stringer bell

Two very different components to team defense. 1) Be fundamentally sound and make the plays you’re supposed to make. 2) Take hits, bases and runs away. Buxton made a couple of plays per week that belonged on highlight reels and other players have made very good plays on occasion. As far as turning outs into outs, the Twins are decent. Like other parts of this (so far) snake bitten season, the Twins seem to have saved their most glaring mistakes for the worst possible time. Late inning errors and fundamental mistakes are directly attributable to at least four close losses. Finally, one key defensive position was not broken down much in this discussion—catcher. Primary catcher Mitch Garver is at best adequate IMHO. He seems to have let an inordinate number of balls get by him and doesn’t throw very well. When healthy, Simmons, Buxton and Donaldson are pluses, Mitch Garver is not.

Unless Sami’s confidence is rebuilt by a 345 foot homer, I don’t think he’s out of the woods. However, something like this could really help the team. Is it possible that Columé has found something that can make him an effective reliever? I’m not convinced, but they don’t have many choices.

Yeah, I hope the pillars produce, but if the struggle goes on much longer it may be only so that their trade value can increase. Kepler, Polanco and Garver all have someone with high upside or proven value (Larnach/Kirilloff, Arraez and Jeffers respectively) who could replace them if they were traded. All three guys are under team control for multiple years and Garver is the oldest (30), so I think rather than just trading expiring contracts, the Twins could look at moving any one (or all three) of these guys.

I think Larnach and Kirilloff will both be outstanding hitters and soon. The only thing that really stinks is I'd like to see them flank Buxton instead of Cave or Kepler. The Kirilloff injury is worrisome. I hope he's able to come back at full strength soon, but wrist injuries are treacherous.

The three position players I most enjoy watching are Arraez, Buxton and Kirilloff. To have all three on the IL just shows what a trainwreck has occurred so far. I don't quite go so far in criticizing particularly Donaldson for lack of hustle. He goes down the line, but doesn't "bust it" like a majority of players. He probably has more justification for not sprinting hard because of the leg injuries he has suffered. It's not a good look especially if a ball is bobbled. Cave is probably the only guy I see sprint all-out to first on every ground ball. As far as beating the shift, I would like to see more lefty hitters put down bunts in appropriate situations. It doesn't have to be a precise bunt oftentimes, just past the pitcher and if it forces the third baseman in an closer to the line, then there is a real gap to shoot for in the infield. Trying to hit a grounder to the non-pull side would probably mess with most swings. A lot of hitters are shifted in the infield, but played close to straight away in the outfield, Buxton and Kepler being two examples. Finally, walking hitters. No one tries to walk hitters, but sometimes pitchers try to be too fine (I think of Kyle Gibson in this regard). To me, it is one thing to walk a guy after a long battle--every pitcher misses his spot once in a while--rather than a four-pitch walk with not one pitch being competitive. The difference between success and failure is so small and sometimes arbitrary. Right now it seems that everything close is going against the Twins. One would expect things to turn around, but waiting for a turnaround is brutal.

I'll echo what was posted earlier--with a bit of plate discipline, Astudillo could be a really good hitter. However, he swings at everything and the incredible contact skills are barely a footnote. No, he doesn't strike out but he hits bushels of weak popups and grounders, mostly on pitches outside the zone. I will give La Tortuga credit for being an acceptable fielder on the corners and wherever he plays, he is fundamentally sound and prepared. As others have said, he is versatile and doesn't need to play every day. That he has played as much as he has shows a problem. He is not the problem himself.

My first choice would be Trevor Larnach.

The Twins play their 30th game this afternoon and are currently 11-18. They've been beset by bad luck, bad play and have taken a beating with two rule changes (extra-inning runner on second, 7-inning games for doubleheaders). How do they get out of this funk? I'm sure many in the organization will preach patience and they may be right, but that isn't any fun. Here are some possibilities for change that might help the team: Role change. We've already seen one role change. At least temporarily Alexander Columé is not going to see high-leverage innings. Columé has been a huge disappointment and even when he has worked scoreless innings, he's been shaky. The problem is that taking Columé out of high leverage situations leaves the Twins with few good options, particularly when going 6 or more innings for a starter is a rarity. I think one pitching role change that should be made is to use Taylor Rogers in non-save high leverage situations as happened early in 2019 and sometimes use him for multiple innings. Rogers shouldn't be used in back-to-back days. Moving Alcala to high leverage situations seems to be gradually happening. If things continue to go bad, it makes sense to have him give a shot as a closer. Position players--it seems to me that both Polanco and Kepler should have their roles diminished from full-time regular to something different. Kepler can play a corner and center and Polanco has played short and second, maybe Max should be slotted as the fourth OF or at least platooned with Garlick. I think giving Polanco the role of three-position infielder wouldn't be a stretch. He could get some at-bats as a platoon partner for my choice of regular second baseman (Arraez) and left-handed at-bats in place of Simmons and when Donaldson takes a day off (or is injured). Promotions/demotions. Assuming that Alex Kirilloff is in the big leagues to stay, when healthy the Twins have one extra position player and someone will have to be sent to the minor leagues or released. Discussion has centered on Jake Cave. Several others could be sent down and that doesn't begin to discuss the pitching staff. Many pitchers'performances could merit their demotion. Trades. It is unlikely that anyone will make a significant trade this early in the year. However, the Twins would be a good candidate for a major trade nearer the trade deadline. They have some redundancy (left handed hitting corner outfielders) and holes that need patching (bullpen, perhaps catching) and many candidates to trade. They also have a lot of players who would be free agents after this season. I do wonder if someone who was considered a cornerstone (Polanco, Kepler, Sanó) could be traded. None of these guys have performed remotely well so far but an uptick could make them more marketable. I have to believe that the Twins will bring in new pitchers either in the bullpen or the rotation. What they have at this time in the bullpen just hasn't worked. Personally, I think the Twins will need to do a little bit of everything to turn the corner. I am a proponent of changing roles. I think Kepler and Polanco could be candidates to have limited roles. The Twins need to add at least one strong arm in the bullpen, most likely by trade and Trevor Larnach is reputed to be nearly as much a sure thing as a hitter as Alex Kirilloff, plus he is a better outfielder. There is too much talent for the club to continue to play sub.400 baseball, but I think they need to make changes immediately.

The story of yesterday's game was advancing baserunners. The Twins failed to cash in on a bases-loaded none-out scenario in the fourth and failed to plate runners with leadoff hits, including a leadoff double. Texas scored their three runs on a fielder's choice grounder, a wild pitch and a sacrifice fly. Tiny ray of hope is that Sanó got a hit and a walk, brighter ray of hope is that Garver went deep and had better at-bats. I'm mystified by the regression of young veterans Kepler and Polanco. I do think that Polanco could be a good fit as a three-position infielder (tenth starter) and while Arraez has done OK moving around the field, he might be better served playing regularly at second base, with days off against left handed pitching.

For my own mental health, I’m going to dial back my attention to this club. Nothing is going right and every decision seems to be the wrong one. When they come out if this, I more than check box scores.

Last year the Twins two most used bench players were Ehire Adrianza and Marwin Gonzalez. Both of these players are versatile and dependable glove men wherever they are put on defense. For the 2021 Twins, the versatile players are not defensive assets--Arraez, Astudillo, Garlick and Rooker are all bat-first players and when they get on the field, the ball seems to find them. So far, the results have been close to disastrous.

OK, a lot of guys who have shown to be capable or better major league players have not performed--Polanco, Garver, Kepler, Sanó, and to some degree Cave. 2019 was when all of those guys were really good and maybe it is time to recalibrate expectations. Is there a Plan B? If the Twins continue to disappoint, they might be a completely different team after the trading deadline. The organization seems to be all-in on going for the formula of building around the long ball--no matter what the situation, try to hit the ball over the fence--and we've seen failures to score runners at an alarming rate. Bullpens have ups and downs. I'm not overly confident in the Twins' pen, but I don't think it is bottom quadrant, either.

Two runs in four innings is pretty OK considering Thorpe has been at the alternate site since he was ruled to have a fourth option. I'm in favor of keeping Thorpe on the big league roster and sending Dobnak down for now.

With the COVID news, transactions will probably happen as a result of positive tests. Replacing Garlick with Kirilloff seems to make sense, although by the time they play again, Rooker may be ready to return from the injured list. I wonder if there is conversation of keeping Thorpe and sending down Dobnak, although perhaps both will be filling in if there is a positive test among the pitchers. 6-8 is disappointing, but no one in the Central has jumped way ahead. As far as makeup games go, with the long All-Star break and the game is in Denver, the Twins could do a makeup doubleheader on the Thursday after the AS game. Not ideal, but maybe as easy and fair as could be found.

Depending how Kirilloff is progressing, exchanging him for Cave makes sense. Jeffers has started slowly, but I don’t think either Telis or Astudillo are really capable of assuming the backup catcher role. Adding Braxton or Telis would necessitate a 40-man move.

Hindsight is always 20-20. Consider three less-than-great outcomes in the homestand. Shoemaker breezed through five innings allowing no runs and holding a six-run lead, but then gave up four runs without getting an out and the bullpen gave up the lead and the game. Dobnak breezed through two innings, but got nicked for back-to-back doubles in his third inning, allowing the winning run and finally Pineda was pulled after seven outstanding innings and the bullpen gave up the lead. Common thread? All three didn't work out. Is there a magic bullet (or 8-ball) that says when to pull a pitcher? I do know that Pineda hasn't gone over seven innings in years. If I'm going to criticize the manager, it is probably that he is too patient with veterans. A lot of guys aren't hitting their weight and a lot of pitchers (especially the bullpen) haven't been reliable and no major role changes have yet occurred. It is said that patience is a virtue, but sometimes it is maddening.

No matter the situation, Rocco has not trusted Dobnak to face a lineup three times. I have found that unusual. Given his new contract, the Twins must see a good future for him and it would be as a starter IMHO, but he seems to be a throwback to the pitch-to-contact sinkerballers of 15 years ago.

Dobnak is not a one-inning maximum effort reliever. I'm sure he'd be fine in the rotation and I believe he will be good in a multiple inning relief role as well. Much of his bad numbers come from the third inning of the blowout victory over the Tigers where he gave up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. I don't think Dobnak is ideal to be the guy to pitch in the new extra inning setup, as he was in the season opener. I fully expect that Dobnak will be in the rotation within a month, somebody will get hurt or be ineffective, or perhaps the Twins will go to a 6-man rotation.

I think a role switch when Donaldson returns make sense with Arraez the primary 2B and Polanco filling in. That doesn't mean that Arraez can't play a game here or there in left or third, but that he is the primary starter and Polanco is the tenth starter. Polanco has only driven about three balls hard that I've seen, his K and BB stats are not promising. I do expect he will come out of it some, but I do wonder if the first half of 2019 was an outlier.

We’re talking about ten games here. Small sample size-yadda, yadda, yadda. Akil Baddoo won’t hit 64 homers, Polanco, Sanó, and Garver will improve. The question is whether these guys (and Kepler) will approach their top seasons or whether they are league average or below. Maybe a role reversal between Arraez and Polanco is in order. As far as Jake Cave, he has been the beneficiary of increased play due to Donaldson’s injury and the spring training demotion of Alex Kirilloff. I really expect AK will be with the Twins before the cold snap (in the weather) is over. As for the bullpen, yeah it’s still early, but Colomé hasn’t been sharp and he is really key to the ‘pen. Duffey and Stashak seem to have lost velocity, which is also concerning. I think Rogers, Robles and Thielbar have been very good. I think the lack of innings from the starters might expose the bullpen too much. So far, the team is losing a lot of “50-50 battles”, that likely won’t continue. However Cruz, Buxton and Arraez won’t stay as hot—Sanó, the catchers and Polanco won’t stay as cold, but the offense looks more like 2020 than 2019.

Particularly heartening to see Buxton with hits on the right half of the field. He still isn’t going to hit many ground balls through the gaping hole between first and second. Personally I’d like to see him line a few into the right-center gap, just to see him run out a triple.