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Oldgoat_MN

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Everything posted by Oldgoat_MN

  1. Oldgoat_MN
    Any changes to player development is going to take a little time. I expected more changes in the organization right away, but we should have anticipated that if these guys are really good and have the team's long term well-being in mind that they would work to fully grasp what the Twins have before they start changing everything. I don't want to wait. I've been watching this sh*t for 6 years. But a long term organization build that results in a competitive baseball year after year is a wiser approach. Good luck guys.
  2. Oldgoat_MN
    And we like Mauer for other reasons, too.
  3. Oldgoat_MN
    I think if Mauer has his AB against LHP severely limited and he can retain his lofty BB% he has a good chance at: 400 AB, .275 BA, .375 OBP, .390 SLG (.765). 12 - 18 doubles, 5 - 8 home runs. And a triple. Mauer should hit a triple.
  4. Oldgoat_MN
    This is the issue I have with Tonkin as a long relief guy. He's not one. If you go to his game logs for 2016 here we see that the vast majority of issues he had were when pitching >1.0 innings. He is a 1 inning pitcher. Is he effective enough in that role to deserve a roster spot? I don't know, but keeping him as a mop-up guy is an inappropriate allocation of resources.
  5. Oldgoat_MN
    I am not a scout. I am just a baseball fan. Would someone please help me understand why Justin Haley is potentially an important part of our future? I'm serious here. If he had his exact history with the Twins would anyone think he was going to get picked up if we sent him down? (I know he would go back to Boston) Would anybody get upset about it? I see nothing in his stats that suggest a soon-to-blossom 26 yo MLB starter. Looking for any insight other than, "He must stay on the team because we selected him in the Rule 5 draft". Thank you in advance.
  6. Oldgoat_MN
    Yeah, middle relievers drive me crazy. Based on FIP, xFIP, WHIP and SIERA our two best bullpen arms last year were May and Boshers. Now Buddy is getting beat up this spring. I would think he has to perform to make the team. He doesn't have the track record Pressly has established.
  7. Oldgoat_MN
    At 19 years old I was not the wisest of young men, but I cannot imagine I would have thought buying 10 cars sounded like a really good idea. It makes me wonder if such excess is indicative of potential issues. I imagine his career will have a lot to do with how quickly he matures. I would wish him good luck if he didn't play for the White Sox. (HT to Bat-Girl)
  8. Oldgoat_MN
    OK. I'll push them back a year.
  9. Oldgoat_MN
    So he's got an SO/9 of almost 9? Awesome, but he clearly needs work. No idea how long he'll be down but I suspect we'll see him pretty soon. I believe they are looking for him to be the full time closer no later than early next year. If he can establish value they will trade him and expect Tyler Jay to be ready by then.
  10. Oldgoat_MN
    Wow! Over 1300 words on why we can have at least some optimism regarding Santiago and you get no positive comments at all. I guess the lines: But can we be optimistic about Santiago delivering a solid season? Something in line with his career averages prior to last year? I think so, yet most Twins fans are trying to find ways to run him out of town. were not changing any minds at all. Everyone still wants to run him out of town! One of the comments even refers to Santiago's age (he's younger than Gibson). Here are a few things I would not put money on regarding Santiago in 2017: > being an All-Star pitcher > being below league average. > being worse than Gibson I think the article showed exactly why there is room for optimism. No idea how all the optimism around ESan having another really strong year, Hughes coming back from surgery and performing well, Duffey and Gibson ignoring last year and recreating their 2015 seasons and Berrios and Mejia pitching well in MLB ran out when it got to Santiago. Guess people just don't like him.
  11. Oldgoat_MN
    I just don't get the Haley thing. If I was DJ Baxendale (full disclosure: I'm not) I would be more than a little upset. I get that folks believe that Haley has more upside than DJ, but DJ is probably looking at it thinking, "Last year in AAA I had a lower WHIP, higher SO/9 and much better SO/W. How does he rate?". Haley is not a Johan Santana picked from a incautious team at the age of 20. He will be 26 in June. I suppose it's even possible he will be one of our better pitchers this year, but I don't see a track record that insists that this will be so.
  12. Oldgoat_MN
    That's not at all what he said. Alex Meyer has issues on the mound. His WHIP in MLB has not yet ever been acceptable. Moving him to the pen is not going to keep him from giving up hit and walks.
  13. Oldgoat_MN
    I would not be surprised to see Tonkin do well someplace else.
  14. Oldgoat_MN
    Well, in his meaningless 7.0 innings he has a ghastly 1.57 WHIP. I kinda feel for these coaches. Only 6 Twins pitchers have thrown more than 10 innings. Is Wimmers a 1.57 WHIP pitcher? Probably not. I think he's better, but I have neither the eyes nor the training to say Wimmers is better than his 1.57 WHIP, or to say that Mejia is better than/not as good as his 1.12 WHIP and 8.79 K/9. Tom Kelly used to say that Kirby Puckett needed all of Spring Training to get ready for the season. He also said Hrbek could come in, play 3 games and he was ready. Everybody is different. A tough job. Hope our coaches make good choices.
  15. Oldgoat_MN
    Hector Santiago is 29 years old and has posted an ERA+ of >100 3 years of his career. Alex Meyer is 27 years old and has yet to post a single year with an ERA+ of >=90. Not the same. It may happen that Meyer has a great year or 10, which would call into question our ability to develop young pitching. So far, based on data, the Twins have the better pitcher of the two.
  16. Oldgoat_MN
    So here’s the part that bothers me: Toward the end of Spring Training of 2011, Bill Smith said about the starting rotation that 4 of the 5 SP were determined and the last would go to Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker. Like it was some great showdown. No one anywhere thought that Slowey was going to beat out Baker for that position. It was insulting to the even slightly knowledgeable fan. In my book it spoke poorly of Bill Smith, treating us like children and trying to generate interest/excitement where there was none. Now we get this: Doogie: “There is zero doubt in anyone’s mind Tyler’s ability to make a major impact in the Twins rotation at some point down the road”. So is Doogie in disagreement with the FO? Are they schmoozing Tyler Jay? Are they just jacking us around? Is all the hype about our BP us just fooling ourselves? Duffey – alleged shutdown guy against LHB Boshers – best in 2016 by FIP, xFIP, 2nd in WHIP and SIERA O’Rourke – best WHIP on the team in 2016 Kintzler – healthy after a good year in 2016 Shaggy – high hopes for the young man (well, he’s 26) Pressly, Tonkin, Hildenberger, Burdi, Melotakis…. Yet we have to add Jay, Breslow, Haley, Belisle and Tepesch to the BP? Does our FO believe we have anything? Do we have anything?
  17. Oldgoat_MN
    1. I agree with Deduno Abides that if Haley weren't a Rule 5 pick he wouldn't even be in the conversation. Pitchers we had in AAA that had a lower WHIP than Haley in AAA last year include Sean Burnett, Jake Reed,Jose Berrios, Pat Light, Shaggy, Baxendale, Neil Ramirez, Nick Greenwood and Buddy Boshers. Keeping him would serve no other purpose other than to say, "we picked this guy so he must be good". 2. Vogelsong? You cannot be serious. The guy had a good MLB career. Congratulation! Goodbye. 3. I don't want to put words in Brock's mouth, so I'll just say I think Gibson and Santiago are practically the same pitcher. No telling which is going to be better this year. We will soon see, but I'm not going to cut one based on 1 good WAR year for one vs. better ERA+ years for the other. 4. That said, Santiago starting in the BP for Puerto Rico suggests Mejia only has to avoid getting lit up between now and April 3 to be in the starting rotation. Not sure who the other will be, but please, please please not Vogelsong. Even I'm tired of my whining now.
  18. Oldgoat_MN
    We have a pretty crowded bullpen. Hopefully he gets all the chance he deserves. Sometimes I read about the players and I'm glad I don't have to make these 'make it/not good enough' types of decisions.
  19. Oldgoat_MN
    As I said in my post, I wasn't really sure what he did in 2016. He had 2 strong years in a row in AAA. If he didn't get his break with someone then he probably isn't ever going to get it. I agree that Mauer, Vargas and Park are ahead of him. Not so sure about Palka.
  20. Oldgoat_MN
    I am a big fan of Romero. Possible #1 starter. Don't know if the 'stuff' Gonsalves has will play in MLB higher than a 4 or 5. Tyler Jay occurs as a long shot to hit his ceiling, but his ceiling is a 1 or 2. I'm starting to warm up to Nick Gordon. Fun list Cody. Thank you
  21. Oldgoat_MN
    Matt Hague in 2014 in AAA: .282/.371/.465 (.836) in 442 PA Matt Hague in 2015 in AAA: .338/.416/.468 (.884) in 596 PA He's had a total of 91 PA in MLB, most of which came in 2012. If we had a guy like that in AAA (we don’t) we’d all be screaming to have him get a shot at MLB. I’m not that adamant, as it’s not really clear what he did last year, but if he gets some at bats this year it’s likely not the end of the rebuild.
  22. Oldgoat_MN
    Really great to see Mejia have a good outing. Possibilities...
  23. Oldgoat_MN
    I have a great deal of respect for Bill James. I agree that Rod Carew should never have accumulated more at bats hitting 2nd or 3rd than 1st. Carew did so only because of old school thinking that did not take into account OBP or power (or lack thereof). In baseball you want high OBP guy batting early, but who anywhere would have had Ted Williams bat leadoff? The opportunity to generate RBI has to come into the mix at some point. All the factors have to come into play: OBP, power, speed. If Kennys Vargas has the highest OBP on the team I am still not going to bat him directly in front of Buxton. You are almost certainly giving up bases somewhere along the line if you do so. I also do not believe that if Buxton never again leads off he is a bust. Lineup construction is complex. The ‘perfect’ lineup for a team is debatable. I just don’t think you have one of your biggest power hitters batting first, insuring that they have at least one bat per game with no one on. Especially when they do not lead the team in OBP.
  24. Oldgoat_MN
    If Polanco is on first he has a 100+ foot head start on Buxton. I think he's fast enough to make that work. It's not like Kennys Vargas, who kept Buxton from a triple last year because he wasn't fast enough to score. Polanco has speed.
  25. Oldgoat_MN
    I think we are all rather counting on ESan to have a 'Santana-average' year. If he has a bad year things start to look even more bleak. We really need Gibson or Santiago to step up. I think we will see a lot of youth this year in and out of the starting rotation. Hopefully someone (or two, or more) takes the opportunity and compels the management to take them seriously. Because we seriously need starting pitching.
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