old nurse

for a minimal wage

He can be good, and he's still young. How much will it take? His last contracr was 5.5. Considering what Baker got, I think that would be the starting point for a 1 year deal.

Couldn't agree more. I rest my case. Clearly you need to rest your case until you understand what is being measured

We know that. What we don't know is if "by the numbers" = "actually played well." The talent is better assessed when you have more data. That is very basic, first concept, simple concept of statistics. I think the very basic, first concept, simple concept of statistics is, "garbage in, garbage out." Garbage in, garbage out is for computer programming. Understanding what is being measured is statistics. Clearly it is useless to explain it to you.

By the numbers Valencia played well for a short stretch of time. Whatever motivated him to do so is clearly ancient history. As the sample size of his defense grew larger, his overall predictor of play became clearer. That is why you do not look at several small samples. You look at the whole pile of statistics of the playing career. Is a Joe Mauer batting average against AAAA pitchers in September indicative of his talents against an ace? Is what any September call up does 100% reliable for predicting future batting average? Brian Dinkleman batted .305 in 2011. Batting averages in spring training. By spring training numbers, Sean Burrows should have been a star.Small sample sizes. Look at the at bats versus the top line pitchers they faced would give a better indication of the talent. The talent is better assessed when you have more data. That is very basic, first concept, simple concept of statistics.

We have been through this, and I've explained why "the law of large numbers" isn't applicable, when you don't know the accuracy of the data you're inputing. As for "that didn't happen," From Mitchel Lichtman ("MGL" on various chat boards, the man responsible for UZR): People often say something like, “Well, he had a +10 UZR last year, which means that he actually played well, even though he might be an average or even below average defender.” For example, Jeter had a very nice UZR in 2009, a decent one in 2008, and some terrible ones for many years prior to that. So, he is a perfect example of a below-average defender who played excellent defense last year and pretty good defense the year before, right? Well, maybe and maybe not. A player’s UZR does not necessarily tell you how he actually played just as it does not necessarily tell you what his true talent is. That is a very important point. It is not like we pulled a coin from our pocket and flipped it 100 times and came up with 60 heads (which is entirely possible, even though we presumably have a fair coin). In that case, we can safely say that, yes, we did in fact get 60 heads (Jeter did in fact play well last year), even though we know that the true heads percentage of our coin is around 50% (Jeter’s true talent at SS is very likely below-average). UZR does not work that way. Why is that?That is because it is not measuring something that is categorized, like a coin flip which either comes up heads or tails, or BA, whereby a player either gets a hit or he doesn’t, or even simple Zone Rating, where a fielder either fields a ball within his zone or he doesn’t. And here is more from the same kind of post UZR tries to record a player’s likely true talent and estimate his future performance based on the nuances of the batted ball and the player’s response to those nuances. It is not trying to capture exactly what happens on the field according to some arbitrary categories, like most of the offensive metrics (which make no distinction between a lucky ground ball bleeder through the “5-hole” or a clean, line drive base hit to the outfield), even the advanced ones like wOBA or linear weights. Sorry it is not a black and white number for you.

I've never understood the theory that something which everyone says is inaccurate in small samples is suddenly accurate if you pile enough of those inaccurate small samples on top of each other. That seems to me like saying "I know 1 + 1 doesn't equal 3, but if I add 1 + 1 = 3 enough times, I'm sure it will be correct." A large sample size doesn't get accurate by adding together a bunch of inaccurate small samples. Edited. Should have read the whole thread. Can somebody send Chief a book like "statistics made easy" ?

It could mean Marcum and Sanchez. That would be aggressive.

Yes they would have. Based on what they complain about they appear to have expected as sure thing front end starter for Span. After being teased in the media about going after guys like Shields and Cingrani, can you see why expectations had to be adjusted? Media claims are about as close to reality as Thyrloss's last scoop. If Shields is traded it is going to net Tampa more than anything the Twins would offer. I am not sure what to make of the Reds talk. Shortstops seem harder to find than outfielders so it would have taken more than Span to swing that.

Yes they would have. Based on what they complain about they appear to have expected as sure thing front end starter for Span.

Half of the views are from Dave and joking going back and forth.

Yeah, that simply isn't true nor will you provide one shred of evidence stating such. There is no need to provide any more shreds of evidence, it's already ubiquitously abundant, from the Twins own mouths and actions. Trying not to violate policy here. One trade of a player does not make for a salary dump. No FA signings when there have not yet been any significant FA signings does not mean the Twins are not going to spend any money. So what kind of thought process leads to jokin's statement?

If for some reason they sign or trade for those two maybe the Twins would sign or trade for two stellar middle infielders.

Your bad, he said 2 of the three.. 17-18 million might be more of the figure per year needed to sign them.

Liriano should find someplace like Miami to pitch. No pressure to win and he will do fine.

The number of players the Twins picked up from other organizations were not scouted by the Twins when they traded for them? That they traded for someone else's minor leaguer is no sin. BTW I think Knoublauch had to play second because there was a better SS named Gagne ahead of him.

The revolving started with Smith as GM.

Evidence of Absence? You can't prove a negative. With neurology a lot of times all you have is evidence of absence after an event.

100 billion is a conservative estimate of how many neurons there are in a brain. The exact number that were moved to now different spots in Morneau's brain is unknown. It is, however, a good reason to not hit as well as he used to.

If he remains a "star" player on offense and defense, it remains a good deal for the team. Longoria has more than enough money not to feel "cheated". The unobvious pressure is locking up a star player so than you can go about working on the next three, Shields, Price and Hellickson. Why wait until the last minute? Why not show your commitment to your players with mutually beneficial contracts?

30+ hr, 100++ rbi, and a 900+ OPS a year and only 32 years old would net you more than 10 million a year

The clubs with the large TV contracts would appear to be making the most regular appearances in the playoffs. Many insist the playoffs are a crapshoot. There stands just a great a chance of the big contract teams winning, Yankees, Philies, Rangers, Angeles as the Giants or Rays

Aggressive to get to 70-75 wins? That would also be saying that your free agents were busts.

Just curious--how does one track that down to find out? Not a defense of any poster/opinion. You need access to users' IP addresses. I'm pretty sure they're not the same person, BTW. The person would have to operate on a technical proficiency level that is... Unexpected, given their writing style. Separate devices, seperate networks and a new identity would allow dakota to bypass his banning. Seems strange that trader t starts up after dakota's 3rd banning. It must be tough for him to occasionally use the shift key. I thought dakota was probably using a mobile device, thus easier not to use caps.

They scout these players so they should know what they can or can't do. The question then becomes can the coaching staff put it together for the player to succeed?