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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Cody Christie article today says that Kirilloff is taking live BP and feeling no pain. That is an improvement from a week ago when he was facing pitching machines and still had "discomfort". If he has no setbacks and can get ten days to a week of games in, I think he can make the club. I don't think the Twins really pushed him last year. He started out hurting and was on the IL in April and then when recalled, he raked until the wrist dogged him again. I'm convinced he can hit if healthy. I want Larnach on the team from the start as well. He has a higher ceiling than Kepler and Gordon and showed last year, before injury, that he can both hit and field. The word is he's playing tomorrow. I hope he rakes and forces his way on to the Opening Day roster. BTW, there are already three injury questions (beyond Trevor) that need to be answered (Kirilloff, Gordon, Miranda) and if any of them don't make it by Opening Day, there is a clear path for Larnach to make the team.
  2. stringer bell
    I think Farmer and Taylor are excellent pickups. Farmer kills left handed pitching and is a versatile three-position infielder. He probably isn't a full-time starter on a contender, but he's solid and a real asset as a short-side platoon option. Buxton's history and Celestino's struggles necessitate getting a capable center fielder. While I have my qualms about WAR, his 3.2 BWar would have been exceeded by only Buxton, Arraez and Correa on the 2022 Twins and he only played in three quarters of the Royals' games. I agree that having both Gallo and Kepler on the team seems unwise, but given all of the outfield injuries last year it might make sense to keep major leaguers rather than entrusting regular at bats to unproven players. Solano has had a good run as a hitter in his 30s. He's also versatile and hits righty giving the Twins another weapon against left handed starters.
  3. stringer bell
    I pretty much agree with the above comment, but do want to add a couple things--first of all, their most dynamic player has been dogged by injuries through his seven-year career and yet was signed to a nine-figure multi-year contract. The foundation of the Twins team is a guy who has averaged about 80 games per full season since he became a full-time regular (2017). Secondly, the Twins acquired Maeda and Paddack, who were known to have frayed elbow ligaments and got the COVID year and 21 starts out of Maeda, and five starts out of Paddack. They acquired Mahle after he had been on the IL with shoulder stiffness and got very little from him in 2022. These are all clearly injury gambles and only Maeda would be considered some semblance of winning the bet. They doubled down this offseason by signing Correa after two teams voided contract agreements due to his physical results. Almost every player has an injury history. The Twins have in recent years bet on players they've acquired and mostly lost. All of the players mentioned above are still with the team and if all of them and the two first-round draft picks who have been dogged by injuries (Larnach and Kirilloff), they will have indeed won their gamble this year. Actually, I'd say they will have won the bet if the position players are available for 120 or more games and the pitchers only are placed on the IL once on the season for less than a month.
  4. stringer bell
    While it is fun to predict the roster, the reality is that composition of the roster will change through the season. I’m pretty sure Polanco and Buxton will be on the roster and in the Opening Day lineup. I’m not so sure that Kirilloff will be ready. I think about three of the bullpen spots could be classified at TBD.
  5. stringer bell
    Well, I hope he doesn't lose the whole year with Tommy John surgery. Tough break for a guy who seems to have the skill set to really help the Twins.
  6. stringer bell
    After listening to Bonnes and Nick Nelson today, I feel like there is a bit more clarity in regard to the bullpen. There are four guys comprising the high-leverage (back end) of the bullpen--Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. They are locks to make the team and will be the guys to get most of the wins and saves. The second tier will be guys occasionally in high-leverage, but often in middle situations. Jorge Alcala, Emilio Pagan, Jovani Moran, Trevor Megill and Dennis Santana. They will sometimes be asked to get more than three outs. Someone else could also join this group and not all five will go north for Opening Day. Finally, Rocco would like to have a guy who is really a long reliever, perhaps nominally a starter. This was Josh Winder's role early in 2022, but eventually he joined the rotation. Cole Sands, perhaps Winder again or a host of non-roster pitchers could figure here. As the season progresses, there doubtless will be changes and adjustments. It would not be a surprise to see several guys using up their allotted number of optional assignments and a lot of names not shown here to get opportunities.
  7. stringer bell
    I think it's not really fair to imply that Jeffers is injury-prone. Last year's injury was a rather freak broken bone and he is a catcher. It appears Jeffers will get most of his plate appearances against left handers as long as Vazquez is healthy and it wouldn't surprise me that he thrives in that role.
  8. stringer bell
    I think it is not fair to call the players acquired "utility castoffs". Farmer got full-time regular at-bats last year, Taylor earned 3.2 BWar last season in over 400 PAs and Solano played regularly after missing more than the first two months of the season. Granted, these three played for poor teams and would be classified as in the bottom half of regulars at their positions. I think, as a group, they will be valuable bench players if not forced into full-time duty. If injuries force these guys into full-time duty they will be adequate fill-ins. This is much better than filling those gaps with Gilberto Celestino, Mark Contreras and Tim Beckham, to name a few. Just about every team is counting on pitchers who have injury issues. The Twins have five solid veterans as a prospective rotation and 4-5 young guys who wouldn't surprise most of us if they thrived in the big leagues if given a chance this year. Having 8-9 solid options makes sense in this era where pitchers routinely fail to pitch 160 innings in a season.
  9. stringer bell
    Lots of nuggets provided. Thank you! Really appreciate your observations about the bullpen. Is it too early to point out a dark horse to make the Opening Day roster? Is there anyone that has really caught your eye as a prospect?
  10. stringer bell
    I think the alternative is “blow it up”. The injuries of the last two years would cripple any team IMHO. If the Twins experience a similar volume of injuries to key players, there will be temptation to go another way, although the long-term contracts of Buxton and Correa would make those changes more difficult.
  11. stringer bell
    Last year the Twins got through Spring Training with minimal injuries. I do remember Dobnak going down with his finger problem, but little else. Once the season started, the injuries really hit, including Paddack for the entire year and Buxton with a knee injury that impacted him basically the entire year.
  12. stringer bell
    Forgot Balazovic. I see he's been optioned already today.
  13. stringer bell
    Just making mental notes about Twins' injuries and the respective player's prospects of playing on Opening Day. To my knowledge, three Twins position players haven't taken the field in an exhibition game--Kirilloff, Buxton and Polanco. Two pitchers have been delayed after suffering injuries early--Winder (before ST) and Henriquez. In addition, while he is able to hit, Miranda has been limited to DHing because of a sore shoulder. "New" position player injuries would now include Gordon (today--high ankle sprain), Larnach (lower body) and Celestino (thumb). Did I miss anyone? IMHO this is a rocky start on the injury front. The key to me is the three projected starters who haven't yet taken the field.
  14. stringer bell
    Well, Megill has an option. I really believe Celestino will be assigned to the 60-day IL for one spot. Rocco has directly said that he would like at least one multi-inning reliever (Rodriquez, Hoffman, Sánchez, de Leon, and perhaps Oliver Ortega could step in). Dennis Santana can’t be optioned, so if he doesn’t make the team, that will open a roster spot. Lots of balls in the air and decisions to be made. The only sure thing is that there will be a lot of changes in the course of the season.
  15. stringer bell
    Glad to hear that. I confess I didn’t see the velocity on every pitch, so I may well be wrong about his velocity.
  16. stringer bell
    Megill looked good yesterday, probably the only guy in competition for one of the last spots that has so far (I think Moran is a near-lock so I am not considering him). I hope someone(s) steps up and that Winder and Henriquez get healthy.
  17. stringer bell
    Agree. It looked like Alcala was throwing high 80s meatballs yesterday. I didn’t see a single pitch with velo above 90. It is early and he is coming back from surgery and missing virtually a whole season, but I’m not confident that he will help the club early.
  18. stringer bell
    With his R/L splits, Farmer should be starting against lefties all the time. Not as a good for him to fill in against right handers. He’ll get quite a few at-bats filling in anyway. I guess I’d prefer him at third and Miranda at first.
  19. stringer bell
    The best thing for the bullpen would be success from the current deep and relatively experienced rotation. Two things the Twins FO and field staff had to like about Pagan were his willingness to take the ball on consecutive days and ability to throw multiple innings. I hope that Pagan is infrequently used in high-leverage situations. The last two or three in the bullpen already look a bit shaky (I know it's early!). Alcala gave up several base runners, Megill got knocked around and both Winder and Henriquez are dealing with arm ailments.
  20. stringer bell
    The injuries to Larnach and Miranda are concerning, of course. I'm sure that in Spring Training, the Twins aren't going to take any chances with anyone. Any complaints about having competent veterans on board bring me back to last year when the not-ready Wallner plus Cave, Celestino and Contreras were playing regularly in the outfield. I'd much rather have major leaguers playing and if the prospects come through, they will get their chance. If Rocco can get the veterans at-bats where they have the best chance of success, they will be fine, but I doubt the club will suddenly believe they are foundations of the team. There is a jumble of young, ready or nearly-ready position players without clear places where they will play. It's up to the field staff and front office to handle this, but the time is in the future. Goodness, guys like Kirilloff and Larnach haven't established themselves and a bad season could change the opinion of Miranda and Gordon.
  21. stringer bell
    My thought was that the Dodgers might be interested in Gordon to fill Rojas’ utility role, with Rojas moving in as the primary SS.
  22. stringer bell
    As far as strategy for extra innings goes, I don't think a bunt is in order very often if you are on the road. First of all, playing for a one-run lead when the opponent will get a runner on second with none out really isn't a great percentage play. Secondly, there aren't many good-enough bunters to get that runner to third and quite often two strikes or an out will be given up without advancing the runner. Third, and probably most important, getting the runner to third with one out is far from a guarantee that he'll score. Strikeouts are at historic highs, infield flies seem to be up as well and I have to believe that it is far less than 50% of the time that when a runner on third base and one out the runner is scored without benefit of a hit.
  23. stringer bell
    I think with a larger sample size that the "ghost runner" rule would hurt the Twins because of the makeup of the team and the flaws therein. They were far below average the past two years at advancing runners with outs and hitting with runners in scoring position. They were noted as among the very worst base running teams and their team speed is quite a bit below league average so stealing a run to score a win was pretty unlikely to happen. When it comes to the pitching side, their candidates for pitching the extra innings were not high velocity and strikeout guys and mostly right handed, so the chance of advancing a runner on a pulled ground out would be a bit higher than average. That said, the rule is the same for everyone and really the key thing will be good hitting with runners on and a deep enough bullpen that the guy who goes out for the tenth or eleventh is as good a shot as the opponents for throwing a goose egg.
  24. stringer bell
    Minor league contracts don't bother me much at all. Santana, OTOH, bothers me some, in that he takes a spot on the 40-man roster and has no options. There will be plenty of transactions, but right now the current 40-man is tight and several players that are pretty desirable could be lost to get a relief pitcher or catcher on the active roster.
  25. stringer bell
    Definitions seem to be the debate here. Positionless would infer that there isn't a position where the player can thrive or least defend acceptably. Utility would be where the player can defend acceptably at multiple positions. Positional flexibility would infer that the player can defend acceptably at multiple positions. Clearly, the organization doesn't want to bring a bunch of positionless players (DHs) on board. It seems the headline is misleading. I'd be willing to predict that Austin Martin, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee all will play more games at other positions than shortstop, at least as long as they are playing for the Twins. I don't think that is a failure of the organization, but rather a plan of keeping players at the high end of the defensive spectrum as long as possible. The three guys I mentioned haven't played many games outside of shortstop and that is a concern because they all could be in the majors this year.
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