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old nurse

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Everything posted by old nurse

  1. old nurse
    The ability to strike out or walk batters is not catcher depedent but pitcher dependent. The variabilty of a pitcher from day to day to strike people out is highly variable. The variability from pitcher to pitcher to strike people out is large. you assume over time that the catchers would catch each pitcher an equall number of times. You would appear to me to then also assume that a pitcher's good day and bad days are catcher dependent. You see a differnce in the numbers, you have to ask yourself why. You blame the Suzuki, but do not control for any other variable. The other variables have meaning. They do influence % for the catcher.
  2. old nurse
    It is broad but not definitive in the big picture of the game. It show that Suzuki needs a little work. If he didn't, he wouldn't be signed for what he was paid. In the analysis. Is he better than "others" catcher? Probably not as it was he who was traded and not "others". Not exactly high level prospects either. He will start as the starter because he was probably the best available option after AJ signed elsewhere. If runs allowed when he caught are not allowed because of the variations in staff, how could balls and strikes be? Lower K and higher BB is not bad if it also means there were less well hit balls. Joe Niesse has a worse K% and BB% than Jermey Hefner yet had .5 lower ERA. Something happened as each had about the same number of starts.
  3. old nurse
    The premise was that a lower K% and higher BB% were somehow bad. I asked for proof. There is how you call a game. There is what you are trying to do with each pitch. There have been long threads on shifting. Are you doing shifts because of the pitch you are throwing is going to strike him out? There are many different goals with each pitch. Prove the outcome of a game is different with Suzuki in there. That is my point.
  4. old nurse
    If you are saying that the catcher is responsible for the balls and strikes then why didn't you run the numbers for ERA and win/loses? Swinging strikeouts versus called strike 3? That there is or isn't a stikeout is not always on the catcher. What is the difference in how the games are called. Yes you can state with 100% certainty that There are more strikeouts when others were catching, and more ball 4 when Suzuki was catching. If you wish to say there are outcomes based on K% and BB% consider that Suzuki's numbers are better than the Twins over the last three years
  5. old nurse
    If Guerrier ends up organizational filler see Brandon Boggs. Minor league contracts are no guarantee of staying with the team. There still is no downside. If you were confident everyone was stepping up you wouldn't sign him. If Guerrier steps up great, if he doesn't AAA. Nobody steps up from AA, you have your hole filled. If someone does, there is no cost to cut.
  6. old nurse
    Baker signed with Seattle. Can't bring back that winner.
  7. old nurse
    In BB% I am not as worried about. The question I would ask does Suzuki call for a pitcher to make a tough pitch. If so, the BB % will go up. SO may not go up, but weakly hit ball % would. The % well hit balls would have been a good comparison, but that statistical comparison was not run. If you think it doesn't make a difference, Maddux is in the HOF with a below average k/9, but because batters couldn't make good contact he got outs. On the other hand, there are a few pitchers out of baseball right now because hitters could make good contact. In those three seasons, how many times was "other" catching the same pitcher as Suzuki against the same team. Does each pitcher on the team have the exact same K% as the other pitchers on the staff? No. Neither Oakland nor Washington would have had a static staff of pitchers. There is no proof even with the statistics that they were catching the same types of pitchers. Now, which catcher got to catch the 4/5 starter or the replacement pitcher for the injured starter more versus the 1/2 starter? If it is skewed one way or the other, the SO % for the catcher will be different. There are so many variables unaccounted for that would change the percentages. Lastly there is the significance in the difference in K% between Suzuki and "other" In 3 years the pitchers thrown to Suzuki had a K % of 18.79% versus 20.45. For every 60 batters "other" got one more strikeout. In making an assumption of league average WHIP and double plays are maintained it is not a strikeout per game unless it is a 14 inning game.
  8. old nurse
    The question is, of what use is something that is grossly wrong 30% of the time? It does not provide useful material if it is that wrong. The argument that it is better than anything else is hollow. It is not anti statistic argument that I have. It is that the statical method used is grossly flawed. If your analysis of a 40 man roster leaves you that far in error, you have bad analysis. Figure out why you are wrong so often and try again. I said use it for entertainment value. That is all Davenport model is good for. It cannot predict improvements in player. It anticipates declines for individual players that may or may not be there. It has no way to determine the effect of changing teams will benefit/hurt a player. The statistical bias of a design is no different than a gut feeling of an individual that spends a lifetime involved in a game.
  9. old nurse
    You and some guy named Smith have about the same knowledge of Ramos
  10. old nurse
    By your argument the statistics that are the premise of the article would be eroneous as there would never be a large enough sample size to suit anyone.
  11. old nurse
    2012 statistics comparing Strasburg pitching to both Ramos and Suzuki more than prove the point. The article was written in May of 2013 and would have suffered from the complaint of small sample size In three starts with Ramos behind the plate this year, Strasburg has a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings with 18 strikeouts, 13 hits allowed and two walks. In three starts throwing to Suzuki, Strasburg has a 5.19 ERA over 17 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts, 10 walks and 20 hits allowed. (Strasburg also threw to Jhonatan Solano once, allowing three earned runs in seven innings.)
  12. old nurse
    From a Washington Post article In eight career starts with Ramos catching before this year, Strasburg punched up a 1.64 ERA in 44 innings with 39 strikeouts, 34 hits allowed and three walks. After he arrived last season, Suzuki caught Strasburg five times. The results: 26 innings, a 4.50 ERA, 27 strikeouts, 22 hits allowed and 13 walks.
  13. old nurse
    Does the model measure what it is supposed to? I can see that 30% of the time the model is off by more than 10 games for team wins. So given the data they have they are grossly inaccurate. With an error bar that large they should lose credibility.
  14. old nurse
    Looking at the 2012 and 2013 projections for the teams versus what happened on the field would lead me to believe these projections should be taken for entertainment value only. The issue becomes what players will elevate their games. Will being away from Yankee stadium boost Hughes? Is Pelfrey capable of becoming an above average pitcher? Will the players that played a bit in their first season in the majors last year become above average players? Will a rookie surprise? The projection would say no because a computer has no way of knowing this. The teams that won far more than their projections would have had these things happen. If established players go to the mean of their careers and no one develops, it will be a long season.
  15. old nurse
    3/33 versus 12 in the offer. Is that really a significant difference? Bourn was right at the offer
  16. old nurse
    Ian Kinsler had a front loaded contract. A reason for a team to front load a contract would be anticipated cash flow. St Louis can anticipate revenues and project in 2-3 years. If Miller, Wacha et al continue to develop, St Louis in a couple of years would have a payroll issue. It would make sense to pay the player according to anticipated decline. When does baseball and contracts make sense? There is the reason to backload the contract. As time goes on the money is worth less. If you think the contract makes the player's contract an albatross consider the team either way is paying for the player. Either paying the money upfront, or at the end to another team like the Cubs did to get rid of Soriano. Either way the origional club is paying, but the dollars are worth less. 3/30 may be a reasonable contract for Drew. He turned down 1/14. To get 2 more years and 16 million would represent a real loss for Drew in the negotiations. His agent is Boras. When was the last time Boras lost with a major free agent?
  17. old nurse
    I think Ryan did not want to go that long of contract with Garza.
  18. old nurse
    Eades, Melo Chargois and Goodrum will at least try and make you eat your words
  19. old nurse
    Nishi = Punto? Close enough in many people's eyes. There are many who don't care for Punto. Notice the quote "We hope" in there. How many players past having success at the AA/AAA level fail at MLB level?
  20. old nurse
  21. old nurse
    87 twins, for that matter the 87 Cards, too. Pieces were added by trades, but farm systems were not gutted to do so.
  22. old nurse
    There is nothing written in the laws of the universe that states you have to be consistent with an emotional attachment.
  23. old nurse
    Parker;'s article has the table listing the major league average percentage of outs on ground balls is 77.3%. The Orioles and Pirates, two teams listed as frequent over shifters had less than average outs on ground balls. Would the data indicate they are poor fielders and the shifting compensates for that? Just asking. The Bill James article from last season stated that there were about 100 players that the shift was likely to be effective for. Shifting can be an important tool, but 100 players makes it a limited option.
  24. old nurse
    That the Twins are considering him to start shows how little faith they have in their returning starters
  25. old nurse
    Glavine made it in on his first ballot. Other than pitching 4 years longer, what did Glavine do that was better than Mussina? Wins are a team stat. Cy Young awards are a popularity contest. Mussina had the audacity to retire when he was still good, Glavine did not. Cy Young awards are votes based on a subjective opinion on who had the best year, see 1998 Cy Young results. The only thing Glavine did better than Brown or Maddux was win more games. For a career Gavine won 35 more games than Mussina. That was enough to get 409 more HOF votes. What made his career better than Mussina's? A team stat and a beauty contest. There are no individual benchmarks for pitchers other than 300 wins, except if you are Roger Clemons. After Randy Johnson and Mariano Rivera get in there might not be another pitcher for a while. When you look at Morris's career, he never won a beauty contest, he wore out before he could get to 300 wins. He was over the time he pitched one of the best for durability and consistency. He pitched 2 teams to WS wins. In the end, not quite enough.
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