stringer bell

Mostly agree with this take. Throughout last season, we saw a succession of lineups against left handed pitching which featured the likes of Castro, Kepler or Wallner with pretty dismal results from the switch hitter or LH hitter. This problem would be minimized by a good -hitting RH hitter who crushes lefties. Next to adding to the rotation, I see this as the Twins’ biggest need. If Polanco’s money can help solve the two biggest needs, I’m on board for a Polanco trade.

I think the Twins moves this winter will tell us whether the team agrees with you. If they keep Polanco and Julien, it is saying they aren't counting on Lee this year. If Jorge is dealt, I think we can interpret that there is enough quality infield bats and that would include Mr. Lee. My opinion is that he needs more than a month of AAA. He was far from dominating, but he has the skills and the makeup to continue his fast rise.

mlbtraderumors.com has their annual look at possible non-tenders around the majors prior to the deadline for tendering contracts. As always, there is an interesting mix of names, many anonymous types and some overpriced players that the column speculates might not be offered a contract prior to arbitration. In looking over the names, I see a couple who could help the Twins IMHO. Outfielder Ramon Laureano is thought to be a candidate for non-tender by the Guards, Ramón Urías, who won a Gold Glove for the Orioles in 2022, is listed, as is Trent Grisham, a solid defensive OF with lots of experience in center. Several relief pitchers are listed. A number of ex-Twins are also thought to be in jeopardy--Jake Cave, JT Chargios, Derek Law, John Curtiss, and Michael Tonkin--as well as current Twins Nick Gordon, Jorge Alcalá and Kyle Farmer. Here is the link to the article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/2023-non-tender-candidates.html Are there players listed who the Twins should scoop up? Remember, Willi Castro was a non-tender last year.

Lee has the pedigree of possible superstar, perhaps a Chipper Jones-type player. I don't think anyone has predicted as much for Julien, but he a rookie season on the books where he hit and improved his defense. I'm guessing Lee has more value to other teams and will probably develop into the better major leaguer. Performance and injuries seem to solve logjams. It is probably wise for the Twins to see how things play out, rather than discarding a young player who could develop into an All-Star (all of Lewis, Julien and Lee). Lee will almost certainly begin the season back at St. Paul and probably needs the time in Triple A.

Several infielders to comment on and they all intersect in offseason transactions. Here's my take: Polanco--I have called him an "old 30" for a while. He's been able to adjust and keep his batting stats level by changing the type of hitter he is. Some guys (like Brian Dozier) fall off a cliff and I fear that for Jorge. His fielding has diminished notably and I certainly don't want him to be a utility type, since the only position he now plays acceptably (IMHO) is second base. While he has been a fine player for the Twins, the time to trade him is yesterday, with today being the second choice. Farmer--Much like Polanco, I see the window closing on Farmer as a productive player. He's older and he's never been fast, but I suspect his range will limit him as a defender everywhere, but particularly at shortstop. Farmer continues to really hit left handed pitching well, but lefties comprise only 25% to 33% of at bats for any team. If the Twins can find a way to keep Farmer, that is fine, but other more athletic options are on the horizon. I am in favor of trying to trade Farmer, although it is doubtful the Twins would get much in return. Lee--I've heard Gleeman and the Geek discuss Lee at length and they cite sources saying that Lee profiles well as a third baseman, with Royce Lewis the better fit at second base. This complicates things a bit. As mentioned above, Lee won't come up as a utility guy and I sincerely doubt the club would ask him to play multiple positions upon his promotion to the majors. Lewis is going to play. In 58 games this year, he was the best position player on the Twins by quite a large margin. Having Julien already in the majors and proving himself to be a solid lead off guy and an improving second baseman makes a logjam a bit more concerning. One way or the other, I believe Lee will be in the major leagues sometime in 2024, but probably not on Opening Day. Willi Castro looked more than comfortable in the infield in 2023. Depending on what happens with the rest of the roster, Willi could be called on to be more of an infielder in 2024, including backing up Correa at shortstop. A fly in the ointment for Castro is that he was a considerably better hitter from the left side last year and there would seem to be a slot as a platoon second baseman if he hit well right handed. One other right handed option at second would be Austin Martin, who could double as a right handed hitting outfielder. All last season, the Twins lacked a right handed hitting outfielder who was productive against left handers. Martin might be able to fill that hole, but more as an on-base machine rather than crushing lefties with extra base hits.

Well done Mr. Bremer. I hope the next person does well so he won't be missed too much.

I think it is important to remember both Woods Richardson's relative youth (played all last year at age 22) and the offensive environment that was the International League last year, particularly St. Paul. It is possible that SWR might need to tweak his mechanics a bit to get more velocity and movement, but there's still a decent chance that he will develop into a good or better than good starting pitcher. If that doesn't come to pass, a move to the bullpen might be the next move. IMHO there's still a lot of hope for Woods Richardson and it is far too early to give up or move on from him.

I don’t think Castro will ever develop the power that Escobar did. On the other hand, he can play in the middle of the diamond and in the outfield and also steal bases.

He progressed from replacement player to solid regular according to WAR. I think some regression would be expected. Specifically on defense, Castro has all the tools to be a good defender—good speed, decent hands and a strong arm. He seemed to put it all together this season. I do agree that defensive stats are quirky, but if the skills are there, the results should be too (in time). The base running was stunning in that with all of Willi’s aggressiveness, he made very few outs on the bases. Perhaps next year there will be regression there. More perfect throws and quick tags could happen and the base running numbers wouldn’t look so gaudy.

Willi’s hitting might be in question. Also he had pretty severe platoon splits (only a .636 OPS as a RH hitter). Next year, he might play more in the infield depending on how the roster is constructed.

Willi Castro was non-tendered by the Tigers after three-plus seasons. Willi was coming off two unimpressive seasons after a good, but short, rookie year (the 60-game "COVID year"). Those of us that saw Willi play this year wonder how the Tigers could let this guy go. Well, we saw an improved version of Willi Castro. Hitting: Castro put up two mediocre seasons in 2021 and 2022, posting OPS of .624 and .651 respectively. This season Castro had an OPS of .750 (an OPS+ of 106). Willi improved in most deep stats, walking more, increasing his hard-hit rate and restoring a decent BABIP. Castro increased his OBP and slugging and was great (.905 OPS) in Late and Close games. Fielding: As a Tiger, Castro was an above-average fielder only in left field. Willi was again good in left, he also played a solid third base and was acceptable in center. Willi played much less in the middle infield and right field. Castro made only two errors in the entire season and none in the infield. He hadn't played much at third base, but this year played third in 41 games, with positive defensive numbers and no errors. Willi made his share of highlight reel plays and more importantly made the plays he should have made. Base Running: This was probably the biggest area of improvement for Castro. He stole 33 bases, while getting caught only five times. He was aggressive on the bases, but didn't make outs on the bases. Willi mastered scoring on the safety squeeze and scoring on the delayed double steal. BBRef gave Castro credit for four runs gained from base running, whereas he had never recorded more than +1 run in a previous season. Again using BBRef numbers, Castro was +3 from batting, +4 from base running and +5 from defense. These numbers are all far above what Castro has been able to produce since a .448 BABIP fueled rookie year resulted in plus numbers from hitting. Willi Castro was markedly better in about all aspects of the game resulting in a 2.7 WAR in 124 games at age 26. Can the Twins get as good a season in 2024?

You might be right, but a fielding percentage based on 12 games doesn't prove anything. Minor league fields and mistakes by others could account for the errors. Does Martin have the range? Can he make the throws? What kind of jumps does he get on fly balls? Those are the real questions for Martin.

I don't like Polanco in any type of utility role. He is adequate only at one position (2B) and was flat-out terrible at third base. I do like Austin Martin as a utility player/alternate center fielder. I don't know if he can be a competent center fielder, but he has skills that most of the Twins position players lack. He is a righty bat and the Twins are short of productive outfielders who hit right handed. He could also get at-bats as a RH hitting second baseman. Whether he starts the season with the Twins has a lot to do with Farmer and Solano returning. Both Lee and Severino are long shots to go north for Opening Day. Lee needs a bit more time in St. Paul. He won't be on the 40-man roster, so he has to force his way, but I think he will eventually. Severino could have a path as a backup at the corners, but I think the Twins would prioritize Jose Miranda before turning to Severino, who also probably needs more time in AAA.

Woods Richardson pitched much better the last third or so of the season IIRC. Also, run scoring was insanely high in AAA this year, so his numbers aren't as poor as they look. It is important to point out that he turned 23 after the Triple A season was over and is the second-youngest player to appear for the Twins. Yes, he may have to redo some of his delivery to get more juice in the fastball and more movement on his pitches, but I think there's something pretty good there. Prielipp needs a healthy season to restore his status. Salas needs to adjust to higher level pitching. I'm not ready to give up on any of the "fall off three", but 2024 becomes a very significant year for all three.

Speed isn't the be-all and end-all. Acuna led the majors in steals and his sprint speed is good, but not elite. Julien has been measured at slightly above average in sprint speed, but apparently displayed the knack to steal bases in the minors. For the Twins, I believe he was limited most of the season by leg miseries that pretty much ruled him out from trying to steal. I was a bit disappointed in Julien's base running beyond the lack of stolen bases. He seldom took the extra base and was picked off or made outs on the bases an inordinate number of times (IMHO).

Discussing the relative merits of several players since the Twins were eliminated from postseason, I took a look at their 40-man roster and the ages of the players. There is a significant number of Twins on the 40-man roster born in 1997. Ten, all told, among them current hot topics of Alex Kirilloff and Louie Varland. 10 of 34 on the roster were born in the same year. It would seem these 25 and 26-year-olds will have a lot to say about the Twins' immediate future. Looking at the group, there are five pitchers (Canterino, Headrick, Moran, Sands and Varland) and five position players (Castro, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner). The most experienced player is Castro, with over four years of big-league experience. The least experienced is Canterino, who has yet to throw his first major league pitch. All but Castro are homegrown--drafted and developed by the Twins. I don't know if there is analysis when players make their biggest improvement. I've often heard that 27-30 are the peak years for MLB players. This large group of players should be due to step up as soon as 2024. The other thing that occurred to me is some guys are still prospects or not established, while others seem to have been around for quite a while (Kirilloff, Moran and Larnach) and are approaching "make or break" time. Some of that might have to do with how long the respective players have been in the organization. Kirilloff, for example, was signed out of high school and was in the minors at 18. Most of the other guys were signed out of college.

Thanks for the learned analysis. I'm glad to hear that he should be back in time for the 2024 season.

I think Varland got himself a ticket to the Opening Day roster with his relief appearances at the end of the season. If he doesn't make the rotation, he will start the season in the bullpen. When a vacancy arises, the Twins might turn to him, but stretch him out gradually from his multi-inning reliever role to full-fledged starter.

Does this mean that Kirilloff is projected to be ready to go by Opening Day? I’d love to see him have a full healthy season and see what he produces.

As with Kyle Farmer, it isn't what he did in 2023, it will be what is projected in 2024. At 36, I wouldn't be too interested in Solano. He's slow, he's short and he isn't a good defender. If the Twins want to get younger and more athletic, replacing Donnie Barrels with a younger player is a way to start. I believe the job will eventually belong to Jose Miranda.

I still have hope that AK becomes an All-Star, but each injury gives me more reason to doubt that he'll ever reach his potential. I wonder if the shoulder is the reason he had most of his power to the opposite field while he didn't sting the ball as often to the pull side.

Common that teams don't announce DFAs when trying to outright the player. I thought Ortega had a chance to be a good bullpen arm both in '23 and '24. We shall see what the Astros get out of him.

What Twins outfielder hits left handed pitching? Hicks is essentially the same age as MAT, by the way. Hicks had a .970 OPS vs. LH pitching last year and has a career .758 OPS vs. lefties. Byron Buxton’s OPS against left handers last year was .627.

Sounds like good news for Kirilloff. Less invasive procedures would indicate the injury wasn't as serious and that recovery won't take as long (I guess). If any medical professionals want to weigh in, it would be appreciated. Here is the item from mlbtraderumors.com The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.

I am counting 42 players. Subtracting soon-to-be free agents Gray, Keuchel, Maeda, Mahle, Pagán, Solano, Gallo and Taylor, the total is now 34. Is that right?