old nurse

With the money the Cubs have to spend, the results should be better. Every year a new bad team.

Totally missed sarcasm

If everyone pitches to their maximum potential they might do well. Feldman's last good season was 4 years ago, Bakers last good one was 3 years ago. Garza only puts up great numbers the first year he is with a new team. Jackson wins about one more game than he loses every year. By salary, that is your ace. I think it is sort of like Twins 2011 and 2012. If everyone reproduces their 2010 season the team will be fine

If the prime objective of offense is to score runs and stikeouts do not inhibit run production by the numbers, then why should it matter if the pitcher has a strikeout? It can't be both ways. It was your article. By Riverbrian's graphs that much spread in the K9 pattern would suggest there is low correlation k/9 to era. Dr Marshall when he studied it found the correlation to be .22, ie low. http://www.drmikemarshall.com/ILoveStrikeoutsHateHitsandExtraBaseHitsandDoNotMindWalks.html Also strikeouts per plate appearance is different than k/9. Again, they drew a line, but what was the reliability? It looks blob like at the low end.

As you can see by the round, lifeless blob in the middle of the graph, there is virtually no positive correlation between a team's strikeout totals and its runs-scored totals. When it comes to offense, an out is an out is an out. On an individual level, the evidence against strikeouts as the scourge of the earth only gets more damning. Check out the correlation between Ks and the various elements of offensive production: Correlation of SO/PA with (all players 1950-2002, 300+ PA) Metric Correlation----------------------ISO +0.388SLG +0.198BB/PA +0.125OBP -0.100AVG -0.290OPS +0.106MLVr +0.005 Same article says as a batter if you strike out it is no big deal.

Had to truncate as much as possible. Of the K/9 teams, only the Dodgers had a winning record, For the ground ball teams, the Twins and Angels were top 5 in wins through that period.

02-10. gb %. [TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 950] [TR=class: rgRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular] TB.[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]40.7 %[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right].1[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rgAltRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]Sea.[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]41.8 %[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rgRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]3[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]LAA.[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]41.8 %[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]178.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rgAltRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]4[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]Twins[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]42.3 %[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]189.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] K9 [TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 950] [TH=class: rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TH=class: grid_line_breakh rgHeader, bgcolor: gray, align: right][/TH] [TR=class: rgRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]1[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]Cub[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]8.02[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]162.0[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rgAltRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]2[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]Astro[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]7.28[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]141.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rgRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]3[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]LAD[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]7.23[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]151.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: rgAltRow] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]4[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular]Ariz.[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, bgcolor: #DEE0C8, align: right]7.23[/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD] [TD=class: grid_line_break, align: right]168.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Would not a lower ERA mean your team has a better chance of winning? From his data and final conclusion the quality pitcher can make the tougher pitch to hit. Sometimes it will be a strike, sometimes a ball, but the end result if it is hit is less damaging. If you want to go a better correlation on winning then take a look at the top 10 lowest era teams. All but the Mariners had winning records. The Mariners offense was among the worst. The key for ground balls to be effective outs is to have low on base percentage and high range infielders.

Is this becoming a thread where if you can't say something to the topic you pst irrelevance?

from Dr. Mike Marshal retired pitcher " I determined that the Correlation Coefficient between Earned Run Average (ERA) and Strikeouts per Game (Ks/9) is -0.22. The negative number only means that we listed earned run average (ERA) from low to high and strikeouts (Ks/9) from high to low. That the correlation between earned run average (ERA) and strikeouts per game (Ks/) is -0.22 means that strikeouts do not significantly measure the quality of baseball pitchers." He did find that low walk ratios do not correlate to low ERA but a high walk ratio does correlate to higher ERA. The conclusion he came up with was " In conclusion, I believe that these statistics indicate that, if it means that baseball pitchers challenge themselves to throw tougher pitches in tough situations, such that they give up fewer hits and extra base hits, it is better for baseball pitchers to walk a few more batters."

What infield help is out there to get as a free agent?

When did Story become more than a 40th person on a roster?

Haha on the Lannan incentives. He might make 2 of the incentives. To reach arb value would mean he has pitched more games than he ever has as well as 60 more innings. For what Storey does the Twins have a better version in the bullpen called Duensing.

Rather than respond to all of your posts today, let me just give one blanket comment on all off them here. Spot on bright on a cold dark winter day.

So you should ignore the tomorrows? OK Gibson or Pelfrey could be as good as Baker. They individually might pitch as much this year as Baker does. Worley as good as Feldman. DeVries, Deduno or Duensing as good as Vilanueva

The lack of Lannan being thrown into the Span trade was evidence that Ryan did not think he was worth the arbitration price. That proved to be accurate with his low figure he signed for. Waiver wire pickups are different than free agents. What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference? Essentially they have been fringe AAAA players. There are plenty of people complaining of the last bunch he signed.

Long term Feldman is better than Meyers? Worley and May are combined worse than Baker? Oh, you meant for this week.

Career spot starter with a high 80 fastball. Cubs had to pay 5/mil a year for that? Guess you can't complain that Correia's signing was out of line

1. Here is to hoping that Benson Arcia and Hicks play so well this spring they can't be sent down. 2. Last year in AAA Ramirez was a better player than Thomas so I would hope that he gets another shot before Thomas

Where do I find the stat expected WAR? If that is what the basis for payment is than Spideyo has no shot at finding out if his team has gotten a good deal based on current WAR. Thank you for proving my point.

So far this year the Cubs have signed no one. Nor have the Mets, Marlins, Cleveland, Colorado, Houston or SanDiego. Arizona signed McCarthy, KC got Guthrie, Seattle Iwakuma. If I missed a mid market team in a down cycle, sorry.

Please reread my above post as I thought I explained it perfectly clea my position on assessing a pitcher's value with no outside influences. I notice you quickly dropped the correlation to reality bit with WAR, pun intended. I went to ESPN. Took the top ranked players from the free agent class from this year that have signed. I divided the average per year from the contract and divided it by Fangraph's WAR value for last year. Nothing stands out as a developing pattern. Yes the sample size is small enough to not be significant yet Upton 4.5 mil per War , Hamilton's 5.7 Grienke 4.8, Kuroda 3.8 and Haren 7.2 It would lead one to believe there would be no pattern.

In a job market there are scarce professions. Elite level pitchers are propbably the most scarce. They pretty much have options on where to play. Why on earth would any free agent want to play on a last place team despite overtures? That leaves you fighting to get the ones that the top does not want. That usually happens late. The big boys finish their shopping soon. The cellar dwellers will have their chance next. It at this case is not accepting less, rather having enough sense to show some patience.

Easily measured is the abscense of the variability of the batter, park and defense is velocity, movement of the ball and control. Those are the only independent variables that are truly under a pitcher's control. Stikeouts are influenced by the eye and judgement of the batter. While ball 4 may be a mistake on the pitcher's part, the other three may be an attempt to fool the hitter into swinging. The fourth one may as well be also depending on the batter. To propose a relative measure of skill level independent of variables of a skill that is dependent on variables iss a difficult task. For entertainment purposes you can discuss WAR,,,, fip, xfip, but it does not translate to value when you look at the contracts. The origional question was how do you tell you have good value, or bang for your buck in terms of pitching. In terms of pitching, those that fall into the category of a WAR less than two you have no clue as an independent factor. Does the limitations of the average pitcher fit into your team's composition and ballpark. If as a team it works you got bang for your buck, if it does not work, you did not. In addition, accumulated WAR for a team correlates to ..83 for a team win total. It does not mean that the individual stat is accurate for the player. WAR is not a predictor of future performance rather a look back on what was. If it only describing with an .83 correlation, then no it is not a good measure.

You don't need much for statistics to understand the value of a David Price nor to understand that Hector Noesi had a bad season. The issue would be assessing the relative values of the middle of the pack. Baseball remaina a team sport. Not many pitchers have every skill. The factors of your home park and defense of the players behid the pitcher would influence a team's opinion of the value of the player. Putting a player in a position to succede will influence the outcomes measured by WAR. David Price would pitch completely differently to a major league team with major leagures behind him than a bunch of little leaguers. How your team plays behind you will change how you pitch. You cannot isolate that. The pitcher in WAR is deducted for giving up a home run. Is there a stat that says every home run was a mistake pitch? ANd yes 85% correlation is good, not excellent. It is leaving a lot of room for error. The variabilty of WAR from year to year is either the player is inconsistent, or the stat is.