. Having to allegedly worry about 10m and 7m contracts for players we think can help the team should not be an item he wastes bandwidth on. I’d be willing to bet he doesn’t mind paying either player that salary for their contributions-just check replacement cost. Just make the proper baseball decisions-some will fail spectacularly. All I hope for is that a new owner frees Falvey up financially to make good mistakes.
  17. Jocko87
    It's not impossible a special dispensation can be made due to critical timing specific to the business for a shared risk one time spend. I'm reaching, but not impossible. If it's this close, it does mean any random 130m number is out the window. It's almost certain things are basically frozen if it's actually this close, including speculation of self-imposed (hur-dur) cuts. Falvey's dialing finger is probably twitching though.
  18. Jocko87
    Everyone involved was likely already on the pre-approved MLB list just waiting for something to come available. That vote is probably a formality at this point. These things can drag or close quickly. Things that make it go fast are a motivated seller (check) books in order (we think check) and a buyer willing to overlook rounding errors (maybe). It can close in weeks if it all comes together. All the bug stuff like a stadium is in order. Falvey late off season powder go bang.
  19. Jocko87
    I think it's quite clear that you can hear what ever confirms your priors in any of the payroll quotes you can dig up. Absolutely unacceptable for the editor of this fine website to use phrases like this and let writers continually pound the most negative interpretations of such material. Self-imposed narrative setting. We will know, when we know.
  20. Jocko87
    I'm not sure you supported this assertion. Given all you laid out, I'd say it was quite the opposite. Any upside on trading Paddack is at the trade deadline, as it always has been.
  21. Jocko87
    Widely regarded is a stretch term. If 2 of 4 picks still have upside potential that's higher than average prospect hit rate. Sabato was always a stretch but may have resulted in clarity in drafting positional flexibility early.
  22. Jocko87
    Wut. A good argument could be made that they signed the team MVP for $5.5m.
  23. Jocko87
  24. Jocko87
    This is truly the nut they need to crack. Probably a bit of local team bias but a consistently top 5 farm system should graduate more lineup lock players. We are still playing pick a spot with every guy in his third year. Squinting to make Miranda and Julien maybe 1st baseman isn't a great last step of player development. On the topic, I do understand why they are being patient with these guys. Unlocking the kids has always been the key.
  25. Jocko87
    Gee, when you lay it out like that I don't mind doing very little even less. The rest of the division is actively getting worse while the Twins are figuring out how to extract their talent. Advantage-push. At worst. The sky isn't actually falling.
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