ashbury

The former seems like the "bet on yourself" play. But when I look at this pitcher's age-29 similarity scores on b-r.com, which someone else reminded me of in a different post, I'd say grab the guaranteed extra $30M. From the team's perspective, the "bet on yourself" contract looks more like "we'll pay for just the tasty center core from the watermelon, thank you very much." Three years is a long time when you're a pitcher entering your thirties.

Is there any concern with Gray's health? I just looked up the reason for his being on the 60-day IL to end the season, and his foot fracture wasn't due to an event like a batted ball, but a recurrence of a stress fracture that also bothered him in 2017. Surgery was being considered - did that happen? Is there something brittle about him that should give pause, to investing a lot to acquire him?

Then he says no, and signs for the highest bid, which will surely be better than that. Why even waste his agent's time?

I think the gauntlet has been thrown down. Only Chief can top that one. Chief, where are you, in our hour of need?

Thought that's what I was saying...

I think this acceptance lends credence that TD's "crowdsourced" estimate for a 3 year contract (at $42M?) might have been closer than some of the higher estimates out there. When the QO gives you almost half of what you'd get for 3 years, bet on yourself and take it, and try again the next year. (Doesn't rule out negotiating an extension, for that matter.) Conversely it was a good QO for the team to offer, but close.

Oof, I don't want to turn this into a long digression, but I don't think #9 vs #9 is how to look at it. When the pitcher isn't in the lineup in the AL, it's because there's a DH in there - higher up in the batting order, so everyone shifts down (more or less), so you need to compare a slightly higher-quality bat at every spot in the order, or (more simply) just compare DH to pitcher for the aggregate difference. If anything, taking out the pitchers from the stats might not be enough - you need to assume a better than average bat, not just an average one, taking the pitcher's place in the AL.

Solid choice.

Betts is a great addition to any team, but since OF isn't an area of dire need for the Twins, I don't see moving heaven and earth to get him. If any acquiring team doesn't have a good shot at convincing Betts to sign a long term deal foregoing free agency, I can't see the asking price being quite that high. Moreover, taking on David Price at the same time is doing the Red Sox a great favor, in the full scheme of things, so that should bring down the price further. I want to remove both Sano and Balazovic from this package, and substitute lesser prospects. I expect the Red Sox could find a better trade partner, though. If the Twins really had no better use for their considerable payroll headroom in 2020, instead of Price they could offer to take on shorter-term dead money from the Red Sox, such as Pedroia's remaining contract (I'm unsure what Rusney Castillo's remaining obligations are). But I think there are better uses, so I don't really see how to make an attractive offer. Coming from the other direction, if I were doing an Offseason Blueprint for the Red Sox, Betts would be a guy I'd focus on as a cornerstone, unless he has made it clear he wants out of Boston when he's a free agent and would consider almost any other team. Yes, they want to get under the luxury tax threshold, and Betts will be above $30M when it's his turn after this year - but he's the kind of guy you consider it a privilege to pay the money to, and you work your budget around him when you're at the top echelon as the Red Sox are. I really don't get it, when I read the rumors, even though I think those rumors are well placed. All in all, Red Sox needs and Twins needs don't seem like a great fit to me. But I freely confess I don't really get the Red Sox's motivations.

By itself, Sano in place of Cron at 1B is a degradation and not an improvement in defense. The strengths Sano brings as a 3Bman are mainly negated over at first. Cron isn't fleet of foot but was pretty nimble. I don't envision Sano being good at scoops, based on how he reacts to rockets hit toward him at third; someone will need to handle those scattershot throws now to be coming from third instead of short. Two steps forward with the other moves proposed, one step back - which means not a very marked improvement, I'd be afraid.

I said nothing at all about Eddie that was negative. He was above league average at the important job of driving in baserunners.

You are kind. You might easily have said that the numbers were clearer than the verbiage.

Eddie led the team in RBI. By one. RBI is an opportunity stat. Here are the Twins' 14 busiest batters in 2019, sorted by number of plate appearances with runners in scoring position (RISP), with runners driven in (RBI-HR) in those instances along with BA and SLG (in other words, ignoring walks since they rarely lead to the RBI we want): 173 - Rosario - 71 / .340 / .538 146 - Polanco - 48 / .333 / .561 135 - Cruz - 54 / .368 / .575 121 - Cron - 48 / .299 / .598 116 - Kepler - 44 / .309 / .474 113 - Schoop - 25 / .176 / .422 110 - Sano - 32 / .245 / .649 109 - Gonzalez - 35 / .298 / .447 76 - Buxton - 32 / .282 / .634 71 - Garver - 27 / .344 / .770 63 - Arraez - 21 / .327 / .382 57 - Adrianza - 16 / .295 / .477 53 - Cave - 16 / .244 / .400 50 - Astudillo - 16 / .267 / .311 (Just to be clear - credit is given for runners driven in on a HR, just not the batter himself.) Eddie had fine efficiency in driving in runs when runners were on second and/or third, but so did Nelson and Byron (Buxton actually drove in a greater percentage than Rosario) at around the same 40% rate, while Max and Mitch weren't too far behind. Mostly what we are seeing and remembering is opportunity. Additional note: AL and MLB average was just under 30%, and as a team the Twins were above 33%, so overall our hitters did pretty well at driving in runners in scoring position, and only a few individuals (*cough*Schoop*cough*) lagged the league.

FWIW, MLB average SB / CS per team: 1979: 115 / 61 1989: 120 / 55 1999: 114 / 51 2009: 99/38 2019: 76 / 28 You're not imagining it.

One of those games that came down to whoever made the last mistake, and I'm glad it was them!

I'm almost more concerned about the negotiation psychology, of getting sucked into committing to one extra year at too high a price, with the rationalization that "eh, he'll probably have opted out by that time anyway."

Following only by the scoreboard, but I'm not thinking either side should be doing too much trash talking about the other's defense, quite yet.

To which the obvious rejoinder is, "then you are putting yourself at a negotiating disadvantage relative to other teams when targeting the very top-end talent, and you will have to compensate with more guaranteed money, or other inducements." I don't much like the opt-outs either, despite repeated arguments they don't really hurt, but they're a necessary tool.

More like the Dollar Store, one that happens to have a Maserati dealership in one of the departments, and a couple of guys selling $10M yachts in the back.

Jacob Wilson should have it so lucky. I have woken up in a sweat every night since the World Series ended, convinced that Tommy Herr has just been signed to replace Jonathan Schoop as our starting second baseman. My wife has talked me down each time ("Ash, the man is 63 years old, he doesn't even want a contract. It was just a dream." "Thanks, Mrs Ash.") but she's leaving on a business trip on Sunday, and I don't know what I'll do after tomorrow night if this follows the logical course and I start dreaming of Wally Backman as the next replacement.

"I'll take Comparisons I Did Not Expect To Hear Heading Into 2019, for $500, Alex."

He definitely had a very rocky stretch, 7 games, from mid-June to late-July, but then turned things around in his last game of July and was more than solid for those 10 games (aside from his eternally high pitch-counts) the rest of the way. I seem to recall something about a blister or bad fingernail. If so, other teams probably won't shy away too badly.

I'm 100% sure of that. I still don't think he shares the info widely. Probably only in heavily redacted form even to his clients. Only what he chooses to, to us fans. We get snippets, as you suggested, but it's not in the teams' collective interest to paint a clear picture. Neither if they were the high bidder and got snubbed, nor if they were second highest and "missed it by that much." None of these scenarios or a similar one is positive PR. it's only fitting, since none of the sides doing the negotiations offers transparency to any of the others. "This offer isn't going to get it done - I am expecting a higher offer than that this afternoon - but I can present your offer to my client and see what he says. I suggest you add that extra year, though." "We have a couple of other players in mind, if your client is really firm about that additional year." Etc etc yadda yadda. So I retain serious doubts we fans have enough information to know these things. The teams themselves may not know whether they were second or third or whatever, though they at least can compare the particulars of their own offer to what got accepted. I was responding mostly to the utter certainty - probably that word "Period" is what pushed past my inertia and prompted me to reply.