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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Glancing only at the first round, the 2022 draft is shaping up as one of the weaker crops recently. Both the 2023 and 2024 drafts have a greater number of players already contributing at least 0.5 WAR cumulative career-wise than 2022. 2021 and especially 2020 are already far stronger too - maybe the 1 and 2 additional years accounts for that, but I don't think so. A deeper analysis would require more effort than I care to spend, but it might be appropriate to grade on the curve when looking at what the Twins accomplished so far with that draft.
  2. ashbury
    Boston's problems stem from their offense - second fewest runs scored in the AL. Their team ERA is pretty good, and their bullpen in particular is second in the AL. Scraps yes, but their scraps might be better than what's on the Twins' table.
  3. ashbury
    This gentleman sees what you did there.
  4. ashbury
    I would have made the same choice. And missed out on a legitimate HoF career.
  5. ashbury
    He is?
  6. ashbury
    Blast From the Past:
  7. ashbury
    I like drafting catchers in the early rounds (just, not high first-round unless you feel certain you are getting a near-HOFer). With the strong arm, I was thinking RF more than 1B, if the concerns about being behind the plate prove correct. Who wouldn't love to lock up the next Matt Wallner, after all? As with all players whose defense up-the-middle is suspect, it will come down to the bat, and in particular the hit tool to unlock the power.
  8. ashbury
    Looks like a strategy consistent with the acquisition of Tommy Vance from Toronto: pick a team with a good bullpen this year, scan for a guy with a very low leverage index (meaning he's not often in a close game), get him cheaply and then see if there's a diamond in the rough that the other team just never had the opportunity to make the best use of due to better options already. Bottom feeding is not my preference, but given that the Twins painted themselves into a corner with their bullpen moves (or lack of them) the past 12 months, and apparently don't want to invest prospect capital in upgrades at the bottom of the bullpen, this isn't a crazy approach. Long way to the trade deadline, which may inform us how these little moves fit into some Go-Big-Or-Go-Home narrative. Or maybe, this will be the blueprint for all of July.
  9. ashbury
    It's all well and good that the Twins lead the AL in runs - but did you know they also lead the league in RBIs?
  10. ashbury
    LFG Kody!
  11. ashbury
    It's Jeffers Time!
  12. ashbury
    Let's have this double count for something!
  13. ashbury
    It's hard, partly because the more you slice'n'dice, the smaller and less reliable the sample size becomes. But you might be interested in the "Clutch" splits that baseball-reference.com provides. There's a lot to unpack and I'll just point to the "Tie Game" split, where our Twins lead the entire majors in OPS in that important category where runs are definitely needed, while in the "Margin >4" situation the Twins are smack dab in the middle (suggesting they don't especially pad their totals when it's meaningless). Click the link and have fun.
  14. ashbury
    An awful lot of doubles for such a small harvest of runs so far.
  15. ashbury
    "Leave Peter alone."
  16. ashbury
    We have 3 catchers on the active roster and none of them can be sent to AAA, and this is your hawt taek of the moment?
  17. ashbury
    From mlb.com's page for the player, so I guess April 17 is the starting date. 17+60 minus 30 for April and 31 for May leaves, um, July 16 he "could" return. Still not sure why they didn't use Banda for the 60-day since his surgery means he's absolutely done.
  18. ashbury
    Wait. You're saying his present .405 BABIP with the Twins won't be sustainable? 😁
  19. ashbury
    Most of the secondary aspects favor having Bradley. But it still comes down to performance. If Bradley were scuffling badly, I wouldn't care that the team had control for so many more years. But since both Jax and Bradley are performing as well as either team probably hoped, it comes down to this: Tampa surely believed Bradley was unrepairable, or else they would not even have considered this trade. The Twins on the other hand deserve praise for the strength of their convictions.
  20. ashbury
    Go to the Trademark Office and protect your IP rights, before the TD staff grabs it to use as their site motto.
  21. ashbury
    Yeah, any critiques of this trade amount to a broader critique of this FO's roster construction after last year's sell-off. Your list of Jays is well-taken, and also galling. 😁
  22. ashbury
    Go Big or Go Home! This is just the opening salvo, I'm sure!
  23. ashbury
    That's a fair point. As I said, the leverage index doesn't speak to what the pitcher did once he's in the game. But it's notable that we didn't acquire any of those "better options", probably because they weren't available. The ceiling for what this deal does for making a pennant push is very low.
  24. ashbury
    b-r.com has a "leverage index" that looks at the game situation when a pitcher enters the game, saying nothing about his results once on the mound. On the Twins, for example, Rogers (1.47), Gomez (1.46), Morris (1.36) and Banda (1.35) lead the staff in highest leverage, which sort of confirms the eye test as to when they get brought in, and also perhaps attests to Shelton's strategy to spread the opportunities around instead of having a rigid setup-closer pecking order. By contrast, Laweryson has a very low 0;70 leverage index, again conforming to what you might expect for a pitcher of his current caliber. On the Jays this year, it's hardly surprising that Louis Varland's usage results in a very high 1.90 leverage index. Tommy Nance? 0.53. John Schneider apparently has had very low confidence in Nance. Take it for what it's worth. Maybe Shelton/Hawkins/Maki will work some magic with him and get good performance, when the game is on the line, that Schneider didn't feel was possible.
  25. ashbury
    Sticking my neck out to guess they put Banda on the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster, and send Adams to AAA to open a spot on the major league roster.
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