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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
  2. ashbury
    I just took a look in TD's Offseason Handbook and couldn't find even a mention of Addison Reed. Oopsie?
  3. ashbury
    The TD article on this subject is up, if you prefer to discuss there. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28380-article-rosenthal-twins-agree-to-deal-with-addison-reed
  4. ashbury
    Fixed.
  5. ashbury
    Uffda! Deciding about Buxton based on two players, the older of whom just turned 19, panning out as hoped? As I said, you and I would take different routes, and in the end that's OK. I don't believe in even state-of-the-art forecasting skills quite strongly enough where extreme youngsters are concerned, apparently. I'd ink Buxton, if he's willing, and deal with the too-many-up-the-middle-stars problem later.
  6. ashbury
    How does a bigger-and-stronger Gordon impact his ability to remain at SS, do you suppose?
  7. ashbury
    The Gallup poll cited here measures something, but probably not anything relevant to baseball's survival. Football is a once-a-week spectacle during its season, baseball is an everyday heartbeat during its. The troubled Tampa Bay Rays franchise attracted more home attendance in 2017 than did the NFL-leading Cowboys. You can use that as an alternative measure of how the sports touch people's lives. NFL football is priced out of the reach of most families even moreso than baseball, and no one is predicting the sport's imminent doom. College football is not as far out of sight financially, but again many minor league baseball teams have season attendance figures on a par with top college football. Moreover, football would have trouble selling out stadiums if games were played every day - in part because the rules of football would have to be drastically changed to enable that kind of frequency, thus decreasing the level of spectacle to that of, say, soccer (or maybe less, since futbol players don't play every day either). Baseball can coexist, as apples do with oranges. I don't suggest complacency, particularly at the college and high school levels, but high major league ticket prices are a sign of robustness, not doom. At least in the major markets, fans are waving fistfuls of dollars outbidding each other for tickets - cue the other Philip J Fry meme.
  8. ashbury
    You agree with increasing the number of avowed Socialists who immigrate to this country? Because I'm sure that is what the President meant when he indicated a preference for Norwegian folks.
  9. ashbury
    What would that be? Gumption? ☺
  10. ashbury
    As long as we are putting the jinx on things, I would like to take credit for the nice 3-game winning streak with my awesome doom-and-gloom anti-jinx of a few days ago.
  11. ashbury
    1) Your take on Royce Lewis, while hardly crackpot, is a thread-the-needle combination of pessimism (over his glove at SS) and optimism (his glove in CF plus his bat) and exact timing. I wouldn't personally base contract decisions on someone two years away - we've seen the damage of decisions made under the assumption that guys like Aaron Hicks will arrive exactly on time as though riding the morning light rail into Target Field. 2) That is a more favorable view of Buxton than I recall seeing from you, and I am content to close by accepting your view of both players, and to agree to disagree on how you and I would both implement contract decisions based on that view.. I can think of holes to poke in my own 2017 season argument that you were too polite to mention, and I could work up a rebuttal to yours, to little value to anyone.
  12. ashbury
    Small Sample Size, sliced-and-diced stats, yadda yadda yadda, but... Didn't the team make a post-season push, sans Sano? His game log on b-r.com shows the team went 58-56 with him, marginally better at 27-21 without. Whereas with Buxton in the lineup, even with the horrific start at the plate, they went 77-63 with him, and a putrid 8-14 when he was out. Looks like the Twins managed to find players to fill in for Sano, while they struggled to find a way to replace Buxton. The data, insufficient though it may be, points in the other direction you suggest. Is Granite an obvious replacement for Buxton? Hardly. Who else we got knocking on the door?
  13. ashbury
    Perhaps a Billy Hamilton who somehow forgot his skills and played a below-average LF instead of above-average CF.
  14. ashbury

    Tattoos

    ashbury replied to Doomtints's topic in The Sports Bar

    So, something more along the lines Doom laid out, for your viewing delectation?
  15. ashbury

    Tattoos

    ashbury replied to Doomtints's topic in The Sports Bar

    Basically, "dad joke" tattoos for you, then. http://www.collegehumor.com/images/download.jpghttp://www.collegehumor.com/images/download.jpghttp://0.media.collegehumor.cvcdn.com/60/42/dd3f3e00701ae65da59b79ee82122abc.jpg http://www.collegehumor.com/post/7040030/12-joke-tattoos-that-were-totally-worth-it
  16. ashbury
    Watching him in BP is also fun. He devotes some time to the long ball, and has an obvious good time about it. I don't forecast him breaking the 20-HR mark every year, but he's a dangerous little hitter who will try to punish certain pitches in certain situations.
  17. ashbury
    The price of perfect information is quite high in a free market. This not being exactly a free market... the price is still quite high. The larger entity, namely the team, is always better placed to take on the risk, since they can spread it out over multiple players contracts. The player has only one life to live. If the team believes in its forecasts for their various players (or, more importantly, the various forecasts contain assumptions about risk), then they can save a lot of money that can be put to other uses. If they wait until the forecasts come true, there is not much scope for them to offer the trade-off of risk relief to the player for salary relief to the team.
  18. ashbury
    Blame the punitive system MLB has in place toward teams signing 16-year olds. You have to add the player to the 40-man so young. And the 40-man is your reservoir of replacements during a season, so Polanco was used the way he was because of the constraints on the team. Don't hate the player team, hate the game.
  19. ashbury
    I'd suggest "death by a thousand cuts" as a useful metaphor - if it were just one guy shouting words one time, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Also, when someone experiences harm, it's surely infuriating to be told it's not "true" enough. Remember the senate candidate not long ago who came to grief when he tried to parse exactly what kind of rape was "legitimate"? Bottom line, empathy is a good trait to have. PS, please don't shout via ALL CAPS.
  20. ashbury
    $150K below TD's forecast in the Offseason Handbook. Where shall we invest the windfall?
  21. ashbury
    Sign him for two more years at something around or above $10M/per. Sometimes events force a team's hand. Public relations can't be ignored.
  22. ashbury
    You jonesing for a rumor? I heard that it's up to 44 now.
  23. ashbury
    Aaron was exceptional too. Aaron's power and stolen base trend for his career are both unlike very many other players. Plus we don't know Trout's trajectory yet. So I don't know how the comparison will go as time moves forward. It's just that Trout leaped to mind.
  24. ashbury
    Through age 25, Hank Aaron had 179 HR and 20 SB. Go refresh your memory and look up Mike Trout.
  25. ashbury
    MIT hosts one next month. http://www.sloansportsconference.com/ Boston commuter rail would take me right there. Unfortunately, all the bargain-priced $600 tickets are sold out, and the $850 tier is too rich for my blood. (There's also a $2500 VIP tier.) If I had a fake student-ID I could get in for $250 except those are sold out too. Well-known sports analyst Barack Obama is slated to speak. What a world.
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