stringer bell

It's really time for Vázquez to start hitting. He had two hits in each of his first two starts, but he's been brutal for awhile now.

Thielbar and Maeda are in Buffalo with the Saints. Maeda started tonight and pitched two scoreless innings, walking one and striking out four. Thielbar allowed an infield hit with a strikeout in his scoreless inning.

I really don't want to rip on Sonny Gray, but Sonny is not one of the top innings pitched guys in baseball. His last five outings were 5, 5.1, 4 and 5 innings plus the 6 Sonny worked yesterday. If you want to stay in the game you don't walk a guy to put the tying run at the plate with no one out no matter how many pitches you've thrown. He had pitched well, but Gray doesn't overpower people and needs razor-sharp command to succeed. I think he would be more vulnerable than many facing an order for the third or fourth time. Sonny's a good pitcher and wants to get paid in 2024. He's not likely to agree to an extension before checking out free agency. He isn't Cy Young and he isn't 1991 vintage Jack Morris.

Aaron Hicks wasn't unemployed very long. He signed with the Orioles after they lost Cedric Mullins.

Time for the veterans--Correa, Buxton, Vázquez and MAT--to show their worth.

At the 1/3 point of the season, the Twins have scored 247 runs. That would project to 741 over the course of 162 games, despite some pretty disappointing seasons from the team's highest paid position players. Most of the time, players move toward their career averages, which would mean drastic improvement from Correa and Vázquez and some improvement from Buxton. Gallo is pretty much on his career track. Having Farmer, Wallner, Larnach, Castro and Julien as the next wave is so much better than Celestino, Gordon (yes, he did well last year), Palacios, Beckham and Contreras. Health and production from two former top prospects--Lewis and Kirilloff--could really change the offense. Finally a lament. Does anybody remember Austin Martin? The Twins could really use someone with his skill set at the top of the order and playing left and center field. Julien carried a dominant AFL to his first taste of the majors and I'd call it mixed results, but definitely some positives. If Martine could be a .350 OBP guy who could steal some bases and roam the OF, especially against lefties, maybe the Twins would have a few more wins this year.

I think coaches are mostly neutral, really having little effect on the production of players. There obviously are exceptions, but mostly it is up to the players to produce. Someone asked about a player who has exceeded their projections and I think one could mention Nick Gordon in 2022. However, he didn't show the ability to adjust to the adjustments that were made on him, maybe he's just not talented enough. Whoever "fixed" Yennier Canó in Baltimore might be a candidate for Coach of the Year. Last year, he was a mess for both the Twins and the Orioles and thus far he's been a godsend for the Orioles. Some of the stuff that has bedeviled the Twins so far this year is random IMHO. The bases loaded numbers can't continue like they are, at some point there have to be some mistakes hit and some bloopers fall in. The same for their record in close games, they're currently 4-10 in one-run games and that too sounds like a stat begging for regression to the mean. The team's offense is very reliant on the long ball and has too little small ball components, which include team speed and ability to make contact. Perhaps the additions of Kirilloff, Lewis and Polanco can improve those skills.

i don't think so. He had a few stolen bases in his rookie year, but it never felt like he was a game-changing threat on the bases. As far as in the field, his range in the outfield has never seemed that good and he hasn't stood out in the infield either. I was in the stands when he made a really good catch against the Padres this year in a game the Twins ended up winning. I can't recall many other Wow! plays from Gordon wherever he's been positioned. That isn't all about speed, but fast players tend to make more spectacular plays.

Here's the reality (to me). Kepler is most likely a proven mediocrity, but with excellent defense. Because of a combination of injuries, so-so production at the major league level and inconsistent playing time, none of Kirilloff, Wallner or Larnach is truly proven. Maybe i'm holding the bar too high, but after a supposedly sure-thing hitter (Miranda) has fizzled this year, can the Twins count on any of these young(ish) players to be a mainstay? Wallner played mostly when the season had slipped away last year and had a nice cameo last week. Kirlloff has been hounded by injuries and I think some fans and front office people want him to prove they hype before fully committing to him and Larnach has had good moments, bad moments and lot of injuries. The likelihood that one of these guys will be better than Kepler is pretty high. The chances that two will exceed what Max offers are more of an even money thing and having all three thrive is more of a wish than a future reality. Having Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner mashing from the left side added to Lewis (again a projection, not reality), Buxton, Correa and Polanco (or Julien) makes for quite a potent offense. It just hasn't been put together and probably never will. Speaking of "never will" or at least I'll believe it when I see it, Max Kepler hasn't played center field in over a year and Byron Buxton hasn't been out there yet this year. Until someone announces that either of these things are on the table, I guess we'll see MAT and Castro as the center field options.

A lot of focus has been on the position players with fairly short term injuries to Polanco, Kepler and Larnach opening the door along with the activation of Lewis. Now the flip side is presenting itself. It is possible that Polanco and Larnach will be available soon(ish) and the guys called up--Wallner (already sent down), Julien and ???? may end up in St. Paul. Donny Barrels gets occasional hits, scares the bejabbers out of me in the field and is a slow 35-year old on a one-year contract. I don't see how he is on the team if all the position players (save Gordon) are healthy. Thielbar and Maeda are both starting their rehabs in St. Paul. They can be there as long as a month, but I'm guessing that barring a setback Thielbar will be with the Twins by June 10th. Maeda is a square peg with only round holes available right now. Transition to BP, supplant Varland? Who knows and who knows if he'll be effective. I think it's anybody's guess about who is demoted/DFA'd when Thielbar and Maeda are ready and probably it will be decided by injuries. The two worst bullpen arms in May have been Jax and López and they were counted on as high leverage setup guys when the season started. Jose De León has looked good and can't be optioned. Sands has done his job, but has only worked in the lowest of leverage situations and Pagán has two memorable meltdowns mixed in with better than decent showing around them. Much like what happened to Bailey Ober and Matt Wallner, Louie Varland might be the guy to go despite being far from a problem.

The nature of his game (and Buxton's too) is peaks and valleys. He went quite a while between home runs, then connected for a few and now again hasn't hit one for some time. Joey has kept his BA above .200 and his OBP in the acceptable range, but without the long balls he is a net liability. Gallo has been fine at first base, but I still think AK is a better first baseman mostly because of the inherent advantages that left handers have there. Also, while it was fun to see a 6'5" 260 lb. lead off hitter, it makes more sense to bat him down in the order. I'd pick Julien (while he's playing), Kirilloff or Lewis before Gallo.

Nick Gordon is on the 60-day IL so I believe Castro has at least six weeks to make a place on the active roster his own. As a six-position switch hitter with base stealing speed, he checks a lot of boxes. I think the hitting will always be a test for him and he's a better corner defender than up the middle. I think Castro is a stopgap center fielder and with Buxton at DH, it would be nice if he were better out there. If he was, he probably wouldn't have had to sign a minor league contract this winter. Edit to add: Today, according to BBRef, Castro is the #1 position player on the Twins in WAR (1.1).

I believe Buxton and Correa are the Twins only qualifiers (3.1 PA per game) so any category that requires plate appearances would eliminate most of the team and Buxton and (particularly) Correa are off the less than stellar starts. Rather than look at individuals, I think the better way is to look at team stats. The Twins stand 14th in runs scored in MLB, so pretty close to the middle. They are highest in strikeouts, in the top 10 in homers (7) and have a middling OPS (19), Batting average is 24th. Offensively, there is a lot of room for improvement. Add in Polanco (who should be back next week) (.802 OPS), Kirilloff (.907 OPS) and Lewis (one game so far) and maybe the offense isn't so bad. The catcher rotation seems to be shifting towards Jeffers (.834 OPS), also an offensive improvement. The pitching, especially the rotation, has been outstanding. It would figure that there is some regression (Ryan and Gray are good, are they that good?) but the bottom of the rotation is relatively solid and there seem to be rays of hope in the bullpen. Some team pitching numbers: 2nd in ERA, 1st in strikeouts, 1st in OppBA, 1st in WHIP, 10th in walks, tied for 3rd in Quality Starts, tied for 3rd in HRs allowed (+24 HR differential). Last I checked, the starters had logged the most innings in MLB. We are at 1/3 of the season. There have been some glaring flaws in the Twins so far, but they are two games up in the standings and reinforcements since Opening Day have kept the team going. Some adjustments are due, some are already here. I'm more enthusiastic about this team than I was when they were 4-0.

Thanks, that what I meant!

I won’t quote the whole comment on the BP, but I will say that one or two bad outings can change numbers quickly. Both Jax and López have struggled, Jax for longer, López deeper and we’ve seen Stewart and Moran put in spots that López and Jax had assumed earlier. Everybody will have to get crucial outs, but leaving the job to guys who are struggling is a poor usage of talent.

Pretty certainly Julien would be optioned to make room for Polanco. I think we’ll know more about Maeda during and after his rehab. It isn’t apples to apples, but Varland’s numbers are better than Maeda’s.

Garlick was optioned to St. Paul.

Kepler has an okay OPS so far this year, fueled by both an uptick in power and a fair amount of walks. He still makes a lot of outs and his upside must now be mid-.200s batting average and an above average OPS+. There has to come a point where a change of role occurs. I know some others have said that Max shouldn't be guaranteed a spot in the lineup. OTOH, Larnach and Wallner (or Kirilloff for that matter) haven't proven they will be better and Kepler is regarded as a plus defender.I suppose the manager makes the call to change a role and has the most information about when to make that move. Wallner did very well in a very small sample. His numbers at St. Paul were good, but not really enough to force himself to the big club. They'll also have Larnach, probably in a week or two. Kirilloff, Gallo, Kepler, Larnach, Kepler and Larnach for three spots is too many. I also believe their best first baseman is playing left field, which is another case of deferring to veterans.

The Twins have used their running game much more in May than in April. They have Willi Castro as their leading base stealer with most of their stolen bases coming from three players--Castro, Byron Buxton and Michael A Taylor--and they've had pretty good success. I have noted that the team isn't set up for lots of stolen bases and I still don't think it is. However, with the increased use of Castro and Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien also now on the roster they have two more players who may be counted on to swipe some bases. Lewis hasn't played enough (obviously) to have a measured, but he is reputed to have far above average speed. Here is a listing of Twins' sprint speed according to mlb.com, listing is full speed run either in the field or on the bases: #22 Buxton 29.3 ft/sec #53 Castro 28.6 #59 Taylor 28.5 #107 Julien 28.1 #180 Kepler 27.5 #185 Polanco 27.5 #188 Kirilloff 27.5 #197 Gordon 27.4 #231 Correa 27.0 #235 Larnach 27.0 #266 Gallo 26.7 #285 Farmer 26,5 #308 Miranda 26.3 #328 Jeffers 26.1 #369 Solano 25.5 #402 Vázquez 24.7 27.0 is the average measured speed for all of MLB. 426 players were measured, so Buck, Castro, Taylor and Julien would be in the top quadrant. Of course, there is a lot more to stealing bases than raw speed, but having good speed should make those four plus Lewis a threat.

Yes, and I’m confident he won’t be available tomorrow. Pitch Duran for the seventh and eighth and who are you confident to close it out? The bullpen has been bad for a few weeks and until some people get it going again or someone gets picked up, they have serious problems holding a small lead.

Royce and Ryan may have given them the spark they desperately need. Huge victory today. Lewis with the oppo homer and clutch game-tying single and Jeffers with an absolute missile for the ultimate game-winning homer.

Gary Sánchez claimed by the Padres.

Change it to a double just because Gallo redeemed himself on the DP scoop.

Cheap double.

Buxton and Castro (and now maybe Lewis) are the only ones who could score from second on that single.